In the expert opinions . . .

. . . of the blogmasters, is this Zogby poll anything to worry about?  I know that Zogby has flawed methods of polling, but you know how one poll can influence others . . . should we be sweating about losing Landrieu?

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by: The Caped Composer @ Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 19:41:34 PM UTC

Yes

It's the Zogby Interactive polls that have proven to be incredibly unreliable...this seems to have been a standard telephone poll.  I've long said that we should be incredibly worried about losing Landrieu and this poll seems to reaffirm that sentiment.

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by: NYPopulist @ Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 19:52:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yikes

I don't know why but I really like Landrieu.  I really hope that the DSCC focuses on keeping our incumbents before capturing other seats, within reason.  

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by: Andrew @ Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 22:30:49 PM UTC

Seeing as how we only have one or two

vulnerable incumbents, I'm sure they'll get all the help they'll need from the DSCC.

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by: wmlawman @ Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 23:26:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't

Martin Chavez is the only challenger for the Democrats that I think would be worse then Mary Landrieu  

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by: Populista @ Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 23:32:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's true that our six major challengers

(Udall, Udall, Warner, Shaheen, Franken, Merkley) would all be more reliable votes for the Democratic side than Landrieu.  And so would some of our second tier challengers (Allen and Begich... Luallen Hagan and Noriega would all have similar voting patterns to Landrieu.)  

The thing about Landrieu is, she could easily become the only thing keeping the Democratic Party of Louisiana alive.  Re-elect her to another six year term, and the state party has a chance of surviving into future election cycles.  Lose her, and Louisiana becomes the next Georgia or Florida.  She is the only game in town for Louisiana Dems, and that is something to think about.  Watching an entire state party be blown into oblivion would be a real bummer.  (We've seen this in Texas, Georgia, and Florida and it has NOT been pretty.)

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

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by: texas dem @ Fri Nov 30, 2007 at 12:48:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

We're still alive in Florida

Last I checked: Bill Nelson was still Senator, we gained 2 US house seats (maybe more this cycle), gained a statewide office (CFO Alex Sink), and gained 7 seats in the state House. Granted it's not as good as it should be, but it's still better than TX or GA.

Plus, LA Dems still have the State Senate, the Lt Governorship (Mary's brother Mitch), and the Attorney General (an open seat where the Dem won with 67%)

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by: corran horn @ Fri Nov 30, 2007 at 17:15:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

TX House

It's also worth noting that we've been making strong gains in the TX State House, going from a 62-88 deficit in 02 to a 70-80 deficit as of earlier this year.  

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by: corran horn @ Fri Nov 30, 2007 at 23:55:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not to mention . . .

Dallas County, having taken over every competed office in Dallas County in 2006, in addition to some smaller gains made in Dallas in 2004. Second largest county in Texas goes blue, and it's no where near the border. There was another county that we did the same thing in 2006 that was next to Travis County (Austin).

Look out, Harris (Houston) and Galveston counties will be the next to go in 2008! Who knows, maybe we can get Bexar County (San Antonio) as well.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Sat Dec 01, 2007 at 00:02:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Texas Dems are coming BACK from having been blown into oblivion.

The period 1994-2002 was a time of Republicans absolutely whupping the Texas Democrats.  In 2002 we lost every statewide office by large margins, including an open Senate seat.  In 2003 they redistricted and tried to destroy all six white Democrats in Congress; they got four of them, including two ranking members, and one of the survivors had to run in a 70% Hispanic gerrymander to stay in Congress.  Republicans demolished Democrats in the state, and while we are coming back, we're right now talking about maybe taking back one chamber of the state legislature, in time to maybe not see our gains in the House wiped out in the next redistricting.  It is very real progress and hard-won too, but it's a very deep hole that Texas Dems are digging out of.

Zooming back out though, I think you're missing my point.  TX FL and GA are all states where Dems are having a really hard time getting, keeping, or expanding a meaningful toehold.  Right now we still have that in Louisiana with Landrieu; sending her into a third term would mean that Dems still control a signficant lever of power in the state and can't be totally disregarded or crossed.  Lose Landrieu, and Dems will have a much harder time making a case that locally powerful interests should play ball with them.  Landrieu in the Senate means more to the Democratic Party of Louisiana, in other words, than it does to Dick Durbin, the Senate whip who's trying to round up votes.  Just cause Landrieu's an unreliable vote doesn't mean she's not important for other reasons.

And I take for granted that maintaining a viable Democratic Party of Louisiana is a good thing.  50 state strategy and all that.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

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by: texas dem @ Sat Dec 01, 2007 at 01:15:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I like Landrieu too.

She's one of those folks who voted pretty liberally at the outset, and has become more conservative recently.  She's clearly become more conservative out of necessity, rather than because she's "gone native" like Lieberman or something.  Back when she felt more free to vote her "conscience" (all relative, of course), she was voting with us.  To me that means her heart's with us, she'd like to be a liberal, but she doesn't think she can get away with it.  I can forgive that.

Contrast Jane Harman or Ellen Tauscher, both of whom vote more conservative than their constituencies would force them to.  Or Ken Salazar, who started off conservative and actually become a more partisan Democrat as he stuck around DC longer.  Or John Breaux, who could have voted however the hell he wanted, but who mostly stayed pretty darn conservative.  I feel more warmly toward Landrieu than Breaux, I think (although I have very little first-hand or otherwise meaningful knowledge about either).

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

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by: texas dem @ Sat Dec 01, 2007 at 01:26:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]