About the margin I expected

15 points is reasonable.  Unfortunately I fear 55 Johanns 45 Kleeb is our best end outcome.  Barring some major gaffe by Johanns this race won't be in play.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sun May 18, 2008 at 17:47:24 PM UTC

Uphill, but you're too pessimistic

Kleeb lost NE-03 55/45. That's an R + 24 district. Granted, Johanns is more well-known and well-liked than Adrian Smith, but that's a fantastic over-performance by Scott in his home district.

With NE-01 and NE-02 potentially in play at the Presidential level, and both in the range of possibility at the Rep. level, Kleeb has a shot here. NE-01 and NE-02 are R + 12, R + 9, respectively. As we have seen this year, in open races, which this Senate race is, those kind of districts are on the table.

This is winnable.  

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by: Ron @ Sun May 18, 2008 at 17:55:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

PVI's can be inflated.

For example, is a D+5 district in a state Democrats never spend money in, the same as a D+5 district Democrats spend competitively against Republicans?  No.  So the R+24 is probably inflated since Dems never spend money in Nebraska.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sun May 18, 2008 at 18:44:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Indeed, too pessimistic

Chuck Hagel is the ONLY Republican to be ELECTED to the Senate from Nebraska since 1973.  [ and he's a maverick, which Johanns isn't]

The other Nebraska seat, currently held by Ben Nelson, has not been won by a Republican since 1970.

The seat that Kleeb is running for was held by a Democrat from 1978 through 1996. Hagel has held it since then.

That means that of the last 11 senate elections, Democrats have won 9.  

Also consider that Kleeb probably still lacks name recognition in the 1st and 2nd districts, whereas virtually everyone should know Johanns. Isn't it true that Kleeb hasn't even run any ads yet?  

40% to start is respectable, IMO.  

Uphill, sure.  Winnable with a good campaign and respectable funding?  Very well could be.  

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by: vicupstate @ Sun May 18, 2008 at 23:37:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Considering that....

Hagel won in 2002 with over 80% of the vote, even with a Democrat on the ballot. So 40% is nothing to be ashamed about.

I am curious about the electoral college system in Nebraska. Is it something like if one party gets the popular vote, but the other party gets the vote in the districts then the electoral votes are spread out between the two?

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by: Gatenmaru @ Mon May 19, 2008 at 00:10:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah

Description here:

With the district method, a state divides itself into a number of districts, allocating one of its state-wide electoral votes to each district.  The winner of each district is awarded that district's electoral vote, and the winner of the state-wide vote is then awarded the state's remaining two electoral votes.

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by: James L. @ Mon May 19, 2008 at 00:14:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

the districts though

If I recall, are simply the actual boundries for the congressional districts, correct. Its an interesting system. I like it, yet hate it at the same time. lol it seems far more fair than winner take all since in many cases the final vote for the state is extremely close, however, it would lead to even more gerrymandering of congressional districts around the country. Gerrymandering is bad enough now, but imagine if the Presidential race depended on it. lol Scary stuff! lol

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by: Venslor @ Mon May 19, 2008 at 00:58:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gerrymandering

I think all congressional districts should be drawn up by computer without only population numbers and the goal should be to have the shortest borders. It would be the end of gerrymandering.  

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by: C.S.Strowbridge @ Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:39:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

but would really screw

over Democrats.  Democrats automatically get the short end of the districting stick since our numbers are mainly highly concentrated areas and if we create districts that are the smallest lines as possible, that will box in D+20 districts and leave R+1-4 districts all around it and give the Republicans an opportunity there.

I've always liked what Minnesota and Illinois have done.  Illinois divides the city of Chicago out into 4-5 different CD's to spread out the liberalness to create solid D seats.  In Minnesota, we put Minneapolis as an anchor in one district, and St. Paul in another.  The Republicans hate it and try to put them in the same CD every time we need to redistrict but seperating them creates 2 solid Democrat seats instead of 1 solid Democrat with 1 complete toss-up.

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by: Andrew @ Mon May 19, 2008 at 14:55:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My Old College Roommate....

....is a native Nebraskan and as hard-core Republican as they come.  He told me he believes Johanns will have a hard time with Kleeb, particularly if Obama's "out with the old, in with the new" message has any resonance at all in Nebraska this year.  My gut tells me you're right, but I nonetheless hope the DSCC keeps close tabs on this race.

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by: Mark @ Sun May 18, 2008 at 18:09:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I Would Have Thought....

....NE-01, land of Lincoln, would be the more winnable electoral vote for Obama than would NE-02.  The needle hasn't seemed to move at all regarding the political attitudes in Omaha in my lifetime, so I'd be surprised to see it transform this quickly into Obama territory.  I'm definitely eager to see Nebraska polls showing district breakdowns.

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by: Mark @ Sun May 18, 2008 at 18:07:09 PM UTC

Well...

Omaha used to be a huge Democratic stronghold. In the last couple of years, Democrats have regained their stranglehold on the Douglas County Courthouse. They're in a position to take back the Douglas County Board with a race in my district. And Jim Esch, a relative unknown, came within 9% of Lee Terry in his race in 2006. This year, Esch is back and Terry is scared.

Omaha is far more demographically favorable to Obama. The district is about 10% African American, but black voters rarely turn out. The city of Omaha is narrowly Democratic, and it's the suburbs and the military town of Bellevue that turn it Republican.

While Lincoln is more liberal than Omaha, NE-01 contains many conservative strongholds like Norfolk and Fremont that make it almost impossible for a Democrat to win.

If Obama puts some field efforts here (he'll already be running ads for the Western Iowa market), he can seriously pick off that vote.  

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by: DaveSund @ Sun May 18, 2008 at 20:05:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Need to close the gap...

Need to close the gap to single digits to get the GOP to really panic and start spending money here. That is certainly doable, and every dollar they spend here is one less they spend in a tighter race. Hell, they might even send big guns like Bush and Cheney to raising money there, which can only hurt Johanns at this point.  

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by: C.S.Strowbridge @ Sun May 18, 2008 at 18:10:25 PM UTC

FEC 4/23

Scott Kleeb v. Mike Johanns
Total Raised --- $399,000 v. $2,166,000
Cash On Hand - $243,000 v. $1,357,000

First thing we can do if we want to close this 15 point gap, is to close the financial gap.  Johanns has fundraised 5X as much as Kleeb, and he has closer to 6X the Cash on Hand.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sun May 18, 2008 at 18:49:07 PM UTC

I don't know how much he's raised...

But I know there was a one-week period right after Raimondo broke the Millionaire's threshold that Kleeb raised more than $100K.

I think he'll post a strong quarter.  

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by: DaveSund @ Sun May 18, 2008 at 20:28:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah. I remember Dailykos's 20K fundraiser for Kleeb

happened post 4/23.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sun May 18, 2008 at 20:39:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

One race Rasmussen has not polled

IS Oklahoma.  I'm really interested to see where this race standds.  I have a feeling it may show Rice by much less than is assumed (maybe 8-12 points).  Inhofe has never been popular and Rice is a decent candidate.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sun May 18, 2008 at 19:29:30 PM UTC

agreed

even mccain would have to keep his distance from a global warming denier of inhofe's magnitude PLUS rice has done as good a job as ANY dem candidate this cycle(along with kay hagan in NC)

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by: jackdawkins @ Sun May 18, 2008 at 19:40:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

"This race is definitely one of the longer shots of 2008,"

I wouldn't say that. Kleeb is a very strong candidate who will be able to raise the money to go toe to toe with Johanns. He has already run one strong campaign and is only going to improve on that.

Kleeb and Johanns are facing off at a debate in a few weeks. Johanns is not taking anything for granted. This is a real challenge. I'm not saying this is easy but this is a very winnable race and is the kind of race I think both the netroots and the DSCC will get involved in. It's a cheap state to run a campaign in.

I think we can and will win.

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by: Populista @ Mon May 19, 2008 at 00:00:38 AM UTC

This race is rated #13 on my list.

That is what I would call a longer shot.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Mon May 19, 2008 at 00:34:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

we'll see where it rates on the list

that matters; IF the dscc decides to spend money here, then we know that kleeb has made their list, then it matters

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by: jackdawkins @ Mon May 19, 2008 at 01:42:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think they will

I predict Scott Kleeb will replace Chuck Hagel in the United States Senate representing Nebraska.

With Kleeb's past performances, political team and the political climate I am ready to predict that. In the end the votes will decide though. I think all the doubters will be pleasantly surprised.  

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by: Populista @ Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:42:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

i hope you are correct(i think kleeb would be great)

BUT my point is simple; NO ONE on this site knows numbers as good as chuck schumer(or ANY other site for that matter);IF the dscc decides to spend money on this race, then we know that this race MATTERS

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by: jackdawkins @ Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:58:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is a third tier race

I know Kleeb is a darling of a lot of people, and his showing in one of the top 10 most conservative districts in the country was great, this is not a race the DSCC should dump big money into unless they get better feelings of it.  

Johanns is really well liked there.  Two things Kleeb needs to pound away is (1) Johanns' connection to the administration; and (2) the fact that Johanns repeatedly leaves jobs mid-way through.  Latest case in point: leaving USDOA before the Farm Bill was even ratified.  

I really do not like our chances here.  Like most of you, I was very disappointed that Kerrey passed on this race as he is a longtime favorite of mine.  This is an interesting poll, but I think this race is fairly unwinnable.  

Btw, Rasmussen needs to poll Mississippi.  I believe right now Musgrove would have a lead, and not at all because of the MS-01 results but because he has a lot of statewide name recognition while Wicker has not yet been in the Senate long.  That race intrigues me a lot more!

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by: Andy Dufresne @ Mon May 19, 2008 at 01:16:35 AM UTC