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Date Set for NY State Senate Special Election

by: lipris

Sat Jan 06, 2007 at 1:41 PM EST


(So the election is one month from today. I think this one is going to consume a lot of my interest. - promoted by DavidNYC)

Adapted from a post at the albany project

According to Newsday, the special election to replace outgoing state Senator Michael Balboni will take place on Feb 6th. The GOP has chosen Nassau County Clerk and former Assemby Member Maureen O'Connell and the dems will choose a candidate on Monday.

It's interesting to me that Tom DiNapoli, who was often mentioned as being the candidate with the right of first refusal in this race, isn't being mentioned in media reports at all anymore. I guess he really does want to be Comptroller. As for the other dem hopefuls, Newsday lists them thusly:

Jacobs said he will head a screening committee that Saturday will interview four Democrats seeking the party's nomination: legislators Roger Corbin of Westbury and Craig Johnson of Port Washington; East Williston activist Matthew Cuomo, nephew of former Gov. Mario Cuomo and cousin of state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo; and North Hempstead Town Clerk Michelle Schimel.

The screening committee will submit its recommendation to the executive committee Monday night, Jacobs said.

lipris :: Date Set for NY State Senate Special Election
Everything I've heard in the past two weeks points to Nassau County legislator Craig Johnson as being the new favorite. Johnson seems to be a pretty progressive candidate. (here is his  official site and campaign site)

Over at the albany project, guest blogger and all around bad ass Scott in NJ has some more relevant details about the state of the players and district.

Republicans have nominated Nassau County Clerk Maureen O'Connell, who reportedly has the Independence and Conservative lines as well.  The Democrats will pick their candidate on Monday; Nassau County Legislator Craig Johnson is the front-runner for that nomination.  Johnson has run on the WFP line in the past and he will probably get row E against O'Connell.  Insiders suggest that the parties could spend up to $4 million on the race.

As of December, the Senate Republican Campaign Committee had $580,490.96 on hand; the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee had $143,166.31.  O'Connell can expect substantial support from the Nassau County Republican Committee, which has $1,359,471.43 on hand.  The County Democrats spent all of their cash on the 2006 campaign.


Tom Suozzi had $560,190.76 left over after his primary run, but he might have spread some of that money out among '06 general election candidates.  FWIW, Johnson supported Spitzer over Suozzi in '06.  Spitzer-Paterson 2006 still had $5,529,993.05 in the coffers after the general election.


Democrats hold a 38-35 registration edge in the district.

Looks like we're gettin' it on a month from today. As soon as the dems pick their candidate we'll be covering that as well.

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Him...
More info can be found Here.

The Albany Project. The best damned blog about New York politics.

It looks like all of Johnson's Legislative District (11)
is contained with State Senate District 7. http://www.latfor.st...

Impressive Resume.

(-8.50/-7.44) "Real Democrats don't make promises they can't keep." Dr. Howard Dean


[ Parent ]
true.
according to scott it makes up inly 22% of the district, however.

"joke about the rapture here"

it's time:the albany project



[ Parent ]
Thanks Lipris for sparing me that statistical research
I eyeballed it at about a quarter. My question for you locals as NY & Nassau Boe's are pretty shabby on Election Results: Any idea if Kerry would have carried the 7th? And, would Johnson's homebase of Port Washington be more Dem, Gop or Swing? I believe O'Connell is from East Williamston & think that is fairly red?

(-8.50/-7.44) "Real Democrats don't make promises they can't keep." Dr. Howard Dean

[ Parent ]
honestly? i know next to nothing about the
district. and you're right about the BOE. it's certainly less than helpful. fortunately, there are folks much smarter than myself over at TAP.

we're gonna try to make such guessing work a thing of the past though. we aren't officially launching this until monday, but here's a sneak peak at TAPopedia. it was inspired by both dKosopedia and swing state's race tracker.

sshhhh.

"joke about the rapture here"

it's time:the albany project



[ Parent ]
Me thinks the term is "Snap" or
"You Go___________"(insert gender preference here).

(-8.50/-7.44) "Real Democrats don't make promises they can't keep." Dr. Howard Dean

[ Parent ]
Kerry carried the 7th
I'm pretty sure. Balboni has been able to buck a fairly sizable blue shift, by delivering a lot of constituent services, and be being mostly moderate.
Craig's home district has a lot of independent voters, and they make the difference.  If this were to be a November election it would be a cake walk. Special elections generally attract a more partisan base.
Port Washington is Johnson's base and the people here really like him. Port tends to have a heavier turnout in most elections, and if that holds he should be able to win. Most of the spending will come from GOP trying to hold the seat, which will cause the Dems to respond.

[ Parent ]
Johnson-D certainly did well in his last run for office
It would be interesting to see how O'Connell-R did in the SS-07 District given her 52.95% win Countywide,rather than Kerry's performance:

2003 Nassau County Election Results

Nassau Legislature -- 66 of 66 precincts reporting (100%)
District 11
  Craig Johnson* (D-I)  8,661 71% 
  Mitchell Winn (R)  3,458 29%

 

(-8.50/-7.44) "Real Democrats don't make promises they can't keep." Dr. Howard Dean

[ Parent ]
Well, given the fact
That the Dems have a 3 point registration advantage, first of all, in a Long Island district, where like in Upstate New York and NYC Suburbs, are quite inflated from their actual numbers. I can't tell you what the exact numbers were, but a 3 pt registration for Long Island is very favorable.

Of course I could be wrong, because after all federal NY-13 has a Dem registration advantage, but they voted for Clinton, Gore and Bush(2nd time)... And Statin Island has always had really quirky politics. But who knows.


[ Parent ]
Her...
More info can be found Here.

The Albany Project. The best damned blog about New York politics.

We'll get a chance to see....
...what a $4 million, one month state senate race looks like. Of course, the media market is NYC and you can burn through $4 million real quick there.

The Albany Project. The best damned blog about New York politics.

NY-SS-07 Its Offically Craig Johnson-D Nassau-11
chosen as the Democratic Candidate.

http://www.thealbany...

(-8.50/-7.44) "Real Democrats don't make promises they can't keep." Dr. Howard Dean



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