Blunt

Im guessing Blunt didnt want his legacy to be 'failed House leader'...so hes trying to become a Senator. I refuse to believe hed run for the Senate if his House legacy looked rosy. Hes one of the most powerful Republicans there, afterall. But I wonder if most voters in MO even have an opinion on Blunt. But should he win the primary the ad campaigns against him wont be pretty. I wonder if 'Baby' Blunt will run for his House seat. Kind of rare for an ex-Gov. to run for a non-At Large House district but hes just so young and might care about repairing his own legacy.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Wed Feb 18, 2009 at 19:55:22 PM CST

Most powerful Republican in the House

is kind of like being the tallest resident of Munchkinland. At least in the Senate you can filibuster things.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Wed Feb 18, 2009 at 19:58:01 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Baby Blunt Redemption?

Might not be a bad idea for Blunt to run for election to the House and somehow redeem himself in a non-statewide fashion in a relatively safe Republican seat.

There is precedent for former statewide politicians running for House seats, such as former Minnesota Republican Sen. Rod Grams attempted comeback to Congress...by running in a solid blue Democratic seat however.

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Wed Feb 18, 2009 at 22:12:27 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Interesting Political Trivia Question

This would make an interesting political trivia question:  what ex-governors or ex-senators have subsequently run for lower level state offices or non-statewide House seats?  Jerry Brown is the first that comes to mind.

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by: sicembears @ Wed Feb 18, 2009 at 22:35:25 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Folsom, Jr.

Ex-AL Gov. Jim Folsom, Jr. was Gov. of AL from April 93 to 95 (lost to Fob James). Now serves as Lt. Gov.

Ex-MD Gov. William Schaefer was Gov. from 87-95 and later Comptroller, until 2007, for 8 years.

Hmm, thats all i can think of right now.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Wed Feb 18, 2009 at 23:52:04 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Two I can think of

are Joseph Brennan, who was elected to Maine's 1st district after serving as Governor in the 1980s, and if you go back to the 1940s, Matthew Neely, who served as both a Senator and Governor of West Virginia.

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by: fatcathobbes @ Wed Feb 18, 2009 at 23:55:43 PM CST

[ Parent ]

also Douglas Wilder

who was elected mayor of Richmond after serving as Governor of Virginia

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by: fatcathobbes @ Wed Feb 18, 2009 at 23:57:32 PM CST

[ Parent ]

KY-Gov

Former Gov. Julian Carroll who served in the 70s is now a state senator.

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by: Nico @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 00:22:19 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Not statewide, but...

Former Democratic Rep. Roy Dyson from MD-01 is now a state senator.  I imagine that's a somewhat more common scenario, however.

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by: JFM110 @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 00:58:45 AM CST

[ Parent ]

A few more

Claude Pepper was both a US Senator from Florida and then a longtiome US House member.

It's not quite where you are coming from, but John Quincy Adams was a one term US President who then served 17 years in the House after he was President.  Andre Johnson was elected to the Senate after having been elected VP with Lincoln and assuming the Presidency.

I think earl Long was LA Governor and then was elected to the US House in a comeback.  It was in the movie "Blaze."

William Schaefer was Gov of Maryland and then had one of the statewide constitutional offices like Treasurer for a long time.

Mike Castle was Governor of Delaware and is now a US House member.  Not really a demotion in Delaware's case.

William Janklow used to alternate between South Dakota Governor and the US House (8 years in each over 16 years) depending on term limits.  He literally had to kill someone in a DUI to end the charade.

It is not elected but Roy Roemer went from Governor of Colorado to head of the Los Angeles schools.  Roemer probably got more money in L.A.

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by: David Kowalski @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 02:12:10 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I know he wasn't a Senator or Governor

But President John Quincy Adams served as President for one term, then ran for the House.

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by: bradley minoski @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 02:35:02 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I knew you

I knew you guys could name 'em off the top of your heads.  Very well done!

And, since some are broadening to presidents, Taft later became Chief Justice of the Supreme Court.  This is my preferred Obama career path after 2016.

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by: sicembears @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 11:08:36 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Current Senator Jim Risch (R-ID)

Was Lt. Gov., then Gov., then Lt. Gov. again, before running for Senate upon the...uh, loss of nominee Craig.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 18:25:40 PM CST

[ Parent ]

First Putnam, now Blunt

Guess the sizzling charisma of Boehner and Cantor isn't a great incentive for Republicans to stay in the House.

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by: Siobhan @ Wed Feb 18, 2009 at 20:18:54 PM CST

Well

Couldnt the same be said of Pelosi and Hoyer with a House Democrats like Meeks, Davis, Sanchez, Hodes, etc not staying in the House?

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

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by: Kyle98632 @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 10:15:01 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Not as high up the ladder

Davis is on Appropriations and was a member of the whip team in the 109th Congress (although he doesn't seem to have been since the 110th).

Meek is on Ways and Means. He appears never to have been a fixture in the leadership.

I'm not sure who you mean by Sanchez. Both the Sanchez sisters are remaining in Congress, whilst Solis' elevation to Cabinet is clearly a promotion.

Hodes, meanwhile, is a sophomore without a place in leadership or a particularly significant committee place.

So I think the answer is no. Putnam was the third ranking Republican in the House until earlier this year, and walked away to compete for a relatively minor Florida state office. Blunt was the Republican number two (and acting leader after DeLay fell) and appears to be willing to take a drop in status by becoming a low-seniority Senator.

In comparison to that, you have two young black representatives with good committees but no obvious fast track to Congressional leadership opting for promotions (that they'd long been rumoured to be interested in anyway), a potential leadership track representative taking a more prestigious role in the executive branch and a sophomore of no great influence running for a promotion.

The two aren't really comparable.

That said, I don't think Boehner and Cantor will miss Blunt too much. Half the reason Boehner ran for the leadership was because Blunt was viewed as being dirty. It's Putnam that really shows their retention problems.

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by: Englishlefty @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 11:54:42 AM CST

[ Parent ]

But

Neither Putnam or Blunt are in leadership positions, so you cant say they are high ranking. They are formally high ranking. It actually makes it more likely they would be leaving the House having lost their status.

Loretta Sanchez is likely running for Governor of California.

There is a very nice difference between Republicans leaving in 2010 and Republicans leaving in 2008 though, almost all so far are running for higher offices.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

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by: Kyle98632 @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 18:00:55 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Blunt yes

But Putnam dropped out specifically because he isn't running for re-election.

Agreed on the House Repubs looking for a promotion rather than running for the hills but the Senate certainly hasn't shaken off that particular bug.

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 11:28:40 AM CST

[ Parent ]

What Englishlefty said.

If I was just generally talking about Republicans who are considering leaving the house, there's also Hoekstra, Moran and Tiahrt, Rogers, Gerlach, Castle, Mack, Steve King, Barrett... with lots more tk, I'm sure.  

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by: Siobhan @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 13:12:22 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Some better examples

Would be Senators Ben Cardin and Robert Menendez, both of whom were in the House leadership before they ran for/took a seat in the Senate in 06.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 15:43:53 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Great development

Matt ticked off a lot of people by trying to cut funding from so many parts of the budget. My parents tend to be consistent republican supporters, but they won't vote for anything that even sounds like Blunt. His name is dirt and I'd bet it will hurt old man Roy.

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by: Scsouthern @ Wed Feb 18, 2009 at 20:21:18 PM CST

Sounds good to me

Won't be a blowout but I just don't see Blunt beating Carnahan.  Definately our #1 pickup opportunity for now.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Feb 18, 2009 at 20:55:25 PM CST

#2

NH is numero uno.  This is definitely my 2nd pick-up choice now.

Clear Dem primary, bruising GOP one if Steelman gets in (lets hope).  Should be fun!

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by: Andrew @ Wed Feb 18, 2009 at 20:59:02 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Clay?

Why on earth would Rep. Clay be considering this race?  Weighing his options, come on now.  Don't be dumb.

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by: Andrew @ Wed Feb 18, 2009 at 20:58:25 PM CST

Maybe Obama Inspired Him?

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Wed Feb 18, 2009 at 22:13:00 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Blunt's district

Obama lost the district by a 63-35 margin last November, only a slight improvement from John Kerry's 67-32 beatdown four years earlier.

and that is why Blunt has little to no chance winning statewide against a popular Democrat like Carnahan.  He will get destroyed in the St. Louis and Kansas City suburbs.  It's going to be a very satisfying win.

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by: skaje @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 01:17:40 AM CST

Blunt's district

Doesnt this district also have a sizable number of conservative Dems, as well? Though being from rural, SW Mizzou probably doesnt help in the more cosmopolitan suburban areas.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 15:47:59 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Steeleman

I believe Sarah Steeleman, dispite her recent GOP primary loss, would be a better nominee than Blunt. Steeleman's outsider maverick message I think would have more appeal than Blunt's.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

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by: Kyle98632 @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 10:16:38 AM CST

Objectively

I completely agree.
Now do Republicans do the smart and electable thing, or the ideological purism thing?

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by: Nico @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 13:55:17 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I'm guessing Blunt

Steelman lost to Hulshof to be the R candidate for governor.  If she can't beat Hulshof in a statewide R primary, I don't think can beat Blunt.

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by: sicembears @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 17:35:00 PM CST

[ Parent ]

agreed

Steelman would make a much better challenger for Carnahan than Blunt.  But I just cannot imagine she can beat Blunt in a primary.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 18:39:19 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Blunt will easily win the primary

and lose to Carnahan by 5+%.  It will be a wider margin than the amount that her dad won in 2000 or her mom lost in 2002, or that McCaskill won by in 2006.

Robin Carnahan is as strong as Jay Nixon, and Blunt isn't much better than Hulshof (never did understand why he did so badly).  That is a recipe for a mini-landslide.  

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by: IHateBush @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 17:10:56 PM CST

Nixon-Hulshof

That race was really an abberation from Missouri's tradition of consistently close elections.  I too was a little mystified why Hulshof did so poorly.  the only thing I could think of was that Blunt Jr. really damaged the R brand, at least for governor.

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by: sicembears @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 17:42:11 PM CST

[ Parent ]