Corzine might just survive this. . .

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by: andgarden @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 12:35:42 PM CST

OMGZ Corzine is doomed!

Just like Menendez was doomed in 2006 was and all other statewide races where Dems were down early before cruising to easy victories.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 12:41:49 PM CST

Although

I dont remember too many of those polls being this bleak.  Although I wasnt reading polls this early into the 2006 cycle.  And everything showed Laughtenberg ahead if IIRC.

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by: Andrew @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 12:53:05 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Yes there were

http://www.uselectionatlas.org...

4/11/06 Rasmussen poll had Kean leading Menendez by 7.  On 9/22/06 Kean was ahead of Menendez by 5 according to Rasmussen.  As late as September of 2006 Kean was still ahead in many polls.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 13:24:37 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Wups

and I forgot the race was THIS november, not next years.  I hadnt seen a NJ poll showing the Dem incumb doing that poorly 1.5 years out, not just half a year out.

Yeah, Corzine is probably solid then.

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by: Andrew @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 14:52:53 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Different

I'm from New Jersey.  This is different.  Corzine is in trouble.  This is not to say he can't, or won't, win.  He can.  But this is not like the other races you refer to.  And if Corzine continues to piss off state workers with his demand for furlough days, he'll be in even more trouble.

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by: Paleo @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 13:05:29 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Yup, I agree with that

This smells way different -- Corzine's numbers were never that stellar, but they seem to be only getting worse as time goes by. Back when I used to listen to WNYC every morning, it seemed like every other day had a story about some new management problem that Corzine was running into; his administration has really had a bumpy ride... the folks who seem inclined to believe that this one will be an easy win are being a more than a bit hasty here.

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by: James L. @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 13:27:43 PM CST

[ Parent ]

He should have stayed in the senate

He was a better senator than governor.  And Codey, even with the budget difficulties, would have a better chance of winning because he's more likeable and comes across as a regular "Jersey guy."

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by: Paleo @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 13:34:58 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Indeed

Corzine could have been a real impressive Senator during this whole financial crisis period with his background.

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by: IHateBush @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 19:56:58 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I don't think anybody thinks it will be easy win

But we have seen this movie before in Jersey and all those Dem winners had nothing like the resources Corzine can call on. Having said that if this was any other state I might be inclined to write him off.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 14:28:45 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Well

Let me put it this way: Whenever we do one of these NJ-Gov threads, invariably someone in the comments pushes the belief that Democrats cannot lose statewide in New Jersey. I tend to think that this race is plenty lose-able for Corzine.

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by: James L. @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 23:37:19 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Indeed

I haven't seen much evidence of Corzine actually organizing a campaign yet, so I'm wondering if perhaps he's backing out. I think probably the smart thing to do at this point would be to try and define Christie.  

Like Boomberg, I think his resources are effectively unlimited.  

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by: andgarden @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 23:59:59 PM CST

[ Parent ]

If Corzine pulls this out it may be true!

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Mar 05, 2009 at 05:57:01 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Plus and minus

Corzine may have a lot of money but he's a lousy politician.  He frequently sells disaster at the home owner and town level making a huge splash and finds a quiet way to avoid much of the damage.  That's OK in a way but politically he just has created a pile of ill feeling.  

One example with that is the homeowner tax rebate from the state.  He want on a big campaign a year or two ago saying he was going to eliminate the program which is basically targeted to retirees and middle income people.  Well, he wound up actually increasing the pay out but the local pols in the legislature got the credit and he got the blame.  Instead of "Corzine boosting tax relief" the story was "Corzine trying to eliminate tax relief."  (NJ, btw, has the highest property taxes in the nation.)

He was talking about selling state hughways and interstates.  He was talking about sharp cuts even when things were not so gloomy.  The last I heard he was trying to force towns under 5,000 people out of existence by forcing mergers through cut offs of state aid (most of these towns already share services with their neighboring towns).

The one saving grace is Chris Christie.  If any politician in New Jersey history (including Harrison Williams) seems perfect for a negative campaign, it's Christie.  He was slated to be fired as US Attorney but saved his job and sold his soul going on a rampage against Democratic officials, particularly minorities and using sleazy methods as far as I can tell.  I wouldn't vote for this man for anything or appoint him to anything.  Even his one elected office was a disaster.  He couldn't get along wi5th the other Republicans on the Morris County Board of Chosen Freeholders.  Plus he's fat and smug and runs self righteous.

Corzine has spent fortunes on TV advertising.  The state's papers don't like him and just love Christie.  Given the precarious state of newspapers, a wide open spending spree in the papers would be an incredibly shrewd move for Corzine.  Money buys indluence with the MSM.

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by: David Kowalski @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 14:18:49 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Corzine

He actually makes sense on such things as consolidation and the property tax rebate, but then he's for some off the wall things like privatizing the Turnpike and, until the last day or so, against any tax increase on the wealthy.  He does come across as Mr. Doom and Gloom, even in the best of times.  As I said, he should have stayed in the senate and let Dick Codey be governor.

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by: Paleo @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 14:30:00 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Codey didn't want to be Governor

he decided not to run for a full term, which is the main reason why Corzine ran.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 17:12:08 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Huh?

I thought it was Corzine's entry into the race that pushed Codey out.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 19:27:46 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Codey didn't want to run

because of his wife's issues...Corzine jumped in expecting Codey would bow out and he did.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 22:09:45 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Not what I remember

Codey did not want to run for US Senator.  He wanted to stay at home in Jersey.  I never got the impression that he did not want to be Governor.  If he ran, he would have won easily but the big money from Corzine stopped that.

The radio flap where he defended his wife against a shock jock never, ever made it into my consciousness or any discussions I ever heard.  I just found out about it 4 years after the fact from Wikipedia and I not only live in Jersey I live in Codey's state senate district.

The Republicans here may not get elected but the radio is uniformally vicious and anti-Democratic.  McGreevey got a lot worse as did Florio and Corzine.  These shock jocks are taken with a ton (not a grain) of salt.  The newspapers, particularly the Star Ledger, just love Codey.  I don't think the damage was anywhere near what you think it was but i could be wrong.

Codey's reaction is the exact opposite of Mike Dukakis'.  That was a campaign killer.  I don't think this would have been.

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by: David Kowalski @ Thu Mar 05, 2009 at 04:18:42 AM CST

[ Parent ]

It wasn't because it would hurt his campaign

he didn't want to put his wife through it. It was widely expected that Codey would not run for that reason and that's why Corzine jumped in.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Thu Mar 05, 2009 at 12:37:36 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I agree

This is different.

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by: DavidNYC @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 19:56:47 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Lonegan's a total nutjob

He's as far right as you can get.  I wouldn't want to take the chance that he could get elected.  

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by: Paleo @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 13:02:32 PM CST

I did GOTV work for Doug Forrester in 2005...

...and look how that turned out.

Don't believe the hype. New Jersey has a way of tempting Republicans with the possibility of success during the spring/summer, but then dashing those hopes later.

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by: InRepublican @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 14:27:19 PM CST

There you have it

Even republicans admit New Jersey is fools gold.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 19:29:31 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I remember Lautenberg polling in the MoE of Dick Zimmer all 2008

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 14:52:51 PM CST

All of 2008?

Come on.

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by: James L. @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 15:46:18 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Pollster.com

Checked pollster.com for NJ Senate polls in 2008 and 2006.

Using their trend line instead of any single poll, the absolute worst for Lautenberg was about a +9 lead.  the worst for Menendez was about a 4 deficit.  Right now, Corzine is at a 8 deficit.  I couldn't find data for older races.

Seems like this one may be different.  

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by: sicembears @ Thu Mar 05, 2009 at 10:46:06 AM CST

[ Parent ]