Why is Utah a "race to watch"?

Ya, there's a chance Bennett could lose a primary, but even if he does we still have no chance at a pickup.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 16:47:08 PM CDT

Well

I think the primary is the "race to watch".

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by: James L. @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 16:49:57 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Its supposed to be Colorado

Wrong Bennett.  

John McCain: Healthcare for kids?  Not for a Bush-McCain America.

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by: bosdcla14 @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 21:06:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

No, Colorado is already at Lean Dem

Although if the GOP doesn't come up with a challenger to Michael Bennet, it won't stay there for long. (Bennet may face a potential primary from ex-state house speaker Andrew Romanoff, but either one would be favored, though not safe, against generic R.)

Bob Bennett in Utah is facing a primary from Dave Leavitt, a DA in a small county and the brother of the former governor. As every other front-pager has pointed out, it's a race to watch only because the primary will be interesting. We aren't expecting a Dem pickup here no matter who wins the primary, unless Ken Jennings enters the race and uses his gigantic throbbing brain to use telekinetic powers to cause the heads of his opponents to explode during the debate.

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by: Crisitunity @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 21:20:04 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

you're assuming utah

wouldn't vote for a headless republican.  i bet they would

being normal is for the mediocre.

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by: doug_tuttle @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 21:32:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Haha n/t

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog

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by: fitchfan28 @ Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 00:36:53 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Forget about Utah...

that's a fantasy. The one to watch, Napolitano or not, is McCain. That's the race to watch. He is not popular with anyone here. He's tolerated by the middle, and despised by those on either wing.  

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by: guayzimi @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 17:03:09 PM CDT

As James said

It's an RTW because of the primary.

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by: DavidNYC @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 18:32:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Republican Transportation Secretary LaHood

Well he's one republican cabinet pick who seems to be working out just fine.  

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

Secretary of Transportation Ray Lahood hit back hard on Monday to charges from White House critics that President Barack Obama's economic policies -- focused on leveraging government spending to stimulate demand -- had exacerbated the recession and constituted a form of socialism.

In an interview with the Huffington Post, LaHood, one of the few Republican members of the Obama administration, scoffed at the recent talking points emanating from the congressional leaders of his own party. His voice rising at times with emotion, the transportation czar tackled first the notion that the president was a socialist in disguise.

"I don't agree with it," LaHood said. "If you go out and interview these people working on this road in Maryland... these people are thrilled. They are thrilled that they are working in March on a good paying job building roads, which is what they were trained to do. That's going to be happening all over America. So the idea that this is socialism -- it is not socialism, it is economic development. It is going to provide an economic engine around communities all over American for jobs; good paying jobs; and help people pay their bills. I don't call that socialism.... We are the model for the world when it comes to infrastructure. We are the model for the interstate system. I don't call that socialism. Our $40 billion [for the Department of Transportation]: not socialism. It is good paying jobs that is going to drive the economies in a lot of states and a lot of communities."

LaHood's comments come amidst a growing chorus of GOP critics claiming that Obama is engineering a government takeover of the nation's main economic organs. The theme has found its way into mainstream political dialogue as well. In an interview last week with the New York Times, Obama was asked bluntly whether he is a socialist. The president initially brushed the question off, then called the reporters back after the interview ended to supplement his response. "It was hard for me to believe that you were entirely serious about that socialist question," Obama told the Times' scribes. "I did think it might be useful to point out that it wasn't under me that we started buying a bunch of shares of banks."

Perhaps more importantly, public opinion polls suggest that a large proportion of Americans are open both to additional stimulus spending as well as government intervention to revamp insolvent banks. Faced with these numbers, Republican strategists have deployed a separate strategy: portraying the president, with each passing day, as more and more responsible for the current crisis.

Asked about this line of attack, replete with phrases like the "Obama recession," Secretary LaHood offered a similarly ardent rebuke. If blame is to be cast, he declared, it can only, at this point, lie with the previous White House.

This is not an Obama recession," he said. "He inherited all of this. He inherited a $1 trillion dollar debt. He inherited the recession. He inherited the lousy stock market. All of this was inherited. The guy has been in office a little over a month and what he has tried to do is listen to every economist he could listen to. And he put in place some opportunities to get people to work quickly through the transportation bill portion of it, to help the banks, and to help the real estate industry. And it is going to take time."

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 17:10:08 PM CDT

Utah & Chafetz

Can someone explain to me why a guy like Chafetz is being talked up for a run against Bennett?  I mean first the guy beats Cannon and I know conservative crazy talk is popular in Utah, but why are people so high on Chafetz in particular?  Has the guy ever created a job or convinced a factory to move to his district/area where he lived?  What is so great about the guy? Does he shit rainbows or something?

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

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by: ModerateIADem @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 17:25:06 PM CDT

Because

He has the republican equivalent of "Obama Magic."

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 18:07:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Big mouth

Chafetz says all the craziest of the Rush Limbaigh type lines.  Then he actually acts like that in Congress.  Thus no earmarks.  He's proud of it and some of his constituents seem to like the "sincerity" and "earnestness."  

He hasn't realized that life is more than a sound bite and his constituents don't care (yet).

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by: David Kowalski @ Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 04:55:22 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Why isn't Aaron Schock acting like this?

On the other hand, it seems like we have an ongoing case study of a modern conservative Republican in office.  Please continue.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 10:54:16 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not sure Luksik will do Specter much good

I'm reminded of the primary in MD-01.  People thought Gilchrist might be spared by virtue of having two credible right-flank challengers in the form of State Sens. Andy Harris and E.J. Pipkin.  In the end, Gilchrist was just too deeply unpopular among the GOP base to forge any sort of winning coalition, even to take a narrow plurality.  

Given the drastically reduced number of Republicans in PA, and the fact that its a closed primary state... and just in the face of those staggering, lopsided disapproval numbers from his own base... I don't see Specter making it through this thing.

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by: JFM110 @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 17:42:45 PM CDT

RE: Peg Luksik

If you look at her last run and compare it to the Specter/Toomey map, you'll see that she pulled in her most votes in Toomey's western territory.

Yes, Toomey could pull in more votes without Bush or Man-on-Dog giving their endorsements, and there was the loss of the suburban Republicans.  The former would increase the Toomeyite vote, and both would decrease Specter's.

However, in the western part of the state, where Toomey won so many of the counties in the primary, Luksik would be pulling votes away from Toomey, not Specter.

I mentioned elsewhere that in such places, conservative activists were not swayed by prominent Republicans endorsing Specter.  They were totally pissed off.

Luksik would help Specter by siphoning off those votes.

There is a good chance that IHateBush is correct in that Toomey does not care about social issues, and that economics is what he is concerned with.  

Maybe losing the fundy/hyper-moralizer vote to Luksik would be a good thing, even for Toomey.

Luksik's getting in the race cannot be anything but a plus.

The ultimate would be for her to cause Specter to squeak by, then run in the general, and siphon enough votes off to help our guy get in.

Her running in the primary is the first step towards that goal.

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by: etl @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 19:19:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Luksik can't

lose the primary and then turn around and run in the general as a third party candidate; Pennsylvania has a 'sore loser law.' So... and this part is more important... Specter couldn't lose the primary and then turn around and run as the candidate of the Connecticut and Pennsylvania for Lieberman and Specter Party. (Although if his polls go south, he could always pull out of the GOP and start running under the CaPfLaS banner ahead of time.)

Also, and this is very minor point, but Toomey is from the Allentown area (he used to represent PA-15 until he gave it up for his first run at Specter), not the west. (Hard to believe such a right-winger could hold down such a moderate, suburban district.) You're right that much of Toomey's support came from the west and central parts, where there are more rural downscale right-wing voters and fewer affluent suburban moderates, so I don't think there will be a regional rivalry thing happening here; Specter will probably win by a huge margin in the Allentown area in the primary. (Luksik is from Johnstown in the west, John Murtha's hometown. In fact, she was last seen managing the 2008 campaign of William Russell, the BMW Direct defrauder who ran against Murtha.)

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by: Crisitunity @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 21:13:18 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm sure that etl knows where Toomey is from

Here's an interesting thought: his margin out of the Lehigh Valley will be smaller this time than it was in 2004. He needs to do better around Scranton and on the New York border.  

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by: andgarden @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 22:08:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Y'know

Every time I hear something about Scranton, I keep expecting something about Michael Scott and Dunder Mifflin to pop up.

We're probably the only people who like to see Michael Scott on the campaign trail with Pat Toomey.

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by: trowaman @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 22:49:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

RE: Sore Loser rule

That point I did not know, even though I have been in this state most of my life.

Thanks for explaining that.

Too bad.

We need for someone to peel away the fundy vote in the primary, and someone to do the same in the general.

I must admit.  I voted for Ridge both times.

However, I did know that Toomey was from the Lehigh Valley.

Toomey, as IHateBush pointed out, won his first election by campaigning as the ONLY defender of a woman's right to choose in the race.

He was pro-choice when he was getting elected in that district.

That is how he was getting elected.

Toomey won those voters in the southwest by remaking himself into the fundy/hyper-moralizer candidate.

There were plenty of activists out there that simply got pissed off at Bush and Mr Man on Dog for their endorsing Specter.

It was all about morals for such.

If you are a Republican in Cambria County, it's because you have a real hangup about such issues.

Considering some of the conservatives that run on the Democratic ticket locally, there is no reason to go out of your way to switch like that.

Also, you'll note that Loretto went for McCain.  

That town has all sorts of religious shrine type stuff that really attracts some wacky types that end up congregating around it.

Some of the people at the college might be okay, but the hangers-on are completely Bellevue-bound balmy.

Believe me, such a crowd went for Toomey, and they'd go for Luksik.

They'd be competing for the same nut cases.

The pro-choice fiscal conservative remade himself into the choice of the christian police state crowd.

You stated that Specter would win Allentown by a huge margin in the primary.

I am a little puzzled.

You evidently did not know that Toomey had been pro-choice.  It explains how such a right winger could represent such a district.

Maybe some voters there stayed with him since they still thought of him still being the social moderate that got elected there.  I couldn't say.

Maybe they will abandon him as his pro-choice past fades away and his high profile nutcase image replaces it in the minds of voters there.  Maybe.

However, that obviously is not your reasoning.

I am curious why you say that the Lehigh Valley will go so heavily for Specter this time when it went for Toomey last time?  Given that you were not factoring his previous pro-choice position into the explanation of why he took the area the first time the two faced off, I am very puzzled.

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by: etl @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 22:48:54 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

That's interesting

I didn't know he'd been previously loudly pro-choice; thanks for bringing that up. So how did he deal with that issue in 2004? Did he just not talk about it and hope the right-wingers would just assume he was, if we was running a primary against Specter? Or did he actively flip-flop on the issue, a la a reverse Kucinich? Anyway, my sense, not based on anything other than intuition, is that the people of PA-15 may have had enough distance between now and Toomey's turn as their representative that they've forgotten any pro-choice sentiments he once had and only remember him as the nutjob who lost to Specter from the right and then appeared on Fox a lot. Anyway, it sounds like you have a good read on this race, so I hope you'll keep us abreast on the nuances.

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by: Crisitunity @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 23:00:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Central PA

I wonder how Specter, Toomey and Luksik would do in central PA. Isnt that area mostly conservative Protestant? Maybe Im wrong though.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 02:23:31 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

The "T"

(especially the southern parts near the Maryland line) is more Protestant than the rest of Pennsylvania, but it's still pretty Catholic, at least compared with the rest of the nation. The Association of Religion Data Archives has amazing maps available online, where you can see religiosity and denominations at the county level.

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by: Crisitunity @ Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 12:08:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

MD-1

Ive heard that a big reason Gilchrist lost was because him and Pipkin split the Eastern Shore vote while Harris was able to gobble up all those suburban Baltimore votes. Sure, Gilchrist's moderation ultimately cost him the election (he might not have even gotten a primary, period, had he not been a moderate), but if Pipkin were from the Baltimore burbs Gilchrist probably would have won the primary.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 02:18:40 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

So who knows...

Where all the major GOP primary contenders, in PA-Sen, will come from.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 02:19:38 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Would that sort of thing really play out in PA though?

It seems like Specter, Toomey, and Luksik all have pretty distinct geographic bases... unless we'd argue that Toomey's new constituency is less the Lehigh Valley than the 'T' and the Southwest, in which case I suppose we could see Luksik siphoning off some of his votes.

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by: JFM110 @ Thu Mar 12, 2009 at 09:56:07 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I think Specter's waiting for the dust to settle

before he makes his move.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Mar 12, 2009 at 10:32:54 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

SC-01 getting interesting ... Early

Carroll Campbell III's candidacy is big news. He had been mentioned for Governor, but that would be too much of a stretch.  This makes a lot more sense.  

Brown is already highly vulnerable.  His chances of retiring are soaring IMO.  Ketner is in the catbird seat.  The key will be Obama's popularity in 11/2010.  

The Campbell machine was a mega-force to be dealt with in it's hey-day.  If "Tunky" can rebuild even a shadow of it, that might be enough.  

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by: vicupstate @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 18:18:11 PM CDT

For pure comedy, Dan Burton is probably my favorite wing-nut

Among his gems:

1)  Advocating the death penalty for drug dealers, but being silent when his kid was repeatedly busted with a whole bunch of pot.

2)  Saying we should send planes to eradicate coca fields in Bolivia, from a naval ship off the Bolivian coast.  Bolivia is a land-locked nation.

3)  Being the main purveyor of the "Vince Foster was murdered" theory -- including staging a demostration in his back yard with a handgun and a pumpkin.

Seriously, though, all those guys mentioned as potential primary opponents are heavy hitters in the Indiana Republican Party.  Now, if they all end up running, Burton wins -- but against any one of them, he very well could lose.

One final really, really frightening thought -- he's not even the looniest wing-nut in his family.  His brother Woody, who serves in the Indiana General Assembly, is even crazier than he is!!

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 20:17:18 PM CDT

"His brother Woody, who serves in the Indiana General Assembly, is even crazier than he is!!"

Is that even possible? That's a pretty tall order to beat.

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by: bradley minoski @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 21:03:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

*Jaw drops in disbelief*

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

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by: californianintexas @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 21:10:18 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

That's not even going into his personal life

So he:
1. Fathered a son with a state employee while being merried
2. Was known as one of the biggest philanderers in the Indiana legislature
3. Married the doctor who treated his wife for breast cancer

What a wonderful man.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D...

In September 1998, Burton admitted to fathering a son, born in 1983, with a former state employee. After the admission, one report claimed, "During part of the 1970s and '80s, Dan Burton was known as the biggest skirt-chaser in the Indiana legislature ... Privately, some of his fellow Republicans expressed embarrassment. Lobbyists whispered about the stories of Burton's escapades. Statehouse reporters joked about him. Yet no one ever wrote about, or probably thought about writing anything. To the people who sent him first to the legislature and then to Congress, Burton was Mr. Conservative, the devout husband and father who espoused family values."

In August 2006, Burton remarried to Dr. Samia Tawil in Park City, Utah. She was the internist who cared for Burton's wife, Barbara, during her battle with cancer. Tawil and her first husband had divorced in 2005

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 21:26:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I guess he survives only because his district is more Republican than Bachmann's and he's an R?

And people are even blinder there than in MN-06?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 21:47:03 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ever since...

Alaska chose to re-elect someone under indictment and almost re-elected a convicted felon I'm not particularly surprised at the types of people who get elected anywhere anymore.

Your go-to source for great sarcasm

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by: DGM @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 22:55:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yes, at least enough of his constituents are that blind

But as evidenced by the number of major local names who are thinking of jumping into the race, an increasing number of conservatives here have had it with Dan Burton.  I think if it weren't for the Obama/Clinton primary here sucking all the oxygen (and more than a few moderate voters) out of his primary race against Dr. McGoff last May, he very well may have lost the primary.  He's been in a years-long running battle with the usually conservative Indianapolis Star, whose editorial board hates him.  He really is an embarassment among Indiana conservative Republicans, and to pull that off is a real accomplishment!

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 06:09:42 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

They actually spun that as a positive for him!

When the news broke of the illegitimate child, his supporters spun that as evidence of his pro-life convictions, and that he is so pro-family he supports ALL his children.  To his credit (I guess, in a Vito Fosella sort of way) he did financially support the kid.

I will say ONE (1) sort-of nice thing about Dan Burton.  I guess he grew up in a horrendously violent family (it sounds like his father was just a monster of a human being), and he's been actually quite supportive of some aspects of reforming the foster care system and combatting domestic violence.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 06:14:57 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Like they did with Palin's daughter

and her pregnancy.  Bunch of stupid hypocrites.  I apparently can't have ever sex with who I'll love because its wrong and immoral but they can have immoral sex all they want as long as the woman gets pregnant eventually and they decide to keep it so it can be herald as a pro-life miracle.  Bah, if only the "for every animal you dont eat I'll eat three" principle could be applicable.

If I were witty enough, I'd start a diary called, Why I Hate the Religious Right, and come up with lots of funny reasons but alas, I'm not funny enough.

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by: Andrew @ Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 13:07:15 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Luksik and Toomey

Are social issues really gonna trump economics in this time of crisis? I know it happens to be a GOP primary but I have my doubts.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 07:23:01 AM CDT

This is more like it

"Congressional Democrats have reached a milestone with the highest recorded approval ratings since the party took control of both chambers in the 2006 election, according to the latest Gallup polling.

Nearly four in ten, 39%, of Americans approve of Congress, a rating which has been on a steady incline-it's an eight point jump from last month, and a 20 point jump since January. It's also the most positive approval ratings for Congress since Feb. 2005, when Republicans were still in control."

http://www.gallup.com/poll/116...

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 10:07:57 AM CDT

Tauscher's terrible at spin, isn't she?

First there was her unconvincing passive-aggressive attack on OpenLeft, then there's this even less convincing defence of her actions to The Hill, and then there's her proud noting of the fact that "Many of us come from Wall Street."

Has she perhaps not noticed that Wall Street isn't the most popular avenue in the country any more?

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by: Englishlefty @ Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 16:09:09 PM CDT

I tend to disagree with Tauscher

on economic issues, but it's about time someone put Chris Bowers in his place. Weren't they supposed to primary her in 2008? What happened to that?


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 16:23:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Chris Bowers has his place

It's complaining from a position of relatively little power on the left. I think just about everybody (including he) accepts that. The issue wasn't Tauscher's complaint, it was her frankly ludicrous claim that fucking with cram-down was progressive.

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by: Englishlefty @ Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 18:08:00 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

But he's becoming a joke

Bowers isn't far from becoming the left's equivalent of RedState or Free Republic.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 21:05:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Thank goodness he's not Rush Limbaugh

I watched Gingrich deal with the uncomfortable question of Rush Limbaugh on Meet The Press, and I read on politics1.com that Limbaugh pasted Gingrich over that as well.

So exactly who's running the show again?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 22:06:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

He accepts that?

He thinks he, alone, can primary Eric Massa out of his seat. I don't think he accepts he is relatively little power on the left, otherwise he wouldn't be threatening people like Massa with a primary challenge over something so luducrious as voting against the Housing Relief Bill because it didn't help his district enough.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 21:58:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]