MS-10

Who can Democrats get to run for this seat?

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 03:26:06 AM UTC

If Hillary is the nominee

then we can forget about this very winnable seat.  The NRCC will blast the district with pictures comparing our nominee to Hillary Clinton and sink them just like they did to Robin Weirauch in OH-05. 

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by: Sean @ Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 03:59:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think it's time to move on

You've made this point over and over (without citing any polls, I might add). We read you loud and clear, good buddy.

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by: DavidNYC @ Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 04:17:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Do you think

that this is not serious?  Just look at Robin Weirauch in OH-05.  Internal polling had her ahead a few days before the election, but as soon as Republicans compared her to Hillary Clinton in ads, Latta surged ahead and won 57%-43%.

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by: Sean @ Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 05:02:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Since you feel so strongly

That a Clinton candidacy would be very damaging to the Democratic Party, I assume that you have been busy volunteering in Iowa or New Hampshire for Obama or Edwards, right? Or at least phone-banking in your spare time if you can't travel to an early primary state?

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by: DavidNYC @ Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 05:48:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I question that polling

That is the most Republican district in Ohio.  She was never going to win that race.  Republicans just needed to turn out their voters.

www.trublupolitics.com

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by: Politicalhack @ Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 06:22:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I concur

No one ever saw any of those polls outside the DCCC. All of our information was at best second-hand, and more likely third-hand. Moreover, anyone worth her salt knows that polling a special election is difficult.

And finally, correlation does not imply causation. This was bad turf for the Dems, and it stayed bad, despite some false optimism at the DCCC.

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by: DavidNYC @ Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 06:47:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

also

the leak of the polling made the NRCC spend a lot of money they didn't have.  It was a win in that respect.

www.trublupolitics.com

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by: Politicalhack @ Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 20:04:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Didn't work

for John Hostettler in IN-08 last year when they tried to compare Brad Ellsworth to Nancy Pelosi and the gay agenda.

He won 61%-39% in a dark red district.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 08:53:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

on the bright side

she plays well in New York and New Jersey where we have a few good races.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 04:42:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Even not knowing who the candidate is

I'm having a hard time seeing us taking the seat, UNLESS the Republicans nominate either Giuliani or Romney.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 04:34:58 AM UTC

Presidential candidate, not senate candidate btw

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 04:35:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Back on Topic

Now that we've rambled on about Hillary's contribution to the demise of the MS Democratic Party, let's get back on task.

The Democratic candidate will most likely be former governor Musgrove.  If there's anything he can do, it's separate himself from New England Democrats.  He'll be a great candidate.

On the Republican side, we'll find out in about 1.5 hours who Gov. Barbour will appoint.  If it's Wicker, Musgrove will have a great shot at beating him.  Wicker is AWFUL!  If Wicker's seat becomes available, expect the DCCC to field a good candidate.  The 1st District has a lot of old-school Democrats that would vote for a good-ole boy Democrat.  In our state elections in November, Democrats won the state senate thanks to knocking off a Republican incumbent and winning an open Republican seat.  Both seats are in the 1st District.

Regardless of what happens today, expect the DSCC and NRSC to put a lot of money into this seat.  The NRSC, obviously, can ill afford to spend money in what is typically a reliable Republican state.  Looks like Tom Allen and Jeff Merkley caught a break, too.

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by: mississippiboy @ Mon Dec 31, 2007 at 15:58:35 PM UTC

*BREAKING NEWS*

Governor Barbour will appoint Rep. Roger Wicker to the Senate seat.

Also, governor Musgrove will NOT run for the seat.  Apparently, he and Wicker are too good of friends to run against each other.  They both served in the state senate together back in the early 90s.

Terrible news!  Unless the Democrats can find one hell of a candidate, expect this seat to stay Republican.

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by: mississippiboy @ Mon Dec 31, 2007 at 16:13:32 PM UTC