Its bad enough being a Republican in New York...

But its even worse being an unpopular Republican in New York. I guess theres always the chance some of his popularity can come back...it did for Mario Cuomo it seems. But I doubt it will for him. Running Pataki is the yankee version of VA Republicans running Jim Gilmore.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 00:04:37 AM CST

Whats next?

Michael Steele and the MA GOP to try to recruit Mitt Romney, an unpopular Republican in his ultra blue state, to run against Patrick? But all joking aside, i havent heard Steele being involved in the talks to get Pataki into the Sen. race. Just Cornyn. And really, unless Gillibrand turns out to be the female version of Roland Burris then Pataki doesnt stand a chance in hell of winning. King at least has a very outside shot. I mean seriously...Pataki left as a very, very unpopular Governor. That wont be forgotten in just 4 years.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 00:08:58 AM CST

[ Parent ]

OK, to be fair..

I just got through reading the Oct, Nov and Dec. 06 approval ratings for Pataki and its not as bad as I thought it was. But its still 42% and two 46 percents approval. With disapproval at like 49% and two 50 percents. Not extremely unpopular but still unpopular. And, as said, its bad enough being a NY Republican...but much worse being an unpopular NY Republican. He just cant win unless he rehabilitates his image or the public has a case of amnesia.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 00:15:31 AM CST

At SUSA

I should point out. ok thats 4 posts, sorry.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 00:15:58 AM CST

And here you are

Sitting by yourself, talking to yourself.  That's, that's chaos theory!

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by: James L. @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 00:56:08 AM CST

[ Parent ]

You do plan to have dinosaurs on this dinosaur tour?

Hello?

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by: trowaman @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 00:59:25 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Plan? What Plan?

What's the plan, Indy?

Plan?  What plan?  I'm making it up as I go along.

Seriously, I'd rather have an incumbent republican House member whether King, McHugh or Lee than a former Governor.  Heck, let them risk a state Senate seat on the thing.

The Republican plan seems to be to drag out as many names as possible in the hope that one can be convinced to run.  What's next?  The ghost of Nelson Rockefeller or Thomas E. Dewey?

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by: David Kowalski @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 02:04:05 AM CST

Well, Paterson is in worse shape now

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by: andgarden @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 09:13:22 AM CST

Ok

Here are how the Senate races are going to go.

The GOP target CO and NV, neither one is below 8%.

The Dems target NH, MO, OH, FL, KY, NC, PA, TX and possibly LA, if all the pundits are correct anyway.  I predict we'll pick up 4-6 of those.  If we get Cooper in NC, I think 5 is where we'll most likely end up with FL being a total toss-up until election night.  I threw in TX as one to challenge as we could get a competitive race there.  With an incumbent, we got within 10% last time, hopefully any open seat will get us within single digits.

This being at the current situation.  If the situation was even a little  against us, we'd probably still pick-up some seats and not lose anyway.

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by: Andrew @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 09:59:19 AM CST

+IL

They'll make a major play here, but unless Burris manages to snake his way into the general, then it won't turn out any better than CO and NV.

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by: Nico @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 12:29:46 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Assuming they don't get the seat

before 2010.

Quinn is saying if Burris resigns, he wants a special election right away.

But that still leaves the seat up for grabs in 2010 if a Republican wins.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 12:31:38 PM CST

[ Parent ]

A special would be great

I know it would occur just as the DCCC is trying to retire its debts, but I foresee almost no circumstance in which we'd lose a special in a blueing state like Illinois.  We have Giannoulis, Schakowsky, and others, and they'd be stuck with Kirk, who, in a special, might very well make conservative Republicans stay home.

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by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 17:38:22 PM CST

[ Parent ]

i'd still assume that democrat will win the IL seat in the

special election that quinn has now said he wants.  madigan is stronger than kirk and could coalesce the party quickly.

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by: st paul sage @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 12:54:00 PM CST

Too bad it won't happen

Burris will have to be dragged out of the Senate kicking and screaming.  No chance he resigns.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 12:57:55 PM CST

[ Parent ]

He might if it looks like he did something criminal

Then bargaining enters the equation.

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 13:03:15 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I'd say there's a decent chance

that he's expelled, though.

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by: andgarden @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 13:12:37 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Isn't the bar quite high for being expelled?

I was under the impression someone had to be convicted of criminal charges in order to be expelled?  

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 13:20:29 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I think you just need 2/3 of the Senate

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by: Kanamit @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 13:23:24 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Maybe so

But I'm pretty sure they need a good reason.  So far Burris hasn't been charged with a crime, much less convicted.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 13:25:17 PM CST

[ Parent ]

AFAIK they just need a good enough reason

to convince 2/3 of the Senate. I'm pretty sure that the SCOTUS has interpreted Congress's power to expel its own members pretty broadly.

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by: Kanamit @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 14:00:27 PM CST

[ Parent ]

He'll do as well running for the Senate as he did running for President.

And I'm not kidding.  He DID actually try to run for President two years ago.

He seems an odd choice to throw against Gillibrand.  Pataki's strategy (which has been used successfully by other Democrats) has always been to use upstate and Long Island as a base and play the suburbs of New York City against the city.  For example when he screwed New York City by getting rid of the commuter tax.  That's what you use against Nydia Valesquez NOT against Kirsten Gillibrand.  Does Pataki have ANYTHING else in his playbook?

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by: Taget @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 15:25:37 PM CST

He'll try wooing city conservatives

Long Islanders and hope for reduced Democratic turnout due to a bloody primary or angry liberals who thought there should've been a primary.

We are missing one important fact in all this...Chuck Schumer will also be on the ballot and probably be somewhat unopposed.

If Andrew Cuomo ends up with the gubernatorial nod, Gillibrand rides in on coattails.

Also, maybe Pataki is counting on McCarthy running and beating Gillibrand...that would piss off a whole lot of Upstate voters and moderate Dems who could be inclined to vote Pataki.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 16:27:38 PM CST

[ Parent ]