Looking at the numbers

Looking at these numbers it looks like Democrats have made a lot of safe gains and only picked up a few really vulnerable seats. Republicans, on the other hand, picked up a couple of very close seats and we'll likely see serious challenges in the MI-07, IL-06, FL-13, Fl-09, and MN-06 at minimum.

Any word as to whether Scott Kleeb will be running again in the NE-03?

I'm proud to work for the Service Employees International Union.

---

by: Matt Browner Hamlin @ Mon Nov 27, 2006 at 03:59:47 AM UTC

Not so sure

I think that only FL-13 is vunerabe in a non-wave year, Bachmann won by a pretty sound margin.  That being said I tend to be on the more cautious side when it comes to which races will and won't be competitve.  With the right candidate and campaign manager any race can become competetive, within reason.  OR-03 will never be close.

---

by: descartes @ Mon Nov 27, 2006 at 09:00:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bachmann won by 8 points

but she only got 50% of the vote, an Indy candidate picked up 8%. Anybody know what the political leanings of the Indy candidate were, is it "Independence Party" as in right wing anti-immigrationists?
Was Wetterling too left?
Bachmann is very much a rightwing nutjob, I don't consider her safe with the right candidate. Wetterling was unable to take-out Kennedy (2004) who did very badly against Klobuchar-D.

Minnesota 06
Updated:11-28-06 1:22 p.m. ET100% of precincts reporting (CNN)
Republican Bachmann
  151,962  50%

Democratic Wetterling
  128,053  42%

Independence Binkowski
  23,632  8%

 

(-8.50/-7.44) "Real Democrats don't make promises they can't keep." Dr. Howard Dean

---

by: Predictor @ Mon Nov 27, 2006 at 18:56:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well...

...if we're really going to give this one another go, I suggest getting that Tinklenberg (sp?) guy--the dude that Wetterling muscled out during the primary.  I think he's a local pastor, which could help in that area.  We might need Bachmann to have a Jean Schmidt/macaca-style gaffe or two, though.

---

by: James L. @ Mon Nov 27, 2006 at 20:30:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

LOL

You're on a Roll and it ain't a Croissant. Yuk Yuk.
That most certainly is my point in MN-06, correct& gleaming candidate.
Gee maybe Kennedy will try to get back his House seat..LOL.

Jean "Cafeteria Lady" has got to go next cycle!

(-8.50/-7.44) "Real Democrats don't make promises they can't keep." Dr. Howard Dean

---

by: Predictor @ Mon Nov 27, 2006 at 21:39:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

"picked up"?

I think you mean Republicans held some close seats. There were no Republican pickups this year.

---

by: KCinDC @ Mon Nov 27, 2006 at 15:36:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I still worry we have a lot of ground to defend.

PA-10, TX-22, KS-02, OH-18, IN-09 etc. are gonna be very hard to hold on to. That bein said we have added some seats that probably won't switch back to R in a long time like the two Iowa seats and the KY-03 seat and others.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

---

by: D in FL @ Mon Nov 27, 2006 at 05:06:33 AM UTC

Southern Indiana Is Not So Simple

I'm not so sure that Baron Hill will have that much trouble holding the Indiana 9th.  He was the represented there for 3 terms prior to losing in a Bush Tsunami in '04 (that huge Bush vote, for which the GOP Congressional candidate only got 75% of it schews the PVI--which, I believe, is the average of the last two presidential votes in the district). Even with the Bush Tsunami then, Hill lost by but 0.5%.  This time he won by a 6 point spread.  The question is will another GOP presidential wave hit this district again, bringing out an abnormal number of first time, middle aged voters (and will the IU students go so strongly Democratic, as they have in the last two elections, along with Bloomington's heretofore moderate Republicans not buying into the GOP's rejection of the Age of Reason.

Southenr Indiana ( 8th an d9th) are far more complex than the national media would have you believe with the simplistic Indiana is Republican country stuff.

---

by: Epicurus @ Tue Nov 28, 2006 at 16:15:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

PA-10

I think we'll PA-10 and IN-8.  Worried about TX-22, but Lampson is a great candidate.

www.trublupolitics.com

---

by: Politicalhack @ Mon Nov 27, 2006 at 05:34:25 AM UTC

Lose or keep?

Ya left out a crucial word there...

---

by: James L. @ Mon Nov 27, 2006 at 05:45:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

yeah sorry

keep PA-10

www.trublupolitics.com

---

by: Politicalhack @ Mon Nov 27, 2006 at 16:04:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tim Walberg

Can not possibly hold if we get the right candidate.

---

by: democraticavenger @ Mon Nov 27, 2006 at 05:56:08 AM UTC

Agreed.

Finding a top tier recruit to go at Walberg hard should be close to the top of the DCCC's to do list for 2007.

---

by: James L. @ Mon Nov 27, 2006 at 06:09:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

we need to start getting into Michigan now for '08...

MI-07, MI-08, MI-09 and MI-11 are ripe pickup opportunities.

---

by: beeswax49 @ Mon Nov 27, 2006 at 16:12:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Districts

I am hoping that we can hold TX-22 with conservative Democrat Lampson.  I think we can hold IN-08 without too much worry.  Im pretty sure that Baron Hill knows how to win in IN-09 as he held on in 2000 and 2002 when he was a top target of the Republicans.  I hope Boyda can tout a populist voting record that keeps her popular in KS-02.  Im worried about Space in OH-18, however he was able to win by about 24 points and will hopefully mantain a moderate, pro-gun voting record that will help him hold on to the district. 

As far as pickups, we need to expand the field again.  We should try to recruit Joe Turnham to run again in AL-03.  It would also be nice if in 2010 the legislature could pull some of the extra black voters out of AL-07 and place them in AL-06 and AL-02 to make those districts competitive again.  AZ-01, NM-01, NM-02, MN-06, MN-02, the Michigan districts, PA-18, NV-03, OH-01, OH-15, IA-04, NY-25, NY-29, CT-04, WA-08, WA-05 and FL-13 all need to be top targets as we try to protect our freshman.  I hope that the changover in the House in 2008 is minimal due to the likely competitive Presidential election.

---

by: Sean @ Mon Nov 27, 2006 at 06:35:55 AM UTC

My list

You forgot PA-06!  I'd say our best targets are NM-01, AZ-01, NY-25, CT-04, WA-08, OH-15, NC-08, NV-03.  MN-06, WA-05, CA-04, NY-29, NY-26 are all good for a strong challange with either a good candidate or campaign manager.  AZ-01 anybody?  It was a reasonably quiet year for them down there.

---

by: descartes @ Mon Nov 27, 2006 at 09:06:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

My list of CD's requiring Special Focus in '08

Dem Held:KS-02,NH-01,PA-10,PA-04,FL-16,CT-02,KY-03,GA-12,GA-08,IA-03,CA-11
Limbo: NC-08,FL-13,UT-?

Gop Target List: CT-04,IL-06,AZ-01,IL-10,NJ-07,NJ-02,FL-08,CO-04,OH-01,OH-02,ID-01,PA-06,MI-07,IN-03,CA-04,CA-50,NY-25,NY-29,MN-06,CO-04,WY-AL,NE-01,NE-03,NE-02,NM-01,NY-03,OH-15,VA-02,VA-11.

That's a start, expect lots will happen in the next 23 months to alter this listing.

(-8.50/-7.44) "Real Democrats don't make promises they can't keep." Dr. Howard Dean

---

by: Predictor @ Mon Nov 27, 2006 at 20:47:32 PM UTC

KY-03 and CT-02

KY-03 and CT-02 are both very Democratic districts where only a select few Republicans can win.  Also, I don't see why everybody says FL-16 will be so hard to hang on to.  It only has a PVI of R+2 and if Mahoney can keep a moderate voting record, he could be OK.  GA-12 also should stay Democratic since even Kerry won that district.  NH-01 is also a district that is trending more and more Democratic every election.  We need to make sure that all of our freshman and vulnerable incumbents will be able to win again.

We should also try to expand the playing field and get a good candidate in IA-04, where Latham may run against Harkin.  There are many other districts that could be won with the right candidate.  I am hoping that we can at least break even in the House in 2008.  Call me crazy, but
I almost hope that we elect a Republican president so we can pad our majorities in 2010.

---

by: Sean @ Tue Nov 28, 2006 at 02:50:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

There's another

Knew I'd forget at least one: Gop Target- WA-08.

(-8.50/-7.44) "Real Democrats don't make promises they can't keep." Dr. Howard Dean

---

by: Predictor @ Mon Nov 27, 2006 at 20:50:41 PM UTC

And Another

NV-02 (Gop Target)

(-8.50/-7.44) "Real Democrats don't make promises they can't keep." Dr. Howard Dean

---

by: Predictor @ Mon Nov 27, 2006 at 22:45:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

and NV-03

they keep a coming. I'll stop. LOl.

(-8.50/-7.44) "Real Democrats don't make promises they can't keep." Dr. Howard Dean

---

by: Predictor @ Mon Nov 27, 2006 at 22:47:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not optimistic...

...about NV-02.  That's a pretty solid Republican seat, and Dean Heller is a relatively clean candidate to hold on to that one.  Had it been the Club for Growth's Sharon Angle who won the Republican primary, it might have been a different story.

---

by: James L. @ Mon Nov 27, 2006 at 23:00:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tis True

but Heller-R only won by 6 points with 51% of the vote.
I think our chances in '08 could possibly improve due to  normally higher turnout conditions in a Prez election year.
Lets see how moderate he really is or whether he swings right to accomodate the CFG's in the District. The lkey may be whether or not Angle re-surfaces, she's certainly not a good loser.

(-8.50/-7.44) "Real Democrats don't make promises they can't keep." Dr. Howard Dean

---

by: Predictor @ Wed Nov 29, 2006 at 04:44:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Some of the locals...

...have been giving Heller a new nickname: the 'Do, Jr.  (The 'Do, Sr. being John Ensign, and by 'do, we mean spectacular hair, of course.)  I fear that he could have an Ensign-like teflon quality to him.

---

by: James L. @ Wed Nov 29, 2006 at 05:02:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh Doo like Hairdoo

LOL. You mean he's got  Reichert hair? Do'h.

(-8.50/-7.44) "Real Democrats don't make promises they can't keep." Dr. Howard Dean

---

by: Predictor @ Wed Nov 29, 2006 at 05:05:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

PA-02 Open Seat

Chaka Fattah-D PA-02 is running for Mayor of Philly.
Prospective candidates please line up to run in this D+39 District. And hopefully a Progressive to replace the liberal Fattah.
http://www.pennlive....
 

(-8.50/-7.44) "Real Democrats don't make promises they can't keep." Dr. Howard Dean

---

by: Predictor @ Wed Nov 29, 2006 at 21:33:14 PM UTC