PVI

What's the PVI of VA-11?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 01:10:52 AM UTC

Dee-licious!

Oh wait, sorry. That's the atomic weight of Bolonium.

It's R+0.6, and trending our way (Kerry did better here than Gore).

---

by: DavidNYC @ Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 01:15:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Webb took 55% Kaine took 56% in the district.

That's all you need to know.  John Kerry numbers aren't that relevant here.

Actually that's not true, cause neither Webb nor Kaine ran in presidential-turnout years, so presidential numbers do matter somewhat.

But Bush's margin in 2004 was a smaller percent than his margin nationwide.  If you calculated PVI based on just the 2004 election, it would come out D leaning, I think.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

---

by: texas dem @ Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 04:36:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lists

James L. needs to compile his list of retirements more often.  It triggered a gusher.  One today, two yesterday, two more at the end of last week.  Five in a week.  Hey, do the Republicans know something we don't?

---

by: David Kowalski @ Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 01:50:22 AM UTC

This catchy tune is getting a lot of airplay

---

by: KainIIIC @ Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 02:18:05 AM UTC

Now this is a good seat to flip

The GOP erosion in Fairfax County has been a long-term slide. The demographics have changed. Huge Hispanic population on eastern rim of district, along with a pretty good chunk of Dem-trending Asians, Arabs and Indian scattered throughout.

This seat reminds me of Bob Dornan's seat in Orange County, Cali. Immigration transformed it from a bastion of white Goldwater/Reagan GOP to a multi-ethnic hodepodge where even the whites were trending brie-chomping Rockefeller Republicans and Guilty White Lib.

Look at the transformation of the Business Roundtable there from GOP-leaning to Dem-leaning... from screaming for keeping Va a business friendly low-tax, non-union state to hollering til they are blue for more transportation infrastructure, school spending, and all sorts of stateist policies they would not have originally supported.

Davis was reflective of the former moderate Republican consensus (whose margin rested on disaffected conservatives having nowhere else to go). Now the demos have changed to where they no longer can construct a natural majority. They have become Arlington. Well, almost. And they will.

Among whites, the make-up of the electorate has changed as the lower middle-class whites have moved farther west into PW Loudon and even as far as the I-81 corridor as housing prices skyrocketed.

I'd say this a Dem-leaning seat at this point. The loss Davis' wife took last fall in the legislative election gives an even better reflection that this district has passed the tipping point. She lost in what were his core precincts.

OK, Davis was POd the right wing of the state party nixed his Senate bid... but his wife's loss really gave him a wake-up call his district has evolved to where even his holding it was problematic.

The Dems will pick this one up.  

---

by: pinhickwv @ Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 20:08:39 PM UTC

Dog parks

This will sound strange, but the existence of dog parks in an area is a good predictor of liberal Democratic political influence.  San Francisco, Burlington, VT, NY City, NoVa all have thriving dog parks.  NoVa was the odd area out but it flipped.  Otoh, much of the South seems pretty devoid of both dog parks and liberal/progressives.

The inner suburbs have pretty much gone through the change.  Bergen County, NJ, part of Orange County, CA, Westchester County and Long Island in NY, the Bay Area outside of SF.  It is the exurbs that cling to the low tax mantra and get crummy government at high prices (but "business riendly").  Just wait another 20 or 30 years and we'll get them , too.  Maybe less.

---

by: David Kowalski @ Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 20:56:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]