Google Ads


Site Stats

MS-Sen-B: Musgrove Leads Wicker by Eight

by: James L.

Tue May 20, 2008 at 4:10 PM EDT


Hamilton Campaigns (5/15-18, likely voters):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 48
Roger Wicker (R-inc*): 40
(MoE: ±4%)

Musgrove's favorables are at 57-30, while the lesser-known Wicker is sitting at 42-14.  In the 1st Congressional District, Wicker's homebase (and one picked up by Democrat Travis Childers last week), Wicker only leads by 48-43.  Even the presidential race is reasonably close:

Like the 1st District race, party labels will not appear on the ballot beside Wicker and Musgrove's name, because the November race is technically a special election to fill Republican Trent Lott's seat. That factor could help Musgrove win voters who are also planning to vote for Republican Sen. John McCain, who is winning the state 50%-41%, according to the poll. President Bush won Mississippi 59%-39% in 2004.
James L. :: MS-Sen-B: Musgrove Leads Wicker by Eight
Tags: , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
MS-Sen-B: Musgrove Leads Wicker by Eight | 29 comments
my first reaction
hooooolyyyyyyy shit.... lol Wow... The GOP must have just crapped themselves when they saw this poll! Glad I decided to become a democrat back in 04... lol Or I would really be hating politics right now! lol
No it's a Dem internal poll
I doubt they are sweating.
[ Parent ]
Even still...
While most internal polls are slightly tilted one way or the other, I seriously doubt that they added 15 points for Musgrove. The fact remains that even with a bias, and even with a margin of error, this is a lot closer than anyone would have really thought a Senate race in Mississippi would have been four years ago!
[ Parent ]
I bet they are sweating
Even allowing for the fact it is a partisan poll means they are at worst tied and the Repubs financial position doesn't allow for all these second-tier races opening up. With all these new polls (NC, TX, AK, ME, KS, MS) I'm ready to increase my prediction from 5-7 to 6-8.
[ Parent ]
Survey USA shows Hagan just 4 points Behind Dole
A new SurveyUSA poll in North Carolina shows Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) narrowly edging Kay Hagan (D), 50% to 46%.

Key findings: Among white voters, Dole leads by 24; among blacks, Hagan leads by 66. Blacks make-up 20% of the electorate in SurveyUSA's turnout model today. If blacks vote in larger numbers, the contest is closer. Among men, Dole leads by 13; among women, Hagan leads by 3. Among voters age 18 to 49, Dole leads by 13; among voters 50+, Hagan leads by 5.

To those that thought that this race was unwinnable or nearly so because Easley, Richard Moore and Brad Miller and Greer Martin passed on this race, please note that Hagan LEADS among women.  Would that be happening with a male nominee??  

With Obama at the top of the ticket and TWO women just below the top ,running for Governor and Senate, Democratic turnout could be huge in NC.  

[ Parent ]
Awesome.
One has to think Obama will help bring out more African-American voters. And a few million from the national party will help close the gap.  
[ Parent ]
Yes, the African-American it means everything in MS
Mississippi is so polarized racially when it comes to politics it isn't funny.  I believe statewide Democratic candidates only need something like 25% of the white vote to win, considering blacks vote around 90% Dem.  Unfortunately we never seem to hit that number.  However a slight uptick in black turnout can put us over the top in races like the Musgrove-Wicker.  
[ Parent ]
this is exactly the reason why
musgrove can win this race; to win in the south, the democrats have to split the white vote and take all the black vote; i believe that musgrove will do very well in the white vote statewide(enough to make this a real race)and take ALL the black vote(with obama drawing out the blacks in record numbers to boot)
[ Parent ]
I posted it in another thread: McCain - 51 Obama - 43
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

About what I expected for the Presidential race.

[ Parent ]
SUSA begs the AA vote at 20%.
I think that's at least six points pessimistic.
[ Parent ]
Ya I think Brad Miller is waiting for 2010
to take on Burr for the other Senate seat.  Ironically it now appears he would have had a better shot this year against Dole.  Oh well, no guts no glory.  Hagen is our nominee and looking good.
[ Parent ]
This poll
Has to have about a +20 Musgrove inflation for the NRSC to breathe easy. I don't think its that off.
[ Parent ]
A Dem internal poll is pretty much worthless
The Kos commissioned poll will be much more accurate.
not really true
As Ambinder pointed out, why would the DSCC release a +8 if it was so far from reality?  It not only inflates expectations early in the game, but if/when a non-partisan poll comes out and shows a blow-out for Wicker, it makes the DSCC look stupid.

Insider polls for commmittees are usually inflated by 5ish, never by 15ish.

Figure this race is even right now, and Barack flips a solid 8%ish in November from one column to the other.  One more of these polls and Musgrove and MS get added to Begich in AK, Franken in MN, Novick/Merkeley in OR and Allen in ME as solid 2nd tier senate seat legitimate toss-up opportunities, and that's not even considering TX, ID and all the others that we love to hope and hope to love :)

This is good news.

[ Parent ]
Why?
It serves no purpose when the DSCC is trying to decide where to spend money. They seem biased because no one ever releases bad news.
[ Parent ]
we'll see if the DSCC
puts its MONEY where its mouth is; IF the dscc puts REAL money into this race; then we will know for sure that we are competitive here
Well Musgrove needs to step it up too
His fundraising has been pathetic compared to Wicker's.
[ Parent ]
well
when the Q2 reports come out, we'll def. know a little more; my point here is simple(which i pointed out during the childers race), ALL signs coming out of MS this cycle have been good ones for our party; this is just one more good sign for us; like you, i look forward to the kos poll as well BUT for us to know FOR SURE that we have a race here is simple; IF the dscc puts REAL money into this race, then we know that we have a chance
[ Parent ]
Cash
It will help the quicker the top four are closed out - if the DSCC doesn't have to spend on VA, NM, NH and CO with its financial clout it can go all in to OR, ME, MN, AK, MS, NC, TX, OK, NE, ID, KS etc. The NRSC won't have enough funds to spread around and a comfortable Obama win could result in a mirror image of 1980 and Dems reaching 60+ seats with ease.
[ Parent ]
exactly
i have advocated on this site exactly what you post here; i think those 4(with keeping a watchful eye on the CO race, even though i think mark udall will win there maybe 54-46%)should left to the locals(for now), while the dscc looks to expand the map to the other races you mention
[ Parent ]
indeed.
It will be good to have another Democratic Senator from the Deep South. Miss Mary of Lousiana was getting lonely! lol
[ Parent ]
SORRY ABOUT THE THREAD JACKING
but i could not resist; kos is reporting that the gopers(GREAT HOPE)against john kerrey in MASS may not have the VALID signatures(10,000) to make the ballot!!!!!!!!!! apparently there is a primary opponent with enough valid sigs AND this opponent is more than willing to challenge this; the gopers picked the fellow that lost the special election to nikki tsongas last year and now he MIGHT NOT MAKE THE BALLOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THE GOPERS ARE LITERALLY BECOMING A JOKE BEFORE OUR EYES............
I know repubs are in bad shape in MA
But I assumed there were at least 10,000 of them there.
[ Parent ]
Even Alan Keyes won't run in MA?

[ Parent ]
If kos's poll show's simular results
and Musgrove at least raises a million in this quarter this is a very good pickup opportunity.

Musgrove is clearly in a good position and MS is a cheap media market. If he can at least only get out-spend 2-1 then the DSCC will fill the gap and use the same play book as the DCCC did with Childers.

We could have a corporate Joe proof 60 seat majority!

Too good to be true.
I'm waiting for independent confirmation before I get too excited here. Even if it wasn't an internal poll, it could be an outlier.  
There have been other polls
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner polling showed Musgrove ahead 48% to 34% back in 12/2-5/08. Though I tihnk that Greenberg is a internal poll as well (not sure though).
Research 2000 did a poll back in 12/10-12/07 and saw Musgrove trailing 39% to 47%.
I'm curious does anyone know if Wicker will face a primary challenge?
[ Parent ]
IIRC
only wicker and musgrove on the ballot in november WITHOUT ANY party designation(musgrove name first as well)which will help musgrove to a small degree
[ Parent ]
That R2K poll was faulty
Its crosstabs had the black vote at 9% -- which is beyond lowballing it in a state with a 36 or 37% black population.  If that poll was weighted properly, Musgrove would've been ahead.
[ Parent ]
MS-Sen-B: Musgrove Leads Wicker by Eight | 29 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox