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KS-02: The Hard Way

by: DavidNYC

Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 10:34 PM EDT


Chris Van Hollen announced today at a press conference that no House Dem freshman turned down help from the DCCC's Frontline program. Last cycle, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01) initially spurned Frontline but later had the sense to change her mind, which is why she's still in Congress. Meanwhile, the only member who strong-armed the DCCC until the bitter end apparently learned her lesson the very, very hard way:

Van Hollen also said [former KS-02 Rep. Nancy] Boyda left him a regretful voicemail that she told him to play for any other vulnerable member toying with the idea of skipping out on Frontline.

"All of our new members have learned from the mistakes of two in the former class who did not participate," Van Hollen said. "Nancy Boyda has been very clear about the fact that she made a mistake.

"It's a great message, because she clearly felt that not participating was a good part of the reason she failed."

Good, at least, that she is putting herself out there as a cautionary tale for others. The DCCC is quite skilled at incumbent protection. It'll be long time before anyone forgets that.
DavidNYC :: KS-02: The Hard Way
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KS-02: The Hard Way | 61 comments
Sometimes the DCCC screws up on offense
but they are pretty solid on defense.

I wonder if Boyda wants back in?  Not sure how successful she would be though.

I still think she lost
because the Republicans ran a candidate who's demographics were key to Boyda winning in the first place...moderate fiscally-conservative Republican women.



Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Yeah...
Why couldn't Lynn Jenkins just join the happy throng and jump into the Senate race with the rest of Kansas's Republican House delegation?  She's a former statewide office holder and probably holds the highest name ID out of the three of them.
[ Parent ]
That would be a completely hopeless venture
Boyda caught lightning in a bottle - then left it uncorked. It'll never happen again.
[ Parent ]
Or, as they NRCC would say:
Whose the second?
All of our new members have learned from the mistakes of two in the former class who did not participate,"

You guys say CSP was the other but then that she changed her mind and did accept help.  Did Van Hollen goof and mean just one then?

nevermind
obviously it's CSP, I re-read the whole post and was like, duh.....  But then Van Hollen is a little off.
[ Parent ]
I don't think he was off
I think he's saying that CSP realized it was a mistake not to accept the DCCC's help.
[ Parent ]
I think Van Hollen is implying...
...that CSP would have had a bit of an easier time of it last fall if she had accepted DCCC assistance earlier in the cycle, as opposed to several months into 2008.
[ Parent ]
I just wonder about that
Their biggest failure was probably Lampson, because they went all out for him. But their biggest success was probably Kanjorski.

But in both of those races, I think the top of the ticket mattered a lot.  

[ Parent ]
Lampson was probably always hopeless
once Shelley Kula or whatever he name was lost the primary...and even then.

Obama actually did ok in TX-22 considering...I would have laughed at the idea of a Democratic Presidential candidate getting 41% there a few years ago.

I do think Obama saved Kanjorski though. Funny since early last summer at lot of people were saying he'd lose that district and take Kanjorski down with him...then they were saying he'd be no help because he probably wouldn't do any better than Kerry...then he won the district by 15.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Biden's Scranton shtick worked
That district is a place where just about all of the big name Democrats are popular. This ad tickled me and so did this one, to a lesser degree.

As to Lampson. . .TX-22 is clearly just a straight ticket district.  

[ Parent ]
Hmm. Well, power of incumbency there ya go.
I bet you Kanjorski's narrow win surprised Republicans as much things like Bachmann's narrow win surprised us.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Here's the crazy thing:
the finals polls of PA-11 said that Obama would win the district easily, but Kanjorski wouldn't. Go figure.  
[ Parent ]
I must say
I was rather surprised by how incredibly popular Hillary was up there in the primaries. Her presidential run didn't make her president, but if anything, it shattered the notion that she is a polarizing figure hated by half the country.

I guess that's Sarah Palin's place now.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
She reinvented herself
I think it's fair to say that "ready to lead on day one" worked. She had a good Scranton ad during the primary too. (Honestly, the primary map in PA was really ugly for Obama. About a year ago, I didn't think it was possible for him to win in November).  
[ Parent ]
It wasn't the "ready on day one"
It was the positioning of herself as a Democrat who represents the working class.  In retrospect, her campaign from March onwards was brilliant.

I think Clinton would have won Missouri, Arkansas, West Virginia, and possibly Kentucky in the general election, and come up short in Tennessee and Louisiana.  OTOH, she would have lost Indiana and North Carolina, as she likely wouldn't have competed there (her plan was to compete in states that Bill won.)  Obama cost himself a chance to win Georgia by pulling out of there in August.

[ Parent ]
Part and parcel IMO
I also think she would have won the states you list. Heck, had she been on the ticket, Obama would have had a shot.  
[ Parent ]
Disagree with the latter
Obama wasn't going to win Kentucky, Arkansas and West Virginia under any circumstance.  His skin color was way too much of a burden there.  There could have been 25% unemployment in those states and McCain would still have beaten Obama.

Heck Bush in 2008 would have beaten Obama in most of the Southern states. (the exceptions would have been the states on the coast, VA, NC, FL, SC, and GA).

[ Parent ]
Yes
And SC is possibly in reach in 2012 in a landslide election. That would be awesome to win there.
[ Parent ]
I think Texas is in reach in 2012
The only states which I think are out of reach are:
AL, MS, LA, TN, OK, ID, WY, and ID.  And probably AR, WV, and KY, although it is possible that after 4 years of Obama in the Presidency, they may see him as a regular Democrat and not a black dude.

[ Parent ]
Maybe
Anything below ten points is certainly possible. That would be MO, AZ, MT, GA, ND, SD and SC. With TX just outside that but not entirely out of the question.
[ Parent ]
Did you think Indiana was in play
in 2008?  How about North Carolina (without Edwards as the candidate)?  

Some states shift much faster than others.  Texas with its Hispanic population and with Bush gone is one of those states.

And Arizona should be a purple state.  If McCain wasn't the candidate, Obama would have won Arizona narrowly.    

[ Parent ]
I meant
did you think Indiana would be in play in 2008 back in 2005?
[ Parent ]
I didn't think Indiana was in play in 2008
At least not until late summer. I thought the early polls showing it competitive were a temporary blip caused by the Dem primary and the campaign there. Glad to be proved wrong there. I always thought Obama could win North Carolina. But I agree with your larger point.
[ Parent ]
I always thought IN-Gov would be more competitive
than IN-Pres.

Damn you, Mitch Daniels!

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
Well, also,
JLT, what was your f***ing problem?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
No, he might have won WV and AR if there were 25% unemployment.
KY possibly no, as well as states like AL.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas
are the four states where Obama's numbers among whites dropped significantly from Kerry's in 2008.  The rest of the states, Obama's performance among whites was slightly worse or equal to Kerry's or better.

[ Parent ]
She polled very poorly in the upper mid-west and pacific coast
Though I think she would still have won the election and most likely those states it wouldn't have been by the same margins as Obama meaning no Senators Merkley and Franken.
[ Parent ]
I agree with this
Clinton would have underperformed Obama in states like Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Virginia, and Colorado.  She probably would have underperformed slightly or done the same in Nevada and New Mexico, Clinton would have done slightly better among Hispanics (Obama got nearly 70%, so it would be hard to do much better), and do worse among white independents.
On the other hand, Clinton would have done much better than Obama in states like Ohio and Florida, the Northeast (Obama's performance in Massachusetts and even New York was less than I would have expected for a Democrat in 2008) and the South (even with subpar black turnout, she would have gotten the votes of many Southern white women.)  She certainly would have pulled Texas into single digits, IMO.

My feeling is that Clinton would have won by slightly more in the popular vote (maybe by 7.5-8.5%), and done about the same in the EC, either 360 or 368 EV depending on Kentucky.  

[ Parent ]
Yup
Ohio would have been a cakewalk for her. McCain would have spent all summer in the pacific NW and upper midwest.  
[ Parent ]
And this is because the opponent was McCain
if Romney or some other Repub had been nominated, either Obama or Clinton would have won 10+% national margins.  McCain's nomination single-handedly saved the Repubs from losing the independent vote by 25% (He lost it 52-44) and draining a large portion of moderate Repubs.  

McCain held on to a large portion of anti-Bush Repubs and independents which Romney or another right-wing Repub would have lost.  Outside the South, the Repub brand is completely toast.  The Repubs still don't get this, they think that McCain lost because he was not conservative enough.  I think they will nominate a true wingnut in 2012, and get absolutely clobbered outside the South.  

[ Parent ]
That was always the thing
We had two very strong viable candidates with different strengths and weaknesses and different electoral map routes to the presidency. The problem late in the primary was getting that through to PUMA type deadenders who were blinded to reason by their animosity. Personally, like many I always had faith in Obama, his personal strengths, and those of his candidacy and campaign and I was glad to be proved right in the end.
[ Parent ]
this discussion is probably not appropriate for SSP, but
yes clinton would have won different states and would probably have won the presidency, but she would have had a lot less money and that would have affected the playing field, too.
[ Parent ]
She wouldn't have raised 750 mil
but she probably would have had between 500 mil at least, which would have been enough to swamp McCain.  
[ Parent ]
Alot depends
On if Obama is on the bottom of the ticket. If he were then  black turnout in many states like NC and GA could be just as heavy as the actual election.
[ Parent ]
Obama won PA-11, and by 15?
Dang.

And here I was thinking it was similar to Murtha's district.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
Yup
Obama performed really well in all of eastern PA. Better than Kerry or Gore.  
[ Parent ]
Obama lost Murtha's district
51%-49%, the only district Kerry won that Obama didn't...although Kerry won it 51%-49%, so it wasn't a big swing.

Before the election though, during the primaries, we were all being warned Obama wouldn't win in the Poconos...it seemed like it wasn't possible to me either

Then something happened...I think it was a combination of Biden's popularity and Sarah Palin's unpopularity. She just didn't work in Pennsylvania...scared the crap out of people. I met someone recently who lives in East Stroudsburg who was talking about how he was leaning McCain and went to a rally with Sarah Palin in September and after he left, he decided on Obama...and then voted Kanjorski too, even though he wasn't going to. Kanjorski owes his job to Sarah Palin too.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
The big change in PA-12 is from 2000 to 2008.
Gore won it by 11.
[ Parent ]
Lampson was their only failure
And considering the odds he faced, I don't think it was all that great of one. Meanwhile, they can't be blamed for Boyda - she didn't accept their help. Mahoney did himself in, as did Bill Jefferson. And Don Cazayoux got utterly screwed by one of the most self-absored jackasses ever to wage a hopeless independent campaign in many years.
[ Parent ]
Agreed on all counts
I still wonder what Bill Cassidy promised Michael Jackson.  
[ Parent ]
A glove
Actually, my guess is that Jackson deluded himself.  He took 100% of his primary vote and inflated it because of Obama helping black turnout.  Then figured he could squeeze out a three way race when he couldn't win the Democratic primary.

Jackson wasn't a king but he was a king-maker.  Unfortunately.

[ Parent ]
DCCC didn't fail Lampson
Lampson failed Lampson.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I think we should have realized Lampson didn't have a good hold on the district when he only took it with 52% despite being the only mainstream candidate on the ballot.  They managed to get 42% to write in Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, amazingly enough.  That should have been a sign right there, that nutty Sekula-Gibbs probably would have won had she been on the ballot.  If Lampson couldn't destroy her as a write-in candidate, I guess he never really did have a shot against a non-controversial guy like Olson in a presidential year.
[ Parent ]
I was thinking that also.
And I was surprised that he lost by only about 5% against Olson. If he had worked the district harder, he might have pulled out the win.

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)
[ Parent ]
Gibbs
Gibbs actually won the special election to fill Delay's seat after he resigned.  Can't remember if Lampson was on the ballot for the special election, but know Gibbs was.  Narrowly winning an election against a write-in candidate was a definite warning sign.  However, I don't think Gibbs was considered that bad of a candidate at the time--all of her problems happened after the election during her short term in Congress.

Despite all of this, I thought Lampson would hang on.  The power of incumbency is great and he had some big players on his side because of his chairmanship of the space subcommittee (NASA being in his district).  Unfortunately, his political/campaigning skills seem rather ordinary and, given the steep hill he had to climb, he just wasn't a good enough.

[ Parent ]
He specifically declined to run in the special
To concentrate on the general.
[ Parent ]
Sekula-Gibbs
On paper she looked like a good candidate. A Houston city councilwoman and the widow (though remarried, i believe) of a popular Houston anchorman (who tragically died of cancer a few years back. His ordeal and death was huge news in Houston)
[ Parent ]
Not really sure you could call the DCCC's efforts in TX-22 going "all out"
They basically abandoned the race after the first week of September, only to dump a bunch of last minute cash in the final week of October. They certainly spent a tidy sum on Lampson ($1.3m), but there were other districts that they spent more liberally on.
[ Parent ]
Well, it was one of the big cash races. . .before it wasn't
It looks like they really tried to save him, but the ads just weren't working.
[ Parent ]
Boyda
Boyda had a base problem too.
There were numerous base precincts where there were significant under-votes.  There were actually more under-votes than the margin of loss.  I know there is some Open Left bashing here, but Chris Bowers was spot on when he said that every last Democrat elected to congress depends on registered Democrats and liberals.  Boyda alienated quite a few of them.  
It is also worth noting that Perot got his second largest margin in 1992 in the KS-02.

We can't stop here; this is bat country. -HST
What did she do to alienate her base?
I saw her celebrated even on OpenLeft for her fight against FISA

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Average Democrats don't give a shit about FISA
Only the educated ones and the netroots do.  And even then, it is not absolute, for example, I supported the FISA compromise.  Of course, my reasoning was that I hoped that President Obama would use it against Repubs and conservatives.
[ Parent ]
Right
but what was her base problem, that's what I don't get. I always saw her base as moderate women, which is exactly the demographic Lynn Jenkins was able to steal from her. If I had to guess, I'd say her FISA stance was a negative for her in Kansas, not a positive and may have even contributed to her defeat, so I don't see a base problem unless her base wasn't liberals.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Jenkins
I think you are spot on about Jenkins.  If Republicans nominated more moderate candidates (at least ones that tried to project a moderate image), then we would have trouble holding the recently won, R leaning seats.  I know there's no way to prove it, but I'm convinced Boyda would have beat Ryan in a rematch.
[ Parent ]
Not much doubt she would have beaten Ryun
And probably by a large margin. Like the other 2006 retreads.
[ Parent ]
agreed

[ Parent ]
Immigration and guns, but mostly just her personality
Immigration killed her in Leavenworth's black churches; I spent all summer trying to talk people into the idea that she was with us on most things.  The black churches in Leavenworth are remarkably progressive.  Guns killed her in Lawrence, she seriously underperformed Obama and even Slattery in a couple of precincts in Douglas county; a lot of that was on guns.
In the end though, the base just didn't like Nancy that much.  She would regularly turn down invitations to local events, and when she did come to county events, she seemed truly uncomfortable around our base.  Our base was just as uncomfortable around her.
KS-02 is a very polarized district, with large military bases in Ft Riley and Leavenworth, but large colleges in KU and K-State and a significant minority population.
Nancy is a former Johnson county Republican (Johnson county encompasses some relatively wealthy suburbs of KCMO on the Kansas side, in KS-03) and just didn't fit in with our base in a lot of the district (she actually did very well with our base in Topeka).

We can't stop here; this is bat country. -HST
[ Parent ]
+ FISA
Her stance on FISA was spot on for the district, lots of old Perot voters, Libertarians often get a pretty could chunk of the vote here (I think the L in the Senate race against Roberts got 7% in the KS-02).  Even Jenkins was against FISA.  And Jenkins isn't moderate, she's just pro-choice.

We can't stop here; this is bat country. -HST
[ Parent ]
KS-02: The Hard Way | 61 comments

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