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NY-Sen: Ten NY House Dems Warn State Party Chair Off Gillibrand

by: DavidNYC

Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 12:57 PM EDT

David Paterson's mistake gets uglier by the day:

Ten New York House members are warning state Party chairwoman June O'Neill not to use party resources to help promote Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in a potential primary next year. ...
Sources said this morning that the concern stems from the party sending out emails that included articles about Gillibrand's re-election bid next year, but nothing about the other candidates considering a run.

The signatories:

     Tim Bishop (NY-01)
     Steve Israel (NY-02)
     Carolyn McCarthy (NY-04)
     Jerrold Nadler (NY-08)
     Yvette Clark (NY-11)
     Nydia Velázquez (NY-12)
     Carolyn Maloney (NY-14)
     Jose Serrano (NY-16)
     Maurice Hinchey (NY-22)
     Eric Massa (NY-29)

Personally, I think the idea of the state party not helping the incumbent is a bit ridiculous, though obviously a few somewhat influential members of Congress (and a passel of backbenchers) disagree. On the other hand, how much help can the New York State Democratic Party actually offer a sitting senator?

I guess perceptions are probably what's most at stake here - anyone considering a challenge (or worried that the too-conservative Gillibrand might be getting too comfortable) doesn't want the conventional wisdom to congeal around the idea that she's untouchable. This seat might be safely blue in a general election, but this intra-party split is unpleasant in the extreme. (And note that it's not just upstate-vs.-city - Hinchey and Massa signed the letter, too.)

The full letter is available at the link above.

DavidNYC :: NY-Sen: Ten NY House Dems Warn State Party Chair Off Gillibrand

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NY-Sen: Ten NY House Dems Warn State Party Chair Off Gillibrand | 35 comments

So people don't like their Senator being appointed by fiat

I am shocked. Shocked!
If Gillibrand doesn't get a major primary challenge this year, she may well be the Senator for the rest of many of these Reps lives--barring a major realignment. At the very least they want to make sure enough pressure and influence is applied on their sudden Senator, you can't blame them for that.
Mostly though the soon-to-be 28th Amendment needs to pass and get ratified, stat.

by: Nico @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 12:14:01 PM CDT

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Or what?

Are they going to SUE the DNSC?

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 12:26:54 PM CDT

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Nadler and McCarthy

but not Maloney.

that's interesting. . .

by: andgarden @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 12:29:08 PM CDT

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Actually, she did

DavidNYC's list is incomplete.

This is going to be bloody. . .

by: andgarden @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 12:30:23 PM CDT

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and a good show!

I'm one whose all for the primary drama as long as it doesnt cost any seats or end up being damaging to the party.

A good healthy, bloody, primary is damn good for democracy.

by: Andrew @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 12:47:18 PM CDT

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My bad - fixed (eom)

by: DavidNYC @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 12:50:30 PM CDT

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not really, Gillibrand

has been in office what, a month, and polls have gone from her tying McCarthy to beating her by 5 months. She's the most talented and energetic campaigner in the delegation and can raise vast amounts of money. The establishment is behind her; she was a protege of Andrew Cuomo as well. You basically have a bunch of whiney backbenchers who are afraid this is their only chance at a possible promotion. Opposition will probably be split and I fully expect Gillibrand to run away with this. She's a raising star in the party, and I just loved that Patterson picked her. New York tends to like more moderate senators anyway and I don't demand an ultra-liberal from every Democratic state like some here, and Gillibrand has pretty much been with me on the major issues so far.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 16:59:48 PM CDT

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She is with the vast majority of Dems on all issues

Except guns and immigration. And she is adjusting accordingly to take in the views of her expanded constituency. Remember, Schumer isn't exactly a flaming liberal. If these pols don't like that Gillibrand was picked they should take it up with Paterson not her.

by: conspiracy @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 17:42:19 PM CDT

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New York Democrats are more conservative

on immigration that most people think. On that issue, it's literally The Bronx, Manhattan and minorities vs. Queens, Staten Island the rest of the state Democratic Party.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

by: nrafter530 @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 19:08:18 PM CDT

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Are there other reasons besides Gillibrand and Patterson?

I don't know, but it feels like there may be some other intentions by these house members that have not been spoken as of yet...I don't know.

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 12:34:53 PM CDT

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I think that when all is said and done, Gillibrand will come out on top.

She's very smart and talented, as clearly indicated by her ability to win a tough district and (if I'm not mistaken) speak Mandarin. I don't see her "conservatism" to be a huge problem myself. Yeah, she supports gun rights-but she had to represent a rural district. Yeah she had to position herself to the right on the immigration debate, but again she was in a tough district and the immigration debate was particularly toxic at the time, revolving around Spitzer's driver license proposal. However, on most issues, she's been pretty good, and she's shown that since her appointment she's willing to reach out and broaded her positions to take in her new state wide constituency. So yeah, I think she's going to work out great, for herself and for us. And besides, I think you can bank on her winning, after all she's got a big gun from what I understand (Chuck Schumer).

Stop complaining and whining and get to work.

by: ARDem @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 12:57:24 PM CDT

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Good for them

It reflects that they don't think she's progressive enough, but also that a lot of them simply don't like her.

by: Paleo @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 13:22:24 PM CDT

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Why the hell is Eric Massa's name on there?

By ideology, he's about as conservative as she was before her appointment.

by: Tyler Oakley @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 13:30:38 PM CDT

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I'd imagine

He just didn't like the nomination process and doean't want the party to get involved in the primary. In his case it's probably that and not ideology.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 13:39:28 PM CDT

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I think that's the case in all these situations

in the end I'd be surprised if there's a real competitive primary.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

by: nrafter530 @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 13:49:03 PM CDT

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There better not be

because that's a ton of money that goes down the drain if there is one.

by: IHateBush @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 15:09:46 PM CDT

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Think of it as a bailout of the political consultancy industry.

They really need one. Right.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 15:17:10 PM CDT

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I'd rather those consultants

work to get Dems elected where Repubs hold seats now than to oust Gillibrand, who while not perfect, is plenty good enough.

by: IHateBush @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 15:30:23 PM CDT

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I'll bet she doesn't even get a top-tier challenger in the primary

Gillibrand already has rock solid support upstate and she's moved a good deal left since becoming Senator which should eat away at any NYC area primary challenger. By early next year, barring some major mistake on her part, my guess is her poll numbers are so good she'll get a pass.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 15:56:04 PM CDT

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Why not?

It is a good idea that the people have some say in who their "elected" officials are, after all. Nobody outside of NY-20 elected Gillibrand.

by: David Kowalski @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 12:37:53 PM CDT

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Gillibrand will get a primary

it just won't be very competitive. She'll roll over whoever opposes her.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

by: nrafter530 @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 14:21:07 PM CDT

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Exactly

The NYC reps (mostly backbenchers) are talking a good game but my money says none of them will have the guts to run. In the end it'll be all talk and no action on their part.

by: ChadInFL @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 14:35:47 PM CDT

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The Primary Dilemma

The dilemma facing NY House reps is that they'd have to give up their seats just to run in a primary (so that their own seats would be available for a potential primary, which would take place on the same day). Risking one's seat in a multi-way primary is a pretty hefty bet, especially if one is already well established in the House and still happy with the job.

That may be why so many of them were angling for the appointment: it was the best way to go after the Senate seat without having to put their House seats on the line.

by: dsimon @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 23:09:38 PM CDT

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I think that's exactly the reason you don't see a lot of Dem reps making the plunge into Senate races for 2010, despite the good number of open seats. So far only Hodes and Meek have jumped in, probably because both consider themselves frontrunners for the nomination.

by: ChadInFL @ Thu Mar 19, 2009 at 10:06:51 AM CDT

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She is in by no means "conservative"

These people might not have liked the process but this talk smacks of jealousy and personal animosity rather than having anything to do with ideology. I remain deeply skeptical that anybody actually will pull the trigger but this kind of behavior almost makes me hope one of them runs and gets absolutely smashed.

by: conspiracy @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 16:48:29 PM CDT

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McCarthy will

and Israel may get ambitious. She'll wipe the floor with both of them, especially with the NYC-vote split. Schumer and the establishment have already given her the "big guns" and she's started lining up support from liberal advocasy groups already. She was tied with McCarthy at first, now I saw a recent poll with her already out ahead by 5 points.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 17:02:12 PM CDT

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What issues did she split on?

Only issue I can think of she disagreed with the NYC part of the party on was guns, and she's already done a complete reversal on that issue to triangulate any primary foe.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 17:07:43 PM CDT

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Well there's immigration

but quite honestly the NYC Democratic Party isn't wholly on her left on that issue either. In Parts of Queens, Brooklyn and Staten Island, they're downright rightwing on that issue...and on Long Island, forget it.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

by: nrafter530 @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 19:07:06 PM CDT

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McCarthy won't

If anyone, I'd think Scott Stringer might only because he's probably the most ambitious person I've ever seen.

But Tasini will almost certainly run for the seat too and split any anti-Gillibrand vote there is.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

by: nrafter530 @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 17:14:31 PM CDT

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Margins Of Error

She was tied with McCarthy at first, now I saw a recent poll with her already out ahead by 5 points.

Let's remember that polling has margins of error. A five point shift might be meaningful, but there's also some significant chance that it may be due to random sampling. Even the same poll run on the same day with two demographically identical makeups will often have results that differ by a few percentage points.

I think one has to wait for more data to conclude anything with real confidence--though it's still better to be on the upside of a five point difference than the downside.

by: dsimon @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 09:30:01 AM CDT

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Margins of error are annoying for close races.

Such as WA-Gov last year, which we all knew was going to be within the low single digits, but polls can't get much more accurate than that.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 12:53:45 PM CDT

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Question: What do each of those signess have in common?

Answer: They wanted the appointment instead.

by: Taget @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 10:32:15 AM CDT

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LOL

And looking at that list, I am not really all that surprised.

Except Eric Massa. The rest of them sound like names I've heard of for a good while now.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 14:28:14 PM CDT

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Yep

That's exactly why Rangel's name isn't on it.

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 15:04:07 PM CDT

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LOL

By the way, how did his scandal turn out?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 15:29:32 PM CDT

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NY-Sen: Ten NY House Dems Warn State Party Chair Off Gillibrand | 35 comments