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MA-Gov: Nobody Likes Patrick, Either

by: Crisitunity

Thu Mar 26, 2009 at 2:34 PM EDT


Suffolk University (PDF) (3/17-20, registered voters, no trendlines):

Deval Patrick (D-inc): 30
Tim Cahill (D): 35
(MoE: 4.9%)

It's become pretty clear in the last few months that the nation's governors have become the least popular people in the country, as they bear the brunt of decreased revenues and become the public face of tough service cuts/tax hikes choices. Add Deval Patrick to near the top of the list of unpopular governors. Suffolk takes the temperature of Massachusetts, and people there are even surlier than usual: Patrick's job approval rating is 40-49, and on the question of whether he deserves re-election, the response is 34-47. (On the broader question of favorability, people still like Patrick as a person; his favorables are 44-43.)

Buried deep in the poll is also the interesting bit that I've blockquoted above: Patrick is so unpopular that he loses a hypothetical primary to treasurer Tim Cahill (who has previously expressed some interest, but is reportedly not running). Nevertheless, things aren't so bad that Bay Staters are willing to consider a Republican for governor (they say 'no thanks' 52 to 34; the poll doesn't name a specific GOPer). So if there's going to be any action in this seat in 2010, it's going to be in the primary.

There are some other provocative odds and ends in the poll's fine print; people are both strongly supportive of both keeping gay marriage and legalizing casino gambling. Also, when presented with a list of more than a dozen possible names for the rather morbid topic of succeeding Ted Kennedy, nobody even clears 10%. The top vote-getter is his nephew, ex-Rep. Joe Kennedy (at 8%). AG (and Aqua Teen Hunger Force arch-enemy) Martha Coakley is second, at 6%.
Crisitunity :: MA-Gov: Nobody Likes Patrick, Either
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MA-Gov: Nobody Likes Patrick, Either | 33 comments
Governors may well be the first victims
of an insufficient stimulus.  
frylock for gov!
seriously though, isn't there a congressman out there who wants a promotion?  kerry'll be there for another 6 years at least, probably more, and a kennedy family member will probably get ted's seat.  it seems like someone could challenge patrick.

being normal is for the mediocre.
Question is which Kennedy.
Joe Jr.'s ex-wife holds a press conference on their failed marriage every time Joe shows an interest in running for something which essentially drove him out of politics.  However now that twins are grown up possible he might get back in.

You can cross off Michael (who if I recalled thought about running for the seat out in the Cape when it was open) since he slept with his babysitter.

Perhaps Max, Rory, or even Teddy Jr?

[ Parent ]
You can also cross Michael off the list since he's dead
[ Parent ]
Caroline needs to move
Deval can't go any lower.
[ Parent ]
A repub Governor in MA
Would be irrelevant anyway.  The legislature is something like 85% Democratic.
Here's the specifics
The Massachusetts Senate:

-Dems:35
-GOP:5

Voting Majority: 87 percent

The Massachusetts House of Representatives

-Dems:143
-GOP:16
-Vacant:1

Voting Majority: 89.9 percent

You add all the seats together and you get this:

-Dems:178
-GOP:21
-Vacant:1

Voting Majority: 89 percent

You were close though.

[ Parent ]
I'm thinking
Hawaii and Massachusetts are right there with the highest % of Dems in the state legislature.  Rhode Island is up there too as well as a few other northeast states and of course WV and AR.
[ Parent ]
Right about Hawaii
State senate is split 23-2, state house is split 46-5.  The amusing thing is that Republicans were actually pretty competitive right before Lingle got elected governor.  They had like 7 state senators and over 20 state representatives.
[ Parent ]
List in Full
After some research, there are more Dem supermajorities (or near ones) than we think.  Here they are.  The forumla is State, State House (Dems/Total), State Senate (Dems/Total):

ME 20/35 96/151
NH 14/24 232/392
VT 23/30 101/150
MA 35/40 143/160
CT 24/36 112/151
RI 69/75 33/38
DE 16/21 29/41
MD 104/141 33/47
AR 27/35 71/100
IL 70/118 37/59
IA 31/50
CA 51/80 25/40
KY 64/100
NY 107/150
MI 67/110
MN 87/134 47/67
MS 75/122
NV 28/42
NJ 50/80 23/40
NM 45/70 27/42
NC 30/50
OR 36/60 19/30
WA 63/98 31/49
WV 71/100 26/34

I almost could have included the Colorado House of Representatives at 38/65, and would have before we lost two house seats last cycle.

[ Parent ]
In California's case
it's a "supermajority in name only" because we don't have the 2/3 necessary for tax and budget stuff, and the Republicans are punch-drunk on the "no new taxes" Kool-Aid.

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)
[ Parent ]
Very true
No, you're absolutely right, but one we get Maldonado and the Berryhills, that might change.  Could we change the rule if we had all three branches or is it enshrined in the California State Constitution.  If it's just in some sort of rules, we should be able to kill it.
[ Parent ]
I wonder
How is this indpendent redistricting for state legislative districts going to shake out?  Given how incumbent friendly the current maps are (similar to the current CA U.S. House districts), it would seem Dems may actually grow their margins after 2012 with the new maps.  Has anyone done an analysis of the new redistricting procedure for CA yet?
[ Parent ]
I think this country would be much better off
if the Repubs had this kind of representation in every state.
[ Parent ]
The Massachusetts Model
In Massachussetts it is ok to occassionally elect a Republican mayor or Governor.  People go to Fenway Park and some root for the Yankees.  But it is not OK to elect a Republican to a federal office (President, Senator, US House).  I am certainly rooting for the day when the entire Norteast follows the Massachussetts model.
[ Parent ]
I meant the numbers in the state legislature
I want Repubs to have those Massachusetts numbers in every state.
[ Parent ]
Both
I want them shut out at the federal level and insignificant at the state level.  A pleasant thought, isn't it.
[ Parent ]
Not necessarily
The problem that comes into play in states with overwhelming Democratic majorities is that the party gets lazy.  They don't go for an ambitious agenda, but rather play things safe to hold onto power.  

Just look at Massachusetts.  There is no excuse for a state with that heavily Democratic majorities not having true universal healthcare.  Instead they played it safe and went with the Mitt Romney model of forcing people to have insurance without doing much of anything to ensure it's affordable or quality coverage.  

Overwhelming majorities often provide nothing more than the status quo.

[ Parent ]
To me
Real health care reform is what you just said...affordable and quality health care. Not just merely getting everyone health insurance. I work a basic retail job and even I have health insurance. Problem is: The insurance sucks.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah, but
how many of those Dems are DINOs? A lot, as I understand it.
[ Parent ]
In the south
Yeah, they are.  But not in HI, OR, WA, CA, NY, CT, MA, RI, VT, and NH.
[ Parent ]
Also
MD and ME aren't blue dog states.
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't call them DINOS
But there is no doubt there are a lot of moderate Dems in those massive Democratic caucuses of the northeast.  If the overwhelming majority of them were progressives things like universal healthcare, gay marriage and civil unions wouldn't be so hard to pass in those states.

FYI, the New Hampshire state House passed a bill legalizing gay marriage today (civil unions were passed thee last year), and it only passed 186-179.  Anotherwards there were at least 50+ Democrats who did not vote for it.  

Dipshit DINO Governor Lynch has already said he won't sign the bill if it also passes the NH state Senate.

[ Parent ]
Here we go again
Okay, here's how this is likely to go down.  The state senate passes the bill.  Lynch either chickens or vetoes.  If it's the latter, many of the 50 errant dems come trotting back on the bill's side in the Assembly (there's little reason for them not to).  I'd like to see the margin in the Senate to see if the same would happen.  But I think this is a case of having one's cake and eating it too.
[ Parent ]
Lynch
I remember reading, either before or after the civil unions bill was signed into law, that Lynch actually had to mull it over before signing it. So it definitely makes me think, if he has to mull over civil unions, then he most certainly wouldnt sign the same sex marriage bill if passed by the state Senate. I hope it passes and he signs.
[ Parent ]
He's a complete hack
Lynch is the perfect example of a poll-driven Governor.  He loves the apperance of being bi-partisan and only signing off of legislation that is overwhelmingly popular.  Weird considering he doesn't see to have plans to run for any other office.  I'm so glad we have Hodes running for Senate and not this clown.
[ Parent ]
Gotta agree
Historically, every time we deny rights to one group of people it looks almost impossible to understand in retrospect.  Blacks, native americans, women, the disabled, the poor, hispanics, GLBT.  What counts far more is the common humanity of everybody than all these differences.

Unfortunately, the predastory policies of busdinesses make universal health care a national item.  As long as businesses can move to the worst states with the worst wages and benefits it will penalize the more responsible states.

Civil unions and gay marriages are different.  There is no competitive disadvantage and there may be a competitive advantage to being more open.  It really doesn't look like there are large numbers opposed to civil unions in the northeast but where the margins are very small (NY) it can be temporarily crippling.

We may need another 20 years in the Northeast for the whole thing to play out.  At least I hope so.

[ Parent ]
The one problem is that
a growing group solidly in the Democratic coalition opposes equal marriage rights and civil unions.  That is blacks and Hispanics.

GLBT groups really need to do massive outreach to the minority communities.

[ Parent ]
Thing is, though
Most blacks and latinos, elected to federal office at least and maybe in the state legislatures too, are pro-gay rights.  
[ Parent ]
Yes
That's pretty much true.  Outside of a few deep south black Congressmen the CBC has a pretty good record on gay rights.  

Of course on things like referendums on gay rights (See California and Florida 2008) they can have an adverse effect.

[ Parent ]
Not in New York
the Democrats blocking same-sex marriage are mostly minority legislators, especially in the Senate.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
...
As long as businesses can move to the worst states with the worst wages and benefits it will penalize the more responsible states.

Tell me about it! I have heard too many conservatives from those states say that they are business-friendly because of the "poor wages and benefits" (though they'd never use those words; they'd spin it as something positive). And they use propaganda pieces such as Chief Executive Magazine's new state rankings, which rate California, New York, and Michigan as the worst states to do business, and Texas and Nevada as the best. The thing that doesn't make sense is, if California is at #50, then why does it still have a GDP larger than all but 5-9 other countries (meaning it is larger than those of a lot of developed countries)?

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

[ Parent ]
Young generation
The younger generation (18-30) is very pro-gay rights and i cant see that changing as they get older. Maybe views on economic issues and foreign policy will but not gay rights. So in another 20 years when they are voting in much greater numbers and today's older generation (who are most opposed to gay rights) is dead...then gay rights will make extremely significant process.
[ Parent ]
MA-Gov: Nobody Likes Patrick, Either | 33 comments

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