I agree

What struck me most about the Rasmussen and R2000/Kos polls was how Noriega could be doing so well with such low name recognition.  It just does not seem plausible, particularly in Texas.  Still, I bet it is somewhere in between, maybe Cornyn +12.  I am more willing to believe that Kentucky is close as (1) the state leans more to the Dem side than Texas; and (2) Lunsford is much more well known statewide than Noriega.  

My memory may not be entirely accurate, but in 2002 I seem to recall that polls throughout much of the election had the race between Cornyn and Kirk very tight -- with a very late poll showing Kirk only down a single point -- before Cornyn ultimately won by something like 12 percent.  My thinking is that Cornyn, mostly because he is such a lousy politican, leader, campaigner, and Senator, polls poorly before being put over the finish line by having the 'R' next to his name.  

I think this race is promising, but at this point it certainly goes way down the line of possible takeovers, probably around Kentucky.  Noriega is going to need raise a heckuva lot as Cornyn has banked several brinks trucks already.    

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by: Andy Dufresne @ Fri May 30, 2008 at 04:17:45 AM UTC

big undecided

They probably didn't push undecided voters hard.(in order to help themselves inflate the number) I bet that accounts for the difference in the private republican poll and the other polling companies.

Probably accounts for the fact that people don't know Noriega and are just voting straight party line in these polls but when you push the undecided I bet this number is within 5 pts.

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by: Conniver @ Fri May 30, 2008 at 05:14:59 AM UTC