Duckworth

I hope that is not an outlier, those are great numbers for Tammy Duckworth.

BlueSunbelt.Com Netroots for the Sunbelt states robwire.com My personal blog

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by: rob @ Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 21:35:37 PM UTC

How did those Polls Do?

Field 2 for 2
1. CA Gov: Predicted +10%R, actual was +17%R, MOE was 3.5%, Undecided was 15%. Actual for "Others" was 5%, Predicted 6%.

CA Gov Results
Republican Schwarzenegger
(Incumbent)
  4,020,679  56%
Democratic Angelides
  2,787,531  39%
Green Camejo
  161,528  2%
Libertarian Olivier
  94,848  1%
Peace & Freedom Jordan
  56,007  1%
American Independence Noonan
  50,715  1%
99% precincts reporting - Updated: 8:28 p.m. ET 11-13-06 (CNN)

2. CA Sen: Predicted +28%D, actual was +24%D, MOE was 3.5%, Undecided was 12%. Actual for "Others" was 6%, Predicted 4%.

CA SenFeinstein
(Incumbent)
  4,193,833  59%
Republican Mountjoy
  2,479,517  35%
Green Chretien
  115,816  2%
Libertarian Metti
  110,594  2%
Peace & Freedom Feinland
  95,332  1%
American Independence Grundmann
  62,266  1%
99% precincts reporting - Updated: 8:28 p.m. ET (CNN)>/blockquote>

Zogby:
1. Way OFF=5: IL-06 Duckworth-D +14%. Actual: Roskam-R +2%.
2.  CT-02 Simmons-R by 5%. Actual- Courtney-D by 0.1%.
CT-04 Farrell-D by 7%. Actual- Shays-R by 3%.
PA-06 Murphy-D by 5%. Actual- Gerlach-R by 2%.
NM-01 Madrid-D by 9%. Actual Wilson-R by 0.1% (not called yet).
KY-04 Lucas-D by 3%. Actual- Davis-R by 7%.
Right-On (within MoE)=5:
OH-18  Space-D by 25% Actual- Space-D by 24%
IN-09 Hill-D by 2%. Actual Hill-D by 4%
NC-08 Shuler-D by 5% Actual- Shuler by 8%
MN-06 Bachmann-R by 10%. Actual- Bachmann-R by 8%
CO-07 Perlmutter-D by 14%. Actual- Perlmutter-D by 13%

3.Correct but margin off=4:

VA-02 Drake-R by 8%. Actual- Drake-R by 2%.
IA-01 Braley-D by 7%. Actual - Braley-D by 12%
IN-08 Donnelly-D by 13%. Actual- Donnelly-D by 8%.
AZ-08 Giffords-D by 17%. Actual- Giffords-D by 12%.

Hmmm. On Zogby, I'd say not so hot given the odds. 9 Correct calls out of 14, but actual margins were outside the MOE on 4 of those. I'll continue to take Zogby with the proverbial "grain of salt".

(-8.50/-7.44) "Real Democrats don't make promises they can't keep." Dr. Howard Dean

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by: Predictor @ Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 18:59:31 PM UTC

Those nasty RNC Robocalls

occurred in a numberof Districts that Zogby called very wrong.
After having the personal experience of talking to three voters who had experienced this littlle form of hell, there is little doubt in my mind that these robocalls cost us some seats.

 

Of those targeted by the NRCC with this illegal voter suppression, these 14 fantastic candidates lost:

  CA-04 - LOST Charlie Brown $5,036, $29,913
  CO-04 - LOST Angie Paccione  $243,557, $167,854
  CO-05 - LOST  Jay Fawcett $141,160
  CT-04 - LOST Diane Farrell $31,117, $26,105
  IL-06 - LOST Tammy Duckworth $18,095
  KY-04 - LOST Lucas $2,799, $539,240
  NM-01 - LOST Patricia Madrid $414,826, $4,039
  NY-29 - LOST Eric Massa  $176,626
  NV-02 - LOST Jill Derby  $7980, $177,679, $44,241
  NV-03 - LOST Hafen $8,000, $382,580
  OH - 02 - LOST Wulsin $22,411, $19,153, $3,017, $5,824, $2,182
  OH-15 - LOST Kilroy  $314,740
  VA-02 - LOST Kellam $175,528
  WA-08 - LOST Darcy Burner $5,981

  CT-02 - TIED Courtney $12,150, $8,750
  GA-08  - TIED Jim Marshall  $2,707, $77,131
  PA-06 -  TIED Lois Murphy  $3,506
  PA-08 - NOW DECLARED WINNER! Pat Murphy $1,981, $8,479
  WY-00 - TIED Trauner  $241,078

  Those 9 who won despite this voter suppression were:

  CT-05 - WON Chris Murphy $11,843 
  FL-22 - WON Klein $31,578
  IA-01 - WON Braley  $25,394, $303,685
  MN-01 - WON Tim Walz  $35,248
  NC-11 - WON Heath Shuler  $2,948
  NH-02 - WON Paul Hodes $8,000
  NY-24 - WON Arcuri  $3,636, $5472
  PA-10 - WON Carney $2,537
  TX-22 - WON Lampson $235,338
  Via Daily Kos (Kos) and (dotcommodity)

Not in Zogby Poll above, but an Exemplary Loss none the less:

Florida's 13th District, where Christine Jennings is currently locked in a recount battle. The final tally shows her down 386 votes. In the last three weeks of the election, the NRCC spent $58,326.78 on robo calls against Jennings...
(Kos 11-13-06)

I was wondering why the "Wave" results appeared so strange to me.
Why seats that should have fallen to us(given the comparables), seemingly went the other way. Factoring in the robcalls it all makes sense. It may not be a matter of Zogy being screwy, we may have to factor-in the impacts of robocalling dirty tricks into any polling we see in the future(unless we get it to go away that is).

(-8.50/-7.44) "Real Democrats don't make promises they can't keep." Dr. Howard Dean

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by: Predictor @ Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 23:54:10 PM UTC