Don't know anything of the district

but am curious if the Dem presidential nominee stands to gain from higher Democratic voter turnout due to an open seat election in this deep red district.   If there's a Democrat running a real campaign, is there evidence that Dem turnout goes up?    

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by: PeterB @ Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 21:00:09 PM UTC

Notr necessarily...

personalities, major incidents and overwhelming regional statistics bring voters out. The fact that this seat will be open may encourage DEMS to come out and vote or it could conceivably have the opposite effect in this district, should the DEMS be convinced that their man cannot win in the RED +10 district.

But looking at the trends, I would say that the turnout will go up overall.

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by: bonncaruso @ Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 22:00:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks for frontpaging me, James!

Not the first time I've made the front on SSP, but it's special every time.

By the way, my signature is screwed up - I can't change it. Every time I try to change it, the changes get erased and the old signature returns.

(I've recently retired from Senate Seeker to spend more time blogging).

Delaware Liberal - biggest and best blog in Delaware.

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by: X Stryker @ Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 22:13:11 PM UTC

rough prospect

There's an interesting discussion already on the big orange blog on this district, and rather than repeat what I said there, I'll just point to it:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

There are a couple of Democratic office-holders who might be interested and able to contest the district. Mr. Hilliard deserves a full measure of kudos for running last time - Peterson has run unopposed more often than not since first elected - but this is a difficult district and if we are serious about trying for it we will need a fund-raiser who is a more exciting speaker than Mr. Hilliard, who did not raise enough money in the 2006 cycle to trigger the need to file a report with the FEC, unless the Open Secrets website was not properly updated when the books were closed on that cycle:

http://www.opensecrets.org/rac...

The Republican who seems best poised to hold the seat for the Reds, state senator Jake Corman, will be a very formidable candidate. This is not a district where the fundamentals are radically changed by the retirement of the long-term incumbent, who was, as pointed out, a very low-profile member.

One of the factors that doubtless fed into his decision to retire now is that he is riding the crest of a very unusual wave of personal popularity and publicity, taking credit for blocking Governor Ed Rendell's hope to make I-80 a toll road, which the locals do not want.  It must strike Peterson as the zenith of his career, and what better moment to retire (in addition to the health problems hinted at in the announcement). He could serve another six terms without ever generating another headline even in the local papers. A quiet, colorless man and a feeble public speaker; I sat next to him at lunch one day (one table over, in a restaurant) over the holidays and barely realized who he was.

There are a couple of Democrats representing state legislative districts within the 5th who would be reasonable candidates, but it's a pity that the GOP will not be in much difficulty to identify a strong candidate to replace Peterson. This isn't a case of power vaccuum. It's actually a lucky break for the GOP, as their obvious front-runner is pretty young, and could look forward to serving many terms if he inherits the seat.

The other thing to keep an eye on is the hope that we will see a little bit of eye-gouging among Republican Congressvarmints hoping to get Peterson's seat on Appropriations. Maybe at least one bitter and permanent enmity will be generated as they wrassle for it. One can always hope.  

Half the population believes our electoral system is broken. The other half believes it is fixed. Wakeuplaughing.com  

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by: Christopher Walker @ Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 22:21:50 PM UTC

Redistricting sacrifice?

Pennsylvania is set to lose a seat after the 2010 Census, and with Democrats looking strong in Harrisburg, the Repubs may have to give up something. Usually the first to go, if an incumbent must go, is the most junior member of the delegation. So we can hope that a Democrat wins the seat this year, or, failing that, the Repub will get two terms and bye bye in 2012.

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by: WoodyNYC @ Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 22:43:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Conklin rules out run

The local paper that dominates the county with the biggest population in District 5 (Centre County) rapidly pulled together a survey of what's available to both parties in the way of prospective candidates:

http://www.centredaily.com/new...

Quick digest for those who don't have time to follow the link:  

Republicans:
State Sen. Jake Corman, R-Benner Township, now in the middle of his third four-year term...Corman said. "It's an opportunity. At the same time, I enjoy what I'm doing. I can honestly say to you that I have not made up my mind."
State Sen. Joseph Scarnati, R-Jefferson County, president pro tempore of the state Senate
State Sen. Mary Jo White, R-Venango County...who is not interested in the federal office.

Democrats
State Rep. Mike Hanna, whose district includes Clinton County and part of Centre County
State Rep. Dan Surra, whose district includes Elk County and part of Clearfield County.

Timing would be awkward for Scarnati. He has been mentioned in past speculation as a possible contender for the seat when it comes open, but his term is up this time, so he'd be risking a lot; and he's on the wrong side of the I-80 toll road debate, so some of what would normally be his base of support isn't too pleased with him just now.

The paper seems not to have contacted Republican State Rep. Kerry Benninghoff, perhaps predicting that he would defer to Corman if Corman decides to run.  

Half the population believes our electoral system is broken. The other half believes it is fixed. Wakeuplaughing.com  

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by: Christopher Walker @ Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 13:11:01 PM UTC

tough distsrict

I mean, it's easier if it's open, but my model based on just the demographics gives it a .75 probability of being Repub.

Still worth some work though!

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by: plf515 @ Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 20:31:12 PM UTC

Worth a try, but...

PA-5 is a tough, tough district for the Dems.  If I'm not mistaken, they last won it in 1976 and have only even come close once since then (either 1984 or 1986; I can't recall which).  It's mostly rural, and ancestrally Republican turf in the truest sense of the term.  John Peterson was hit with a sex scandal about a week before his first election (1996), and he still won with 60% of the vote.  That's his lowest percentage ever, although Don Hilliard matched it last year.  As somebody else suggested, our best bet for ever getting a crack at this territory is probably redistricting in 2012.  Sooner or later, PA is going to lose enough seats that the great empty swath that now makes up the 5th will have to be split up among other districts.

Still, if the Dems can turn up a charismatic candidate with something special to offer, it could be a fun one to watch.  Given the preponderance of Republicans there, I envision a pretty crowded primary.  That could help us too.

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by: RamblinDave @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 18:25:18 PM UTC

Actually, were I redistricting PA...

I'd actually keep the 5th around, and instead of chopping it up, add more GOP-leaning central PA areas from the 10th (Carney's district) and the 3rd (English's). The district I'd get rid of is Gerlach's (if it's still R-occupied), which is a  geometrical monstrosity.

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by: Seth D @ Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 19:48:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed

Yes, Gerlach's district has to go.  If PA keeps losing ground in redistricting, I've been thinking sooner or later they'll have to move a substantial metropolitan area into the 5th, perhaps Altoona (which wouldn't make it any less Republican, I suppose!).  

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by: RamblinDave @ Sun Jan 06, 2008 at 09:22:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Peterson Retirement

I am a Democrat who lives in Peterson's district.  This is WONDERFUL news.  Peterson is a complete rubber stamp for all of the worst of Bush's policies.  I led a campaign to complain about Peterson's vote against SCHIP and we actually picketed his office.
There is a growing excitment out here by Democrats and a real disgust against the Republican administration.  You would not believe the hate people feel towards Bush.  One after another they tell me that they cannot even bear to look at him and when he comes on TV they immediately switch the channel.  We voted for Senator Casey and against Rick Santorum and also for Governor Rendell who won by a landslide.  So the region may look red on paper but the times they are a changin.  We have a local state congressman, Dan Surra, who easily wins reelection as a liberal Democrat.  I campaigned for Don Hilliard last time when he ran against Peterson.  Mr Hilliard took NO money from any lobbyist or corporation and with only $10,000 of his own money ran a competitive campaign.  His motto was "Had enough yet?"  A lot of us certainly have.  Now if we could generate a little money, we might have a good shot at this seat.  The media market is sooo cheap here and radio is practically free.  Now is the time to get our message out.

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by: ABowers @ Sun Jan 06, 2008 at 04:46:31 AM UTC