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Mike Weaver (D): 46 (42)
Ron Lewis (R-Inc.): 43 (50)
MoE: ±4.9%

I've always figured that this race was a questionable longshot given the district's strong Republican lean (in federal votting patterns, not registration), but it appears that Weaver, a retired Lt. Colonel, has been able to gain traction in this district and is starting to bring registered Democrats home. The DCCC has put in nearly $200k into this district for stretch run attack ads against Lewis, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that number expand considerably in tonight's FEC filings. We might be able to steal one here.

Update: A few days ago, a Washington Post article quoted an anonymous Democratic "operative" calling the DCCC's support of Weaver "guilt money" to cleanse their consciences after cajoling Weaver into the race. I didn't buy it then (it's hard to imagine Rahm spending time worrying about people's hurt feelings when the same could be said about several other Democratic challengers this year), and I definitely don't buy it now. It seems as if some anonymous "operative" was attempting to throw off the NRCC from taking Weaver seriously (and I doubt they bought it, either, although you never know with the leakariffic culture of DC Democrats).

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• KS-02: The DCCC is expanding yesterday's play in this district by $313,000 for both positive and negative TV ads boosting the campaign of Democratic challenger Nancy Boyda. That brings the total spent in this district by the DCCC to over $650k. The NRCC's response today? A minor $27k media buy. Watch what they'll do tomorrow, though.

• NY-25: Boom! The DCCC has just placed a $334k media buy in this district, with both positive ads for Dan Maffei and negative ads against incumbent Jim Walsh.

• IN-03: As promised yesterday, the NRCC has dropped another $75k in TV ads into this deep-red district to fend off Ft. Wayne city councilman and self-funder Tom Hayhurst from upsetting Republican Mark Souder. In total, the NRCC has spent just shy of $200k defending this seat. Definitely one of the most eyebrow-raising expenditures of the cycle.

• NC-08: Moveon.org has entered the fray on behalf of grassroots-powered Democrat Larry Kissell with a $128k media buy against Republican incumbent Robin Hayes. If there's one thing that Larry has lacked so far, it's the money to go toe-to-toe in an air war with self-funding gazillionaire Hayes. Definitely a well-placed hit by Moveon.

• OH-02: Emily's List is doing the heavy lifting here, with $52k worth of direct mail and radio ads both for Victoria Wulsin and against Jean Schmidt. This is on top of $31k spent yesterday on direct mail.

• Union activity: the AFSCME is up with new ads against Don Sherwood in PA-10 ($50k), NRCC chair Tom Reynolds in NY-26 ($40k), and Michelle Bachmann (R) in MN-06 ($50k). The SEIU has put $45k into CO-04 for radio ads in support of Angie Paccione, $76k into MN-01 for direct mail in support of Tim Walz, $68k for radio spots in support of Patty Wetterling, and $67k into NV-02 for radio spots in support of Jill Derby.

• And, of course, as David mentioned below, the DCCC has dropped a massive $1.12 million bomb on Charlie Bass in NH-02. Daaaayum, that's gonna hurt, Charlie.

DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE

1. Supports Candidate: Paul W. Hodes (H4NH02175)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Hampshire District 02
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 10/30/2006 Amount Expended = $490644.75
Purpose: Media Buy

2. Opposes Candidate: Charles F. Bass (H0NH02017)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Hampshire District 02
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 10/30/2006 Amount Expended = $490644.75
Purpose: Media Buy

3. Supports Candidate: Paul W. Hodes (H4NH02175)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Hampshire District 02
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 10/30/2006 Amount Expended = $35572.50
Purpose: Media Buy

4. Opposes Candidate: Charles F. Bass (H0NH02017)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Hampshire District 02
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 10/30/2006 Amount Expended = $35572.50
Purpose: Media Buy

5. Supports Candidate: Paul W. Hodes (H4NH02175)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Hampshire District 02
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 10/31/2006 Amount Expended = $26888.62
Purpose: Media Buy

6. Opposes Candidate: Charles F. Bass (H0NH02017)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Hampshire District 02
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 10/31/2006 Amount Expended = $26888.63
Purpose: Media Buy

TOTAL: $1,120,206.75

Yeah, you read that last line right. Please join with me in using the Dr. Evil voice when we say ONE MEEELYON DOLLARS! They come at us with $365K, we go at them with $1.1M - that's the Chicago way.

Anyhow, apart from just expressing my joy that the DCCC is beating up so heavily on Bass (couldn't happen to a nicer guy), I do want to make a broader point here. For those of you backing candidates in competitive districts where the DCCC has yet to make a move, don't fret. Sometimes waiting can really pay off. Had the DCCC made a splash in this district any earlier than now, the NRCC (or RNC) would have been sure to match them. It would have been a slogfest, and slogfests almost always favor the party with more money - ie, the Republicans.

Because the DCCC held its fire, the GOP didn't move in this district until late last week. And by playing our cards so close to our vest until the absolute last moment, that makes it a hell of a lot harder for the NRCC to counter the pocket queens we just revealed. I say "pocket queens" because the GOP may yet have a pair of aces face down on the table. But I doubt it. I feel pretty sure that this strategy of delay has paid off.

And this is especially true in redder districts. If the GOP matches Dem independent expenditures (IEs) in a red district, that's almost always going to hurt the Dem, net-net. That's because the redder the area, the more likely undecideds are to lean Republican. The way to avoid this is for Dems to spend in such a way that it comes as a total surprise to the Republicans, as in KS-02, so that they can't match, or at least, can't match in time. In other words, I wouldn't be surprised if the DCCC parachuted into some other under-the-radar districts before election day. So keep your eyes on those IE reports.

That image is a jack-o-lantern made by DailyKos community member spurdy. Definitely an image that's sure to bring fear to the hearts of Republicans everywhere. This pin from a Larry Grant supporter is almost as good.

I hope you have a good time tonight!

If the GOP wants to play that game, fine. Remember this nugget, from an August 2004 Bush speech?

Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we.

Everyone had a big laugh over Bush's verbal gaffe two years ago. Did you see John Kerry and the Democratic Party issuing press releases calling on Bush to cease his treasonous war against the citizens of the United States of America? No, because to do so would be completely ridiculous. Just as ridiculous as the sanctimonious, dishonest drivel that Tony Snow and George Bush are trying to feed into the media narrative tonight.

No one took Bush's verbal stumble seriously in August 2004. And by the same measure, no one should hold Kerry's stumble to a higher standard.

• The NRCC is playing it safe: they're going up on the air to defend Rick Renzi (AZ-01), Doug Lamborn (CO-05), Mark Souder (IN-03), Ron Lewis (KY-02), and Gil Gutknecht (MN-01). The defense of Souder is especially surprising, given the rock-ribbed Republican nature of the district, but an internal poll that they also paid for today might explain why. In total, they've spent nearly $125k defending Souder, with that figure increasing dramatically soon once the ad time is booked in the next day or so. When the NRCC has to put up precious dollars defending their hold on James Dobson's home turf, you know that we've done a good job expanding the playing field.

• Aside from their top-tier targets, the DCCC is stepping up to the plate with advertisements in NH-02 both in support of Paul Hodes and against Charile Bass, and in NY-25 with ads supporting Democratic challenger Dan Maffei. More ads are on the way against incumbents Cathy McMorris in WA-05 and Lewis in KY-02.

• MoveOn.org is launching a sneak attack on the suddenly vulnerable Republican Rep. Melissa Hart (PA-04) with a $240,000 ad buy and another $167,000 on attack ads and mailings against Thelma Drake (VA-02).

(Edit--I originally titled this diary "Tuesday Independent Expenditure Round-Up". I guess it's one of those weeks where I'm wishing we could just get on with it!)

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A little too unlikely, but some of the other races polled feel right. Give it a look.

This doesn't happen every day: An incumbent member of Congress, in the middle of a re-election battle, says that storing nuclear waste shipments from around the world in her district may be a good idea.

U.S. Rep. Jean Schmidt does say that, and her support for studying the idea has become an issue in her re-election campaign, especially in rural Pike County, in the far eastern end of her sprawling Southern Ohio District, where the nuclear wastes would be stored.

"I'm not advocating for it one way or the other," Schmidt told The Enquirer. "I'm saying it is something we need to look at."

Schmidt said she sees potential to create "hundreds, maybe thousands of jobs" in an economically distressed part of the state, where double-digit unemployment rates are the norm.

Unreal. With just over a week left until election day, Schmidt drops a radioactive October surprise on herself. When was the last time that you heard a politician advocate for the possibility of bringing nuclear waste into their constituency? It's mind-boggling, especially since this district nestles the Ohio River.

Cincinnati is an expensive media market to air ads in, but if the DCCC wanted to finish a vulnerable Jean Schmidt off, this could be the silver bullet.

Anyhow, only two more of these open threads until election day. See any interesting, late-breaking fundraising reports? Let us know.

Democrats haven't won a governor's race since 1990 or a seat in Congress since 1992, but a call for change nationally is reaching Idaho. Coupled with Republican candidates who inspire negative feelings, Democrats have a shot.

In the governor's race, Republican U.S. Rep. Butch Otter leads Democratic newspaper owner Jerry Brady by a single percentage point. Republican state Rep. Bill Sali has a 2 percentage point lead over Democratic businessman Larry Grant for the congressional seat that runs from West Boise north to Canada. In the race to oversee public schools, Democrat Jana Jones leads Republican Tom Luna by 3 percentage points.

All three are statistical dead heats. The survey of 625 likely voters was conducted for the Idaho Statesman and Today's 6, the local ABC affiliate. The margin of error statewide is plus or minus 4 percentage points; in the 1st District that rises to 6 percentage points. Likely voters were polled last week by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research of Washington, D.C. (emphasis added)

I won't keep it a secret: what's going on in Idaho is my favorite story of this cycle. Even in the reddest of red America, the GOP's lurch towards extremism coupled with a Democratic renaissance at the grassroots level has the potential to result in several major upsets this year:

"At this point in a typical campaign, Idaho Democrats are dispirited and looking for moral victories," said Jim Weatherby, a political scientist who has overseen polling at Boise State University. "This time, it looks like they may actually pull off some major victories."

In follow-up interviews with 42 polled voters, the Statesman learned they want change largely because of disapproval of President Bush and the war in Iraq.

Idaho GOP Chairman Kirk Sullivan said the national mood is hurting Republicans in the reddest of states. "Idaho has been rather immune to the attitude and mood of the public across the nation," he said. "But this time, based on the amount of coverage that appears to be anti-Bush and anti-war, I believe that attitude has invaded Idaho," he said.

A blue Idaho would fit perfectly right beside a blue Montana, don't you think?

House Democrats launched a surprise television attack against Rep. Jim Ryun of Kansas on Friday night, hoping to increase the number of competitive races in the battle for control of Congress.

Ryun “voted against a $1,500 combat bonus for our troops, but voted to give himself a huge pay raise — twice,” the ad says of the five-term lawmaker.

It praises his rival, Nancy Boyda, as “honest and independent — the right change for Kansas.”

The district, centered on Topeka, has been in Republican hands since 1995. The race had not generally been described by strategists in either party as a competitive one, and the commercial does not mention that Boyda is a Democrat.

Aside from some internal polling showing a tight race that some questioned, KS-02 was definitely not a race on the radar screen this cycle. But with Sebelius on the top of the ticket and Ryan performing at his weakest in 2004, perhaps the DCCC is sensing some vulnerability here. If I recall correctly, Chuck Todd of the National Journal called this a seat that could very well flip in a wave, anti-incumbent year. If the D-trip is making a last-minute intervention here, it might bode well for the chances of other 2nd and 3rd tier candidates receiving an unexpected boost.

Keep your eyes peeled for more last-week surprises.

Update: And it's not chump change, either: the DCCC is putting over $300,000 into this district, on ads both attacking Ryun and boosting Boyda. They're also spending nearly $200k on attack ads against Republican Rep. Ron Lewis (KY-02), which is also a bit eyebrow-raising.