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OH-Sen: Fisher and Brunner Both Lead Portman

by: Crisitunity

Wed Feb 04, 2009 at 12:53 PM EST


Quinnipiac (1/29-2/2, registered voters):

Lee Fisher (D): 42
Rob Portman (R): 27

Jennifer Brunner (D): 38
Rob Portman (R): 28

Lee Fisher (D): 41
Mary Taylor (R): 27

Jennifer Brunner (D): 38
Mary Taylor (R): 26
(MoE: ±2.9%)

Rob Portman (R): 33
Mary Taylor (R): 11
(MoE: ±5.1%)

Lee Fisher (D): 18
Jennifer Brunner (D): 16
Tim Ryan (D): 14
(MoE: ±4.4%)

Quinnipiac polls a whole bunch of different permutations on the Ohio Senate race, including the primary races, and you gotta like what you see here. Lt. Gov Lee Fisher and Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner both lead ex-Rep. and ex-OMB Director Rob Portman by double digits. The only missing element is head-to-heads involving Rep. Tim Ryan, who also seems likely to run (and they do poll him in the primary)... but judging by the similarity between Fisher and Brunner's numbers, it seems like the candidates are running more as 'generic D' and 'generic R' right now, and he'd do just as well.

The unknowns are very high even in the general, but they're catastrophically high in the primary heats, with the majority of the electorate in the "don't know" camp right now. This is especially the case in the hypothetical GOP primary, where Portman (who has already committed to the race) is tested against the little-known Auditor Mary Taylor. (Taylor hasn't publicly expressed any interest in the Senate race; discussion of her at this point seems to be limited to online GOP fanboys depressed with the drab Portman and casting about for someone Sarah Palin-esque to give them the twinkles.)

A few weeks ago, PPP tried out Fisher, Brunner, and Ryan against Portman, and Portman won all three of those tests, although not by particularly large margins. So this Q-poll, in and of itself, shouldn't be taken as a promise of a pickup; this is going to be a hard fought race for the next two years. (H/t Leftist Addiction.)
Crisitunity :: OH-Sen: Fisher and Brunner Both Lead Portman
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OH-Sen: Fisher and Brunner Both Lead Portman | 97 comments
very good stuff
i saw somewhere that gov strickland is encouraging lee fisher to run - and he seems like a pretty good candidate.  but on this website, tim ryan seems like the more popular guy.  is there much to choose between them?
Saw the same thing
Think it was on Politico.  Part of the public explanation was that Democrats want to hold onto the SoS position because it plays some important role in redistricting.

As to the poll, those are great numbers.  I had assumed Ohio would be a nailbiter, but it now seems entirely possible, even likely, that we have a significant edge once the candidates are selected.  With Hodes and Carnahan officially jumping in, the best R candidates in Colorado declining, and NH opening up, 2010 is starting to shape up very nicely.

[ Parent ]
Three cycles running without losing a seat?
Possible.
[ Parent ]
I decided to look it up
And even in the first three Senate (1930/1932/1934) election cycles that brought about the major New Deal realignment Dems didn't run the table.  Here are the gains/losses

1930 - 9 pickups, 1 loss
1932 - 12 pickups, 0 loss
1934 - 9 pickups, 0 loss

So in total there were 30 pickups and 1 loss.

The current re-alignment is:

2006 - 6 pickups, 0 loss
2008 - 8 pickups, 0 loss
2010 - ?

So far 14 pickups and 0 losses.  Pretty impressive.

[ Parent ]
And even more impressive
None of our seats have even come close to being lost in 2006 and 2008.  The closest race for a Dem-held seat in 2008 was Landrieu (LA) who won by about 6 points and in 2006 Menendez (NJ) who won by about 9 points.
[ Parent ]
Partiularly when you look at this
http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...

5 tossups - all Republican seats. Three in states won by Obama. And the president won the only vaguely competitive Dem seats by at least 9 points.  

[ Parent ]
Further
Take a look at that list of Dem Senate losses since 1994 - Moseley Braun, Robb, Carnahan, Cleland, Daschle. The first two were tainted incumbents, the third was appointed and the other two were in very red states. The truth is Dems are very good at incumbent protection. Even in 1994 the loses in the Senate were mainly open seats or red states or in the case of Santorum/Wofford another appointment. If there is trouble to come in 2010 it will be in the House.
[ Parent ]
Worth noting we may be enduring a smaller wave because
We started out with 45 Democrats.  Back during the new deal they had 39 Democrats.  
[ Parent ]
Four fewer senators in total

[ Parent ]
What happened in 1936, when FDR won a landslide reelection ??
Did the Dems pick up more, or were they maxed out?
[ Parent ]
More gains
Dems gained another 5 net seats in 1936 to give them 71 total seats.  In 1938, 1940, 1942 and 1944 they gave back seats.
[ Parent ]
Maybe you saw it here:
[ Parent ]
We've Pretty Much Got The Buckeye State
If even Lee Fischer, who lost to Bob Taft 6 years ago, is leading Portman and Brunner and Ryan not doing too badly as well.  
Actually it was 10 (or 11) yrs ago...
Taft won 50-45% in a pretty competitive race.
[ Parent ]
Did Fisher Run for Governor
In 1998 or 2002?
[ Parent ]
1998
Taft defeated Tim Hagan in 2002.
[ Parent ]
Mary Taylor is not "little-known" in Ohio
First, thanks for the frequent coverage of this very important race for Ohio. I've written (and often extensively) about it several times since Voinovich announced his retirement and definitely see Mary Taylor in the mix repeatedly - including links to others who talk about Taylor with interest.  Here's one post I wrote today which, by the way, links to and was in part inspired by SSP.

About Mary Taylor, you wrote:

You wrote, "This is especially the case in the hypothetical GOP primary, where Portman (who has already committed to the race) is tested against the little-known Auditor Mary Taylor. (Taylor hasn't publicly expressed any interest in the Senate race; discussion of her at this point seems to be limited to online GOP fanboys depressed with the drab Portman and casting about for someone Sarah Palin-esque to give them the twinkles.)"

Based on the sources I read and the people I speak with, Mary Taylor is not "little-known," has been mentioned many times and there is interest in her (and in Jennifer Brunner) from an identity politics perspective - Ohio has never had a female senator in the US Congress. However, the strongest thing going for Mary is the fact that she (and Brunner) have won statewide recently - which is not something any other candidate that's being discussed actually can say except Fisher, who really ran with Strickland.

Add to this the fact that Portman hasn't run for anything in Ohio since 2004, let alone statewide, and that "don't know" looks like an even bigger hurdle (read: money money money).

I know you've been at this a while and have your sources.  But I think you might need to expand beyond them. While I know and can see - like anyone else - that the Ohio Republican Party and the more flaming red bloggers refuse to give her credence and want her to stand down and sit tight until they tell her she can move, that tone and direction is very at odds with what's going to win over the Ohio independents.  I also just think that the GOP's bench for this one is weak, no matter how nice Portman might be portrayed.

Thanks.

Jill Miller Zimon  

Portman is a weak candidate
precisely because of his resume as Trade Representative under Bush.  In particular, he led the charge to outsource jobs overseas from Ohio.
[ Parent ]
even if mary taylor
is talked about on blogs, it doesn't mean she's well known.  And if she is well known and interested, and she pulls 11% in a poll, that's REALLY bad news for her.
She's got something going for her
She held on 2006 when EVERY other statewide Republican went down in flames. Remember, Republicans held EVERY statewide office in Ohio before that election. There's a reason she survived and no one else did. It's my understanding that she did very well in Tim Ryan's area (20 points better than other Republicans? Xochi, where are you? I got my facts from you!)
[ Parent ]
True
I don't know how she did in Ryan's district but her being the last GOP standing after 2006 is very significant.  The ORP is very stuck in its ways and they, like the national, are split re: do we change just image, do we change or modify tenets, or do we just dig in and change nothing - a la Blackwell (although I give him cred for throwing support to Steele).

The extent to which the state parties are out of touch waxes and wanes, but there is absolutely a disconnect and far more so with the ORP and the Ohio voters compared to the ODP and Ohio voters.  Taylor got enough votes to win statewide in a wretched year.  Again - she's not little known.  She may not be looked to to win, but she's definitely known - and trotted out to boot.

Jill Miller Zimon  

[ Parent ]
The reason for this
There's a reason she survived and no one else did. It's my understanding that she did very well in Tim Ryan's area (20 points better than other Republicans? Xochi, where are you? I got my facts from you!)

Taylor's opponent was black, and did unusually poor in working class white areas like NE Ohio.

[ Parent ]
Barbara Sykes
Is the show ran against Taylor.

Are you saying that she underperformed in Cuyahoga County?  I don't recall the finally totals though either of us could look them up, but my recollection is that she lost by more than just a slim margin resulting from underperformance in this area.  Taylor also hammered home the "I am a CPA" refrain and after Tom Noe and all the corruption, that really seemed to sway a lot of people.

By the way - I don't know where you are, but I'm guessing you aren't reading Ohio stuff as much as I do - the ORP is ADAMANT that there is no racism in Ohio so you'd be hard pressed to find anyone on Taylor's side of the aisle who would ever remark that Taylor won because her opponent was black.

Jill Miller Zimon  

[ Parent ]
Sykes lost 50.6-49.4, a very thin margin
She won Cuyahoga by 102K or with 62%. Sherrod Brown won by 186K or 71%.

But I don't think Cuyahoga was the problem by itself.  That thin margin, and Sykes underperforming the rest of the ticket, is explained, at least in part by race.  

[ Parent ]
Not for me to say
As I already wrote.  The Ohio Republican Party bent over backwards in 2008 to say that there is not a single racist in Ohio so whether you are a partisan one way or the other, they will have none of it re: saying that one of their candidates won because of the race of the other. Likewise, the polls seemed to indicate during Obama's run that more white Dems wouldn't vote because of race than Republicans of any race so...

I'll assume you are just asserting your opinion.  Which is what blogs are all about.  

Jill Miller Zimon  

[ Parent ]
I don't give a shit what the Ohio Republican Party
may say.  I wouldn't trust them for anything.  They should know better, after all, Ken Blackwell lost lots of reliably Republican votes in SE Ohio because of his skin color.  
[ Parent ]
Exactly
To say race doesn't play a role is insane.  As you say, Blackwell proves the point.  Ya, he's a batshit crazy conservative, but had he been a white batshit conservative his baseline vote probably would have been 42%.  I'm guessing Blackwell's race cost him a solid 5% of white moderate to conservatives.
[ Parent ]
NSS
Been there done that re: calling it insane but the fact that the ORP stays in denial means they also stay in the minority. Works for me but as a general rule, I'm not into one-party rule.

Jill Miller Zimon  
[ Parent ]
Re the Talyor-Sykes race
As an Ohioan who was active in the 2006 campaigns (I volunteered on behalf of Strickland and Brown), perhaps I can shed a little more light on this. Sykes entered the Auditor's race very late. I believe she entered in January of 2006 (right before the filing deadline). The candidate who was already in, Mahoning County treasurer John Reardon, dropped out to avoid a primary contest. However, Syke's heart just wasn't in it. In fact, I believe she was about to retire from public office when the ODP urged her to run. I also do not recall her campaigning as much as the other candidates (or even appearing alongside the others), nor did I see any ads by her. Then, there was some snafu involving her husband (I do not recall the details), which while not fatal in and of itself, did not do her any favors.

It also didn't help that Taylor and Sykes shared the exact same base: Akron. Where as every other statewide Dem won Summit County by double-digits (even Dann won it, 58-42), Sykes squeaked by 53-46. As for the Mahoning Valley, Sykes garnered 67%, which was lower than every other statewide Dem as well (Strickland and Brown garnered nearly 80% and the others got 70-75%). Had she campaigned a bit harder, I think she would have won.  

[ Parent ]
Bad news or not re: 11%, she's not "little-known"
I stand by my assertion.  

Jill Miller Zimon  
According to the poll
78% have no opinion of her.
[ Parent ]
Did you see the sample size and M/E
Do you know how many people in any state even know who their state auditor is? :)

For a Republican candidate in Ohio who was elected in 2006 when no other GOP candidates were, statewide, "no opinion" is a good thing for Taylor.

Just to be clear - I have no stake and don't care whether she runs or not but I live in Ohio, I follow the politics and other than the fanboys mentioned in this post, Taylor is recognized as having done what none of the others on the right have - get elected statewide since 2006.  If you follow races this early, then you know that we are the wonkiest of the wonks.  People didn't know who Obama was 20 mos out either. Last I checked, he's now president.

Jill Miller Zimon  

[ Parent ]
I'm not saying
Low name ID means she will lose, I'm saying she has low name ID. Whether that's a good or bad thing is another argument altogether. But when 78% of people have no opinion of you, you have low name ID.
[ Parent ]
I'm not saying
Low name ID means she will lose, I'm saying she has low name ID. Whether that's a good or bad thing is another argument altogether. But when 78% of people have no opinion of you, you have low name ID.
[ Parent ]
Since you seem so sure
I'd appreciate you explaining your theory for how someone can win a statewide office, having never held it before, while being on the ticket with all losers and two years later, have no name recognition.

Me? I think it's the survey - I haven't looked at the report since this morning.

You seem to be sure that it's no name recognition.

So how did she win in 11/08?  To me, it just seems illogical that people have now forgotten her.  But if that's your opinion, s'okay.

Jill Miller Zimon  

[ Parent ]
I don't know
The dynamics of that race, but there are plenty of reasons for why that could've happened.

Here in Wisconsin, in our 06 Attorney General's race, the guy who won was a Republican despite the exact same situation of Dems winning all other races of any significance. But, I doubt our AG would have name ID over 35-40% and won because he outspent his opponent significantly in terms of grassroots organizing.

But if your going to dismiss this as merely a shotty poll then it doesn't really matter what I say, does it?

[ Parent ]
Shoddy
Not sure why you think I'm dismissing the poll. It is what it is - 20 months out, no declared candidates except Portman.  Done before Strickland tipped hand to Fisher.  High "not sures" in a state where independent voters control.  Thems the facts for any poll - this one included.  The M/E is high too 4.4 and higher.

Jill Miller Zimon  
[ Parent ]
?!?!
You're not making any sense. The ORP says they aren't racist, so that means that race didn't play a factor in Taylor's win over Sykes?! Not saying its the only factor, Sykes was the weakest on the '06 ticket for other reasons, but even in the ORP's blockbuster 2002 elections, Blackwell won by the smallest margin, IIRC.

I'll agree with you that she has name recognition. After all, her name is broadcast on TV every day during the lottery drawings and she's done a good job generating local headlines auditing the finances of Dem-run cities and calling them inadequate. Taylor is losing this poll for a number of reasons: 1. Ohio GOP voters like Portman. The progressive blogosphere is right to see what a flawed candidate he is, but if you were a republican, you'd find nothing wrong with his resume. 2. Politically tuned in Republicans know that they need to hold on to Taylor's office to have a chance in the redistricting game, therefore they'd rather she keep her current seat and challenge Brown in '12 or run for the open Gov seat in '14. If the auditor's seat was open in '10 and a Dem heavy hitter like Fingerhut or Mallory moved in on it, they would likely lose this critical apportionment seat. Its the same reason why I tentatively would support Fisher or Ryan over Brunner at this juncture (though if Fingerhut moved on the SoS seat to replace Brunner, I would reconsider).

I'm glad to see more Ohio-based commenters in threads like this though. There isn't enough view from the ground on national blogs when talking about Ohio politics.  

[ Parent ]
Why I know you! :)
This is a turn of phrase/reverse psychology thing.  The ORP went around claiming that Strickland and Brown were slandering Ohioans by even the mere suggestion that yes, sadly, there are racists in Ohio.  The ORP didn't like Strickland and Brown bringing out that aspect and so their tactic was to say that 1) there is no racism in Ohio and 2) therefore Strickland and Brown are spreading nasty rumors about Ohio re: they are saying Ohio has racists when, the ORP wants us to believe, there are none in Ohio.

Of course that's not true - that's why I wrote about it - it was an incredibly dumb thing for the ORP to say. But if you recall, many of the conservative blogs then made fun of it and started posting about how since they voted for Blackwell and they are white, then they are Racist-Free etc.

Anyway - this was a minor point - I was only trying to point out how out of touch the ORP is - with everything.

Rest of your comment: yeah - pretty much that's a big part of it re: Taylor. I still would like to see her go rogue though. :)

Jill Miller Zimon  

[ Parent ]
Fair enough
You'd think after a decade plus on these intertubes I'd be better conditioned at recognizing sarcasm!
[ Parent ]
OT but important - Final passage of S-CHIP goes through
The House passed the bill 290-135 today.

Breakdown:
Republicans were 40 for and 135 against
Democrats were 250 for and 2 against

Bright and Marshall were thw two Dem nays.... big surprise.  Still, this kills the idiotic MSM message that it's the Dems who are divided.

No it doesn't
OpenLeft and DailyKos are providing enough sources for that message as is.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Criticism from the left!
Oh horror of horrors! We should totally just let the right drive the entire conversation and make Obama far left in the eyes of the public.

As a sidenote, Bobby Bright is worthless. I hope the DCCC doesn't spend a dime for his reelection campaign.

[ Parent ]
The old adage is true
When both extremes aren't happy you know he is doing something right.
[ Parent ]
The other old adage is true
When you tell your allies we're 'extreme', we get really pissed off, yet no more willing to shut the fuck up and let you drive the party off a cliff.

Give it a rest. Bitching because the Democratic media strategy on the stimulus has sucked and hence made the bill worse is not the same as hoping Obama fails.

[ Parent ]
No need to be testy
Who said anything about people hoping Obama fails? Certainly not me. I actually agree the strategy has been below par but what I see in the netroots is a lot of whining which is very reminiscent of all the bitching about the campaign from June onwards. That worked out ok and so will this. And give the parsing of words a rest. If you aren't moderate you are on one of two sides. I was not being pejorative.  
[ Parent ]
Here we go again
Can we get a frontpage poll on SSP's opinions on Bright and whether he is worth an investment on re-election?
[ Parent ]
1994
1994
[ Parent ]
1802
1802
[ Parent ]
Come on now...
It's ONLY healthcare for poor kids.  Not like it's anything important.
[ Parent ]
The right is driving the entire conversation
and the left, instead of pushing back, is declaring Obama a massive failure.

Take a look at some of the comments there today;


And what did Obama end up doing today? (2+ / 0-)

He only invited more rethugs to the Whitehouse so he could beg for their votes. This is truly beyond sickening. Obama is a master campaigner, but now I'm really questioning if he has the skills to lead.

Obama is pathetic (3+ / 0-)

And this is when Democrats have huge majorities. 2010 will be the next 1994 unless Obama stops being a pansy ass.

I'ts Our Mistake (2+ / 0-)

The mistake is people thinking Obama was ever really a Democrat in the first place.

There is criticism and then there are reactionary attacks, which seem to be comomplace nowadays over on our sister sites...and the media is loving it.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Back during the Obama-Hillary primary wars
I stopped reading MyDD.  Nowadays I find myself reading DailyKos very little as well.  DailyKos may find itself becoming a left-wing version of RedState or Free Republic if thigs don't change there.  Ashame because I'd always liked Markos.
[ Parent ]
Kos impresses me as a numbers man
He's got an ideology he wants to follow but he understands what can and can not get elected. He's got a pragmatic streak.

Heck, he links here often enough. Something tells me he's reading our comments more often than we think.

. . . Hi, Markos!

[ Parent ]
True
But if I want numbers I just go straight to the holy grail of numbers geniuses - Nate Silver.
[ Parent ]
MyDD took the cake.
algere, riverdaughter, etc.
[ Parent ]
The diaries were ridiculous
Some of the slime thrown at Obama on that website were worse than anything the right-wing threw at him during the campaign.  The same could be said to a lesser extent about Daily Kos diaries attacking Hillary.
[ Parent ]
Rather the slime that Alegre and Co.
threw at Obama were exactly the talking points coming from the extreme right-wing.  
[ Parent ]
Daily Kos was equally bad before Edwards dropped out.
How many "Random Union Number 8878 Endorses Edwards" posts were on the rec list? lol
[ Parent ]
Not even close
One could argue, I guess, that dKos reached that level in the general election with attacks on McCain and Palin which were of questionable veracity (e.g. McCain's yellow teeth and Palin's baby were top rec listed), but IMO the attacks on Hillary Clinton were quite mild in comparison to the smears that came from the right.  I really don't want to rehash the primary, but considering I might have been a PUMA if a particular candidate won, I admit that I might be biased.
[ Parent ]
Now kos is totally teetering on the cliff of crazy
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
I disagree
the diarist made many very good points.  What he fails to tell you however, is that FDR was just as centrist as Obama is today, and it took the potential challenge of Huey Long from the left to move him leftward.
[ Parent ]
That kinda blows a hole in the diary though
No one declared Roosevelt a complete failure in two weeks.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Actually the hard left in 1933 did
which consisted of socialists and communists, the hard left of the day.  Within a few months, the Longites joined them in declaring FDR a sellout and failure.
[ Parent ]
FDR really didn't go as far as he could have
That was the one time in our history where everything the left wanted could have been accomplished.  A full welfare state was a real opportunity, but we let it slip away with only half-measures.
[ Parent ]
Same here
MyDD went downhill very quickly once the primary wars began. I always had a few problems with some posters there (especially Matt Stoller), but Jonathan Singer's excellent diaries kept me interested. Then, Jerome Armstrong, for some reasons, launches a jihad against Obama and not a single post went by without a vicious bash. Now, I was never the biggest fan of Hillary (nor will be), but even I never went as far as he did trashing Barack.

Due to my numerous complaints with Bowers and Stoller, I've managed to entirely avoid OpenLeft. As for Daily Kos, I have had a love-hate relationship with that site. I have great respect for what Markos has done, both politically and personally. I also like some of those who post there. However, I grew increasingly tired of the tirades over Lieberman and any other action that was branded as a "sell-out" by Dems or by Barack himself. It was basically an online temper tantrum. And we call ourselves the reality-based community?

Boy, this thread has gone off topic. Still, I find venting like this to be beneficial and even necessary from time to time. Perhaps someone should set up a weekly "venting" thread?

[ Parent ]
So, "The Left"
is three commenters on a blog that receives hundreds daily. Huh, learn something new everyday.
[ Parent ]
Just an example
about 70% of them sound like that in some form or the other  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Sure...
Let's assume that this is true (which it's not). Does anyone here really think that blog commenters have any real media influence (beyond the occasional segment on Rachel Maddow, let alone enough to single-handedly destroy Obama?  
[ Parent ]
Blog Comments
I don't think anyone would argue that people (such as us) who comment on blogs could "single-handedly" destroy Obama. It's a little insulting and short-sighted to say that people who comment on blogs have NO media influence. Are you saying that blogs have no media influence too? I would say that comments affect the general direction of a blog, and that blogs definitely have media influence. This is a stupid argument to have anyway, because "blogs" are so diverse in both their opinions and influence.  
[ Parent ]
Let me put it this way:
70% (as nrafter erroneously claims) of commenters on OpenLeft, which while big and relatively influential is no Daily Kos, saying that Obama has failed would not move the media narrative a single inch.  
[ Parent ]
the commenters
are on DailyKos and I wouldn't put it past the media the way it's been acting to use it to bash him.

"Look, even the Democrats think he sucks!"

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Yep
Yeah, I would tend to agree-- the media loves the theme that the Dems are unhappy with Obama and would definitely pick up on anyone unhappy on blogs such as Daily Kos and Open Left.  
[ Parent ]
'Reactionary'? Give me a break
This is criticism of Obama grounded in a generally observable fact - that Republicans have got more out of this bill than their numbers should allow, and that Obama hasn't used his bully pulpit to fight back.

That isn't a good reason to clap louder. There's a serious case to be made that Obama does need to get his act together and if he isn't acknowledging that then strident criticism of him for that is legitimate and wise. 'Slightly better than Bush' is not a slogan people want to run on in 2010.

[ Parent ]
I'm going to agree on the Bobby Bright
If it came down to the DCCC spending on Bright over a Dem in a tough race who is actually progressive and will vote with us then we better be spending on the non-Bright candidate.

I think the argument of, well if they cant even vote with us on the easy votes, why should we think they will vote with us when we actually need them?  We dont need their vote for Pelosi.

I really support having the big tent and I surely hope Bright wins re-election, but resources better go to Democrats who will be a more reliable vote.

[ Parent ]
I'm not so sure
Bright would be in all that much jeopardy...plus we can always gerrymander him after the census assuming we win the Governorship and hold the legislature...force him a little to the left.

If Bright holds on, great, if he doesn't, oh well.

He may very well become our Connie Morella.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Why we didn't truly gerrymander in 2002
I still don't understand.  There are lots of black votes in southwest Alabama that are being just completely wasted in AL-1.
[ Parent ]
Yes, the Democrats there are a little soft
I think they thought it would be impossible for a Democrat to ever win Bright's seat and invested a lot in helping a Dem win AL-03 (R-Rogers) which we almost did in a horrible election for Dems in the South (2002). Now however I think they will do something to help both Bright and a AL-03 challenger, if so I hope deference is shown towards the AL-03 challenger because that's a much easier seat for us to hold if we can knock off Rogers and it could give us a better Democrat than Bright.

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog
[ Parent ]
This is one of the few places
where the GOP can really field a top-tier candidate; Portman's got some obvious weaknesses (Trade Rep for Bush running in the Rust Belt), but he's still overall a very credible and photogenic challenger.

This and Florida will be the really tight big-ticket races (unless Crist enters Florida, in which case Florida drops off the chart).

Photogenic? Top-tier
Compared to what?

From inside Ohio, this is what the ORP and GOP old boys network push.  Half of them look like each other.

WWMSD?  What would Michael Steele Do?

I'm sorry - I know people are desperate for a GOP big win in Ohio - but none of the candidates are it.  Not Portman either.

Jill Miller Zimon  

[ Parent ]
The Ohio Repubs went black once in 2006
it backfired badly on them as they lost 60-37.
[ Parent ]
And Michael Steal is an Uncle Tom
or a Jewish Nazi, and I'll use that terms, thank you.

If he wants to fight Obama, I'm sure Barack can give him a bloody nose.

[ Parent ]
What is a "Jewish Nazi"?
Do you hate more than just Bush?

Jill Miller Zimon  
[ Parent ]
A person who sells out their own people
to those who would destroy them for a few crumbs.  It is a stronger term than Uncle Tom.

Like Michael Steal spewing Repub talking points and siding with an agenda that is very damaging to blacks.    

[ Parent ]
Uncle Tom?
Uncle Tom is a pretty racist term. It has a historically racist meaning, and despite your use of "Jewish Nazi," (whatever that's supposed to mean) it has no counterpart. The reality is that the Republican agenda hurts everyone. It hurts poor people, GLBT, women, people of color, and even rich people because they will face the environmental consequences of the Republican Party.

To hold Michael Steele to a higher standard than any other Republican because he is black is wrong. The Republican agenda is "very damaging" to the American agenda. Race or any other characteristic should not factor into how Republicans are criticized.  

[ Parent ]
Obama
Also, it's not like Obama or the Democrats have really been helping out African-Americans' interests that much. Industrial waste continues to be put into communities of color, affirmative action continues to be scaled back, and prisons continue to incarcerate more and more African-Americans. Are you saying that Obama is an "Uncle Tom" because of this too?

No, of course not, because Obama is operating under the political framework he has been given. So is Steele though, just as a Republican.  

[ Parent ]
In other Ohio news
Gov. Strickland is very safe in his re-election bid against likely opponent Kasich.  Per Quinnipiac:

Ted Strickland (D): 56
John Kasich (R): 26

they also polled former senator Mike DeWine, who Sherrod Brown waxed by 12% back in 2006.

Ted Strickland (D): 54
Mike DeWine (R): 32

A little bit stronger based on name recognition, but for a former Lt. Governor and US Senator, those are unelectable numbers.  I doubt he runs.

Together with the Senate numbers it's pretty clear Ohio's blue turn recently has not ebbed.  The wingers were making some noise about getting Strickland, and he's usually mentioned as slightly vulnerable by forecasters.

His vulnerability
Has always been badly overestimated by the right.  Strickland's approval has always been somewhere between the mid 50's and mid 60's since he's been in office.  He's a perfect fit for the state and I just cannot see Ohio going back to being the party of Taft republicans anytime soon.
[ Parent ]
Yes he is :)
While I've had a few disagreements with Governor Ted (mostly from when he was in Congress), I cannot express how grateful I am to have him as governor. Even though he had been in the US House for a number a years, I never realized how politically skillful he was until he became governor. Plus, he'll always have my gratitude for vanquising Ken "Katherine Harris" Blackwell.
[ Parent ]
The massive defeats
Blackwell and Katherine Harris suffered were some of the best moments of 2006.

Besides, you know, taking Congress.

[ Parent ]
Justice Ginsberg had pancreatic cancer surgery today
No full story yet but it's a headline at CNN.com  Hope she's ok.  Thankfully if the worst happened her legacy will carry on thanks to last fall's election.
KY-Sen: Deadlock For Everbody
From Daily Kos today.

Looks like nobody's got a clear advantage, even if Jim Bunning's a senile dud.

Hmmm
I was hoping for better even this early.  Then again this might be a good thing.  It may give Bunning even more encouragement to run again.
[ Parent ]
I'm Very Curious
When Crisitunity put his latest post up regarding the KY-Sen. polls, did he do his own due diligence of fact finding in Research 2000, or did he just look at my comment here and just failed to acknowledge that I broke the story? Yet, someone like Populista is constanly getting props for doing the same thing. Strange double standard.
[ Parent ]
It's just a poll
I don't think the frontpagers should feel obligated to credit whichever commenter links to it first.  Now, for original analysis, that deserves credit.
[ Parent ]
Ya, who cares really?
Sometimes you'll get credit for posting first, sometimes you won't.  
[ Parent ]
My personal rule of thumb
on hat-tipping is do it when a comment actually leads me to find out about a poll or other piece of information I haven't seen otherwise. If I know from elsewhere about a poll, and someone posts a comment about it while I'm in the middle of typing it up which I don't stumble on until later, I don't feel the need to go back and retroactively hat-tip. I certainly understand the desire to get some sort of tangible reward/recognition here... seeing as we don't have mojo like they do at Kos or Open Left... but ultimately, it's not a race. (And at any rate, you've gotten h/t'd twice in the last couple weeks, so you're not hurting on that front.)
[ Parent ]
No double standards here
As Crisitunity said, we will give hat-tips when people have tipped us off to something that we haven't already seen. If no one gets a hat-tip, that means we caught the nugget independently. We're very consistent on that, as I feel that everyone should get credit where it is due.

But more importantly, we've been making a point for quite some time that we'd appreciate it if people would post substantive diaries rather than hijack front-page posts with off-topic comments. Please try to respect this.

[ Parent ]
OH-Sen: Fisher and Brunner Both Lead Portman | 97 comments

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