The battle for redistricting and the reapportionment of House seats has been a hot topic at the Swing State Project for a while. A few days ago, we took a look at the fastest and slowest-growing House districts in the nation. It might be time to follow that up with Polidata's projections (based on '06 estimates) for the states that stand to gain and lose House seats after the 2010 Census:
To recap, while many of the states that stand to lose seats are of a bluish hue, the net effect of these changes will be decided mostly by the Democrats' strength at the redistricting table. The redistricting process varies from state to state, but the DLCC has an extremely handy chart here detailing how it's done in all 50 states, along with the balance of power in each state legislature. (Note: this chart is not updated to reflect the Democratic gain of the Mississippi and Virginia state senates.)
With some artful redistricting, Illinois should be able to rid itself of a few GOP House incumbents, for instance. Michigan's delegation is also out of whack, but the Dems will need to reclaim the state senate in order to get a total edge in the process. Republicans have already done some amazingly twisted things with the Texas map this decade, so it'll be hard to see how they could squeeze four more pick-ups out of their new bounty. I have to imagine that one or possibly two of those new seats will be Latino-dominated.
Any other thoughts from our crack team of redistricting fans in the comments?