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SSP Daily Digest: 3/31

by: Crisitunity

Tue Mar 31, 2009 at 1:21 PM EDT


NH-Sen: The scurvy dogs at ARG! take their first reading of the 2010 New Hampshire senate race since Judd Gregg announced his retirement, finding that Rep. Paul Hodes beats ex-Sen. John Sununu 42-36. Hodes leads Sununu 38-31 among independents. (MoE ±4.2%)

KY-Sen: In the days leading up to 1Q fundraising reports, Jim Bunning has publicly admitted that his fundraising has been "lousy," although he says "Surprisingly, we've had pretty good success the last month." He's looking forward to some April fundraisers starring such luminaries as Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, and fellow baseball celeb Tommy Lasorda.

GA-Gov: Roy Barnes is sounding very interested in another try at the governor's race. Barnes got bounced by Sonny Perdue after one term in 2002, but populist anger plus demographic changes in Georgia may make a Barnes comeback feasible. (Insider Advantage found earlier this month that Barnes would defeat several of the likely GOP candidates.)

LA-02: Joseph Cao is signaling he may actually break ranks and vote for the Obama budget this week, telling The Hill that his constituents are "split." (In the sense that they are likely to "split" his head open if he keeps voting the party line.)

History: Roll Call takes an interesting look back at the spate of special elections during the 1993-1994 session of Congress, and the structural reasons we aren't likely to see a repeat of the disastrous 1994 election again.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 3/31
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It's really mindblowing...
that there are people in this country willing to plop down thousands for the pleasure of having dinner with Jim Bunning, Tommy Lasorda and Haley Barbour. What a crew...

Fascinating analysis -- Kudos to Roll Call
I actually did a research paper on special elections last year.  Something interesting I observed in my findings was that, from 1968 through 2008, an incumbent party that has two or more net special election losses between Presidential elections loses the White House the next cycle.  The sole exception to this pattern, as illustrated by Roll Call, was Bill Clinton in 1994 -- and that could arguably be attributed to a kind of divided government effect of the Republicans having already taken control of the legislative branch.

Bob Krause
Can't say Grassley has much to worry about from this guy.  He hasn't held elected office since the 1970s when he was a state rep.  Also, not independently wealthy.  Looks like a sacrificial lamb.

[ Parent ]
What?!?
Tommy Lasorda is a republican?  Man, wait till I tell my staunchly Democratic friend who loves Lasorda and the Dodgers about that.  

Baseball players and Republicans
I notice theres alot of Republican professional baseball players (Im not necessarily singling out Lasorda as Im not sure he was ever a professional player. Maybe just a minor league one for all i know). I would hope they are as pro-union for 99% of the rest of the unions as they are their own union. And for those who dont follow baseball (I use to alot more than i do now, i admit)...believe me, they think their own union is the most important thing the world has to offer. Im just hoping the Republicans in the MLB are also so-called 'pro-union' Republicans. And not just simply care about their own but 'to hell with the working class'.

A lot of football players are republicans
Especially quarterbacks.  Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, John Elway are just a few.

One odd exception is former 49'ers QB Steve Young who is not only Mormon but a direct descendent of Brigham Young.  He's a Democrat and even opposed prop 8 in California last year, even donating money to opponents of the amendment.


[ Parent ]
I'll have to...
remember that about Young... When you consider the party affiliations overall of the top 1% of wage earners who are white males, it doesn't surprise that they're mostly republicans. Of course the black players who receive the handoffs and catch the passes are probably dems, if they're anything.

[ Parent ]
I'm sure most are Dems
But I'll bet the % of AA NFL players who are Democrats is well under the national average of close to 90%.

Peter Boulware (former FSU and Baltimore Ravens superstar) is a republican who ran for a Florida state house seat last year as a republican.  Though even with his rockstar status in Tallahassee he still lost in a heavily democratic, majority AA district.  


[ Parent ]
Lynn Swan comes to mind, too.
Black, Republican, football player.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
JC Watts
He's probably the most famous black Republican football player--certainly the one most politically successful.  I don't think he ever made it in the pros, however.

[ Parent ]
The CFL
He wasn't good enough to make the NFL, but had some success in the Canadian Football League for 5 seasons.

[ Parent ]
Then there's the NBA
Oddly though, basketball is real Democratic leaning, even taking into account the high number of black NBA players.  NBA Commissioner David Stern gives tons of money to Dems and  Phil Jackson has thought about running for Senate or Gov in Montana as a Democrat.

[ Parent ]
That would be interesting
Jackson would certainly be a unique candidate with his personal beliefs.  I believe he's not christian and goes by a mix of Eastern philosophies.  They call him the Zen Master for a reason.

[ Parent ]
The Mailman
Interestingly ive heard that the Mailman Karl Malone is a Republican. Hes a Louisiana native, so I wonder if hed ever run for office there. Charles Barkley use to be but hes done a real 180 politically. I believe Shaquille O'Neal is also a Republican (though not a real surprise as he comes from a military family).

[ Parent ]
Speaking from expreience
My uncle who lives in SLC is personal friends with Karl Malone and back when I was about 12 years old I went fishing with my uncle and Malone on a few occasions.  

He was a great guy as I remember.  But yes, he's known to be quite conservative and is an avid outdoorsman.  As far as I know he still lives most of the year in his suburban SLC mansion and has no interest in running for office.


[ Parent ]
Though it was pretty close.
Boulware lost by only about 400 votes out of 85,000 cast Granted, he and the state party spent megabucks on the race.

[ Parent ]
Steve Young
Hes actually a Democrat? I thought he was not only a Republican but had been courted, in the past, by the GOP to run for elective office in Utah.

Just read this from Wikipedia in Steve Young's bio:
On October 31, 2008, campaign signs opposing Proposition 8 (a ballot measure in California, publicly supported by officials of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, which would reserve marriage exclusively to one man and one woman) were observed at the Youngs' home. After initial reports concluded that both Youngs were openly opposing Proposition 8, later statements asserted that Steve was not taking a public stand on this measure, (though the couple did write a $50,000 check to a group opposing Prop 8) and that the public opposition to the proposition was coming solely from his wife Barbara, whose brother is gay.[13][14][15][16][17]


[ Parent ]
I believe Tom Brady is a Republican, too
Kind of odd given that he was born and raised in the SF Bay Area (and graduated from a San Mateo HS), spent college in liberal Ann Arbor and played his whole football career in the liberal Boston area.

[ Parent ]
Coaches tend to be too
Bobby Bowden (FSU) and Joe Paterno (Penn St.) are both republicans.

And of course Florida Gators legendary QB Tim Tebow is an extremely onservative republican.


[ Parent ]
Young Is a Republican
Young spoke at the Republican National Convention in 2000.  Unless he's had a change of heart (lots have since 2000), he's Republican.  

[ Parent ]
Curt Schilling
campaigned for Bush in New Hampshire in 2004 right after the Sox won the World Series.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
J-Street:
Jews are just as partisanly Democratic as they always were:

Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican or what?
                                           Total
Strong Democrat 50
Weak Democrat 11
Independent-lean Democrat 9
Independent 7
Independent-lean Republican 7
Weak Republican 6
Strong Republican 11

Thinking in political terms, would you say you that you are conservative, moderate, progressive, or liberal?
Total
Conservative 23
Moderate 28
Liberal 33
Progressive 17

In other words, what Jewish Republicans?  


Yep
I think 9/11 moved a few of them towards republicans for a breif period of time.  They've by and large come home since then thanks to the disasterous Bush wars and a natural attraction to progressive policies.

[ Parent ]
I think even then that was overstated
Al Gore just had a particularly good performance with Jews because of Lieberman (bleh) and the popularity of Clinton. George W. Bush never played well with Jews, for whom public anti-intellectualism is not appreciated.  

[ Parent ]
And religious demagogory
Of all religious groups they are among the least religious.  That recent survey on religion in the U.S. showed that only like half even believe in a god.  Most I know are of that mindset and cannot stand evangelicals.  They identify with their religion more as a sign of heritage than actual religion.

[ Parent ]
Self-described Jews (as a religion, not just 'ethnicity') who are actually atheists
You see the same thing over in Europe in many Catholic countries. They will call their religion Catholicism but many of them dont even believe in God. Their Catholicism is like another ethnic identity. Kind of like how someone would call themself both German and Bavarian or Italian and Sicilian. Many have more than 1 'ethnic identity' and for some it includes their religion. My ex-gf lives in the Czech Rep., in the more conservative area there (near the Austrian border), and i can definitely tell that there are many Catholics who dont even believe in their own faith. They are big followers of certain traditions, though, like Christmas, Easter, etc. But thats a country with a significant amount of self-described atheists. But Id imagine theyre more concentrated in more culturally liberal areas like Prague.

[ Parent ]
Now where's that political cartoon
where the elephant admits to doing a lot of things that are bad for Jews and Israel and then ends the six-panel comic by grabbing a Jewish lady by the shoulders and exclaiming "BUT DON'T VOTE FOR THE DEMS--IT'S BAD FOR THE JEWS!!"

* rummages through his politics pictures folder *

Seems to be a 2006 cartoon by Steve Greenberg for the Jewish Journal.  And it's not a Jewish lady, it's a Jewish man with a yarmulke.  (Another cartoon has a Jewish lady; I was confusing it with that one.)  The filename, if you want to try to find it, is either qqxsg.gif or qqxsgDontVoteDem.gif.

Here's the script:

[Elephant] Okay, so maybe we embrace all kinds of fundamentalist Christian agendas, and have even opposed stem-cell research.
[Elephant] And Bush's policies in the Mideast, have utterly inflamed and radicalized the Muslim world against the U.S. and Israel.
[Elephant] And by throwing Iraq into total chaos it actually worsened global terrorism and gave Al-Qaida a big new recruiting boost.
[Elephant] And by eliminating Saddam it maybe gave Iran a free hand to develop nukes and to arm Hezbollah.
[Elephant] And by getting so bogged down in Iraq, we might not be able to come to Israel's aid in a crisis.
[Elephant] But you still had better not vote for the Democrats!
* Elephant, trembling and with a worried expression, grabs a man (wearing a yarmulke) on the sholders.
[Elephant] They're bad for the Jews!

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...


[ Parent ]
Here they are.
http://greenberg-art.com/.Toon...

http://greenberg-art.com/.Toon...

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)


[ Parent ]
The ones in Central Brooklyn
who are actually Democrats but voted 60%-70% for Bush and McCain

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
I'm frankly doubting those numbers
If they were true, these particular Jews would be different from the ones sampled in this poll, who mostly identify as either liberal or progressive.  

[ Parent ]
No it's true
I broke them down a few weeks ago on my website from raw numbers at the BOE. Obama lost four Brooklyn Assembly Districts. The district centered in Borough Park he lost 70%-29% while Gore won the district in 2000. He lost the district that includes Brighton Beach and Coney Island as well.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
What are those
Ultra-orthodox districts or something?  Any idea if they usually vote democratic?  It could just be that they always vote republican, but went Dem in 2000 only because of Lieberman.

[ Parent ]
All local politicians are Democrats
Democrats in the State Legislature, State Senate, New York City Council. These ares are mostly in NY-09 and NY-08, Weiner and Nadler's districts.

For President, they voted for Clinton and Gore then went back to the Republicans where they were in the 1980's for Reagan. Lieberman did help alot in 2000 though.

For instant, Dov Hikind, who represents the Assembly District McCain won 70% of the vote in endorsed Hillary in the primaries, then McCain in the general election.

They are ultra-orthodox Jewish districts as well as wealthy areas like Brighton Beach. Obama did better than Kerry in some of the rich Italian/Irish Catholic areas like Bay Ridge, Bensonhurst, and Howard Beach/Ozone Park/Rockaways in Queens, but worse in the Jewish neighborhoods.

Most of the, what 22%?, of Jews who voted Republican come from here I suspect.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
LA-02
I hope Cao's constituents can show a little restraint and not literally "split" his head open, but rather do something more distracting and painful, like picket his office or vote him out in two years, respectively.


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