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Presidential Polling - Nevada

by: X Stryker

Wed Jan 03, 2007 at 10:33 PM EST


ARG, Nevada, Dec. 19-23, MoE +/- 4%, 600 likely Democratic Caucus goers (545 Democrats and 55 no party).

Clinton 37%
Obama 12%
Kerry 9%
Edwards 8%
Clark 4%
Dodd 2%
Gravel 1%
Kucinich 1%
Richardson 1%
Vilsack 1%
Biden 1%
Undecided 23%
X Stryker :: Presidential Polling - Nevada
No one's campaigned in Nevada yet, but so far it looks like Richardson has yet to display any regional appeal here. It's tough enough to accurately identify caucus goers in Iowa, a larger state with top significance - Nevada caucus polling should probably be taken with a grain of salt. I have no other recent poll for this state to compare with.

Note that Nevada still has a mucher higher proportion of undecideds than Iowa. So far, though, Hillary is the one to beat in Nevada by more than 3 to 1 over any other challenger. Out of the 4 states polled by ARG in this batch, this is Edwards' worst performance and Kerry's best. It's also Clark's best, which isn't saying much. Obama places second, but has a lot of work cut out for him here. Vilsack is not credible outside Iowa.

GOP numbers,:

Giuliani 31%
McCain 25%
Gingrich 22%
Romney 4%
Undecided 18%
(Less than one percent chose Thompson, Pataki, Hunter, Huckabee, Hagel, Gillmore, or Brownback)

Best state for Giuliani and Gingrich. Worst state for McCain and Romney.

Poll
Which of the first six contests will be most favorable to Hillary Clinton?
Iowa
Nevada
New Hampshire
South Carolina
Delaware
Missouri

Results

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The Service Workers Union.....
....in Las Vegas would dominate the small Democratic caucus in Nevada, and my money is that John Edwards will be their man, particularly if he gets a strong showing in Iowa.  There's a real possibility of John Edwards going two-for-two in the early primaries given the geography of the new schedule.  Of course, Obama's likely entry in the race would likely stop John Edwards' momentum by denying him South Carolina.

The new primary scedual
Is pure gold for Edwards, should Obama not get in the frey. Without Obama there is a very very strong chance of him going three for three. But at this point everything should be taken with a grain of salt. A lot can change in the comming months prior to the Iowa caucus.

progressive, NY-8 (home), PA-7 (college)

[ Parent ]
Latinos
Mark, what about the latino vote? Wouldn't they be a significant proportion in Nevada, and if so, which candidate would appeal to them most? Aside from Richardson, that is, who seems to have no traction.

Delaware Liberal - biggest and best blog in Delaware.

[ Parent ]
I Would Have to Know More.....
.....about the demographics of the service workers' union before I can speculate on the role of the Latino vote.  My guess is that the Vegas service workers are disproportionately Hispanic to the state of Nevada at large, meaning Latinos would likely be a serious factor in this caucus.  If this is true (and if the service workers union puts all its might behind Edwards as early speculation indicates), it poses a unique problem for Edwards.  Here's a candidate running on a platform of rolling back poverty in America, yet his victory may be dependent on Latino voters in the Southwest who appear to be strong advocates of McCain-Kennedy immigration reforms.  The tough irony for Edwards in this dynamic is that these reforms, particularly the imposition of a "guest worker program", are a deliberate means of codifying massive growth in American poverty.

The bottom line is that Edwards will have to pick a side on immigration in the year ahead, and whichever side he chooses will likely undermine is electability among key constituencies he's depending upon.  The industrial unions in Iowa will lose interest in him if he's viewed as carrying water for Bush's cheap labor plan, but the service workers union in Nevada have an entirely different set of priorities.  I'll be very interested in seeing how the slick lawyer can finesse his way out of that quagmire if it comes to that.


[ Parent ]

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