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NY-20: Murphy Leads Final Poll By 4

by: Crisitunity

Fri Mar 27, 2009 at 12:23 PM EDT


Siena College (PDF) (3/25-26, likely voters, 3/9-10 in parentheses):

Scott Murphy (D): 47 (41)
Jim Tedisco (R): 43 (45)
Eric Sundwall (L): 2 (1)
(MoE: 3.2%)

If I had a Drudge siren, I'd be breaking it out right now. There's been blogosphere whispers for the last few days of various leaked polls showing Murphy within a point or two or even up by a point, but nothing quite of this magnitude: Scott Murphy has turned a four-point deficit from two weeks ago into a four-point lead in a public poll. Before we start dancing in the end zone, though, we have to remember that this is a low-turnout special election, and whatever happens is going to be decided by GOTV and ground game. Even if we're peaking at the right time, the key is going to be actually getting those Murphy voters to the polls.

The GOP registration edge in the district isn't helping Tedisco much. Part of the problem is that Murphy has the support of 84% of the Democrats, while Tedisco has the support of only 64% of the Republicans. The poll also has crosstabs of the regions within the district: while Murphy is remaining steady in the region he's from (Essex/Warren/Washington Counties), he's gained 8% since last poll in Rensselaer/Saratoga Counties (to 43%) and 7% in the Hudson Valley (to 46%). Combined with his 58% in the north, that's enough to put him over the top.

There's still one wrinkle in this poll: it includes Libertarian candidate Eric Sundwall, who got kicked off the ballot yesterday for not having enough valid petition signatures. While I'd expect more of Sundwall's votes to migrate to Tedisco than Murphy, some of his would-be voters may simply stay home, and at any rate, Sundwall's share in this poll is still smaller than the Murphy/Tedisco margin.

UPDATE by James L.: A new DCCC poll has Murphy leading Tedisco by a 43-41 margin. No details are available yet on its sample size or the name of the outfit that conducted the poll.
Crisitunity :: NY-20: Murphy Leads Final Poll By 4
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NY-20: Murphy Leads Final Poll By 4 | 32 comments
Win or lose
I say bravo to Scott Murphy.  When this started I didn't think he had a snowball's chance in hell.
I predicted a Murphy win at the outset
Not sure why the CW seemed to be that voters would go with another republican hack in Congress.
The late Obama ad is great
SUSA just put out Obama's March approvals are they are fantastic, even at 60% upstate.  

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

SUSA
3/24/09

New York:
Approve - 72%
Disapprove - 23%

Upstate NY:
Approve - 60%
Disapprove - 34%


The Sundwall effect is nearly zero
2% of Dems and 2% of republicans said they'd vote for Sundwall.  Net effect of his being removed from the ballot according to this poll is almost zero.
Margin of error
Correctly me if I'm wrong, I think you're not taking into account the margin of error here, which would actually be higher than the poll margin of error because the Democrats and Republicans subsets have smaller n's and therefore a larger margin of error.  That would mean that it is statistically possible that Sundwall would have hurt both candidates equally or one more than the other.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't want to
draw any conclusions one way or another about the predicted behavior of a sub-sample that's basically 2% of the larger sample. Even with an n of about 900, we're talking about fewer than 20 Sundwall voters in the poll. I'll just take comfort in the fact that there are so few of them to begin with.
[ Parent ]
Partially correct
Subsamples do have larger margins of errors, however, the margin of error is calculated based on the 95% error brackets at 50%.  When you get down to 1 or 2 %, the error range shrinks. (Hence why 0% (or negative) is "within the margin of error", but it is not actually a possible outcome)
[ Parent ]
NY
I still see Tedisco winning in a walk.  We haven't been able to mobilize our troops in any special election since Nov 4th, And I doubt this will be any different.  I still Tedisco winning by 10ish.
Is there ANY race over the next few years you feel good about?
Because your posts are bordering on concern troll level.
[ Parent ]
This is NY, not LA or GA
Huge difference.  It is close and could go either way.  You couldn't say that about GA Senate for sure, which was an uphill battle from day 1.

The trend has been Murphy the whole time.  GOTV is crucial though, so I wouldn't count this chicken just yet.

[ Parent ]
No surpise with Tekzilla
like I said before, this poster is a worry bot. You remind me of the paranoid Mort Goldman in Family Guy. Yeeeesh...
[ Parent ]
How do we know this is the "final" poll?

Because the election's on Tuesday?
I mean, it's certainly possible that someone like Quinnipiac could still jump in here. But this is Siena's turf, and they're the only public pollster who's gotten involved so far.
[ Parent ]
Libertarian Sundwall endorses Murphy
Haha

http://www.thealbanyproject.co...

March 27, 2009
The decision of the Board of Election to remove my name from the ballot proves once again that the political system in New York is rigged by professionals to make sure that average citizens are excluded from the process. While the two major parties could choose their candidates in a smoke-filled room, they made us go out and attempt the impossible: obtain 3500 valid signatures in just 12 days. We came very close but ultimately, the technicalities they built into the law to disenfranchise the people proved too strong to overcome.

In addition, I faced baseless allegations of wrongdoing and threats of criminal prosecution in a lawsuit brought by Tedisco supporters. While I wanted to file a lawsuit in Albany County to overturn the Board's decision, we got stuck down in Dutchess County where the machine felt they would have a friendly bench. While the court there should have dismissed that lawsuit as moot, the judge instead was prepared to keep us down there litigating silly issues concerning the Libertarian Party emblem and whether witnessing signatures from outside the district constitutes fraud. There was no end in sight and we might have been down there for days facing the inevitable loss with no time to appeal and no time to campaign either. The Tedisco supporters who brought the case sought and received an order requiring me to be present in Court, thereby preventing me from campaigning.

I was also concerned that continued litigation would jeopardize the ballots of military personnel and disabled voters who use special machines that need to be programmed several days before the election.

Faced with the prospect of spending much of the rest of campaign on the witness stand being harassed by the machine's hired gun, I chose not to play that game. Since I could not file suit in the county of my choosing, I decided to end my candidacy and not subject myself and my family to any further abuse, threats or harassment from the political machine.

Thus, the Stalinist New York Election Law forced us to spend the first half of the campaign getting signatures and the second half fighting a lost cause in court.

The voters will be deprived of any choice but the two parties that have destroyed the nation's economy in recent years and have us bogged down in two land wars in Asia.

Mr. Tedisco denies any involvement with the concerted effort by his supporters to knock me off the ballot. I don't believe him. The ruthless effort by his supporters to knock me off the ballot without a word of protest by him proves his unfitness for any office let alone Congress in these critical times.

I will be voting for Scott Murphy on Tuesday. While we disagree on some important issues, I find him to be a man of honor, a good family man and successful businessman. Unlike Tedisco, he actually lives in the District. And, unlike Mr. Tedisco, I view Scott's business success as a virtue, not a vice.

I urge my supporters and all those who believe in open and free elections to show their disgust at the tactics of the Republican political machine to win at all costs. Please join me in voting for Scott Murphy on Tuesday.

I want to thank all those who worked tirelessly on my behalf and who donated their precious funds to help this effort. And I wish to thank the media for all their courtesies during this Sysiphean struggle.

We live to fight another day.

Eric Sundwall


Awesome
Haw haw
[ Parent ]
Yowza
What a deserved slam at Tedisco and the Republican machine.  They try it every where because they have nothing but contempt for the voting public.
[ Parent ]
I'm not a fan of third parties, but
the stuff described in the second paragraph is really ridiculous.
[ Parent ]
I don't doubt it for a second
He's probably telling the truth.  I can see the republican machine in NY pulling that kind of crap on the guy.
[ Parent ]
Starting to feel really good about this race
If it turns out to be really close the Republicans may find they made a serious mistake in running him off the ballot.
[ Parent ]
the ironic thing
Is that polling was showing Sundwall wasn't even peeling off many if any more of Tedisco's votes than Murphy's.  So in kicking Sundwall off the ballot and having him strongly endorse Murphy potentially hurts Tedisco a good deal more than if he were allowed to run.
[ Parent ]
Good going there.
They just pissed off a bunch of politically incitable voters who probably weren't going to vote for your opponent in the first place.  Good job!

What's next, ballot fraud?  "OMG you're a registered Libertarian; you can't vote in this election!"?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
GG me for mixed pronouns
Edit to first sentence:

They just pissed off a bunch of politically incitable voters who probably weren't going to vote for their opponent at first.  However, they will now...

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
Fan-freaking-tastic!
Glad to hear the booted lib is endorsing Scott.

Where's that guy (andy?) that comes here and posts links to Tedisco's website claiming he's the best guy for the job and never sticks around to explain why?

Dem Internal has Murphy up by 2 as well
NRCC stoops to a new low
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

When all else fails I guess it's only expected that repubs will pull the 9/11 Bin Laden card.  Now they're trying it in NY-20.  Disgusting.

No BCRA disclosure at the end
It's a web ad. Meh.
[ Parent ]
Nothing to see with that ad...
been there, done that...EPIC fail!
[ Parent ]
And there's the Hail Mary
Seeing who is throwing it says exactly where this race is. I think you could make a good explanation of who controls each of the parties to a moderate/independent voter by showing the DNC Obama endorsement Ad versus this one as examples of what each party does with their last ad in a race that is tied.

I'm not sure if this ad is as bad as the Mike DeWine (OH) ad where they doctored the towers to be putting out more smoke. May be a tie.

[ Parent ]
Or Liddy Dole's closing ad
Didn't invoke terrorism but was almost as ugly.  Even her campaign manager came out recently admitting that "godless" ad was a disgusting hail mary out of desperation.
[ Parent ]
Previous results by county?
Hey!  I'm getting ready to follow the results here on Tuesday night!

I assume someone is pulling together the '08, and especially the '06 results for comparison.  I see they are available at http://www.elections.state.ny.us/

Indeed
2008
Columbia
Gillibrand 67%
Treadwell 33%

Delaware
Gillibrand 54%
Treadwell 46%

Dutchess
Gillibrand 60%
Treadwell 40%

Essex
Gillibrand 52%
Treadwell 48%

Greene
Gillibrand 56%
Treadwell 44%

Otsego
Gillibrand 54%
Treadwell 46%

Rensselaer
Gillibrand 64%
Treadwell 36%

Saratoga
Gillibrand 62%
Treadwell 38%

Warren
Gillibrand 64%
Treadwell 36%

Washington
Gillibrand 66%
Treadwell 34%

2006
Columbia
Gillibrand 58%
Sweeney 42%

Delaware
Sweeney 54%
Gillibrand 46%

Dutchess
Gillibrand 55%
Sweeney 45%

Essex
Gillibrand 52%
Sweeney 48%

Greene
Sweeney 52%
Gillibrand 48%

Otsego
Gillibrand 52%
Sweeney 48%

Rensselaer
Gillibrand 54%
Sweeney 46%

Saratoga
Gillibrand 53%
Sweeney 47%

Warren
Gillibrand 54%
Sweeney 46%

Washington
Gillibrand 53%
Sweeney 47%

[ Parent ]
2006
It seems like there is specific county to look for as the results to come in (even though Saratoga is the biggest).  Gillibrand seemed pretty stable across all of the counties.  So too in 08.

If all 10 counties are pretty similar in their demographics, we may know rather early what the results are going to be.  

[ Parent ]
NY-20: Murphy Leads Final Poll By 4 | 32 comments

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