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Sunday Evening Round-up

by: James L.

Sun Mar 16, 2008 at 10:20 PM EDT


  • IL-14: Novak claims that "important Illinois Republicans are urging" Jim Oberweis to drop out of the general election battle for Dennis Hastert's old seat.  While not surprising, given Oberweis' disastrous showing last week, such pleas are not likely to have any effect on the stubborn Oberweis, other than further damaging his credibility.

    It doesn't help when other GOP candidates in Illinois, such as state Rep. Aaron Schock in IL-18, are giving quips such as this one:

    "Anybody in Illinois who knows Jim Oberweis knows that was not a referendum on the Republican Party; it was a referendum on Jim Oberweis," Schock said. "The Republicans didn't lose that race; Jim Oberweis lost that race.

    "The people that knew him best, liked him least."

  • MN-03: In what is shaping to be a surprising upset, Ashwin Madia, a young attorney and Iraq veteran, is closing in on the DFL endorsement for the nomination to contest the open seat of retiring GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad.  At conventions across the district yesterday, Madia won many more delegates than his rival, state Senator and once-presumptive front runner Terri Bonoff.  Both Madia and Bonoff have pledged to abide by the DFL endorsement, but the math is looking very bleak for Bonoff; Madia is less than 10 delegates away from the 95 he needs to clinch the endorsement.

    An internal poll commissioned by the Bonoff campaign showed Bonoff beating GOP state Rep. Eric Paulsen by a 44%-40% margin in a hypothetical general election match-up, while Madia trails by 43%-40%.  In any event, this will be a top tier contest.

  • New Mexico: In a slate of "preprimary" nominating conventions, candidates for federal office in both parties had to cross a 20% threshold to make it onto the primary ballot.  As a result, some of the House primaries are a bit clearer.

    • NM-01: Martin Heinrich won 56% of the preprimary vote to Michelle Lujan-Grisham's 28%.

      On the GOP side of the aisle, Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White won 85% of the vote, leaving him unopposed on the primary ballot.

    • NM-02: Democrat Bill McCamley won 48.8% of the vote to Harry Teague's 36.5%.  No other candidates qualified for the primary ballot.

      Rancher and businessman Aubrey Dunn, Jr. won the GOP vote with the support of 30% of delegates.  Businessmen C. Earl Greer and Ed Tinsley both also qualified for the ballot with 24% each.

    • NM-03: Ben R. Luján won 40% of delegates, and will face off against former Senate candidate Don Wiviott, who qualified for the primary ballot with 30% of the vote.

  • MI-09: Jack Kevorkian is running for Congress as an independent against Republican incumbent Joe Knollenberg and Democratic challenger Gary Peters.  Oy.

  • MD-01: The biggest joke of all?  The so-called "moderate" Republican Main Street Partnership is planning on endorsing Andy Harris, the Club For Growth nutcase who successfully dislodged anti-war GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest last month.  Gilchrest, on the other hand, plans to administer a written exam to any candidate seeking his endorsement:

    Included in that test would be questions about the history of the Middle East over the past 200 years, the economic and ecological history of the Chesapeake Bay, the importance of paying attention to unemployment and various other subjects, Gilchrest said.

    "I will endorse someone that has knowledge, integrity, is competent and sees the world in a panoramic manner in all its complexities and not through a bent straw," Gilchrest said.

    Citing a retired Marine Corps general who has been highly critical of the Bush administration's decision to go to Iraq, Gilchrest went on to say that "we must stop promoting incompetence in return for party loyalty."

  • IN-07: Andre Carson may be the newest kid on the block in Washington, but he still has a potentially raucous primary contest to clear in May before he gets too comfortable:

    State Rep. David Orentlicher officially launched his campaign Wednesday alongside Martin Luther King Jr.'s nephew, Derek King, while former health commissioner Woody Myers was set to launch television advertisements.

    State Rep. Carolene Mays will also pose a tough challenge to the newest congressman.

  • AZ-03: This looks like fun.  Former state Rep. Steve May has filed to run against John Shadegg in the Republican primary.  May has previously pledged to spend $1 million on the bid.
James L. :: Sunday Evening Round-up
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LA-06 April 5 Saturday Runoff betw electable Democrat and another
LA-06 Democratic (closed party primary - registered Dems only) runoff between former DA Don Cazayoux and Michael Jackson is Saturday , April 5, less than 3 weeks. Incumbent R resigned, triggering the special election.  Democrats have a chance to take another Republican seat, but ONLY if one of the two Democrats win the runoff - Cazayoux. He is more conservative than the other Democrat (Michael Jackson), but almost no one thinks that a liberal African-American candidate with little money (Jackson) can win in a majority white, Deep South conservative Republican District.  It is really important to nominate an electable Democrat because the Republican, Woody Jenkins, has had ties to David Duke and the farthest right wing of the far right Louisiana Republican Party.  Most assume Jenkins can beat Jackson without too much effort, but that Jenkins is so far right he could well lose to Democrat Cazayoux (backed by local unions and favored by DCCC).  Via ActBlue, I donated to Cazayoux yesterday.  It's really important to try to stop Woody Jenkins, who secretly bought KKK'er and Natl Association for Advancement of White People founder David Duke's mailing list when he ran for office before.

Saturday roundup
I just wanted to comment that this site is wonderful. There is no other way of finding out what is going on nationally like it. Keep up the great work.

wow, bonoff
looked like such a sure thing in mn-3. while i liked her, this Madia looks great. young indian with a clearly fascinating legal background/experience.

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams

we lose MN 3 if Madia is the nominee
Bonoff is our best bet at holding it.  Let's remember, that this is a swing district -- she is an elected official with name recognition and could likely hold this seat for many years to come.  While I'm all for "progressive, grassroots" candidates -- they arent always the best fit.  Take Carol Shea-Porter for example -- she is one of our biggest worries for November. I'd rather have fewer of her come 2010.

Obama
Minnesota went heavily for Obama and with the turnout for caucusing having tripled this past time, it is very obvious where all of these new votes went.  Obama and Madia both seem like the outside candidate running against the establishment.  Obama should have coattails to help here.

[ Parent ]
It was a caucus however
so, it probably doesn't apply similarly to the GE.

[ Parent ]
Strongly disagree.
Look, the proof is almost always in the pudding in these situations.  If a grassroots progressive is able to beat an establishment Democrat in a large, important, targeted primary, when the whole establishment is paying attention, it means two things: that grassroots progressive is a hell of a lot stronger than your garden-variety "community activist" wacko, and, that establishment candidate is a lot more clueless and inept and badly- or over-managed than an average high-quality establishment candidate is.  And if both of those are true, then the party is better off with the grassroots progressive in the general than it would have been with the incompetent establishment candidate.  End of story.

Plenty of examples exist.  John Yarmuth was not a candidate the DCCC wanted, but he'll be safe for years now.  Shea-Porter whomped the candidate the DCCC wanted, and if he couldn't beat Shea-Porter, he wouldn't have had the acumen to beat Bradley.  McNerney had to beat down an establishment candidate.  Duckworth barely beat a grassroots candidate that the netroots never really believed was real, and then went on to get walloped.  

Obama is proving that he can beat McCain, by beating Clinton.  Right now I'm skeptical of Novick, but if he beats Merkley, then I will be an absolute believer that he can run a real challenge to Smith too.  And if Merkley can't beat Novick, there's no reason to believe he could put together the operation needed to beat Smith.

Anyway, if Madia can walk in with his 29 year old ass (or 32, or whatever), and wallop a respected state senator in a primary (or series of party conventions, as the case may be), then he's got something really special, and she clearly doesn't.  It's better to find out both of those things now, rather than in October.

...Not to mention that the grassroots progressive almost always votes better than the cautious, "swing district" establishment candidate, once in Congress.  There are structural as well as personal reasons for this: the grassroots progressive depends on very different people for his or her survival than the establishment candidate does.

And, in this particular case, the DCCC is not gonna walk away from either one of these candidates after the primary.  An open seat in MN-03 is gonna attract big money from our establishment even if it's Madia that wins the primary.  (As opposed to the Shea-Porter case, which was a more difficult carry to begin with and so the DCCC did walk away after the primary.)

Anyway, I'm pretty friggin impressed that Madia is beating Bonoff.  Like most others, I assumed she'd have walked away with the nomination by now.  If he is just plain good enough to beat her, then he's good enough to not only beat the GOP in November, but he good enough to hold the district at least as long as the national mood holds (which is all you can really ask in a swing district anyway).  He'll certainly hold the seat until redistricting in 2011, which is actually all that matters.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08


[ Parent ]
Clarification for New Mexico
They automatically get on the ballot with 20 percent of the vote, but can also get on the ballot by collecting signatures.  Several candidates have decided to do so, and several others have not.  A few who have and have not here.

New Mexico politics from the local perspective.


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