This seat is probably lost

at least for now, but at least it'll give us a kick in the ass.

Personally, with all the candidate wars going on at Dkos, the rise of the "McCain Demcorats," who are really just former anti-war Democrats who have switched sides and are afraid to admit it, and the disheartened Democratic base, I am pessimistic of the future of the party. I think we gain too much power too fast and don't know what to do with it. We'll probably lose it all again before we can gain a generation-long majority.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 05:57:46 AM UTC

I wouldn't give up on that seat

Carson still beats Elrod in the poll. Carson is still a black Democrat in a majority black district facing off against a white Republican. The Republican brand is very tarnished in Indiana these days, and moreso among African-Americans nationwide.

As strongly as I support gay marriage, I'll eat my hat if Carson loses because his support of gay rights wasn't strong enough. I have a strong feeling the number one issue is going to the economy, just as it currently is nationwide. That could play out either way, though.

With our side leading the polls, and our side having the momentum, I'll rate this seat LEAN DEM. I think if Carson wants to retain that seat for our side, he ought to tap into the national themes and focus on what we Democrats are trying to do for the country. If he can change the dynamic from man vs. man to party vs. party, he can swing some votes back our way. Also, he ought to seek a few heavy hitters to drop by - a visit from Obama could really boost Carson's fundraising and appeal.

And if we lose it, we just pick a better candidate in the May primary. But I'm not going to give up on the seat just because I'm not thrilled with the candidate, nor do I think Carson is entitled to the nomination. I have faith that the voters in Indianapolis will make the right choice sooner or later.

Delaware Liberal - biggest and best blog in Delaware.

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by: X Stryker @ Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 14:37:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

One correction ...

It's not a majority black district.  Not even close.  While I don't think Julia ever won the white vote, she had to carry a solid minority of it to be elected.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 14:41:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Racial Make-up of the 7th

According to the Almanac of American Politics (which despite Michael Barone's increasing looniness can be trusted on such matters), this district is 63% White and 29.4% Black.

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by: Vadranor @ Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 19:53:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My bad

Apologies! I must have gotten Indianapolis confused with Gary.

Delaware Liberal - biggest and best blog in Delaware.

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by: X Stryker @ Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 20:37:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No problem ...

And you must not have really spent any time in Indiana, 'cuz if you had, you'd never confuse the two :)

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 21:43:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

IN-01

(the one with Gary in it) is even whiter, at 69% white and 18% black. Gary itself is mostly African-American, but it only has about 100,000 people left in it anymore, so that's balanced out with a lot of burbs.

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by: Crisitunity @ Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 21:47:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I know that I run a site called "Blue Indiana"

...but I honestly think that the question at this point may not be if we lose this seat, but by how much we will lose it.

It's a bad, ugly situation, and our best hope may unfortunately be a primary fight.

Come visit us over at Blue Indiana.

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by: Thomas @ Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 05:58:26 AM UTC

Yikes. Ugh.

And did I mess something up with the link? Or attribute the piece incorrectly? Is "Vox Populi" not a diarist there?

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by: DavidNYC @ Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 06:05:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

He's a diarist.

I don't buy into the "Democrats for Elrod" stuff, but the sentiment is strong in the district. We have a Republican candidate who co-authored an ultimately-doomed hate crimes bill in the state legislature last year, and a Democratic candidate who said at a recent GLBT forum that homosexuality is a choice.

I think we'll bleed Democratic support in the special election. The only saving grace may be that it is a cheap media buy, so the DCCC might be able to spend a little on television ads, but I'm honestly at a loss for what the message would be. We -- and by 'we' I mean the voters at the recent caucus -- chose quite possibly the only person with less experience and qualifications than the Republican candidate.

It's going to get worse before it gets better, but a primary upset in May could give us a new lease on life in the district.

Of course, I could be wrong. But my general sense is that this will be an uphill fight in a district that should be safely ours.

Come visit us over at Blue Indiana.

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by: Thomas @ Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 06:13:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Even if Elrod were to win

Why wouldn't he get tossed out in November? It seems to me that the natural partisan leanings of IN-7 would make it almost impossible for a Republican to win in a high-turnout election.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 13:16:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I would hope so...

...and would be inclined to say we stand a decent chance of taking it in November, relatively speaking. I'm not sure Elrod can compete financially in a full cycle, and things will look a little better in November assuming the eventual Democratic gubernatorial candidate can start making waves. My fear is that Elrod will be able to raise some funds should he pull an upset in the special election. He would be a one-termer at best, but the media loved the Republican upset in the Indianapolis mayoral race, and they would probably give him the benefit of a similar outsider-vs-establishment narrative if he won in March.

Come visit us over at Blue Indiana.

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by: Thomas @ Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 14:02:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This has given me yet another headache!!

I think Thomas unfortunately may be right that the question is not whether we lose the seat in the special election, but by how much.  That said, special elections are tricky things to predict, with almost always low turnout, so we'll see.  If the old Carson machine can turn out central city votes, he still could win.

Andre Carson was about my last choice to get the nomination (the more I thought about it, I really wanted State Rep. Greg Porter), but I will vote for him in the special election.  On the important issues, I do think he'll be a solid progressive.  The "lack of experience" really doesn't bother me too much.  But the nepotism and sense of entitlement and arrogance of the handful of party insiders that pushed him really does bother me.  And if it bothers me -- as a solid liberal Democrat who absolutely adored his grandmother -- how is that going to play to more moderate and independent voters?  Here's where my headache comes back!!

So I'll commit to Andre in the March special election, but am remaining undecided for the May primary.  If he can solidly win, I think he probably should be the party choice for the fall.  If he narrowly wins, we'll have to think about it.  If he loses the special election, even by one vote, I think we need to look to someone else.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 14:02:20 PM UTC

Agreed.

If I turn out to be pleasantly wrong, and he wins by a healthy margin in March, I'll be more than happy to give him the benefit of the doubt for November. As I said in one of my posts, my concern isn't really the nepotism argument so much as the fact that his campaign hasn't impressed me with their ability to craft a message that I think will resonate with voters.

Special elections are strange beasts.

Come visit us over at Blue Indiana.

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by: Thomas @ Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 14:05:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Another factor

I think another factor is that he would be only the second Muslim elected to Congress.  I'm not sure most of the voters of Indianapolis know he's Muslim, but I'm sure the Republicans will waste little time informing us of that.  I hate that something like religion is a factor, but it is.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 14:44:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

wow, what a load of negativity

I don't like legacy elections either, though a certain Evan Bayh seems to have done very well with his father's name in Indiana.

Nonetheless, the solid Democratic nature of the district, the lack of scandal attributed to the young Carson, the well-funded DCCC, and the sympathy for Ms. Carson should be enough to put Andre Carson over the top on March 11.

I don't think sexual preference issues are ging to be the deciding factor for very many voters, and a Republican who is pro gay rights is just as liable to turn off his base as a Democrat who flubs an answer in a debate.

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by: st paul sage @ Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 17:41:49 PM UTC