Premium Sponsor


Featured Sponsor


Our Sponsors


Ad Networks

Advertise Liberally

Buy an ad on all of the top liberal blogs with just one click.

Site Stats

NH-Sen: Newman Gets the Call; SSP Moves Race to "Tossup"

by: James L.

Tue Feb 03, 2009 at 5:13 PM EST


Lynch makes it official:

New Hampshire Governor John Lynch officially announced this afternoon that Republican J. Bonnie Newman will replace Judd Gregg in the US Senate if Gregg is confirmed as commerce secretary. [...]

Newman, 63, who has not previously held elected office, was an assistant commerce secretary under President Reagan and also worked in President George H.W. Bush's White House. She also worked for Gregg when he was a US representative and supported Lynch for governor. [...]

Lynch said Newman will not run in 2010, and will not endorse any candidate in that race in a state turning more Democratic.

While the merits of the Gregg appointment are pretty troubling (after all, we are talking about a dude who, in the 1990s, voted to abolish the same Department that he is now going to run), this isn't a bad deal for us. Newman couldn't possibly be more conservative than Gregg, and she's promising not to even make an endorsement for her successor.

Paul Hodes has an excellent shot at this next year.

UPDATE: With Gregg exiting the Senate, SSP has moved our rating of this race from "Lean Republican" to "Tossup". With a competent campaign, though, Hodes should be able to earn himself an edge.

James L. :: NH-Sen: Newman Gets the Call; SSP Moves Race to "Tossup"
Tags: , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
This is particuarly delicious because the NH GOP is now run by Sununu's daddy.
Sr. is a rock-solid social conservative who will probably insist the Republican nominee be a pro-life populist like Jen Horn so there goes the woman's vote.  

Any thoughts on who'll run for Hodes' seat?
It's the more Democratic of the two, as I understand.

"will not endorse"
That's an interesting detail.  So this is a real placeholder figure who won't even try to endorse/campaign for her R-candidate successor in 2010.

Master stroke by Obama
Look, when has the Commerce Department been particularly useful for anything? In the past, the Director awas mostly a fundraiser for the president. Even if this replacement does decide to run, she may not survive the primary and even if she did, Hodes will kick her ass. I always thought Gregg was vulnerable, but the new situation gives us an edge.

Yeah...
"The mission of the department is to 'promote job creation and improved living standards for all Americans by creating an infrastructure that promotes economic growth, technological competitiveness, and sustainable development.'"

Yeah...it's not like any of those things are particularly important, especially given today's circumstances...

This is a bad pick, period - the 10-20% increased chance at a electoral pickup doesn't come near the harm that Gregg can employ over as many as the next eight years.


[ Parent ]
What's Ironic
Is that Gregg voted back in 1995 to abolish the Commerce Dept. Kinda reminds me of John Bolton, who in 1994 said the UN didn't exist, only to become U.S Ambassador to the United Nations.

[ Parent ]
Well
if he hates the Commerce department, why not lead the fight to abolish it? Put NOAA (half of it's budget) under interior and move the rest under Treasury or make them independent.

Then we get rid of Gregg and a department traditionally used to promote the interests of multinational corporations. Plus then Obama can say he's shrinking government. Win, win to me.  


[ Parent ]
Maybe that's the secret plan


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
The CD has its uses
Bill Richardson was supposed to get it and go to North Korea in that capacity, more or less armed with the ability to provide money and business connections in certain respects.  Now, it isn't exactly the Department of Official Bribes To Other Countries, but that is more or less the capacity in which it can be employed.  Soft power diplomacy, gladhanding behind the scenes.

[ Parent ]
I can definitely live with this
From the Senate stand point this is all good--for two years we get a more moderate vote and then an open seat where we should be the favorite.  If Gregg stayed, I think his chances of winning were roughly 2-1; now I'd say Hodes is roughly a 2-1 favorite and this seat becomes our number 1 takeover prospect.

Gregg at Commerce seems OK.  First, Commerce is a relatively minor cabinet position.  Second, I like the bipartisan cover it provides to have a fiscal conservative pimping Obama's economic program.  Hopefully any discretionary damage he can do is limited.


Comparison to Maine
I don't quite get all the hand-wringing about this decision.  To me the best comparison is the Maine Senate seat in 2008...

Does anyone doubt that if Collins would have ridden off into the sunset and left behind an open-seat that Tom Allen would be a US Senator today?  It's not a perfect comparison, but I think it's pretty close.  

On the purely political merits, this selection turned this seat into a lean GOP to a toss-up, and maybe even a lean Dem seat once the dust settles and we see who emerges on the GOP side.

Sure, it'd be better if Hodes could be the appointee, but barring that I think this is great for Dem prospects in 2010.


a random thought...
over the past few years, there has been a substantial rise in the number of influential jewish politicians (with the vast, vast, majority being democrats). I think this is an interesting phenomenon, and as a Jew, has piqued my interest.
For example,
- Gov. Markell (D-Del.)
- Sen. Bennet (D-Co.)
- Rep. Grayson (D-Fl.)
- Rep. Hodes (D- Nh)
- Rep. Cantor (R-Va.) Whip

The list really goes on and it is very interesting. Thoughts?  


Bennett is Jewish?
Hmm, learn something new everyday.

[ Parent ]
To add.
  Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D-PA) and Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL).  With any luck they will be senators soon.

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy

[ Parent ]
Huh?
Cantor is Jewish?

[ Parent ]
I'll be damned
Looked it up and sure enough he is.  Never had a clue.  Is Cantor traditionally a Jewish last name?

[ Parent ]
yes
and a cantor is the position right under rabbi in a synagogue

he's definitely a jew :)


[ Parent ]
Here in Texas
Both the Speaker of the State House (Joe Straus) and President Pro Tempore of the State Senate (Florence Shapiro) are Jewish Republicans. Kind of a rarity to have 2 Jewish Republicans holding major state legislative positions in the same state at the same time. Shapiro either lives in Rep. Johnson or Rep. Hall's district and could definitely see her running for Congress when her congressman retires. Johnson is in his late 70s and Hall is in his mid 80s. Politics1 even has her listed as running for the Senate in 2012 (Im assuming in 2010 if KBH resigns her seat to run for Gov.)

[ Parent ]
yep.
The one/last Jewish Republican in Congress.

[ Parent ]
They are easily
The most overrepresented group in politics.  They have something like a dozen or more Senators and make up barely 2% of the U.S. population.

[ Parent ]
Yeah hot damn
That is one thing I've never understood.

[ Parent ]
Don't like to get into stereotypes
But it's a good stereotype to have.  I think it boils down to the work ethic of Jews.  It's my experience that they are the hardest working group of people I've ever met.  Guess when you can survive all of the things they've been subjected to over many generations running and winning public office doesn't seem so hard.


[ Parent ]
Jewish legislators
JEWISH LEGISLATORS RULE

I'd be surprised if there has been a "substantial" increase in the number of Jewish legislators in recent years.  When I was the editor of a Jewish newspaper many years ago, I used to know the exact number.  I couldn't possibly remember the number, but there were dozens -- and have been for decades.

In Jewish religious services, cantors help lead congregations in prayer.  They are trained singers (in Spanish, cantar equals to sing).

And although Cantor is not a common name, Eddie Cantor was Jewish as well.

Shalom,
ZWrite


[ Parent ]
Well what the hell happened to this particular Cantor?
At what point did Eric Cantor disavow all caring and compassion for his fellow man that every Jew I've ever known has?  It's got to be hard for the guy to even go to the synogogue having views as out of touch with the Jewish community as he has.

[ Parent ]
It is interesting.
Another interesting thing to note is how many Jews we have in the California delegation alone. It's true California houses the second-largest Jewish community in the country, concentrated around West Side L.A. and Hollywood, but it's still amazing how many Jews we send to Congress.

Both Senators, Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Levy Boxer, are Jews. I'm not surprised because a last name with "Stein" is most likely Jewish, and Boxer's maiden name Levy is also a Jewish name. (The late Chandra Levy was also Jewish.) Amazing that in one election, 1992, we decided to send two Jewish women to the Senate.

Of our 53 Representatives, a whopping 7 are Jewish.

Brad Sherman (CA-27; San Fernando Valley)
Howard Berman (CA-28; San Fernando)
Adam Schiff (CA-29; Burbank/Glendale/Pasadena)
Henry Waxman (CA-30; West Side L.A.)
Jane Harman (CA-36; Beach Cities)
Bob Filner (CA-51; Imperial County/Chula Vista)
Susan Davis (CA-53; San Diego)

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)


[ Parent ]
Hey:
Don't forget New York, the vast "Empire State." It too has a good number of Jews in their congressional delegation. The senior senator, Chuck Schumer, is Jewish.

Of the 29 representatives, 6 are Jewish:

Steve Israel (NY-02, Long Island)
Gary Ackerman (NY-05, LI and Queens)
Jerrold Nadler (NY-08, Manhattan & Brooklyn)
Anthony Weiner (NY-09, Brooklyn & Queens)
Eliot Engel (NY-17, Rockland County & the Bronx)
Nita Lowey (NY-18, Westchester)


[ Parent ]
The Palm Beach, Florida area
It's basically an extension of New York.  Wasserman-Shultz, Klein and Wexler.

[ Parent ]
South FL Jewish Republicans
Isnt there a few Jewish Republicans, from south FL, who are in the FL state legislature? I wonder if any will run in Klein's district.  

[ Parent ]
There might be a few left
We did manage to oust a couple of them in 2006 who representing democraticleaning districts.  There might be a couple of them left thoguh.

[ Parent ]
Ileana kinda sorta
from her Wikipedia bio:

Project Vote Smart lists Ros-Lehtinen as Episcopalian. Ros-Lehtinen's maternal grandparents were Sephardic Jews from Turkey who had been active in Cuba's Jewish community. Her mother later converted to Catholicism.

(Her husband is of Finnish ancestry, but Wiki does not mention his religion, if any.)

Her own campaign site, in the bio under the "About" tab, mentions no religious affiliation for herself or her family at all, a rather remarkable rarity for a politician.

Then there's this from the Congresspedia bio:

Ros-Lehtinen has supported and sponsored several pieces of legislation for the Church of Scientology [1], attended Scientology events [2], received recognition from Scientology publications [3], and collected numerous sizable campaign donations from prominent Scientologists [4].

So maybe she has good reason to keep references to her religious, uh, connections off her official campaign website.


[ Parent ]
Schiff
I really like Schiff's advocacy on getting America to recognize the Armenian Genocide. Although he politically has to. His district has the most Armenians, by far probably, of any in the nation. Glendale itself has like 85,000 Armenians...about 40% of the city's population. A good friend of mine whos an Armenian lives in Glendale and can definitely say they are very passionate about pro-Armenian causes. Good work by Schiff, once again..  

[ Parent ]
Being 1/4 Armenian myself
From my maternal grandfather, I too praise Schiff for working for Armenian causes.

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

[ Parent ]
The Commerce Department should be abolished
THE COMMERCE DEPARTMENT SHOULD BE ABOLISHED

First of all, it's a hodgepodge of agencies that don't have much to do with each other like the weather service and the census bureau.

Second of all, the department devotes an awful lot of taxpayer money helping wealthy executives and big businesses.  They don't need government's help, which should be focused on those who need it.

Third of all, that lofty mission statement that one poster mentioned is also achieved by other Cabinet departments.  There is a tremendous amount of duplication.

The essential parts of the Commerce Department should be transferred to other departments.  If it's in our national security interest to help the commerce of big business, those functions can also be absorbed by other departments (and actually they are so there's more duplication).

The Commerce Department has traditionally been run by super-duper fundraisers like Baldridge for Reagan, Ron Brown for Clinton, Evans for Bush Jr., Mosbacher for Bush Sr.  I have seen no evidence that these secretaries and their departments have been focused on people who need the government's help.

Big businesses need to pay their own way so taxpayer resources can be more focused.

Shalom,
ZWrite



Perhaps the Greatest Secretary of Commerce of them all?
You reminded me of the man Richard Nixon named as his Secretary of Commerce. I'll let Wikipedia provide the sordid details:

Maurice Hubert Stans (March 22, 1908 - April 14, 1998) was the finance chairman for the Committee to Re-elect the President, working for the re-election of Richard Nixon. He was a peripheral figure in the ensuing Watergate Scandal. Money that he raised for the campaign was clearly used to finance some of the illegal Watergate activities. However, Stans always maintained, and it has not been proven to the contrary, that he had no knowledge of the various Watergate crimes.

It was rumored Stans was the source for raising the million dollars in cash Nixon kept in the White House safe. This cash was used to pay E. Howard Hunt and the Cuban Watergate Burglers. Stans raised the cash from a list of large contributors by threatening IRS audits.

He was indicted in 1973 for perjury and obstruction of justice, but was acquitted the following year.



[ Parent ]
Greatest Secretary of Commerce? Hoover
That's right, Herbert Hoover's job immediately before becoming President was Secretary of Commerce.

[ Parent ]
Of course
You are so right.

So perhaps Judd Gregg was right, too. We'd be better off abolishing the Commerce Department and the Cabinet post.


[ Parent ]
In regard
To a comment of yours from the other day: We have repeatedly stated that we find this kind of rhetoric unacceptable. Attacking the intelligence and knowledge of users with whom you disagree is not only a shameful debating tactic, but it crosses an unacceptable line into abusiveness. We strive very, very hard to keep SSP a civil and welcoming place, and we're humbled by the gratitude people have expressed for that. We're not going to let that change.

You've been warned twice before about exactly this pattern of behavior (here and here). Two warnings are more than most people get, and three is almost unheard of. But you seemed to respond appropriately to that second warning - until now - so we're willing to give you one final chance.

If you can keep your emotions in check and refrain from attacking the intelligence and knowledge of other users, then you are free to stay. But we won't tolerate any backsliding on this whatsoever.


[ Parent ]
So where do we stand recruiting wise?
Florida - Rep. Meek, Gelber
Kentucky - Lt. Gov. Mongiardo
Missouri - Sec of State Carnahan
Ohio - Rep. Ryan (?), Lt. Gov. Fisher (?)
Kansas - Gov. Sebelius (?)
Pennsylvania - Rep. Schwartz (?)
New Hampshire - Rep. Hodes
North Carolina - Cooper (?)
Texas - White (?)

If we can push a few more of these big name undecides we're in great shape.  So far the only apparent letdown in recruiting is Florida.


White is in
No question mark needed -- he's already raising a bunch of scrilla, too.

[ Parent ]
So let me get this right
Technically, they are all just raising money for 2012 Senate election since as legally, that is what paperwork has been filed.  But then once KBH resigns her seat or just doesnt and wins and vacates, they'd be able to transfer that money to a new account for that special election.

And did KBH say she is definitely not a candidate in 2012?  Couldnt she still technically to decide that if she loses the primary, she'd stick around in the Senate.  She's moderate enough in terms of whose in who in the Senate currently and could still got stuff done in the super minority post-2010.


[ Parent ]
I'd not pencil in KBH to win the primary
Sarah Palin's endorsement of Perry is a game changer, especially if she comes down to campaign for Perry.  Palin is ridiculously popular among Texas Repubs.

[ Parent ]
I'm Skeptical
You're right that Palin is very popular among Texas Republicans, but I'm skeptical that endorsements make much of a difference.  Also, consider that Texas has open primaries--any registered voter can vote in either party's primary.  So, there will be lots of independents and even Democrats voting in that primary.  I myself will likely vote in the Republican primary because I prefer Hutchison to Perry, unless there is a Democratic primary battle that I feel more strongly about (maybe White v. Sharp?).  

[ Parent ]
If I lived in Texas
I would vote for Perry in the Repub primary because I think a Democrat have a chance to beat him.

[ Parent ]
Perhaps
I'm not opposed to that strategy.  It all depends on how much worse you think Perry will be than Hutchison and how much better you think the Democrat would be and how likely you think the Democrat would prevail in the general.  I'm pretty skeptical that a generic Democrat would beat Perry and I think Perry is significantly worse than Hutchison, but if polling shows Perry is vulnerable to the Dem, I may be voting for Perry (I just threw up a little).

[ Parent ]
On most of the issues
Hutchison is no better than Perry.  She has an undeserved reputation as a moderate, but when push comes to shove and her vote is needed, it is in the bank for the right.  

[ Parent ]
Only moderate by Texas standards
Which means in 35 or 40 other states in the country she'd be considered batshit crazy right-wing.

[ Parent ]
Legal, But Not Happening
I pretty sure it's legal for KBH to keep her Senate seat while running for governor, but I believe she's definitely indicated that she will resign before the primary to concentrate on the race.  Of course, if she lost the GOP gubernatorial primary, then she could run against the incumbent in 2012 if a D wins in 2010.


[ Parent ]
Need someone in Louisiana
Then you have a top ten target list. Beyond that we need a Grassley retirement.

[ Parent ]

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

Talk to your supporters, not tech support. Campaign Engine is the powerful, affordable Progressive Campaign Software.

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

SSP Race Ratings

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox