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SSP Daily Digest: 3/9

by: Crisitunity

Mon Mar 09, 2009 at 2:57 PM EDT


Here's your daily dose of bullet points...

• TX-10: Democrats have lined up a solid candidate in TX-10, where Larry Joe Doherty came within 10 points of Mike McCaul last year. Jack McDonald, CEO of Austin high-tech firm Perficient, has started an exploratory committee. This fast-growing, Dem-trending district may also be an open seat in 2010, as McCaul considers a bid for Texas AG.

• CA-48: It looks like GOP Rep. John Campbell is about to receive a stronger-than-expected Democratic challenge in 2010. Beth Krom, the former mayor of Irvine and a current city councilor, has made a formal announcement of her candidacy on her campaign website. A traditionally red district, Obama edged out a slight victory over McCain here in 2008, pulling 49% of the vote. (Hat-tip to Gus Ayer, friend of SSP) (J)

• NV-Sen: Here's one that slipped through the cracks last week: ex-Rep. Jon Porter, who'd be the GOP's best option against Harry Reid, is staying in Washington and becoming 'director of public policy' at a lobbying shop. Not that this closes him out from running, but it diminshes the likelihood.

• FL-Sen: Rep. Kendrick Meek has been racking up money ($90,000 at a recent Bill Clinton-headlined fundraiser) and endorsements (Florida's SEIU chapter and United Teachers of Dade) while primary opponent state senator Dan Gelber is preoccupied with the legislative session.

• DCCC: In a big behind-the-scenes move, DCCC executive director (and Pelosi ally) Brian Wolff has left the D-Trip to become senior VP for external affairs at the Edison Electric Institute, a utility-owned trade and lobbying group that has previously given significantly more money to Republicans. (UPDATE: The DCCC's new executive director will be Jon Vogel, who previously led the DCCC's independent expenditures arm.)

• WA-08: Here's an interesting take from American Prospect on what went wrong with Darcy Burner's rematch against Dave Reichert, written by Eli Sanders, the former politics reporter for the Stranger (Seattle's alt-weekly). I'm not sure I agree with the final analysis (they say it was mostly a matter of tone) but it's thought-provoking.
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 3/9
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SSP Daily Digest: 3/9 | 30 comments
Sam Seaborn for CA-48!!!!!

But for that to happen
Democrats have to run a guy who dies a week before the election and have the dead guy win a miracle election due to bad election day weather.
[ Parent ]
Who is
[ Parent ]
Rob Lowe in "The West Wing"
he left the show in the 4th Season and the way they wrote him out is that a dead Democratic candidate narrowly beats the incumbent Republican in this very district (then called the California-47) and Sam runs for the special election as a Democrat and leaves the White House.

We find out in the last season that he didn't win.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Ya, it was a fantastic story line
Basically Sam made a promise to the wife of the recent deceased Dem candidate in CA-47 that if her husband wins posthumaously he would run for the seat in a special election to fill the vacancy.  Basically a LA-02 (2008) series of events happens that allows for that impossible event to occur and Sam has to run for a race he never intended.
[ Parent ]
Krolicki indicted
and Porter's staying in DC.  I'm still waiting to hear who exactly is able to beat Harry Reid, as he is supposedly our most vulnerable senator in 2010.
Heller?
More likely to primary the governor.
[ Parent ]
he might as well
I doubt Gibbons even runs again.  Heller would have a better shot at an open governor race than against Reid.
[ Parent ]
Re NV: Maybe they should run a want ad in CraigsList.
(After all, that's how Stormy was discovered in LA)
[ Parent ]
Want ad
Richard Nixon's start as a candidate came from mhis answering a wantad fir a WWII veteran to run for Congress.  Tes, that is how he was discovered.
[ Parent ]
can meek switch to gov
if crist runs?  or does the cash only work for fed office?

being normal is for the mediocre.
sorry, not specific enough
what i meant was, can he switch THE MONEY to a gov run?  or is it only for fed office?

being normal is for the mediocre.
[ Parent ]
That's a good question, but...
If Crist runs, I'm sure we'd see Alex Sink run for FL-Gov, and I'm not sure that Meek would want to jump into that primary -- Sink would beat him like a drum.
[ Parent ]
if sink wants to run
i realize the senate if different than the governorship, but she didn't want to run for senate so she might not want to run for governor either.  hopefully though, it's just that she didn't want to be a senator, but would be fine with gov

being normal is for the mediocre.
[ Parent ]
I really don't think that's the case
Her background is better suited for executive than the U.S. Senate.  I've always had the feeling Governor was in her sights.  And obviously she doesn't want to run against Crist, so unless he ran for Senate she'll have to wait till 2014.
[ Parent ]
From what I've read
Her ambition is FL-Gov, not FL-Sen.
[ Parent ]
CA-48 Thanks for the Hat Tip
Although I've been an intermittent friend of Swing State Project. I seem to recall some nasty comments of mine when SSP declared Debbie Cook "below the Mendoza line" when the asshats in DC were clueless about California.

In the CA-46 race, unfortunately, Debbie Cook started way too late, and Dana Rohrabacher's friends nudged him awake, so the conventional wisdom was fulfilled, but not without a hell of a fight.

From here on the ground in Orange County, Beth Krom has a much better shot than Debbie Cook ever had, although the district is even tougher. Rohrabacher established himself as an outsider, and showed up at Indian Princess breakfasts and Eagle Scout Ceremonies, and sponsored snow days in Long Beach. Campbell is an elitist with monogrammed French cuffs who never shows up at local events.

Obama carried CA-48 by 2500 votes but lost CA-46.

And in 2010, the Obama organizers won't go to Nevada.


Landmark survey on religion done
Non-religious population soaring.  The % of Americans claiming no religion has jumped from 8% in 1990 to 15% today.  The breakdown by state is fascinating.

States with highest % of non-religious residents:
1. VT - 34%
2. NH - 29%
3. WY - 28% (WTF?!)
4. WA - 25%
5. ME - 25%
6. OR - 24%
7. NV - 24%
8. ID - 23%
9. DE - 23%
10. MA - 22%

States with lowest % of non-religious residents:
50. MS - 5%
49. ND - 7%
48. LA - 8%
47. AR - 8%
46. TN - 9%
45. GA - 9%
44. NC - 10%
43. SC - 10%
42. KS - 11%
41. OK - 11%

7 of those 10 are ex-Confederate states.  Why am I not surprised?

One surprise is Utah with 14% non-religious.  That's much higher than I expected.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/r...

More evidence
That it might be easier to crack Wyoming and Idaho before Tennessee and Louisiana come back.
[ Parent ]
Methinks after Prop 8, a lot of ex-Mormons jumped ship.
[ Parent ]
Count me as one of them
As Im an agnostic. Im not surprised about Wyoming being 28% "non-religious" (not sure if that means atheists/agnostics or them and people who dont practice their religious beliefs). The mountain west actually has more non-believers than people think.
[ Parent ]
Pete Stark won't be quite so lonely in Congresses to come
Hopefully this forebodes the reversal of the long-standing assumption that an American politician has to be explicitly religious if he's to have a chance at holding public office. It's a good trend.

I'm actually quite surprised that AZ, CA and NM are posting healthy numbers considering the overwhelming religiosity of the Hispanic immigrants there.

[ Parent ]
Whites in those states, especially CA, are very non-religious.
Exit polls showed that non-Hispanic whites actually narrowly voted against Prop H8.

And count me as one of those non-religious, a flat-out atheist.

Check out the 2010 California races and help us take back Red California!

[ Parent ]
I'm in your boat
And darn glad the country is moving away from ancient superstition and dogma.  
[ Parent ]
Personally
Im open to certain pagan beliefs, but definitely not to an all powerful monotheistic deity. And all powerful deities, period. Its that whole, 'God wouldnt let really terrible things happen to good people' thing. I cant get past it. Ok this is very off topic, sorry, LOL. But with regards to politics...i cant ever see a major politician uttering those words. Maybe his voters would care less (depending where he represents) but the establishment wouldnt want to touch him probably. And thats just sad.
[ Parent ]
I think religiosity among immigrants is overrated
Yes, the vast majority identify as Catholic.  But facts are they have VERY low rates of actually going to church and practicing their religion.  I've seen this firsthand in Florida.  I think a large % of them identify with their religion as more of a heritage thing than anything else.  Especially so among the younger crowd.
[ Parent ]
Latinos
Where I live, its the Latino immigrants that seem to be less religious than the Latinos born in the U.S. Not to say they dont hold certain culturally conservative beliefs (afterall, many secular whites, blacks and asians do)...but they just dont strike me as being religious. Especially the males. Id venture to guess theyre spending Sundays drinking beer with their buddies rather than attending church. And certainly nothin wrong with that!

I know that in Europe many Catholics seem to identify their religion more like an ethnicity/heritage rather than an actual religious belief.  

[ Parent ]
Atheists/agnostics
Most liberal (and many moderate) districts would have no problem electing an atheist/agnostic to Congress (whether in the general or the Dem primary). So I think the main reason you dont see more Congressmembers 'coming out' as atheists/agnostics, or open ones running for an open seat, is because they fear theyd be shunned by the political establishment (party leadership, interest groups, etc). And you cant put a price on power and influence in Washington. Even a moderate, McCain/Bush 04 district like Gifford's would elect one. If they were willing to elect an openly gay man theyd be willing to elect an atheist or agnostic. I have no doubt about that. So its not the voters Im worried about. And I remember reading, a month or so ago, from a big atheist/agnostic group, who sent out a recent survey to congressmembers, that there were over 20 'closet' atheists/agnostics in Congress. The group refused to reveal their names but said the congressmembers privately told them they were atheist/agnostic. I forget the name of the group, though (grr!)
[ Parent ]
Most obvious congressman in my view
Is Bill Foster (IL-14).  He formally states "no religion specified."  And I've never heard of a physicist who believed in a higher power.  I believe there was a poll done on people who hold science related PhD recently and something like 70% were atheist of agnostic.  Obviously he won't be open about it anytime soon given his district.
[ Parent ]
Even the Jews?
but it's so freakin convienent when they can't see you because theyre observin Rosh Hosannah  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 3/9 | 30 comments

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