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My Trip to Washington, DC, (Districts We Need to Defend in 2008!)

by: RED HOT BLUE BOY

Mon Jan 08, 2007 at 4:22 PM EST


RED HOT BLUE BOY :: My Trip to Washington, DC, (Districts We Need to Defend in 2008!)
One of things that I love doing on my all too infrequent trips to Washington, DC; along with networking, kicking Rethugs to the curb whenever possible, is being able to pick up "Roll Call" and "The Hill" for free.  One of the articles in the 1/4/06 edition of "Roll Call" was an article from Rep. Tom Cole, the new head of the RCCC.  One of the things that he said was that the RCCC had a debt of around $16 million and that was more than they had realized previously (SNARK WARNING) couldn't have happened to a nicer group of gals and guys.  He also talks about 60 congressional districts that president bush carried twice that are currently help by Democrats.  I won't bother you with 39 of them, because they are held by long term, incumbent dedmocrats with large voting percentages.  But there are 21 districts; held by Democrats, who won with under 55%.  The list is as follows:

TX 22nd  Nick Lampson  52%
PA 10th  Christopher Carney  53%
IA 9th  Baron Hill  50%
KS 2nd  Nancy Boyda  51%
LA 3rd  Charlie Melancon  55%
NC 11th  Heath Schuler  54%
IL 8th  Melissa Bean  51%
IN 2nd  Joe Donnelly  54%
GA 8th  Jim Marshall  51%
WI 8th  Steve Kagen  51%
AZ 5th  Harry Mitchell  51%
CA 11th  Jerry McNerney  53%
FL 16th  Tim Mahoney  49%
NY 19th  John Hall  51%
PA 4TH  Jason Altmire  52%
AZ 8th  Gabrielle Giffords  54%
NY 24th  Michael Acuri  54%
MN 1st  Tim Walz  53%
NH 1st  Carol Shea-Porter  52%
IA 3rd  Lenoard Boswell  52%
OR 5th  Darlene Hooley  54%

These are prime cases of defense first along with the districts that Kerry took in 2004 that have elected rethugs.

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I already
posted a diary that ranks seats by vulnerability.  according to my list, which is based on pvi, 2004 incumbent or party performance and 2006 incumbent performance, the following democratic seats are the most vulnerable:

1 WI-08 (KAGEN-D) R+4
2 KS-02 (BOYDA-D) R+7
3 IN-09 (HILL-D) R+7
4 FL-16 (MAHONEY-D) R+2
5 PA-10 (CARNEY-D) R+8
6 AZ-05 (MITCHELL-D) R+4
7 TX-22 (LAMPSON-D) R+15
8 NY-19 (HALL-D) R+1

10 IL-08 (BEAN-D) R+5
11 TX-23 (RODRIGUEZ-D) R+4
12 PA-04 (ALTMIRE-D) R+3
13 NY-20 (GILLIBRAND-D) R+3
14 NC-11 (SCHULER-D) R+7

17 CA-11 (McNERNEY-D) R+3

19 MN-01 (WALZ-D) R+1

21 IN-02 (DONNELLY-D) R+4

I list sixteen, as Republicans need sixteen seats in order to wrest the majority from the Democrats.



Learn more about Bobby Jindal.


Most of these districts
Most of these districts did not vote for Bush by a large margin.  Also remember that Bush was about 15 points more popular during the 2004 election and would almost certainly lose big in most of these districts if the election were won today.

Also, what nobody seems to mention is the fact that in 1994, when the Republicans picked up 52 seats, at least half of those seats were in districts that Clinton carried in both 1992 and 1996 and most of those Republicans survived. 


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