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MO-Sen, NH-Sen: Carnahan and Hodes Are Both In

by: Crisitunity

Tue Feb 03, 2009 at 12:53 PM EST


Say hello to two possible new senators in 2011: Robin Carnahan and Paul Hodes. Both confirmed today that they will be running in 2010, Carnahan in Missouri and Hodes in New Hampshire.

Missouri Sec. of State Carnahan will be running for the seat left open by Kit Bond's retirement; her opponent won't be known for a while (there will probably be a competitive GOP primary, with Rep. Roy Blunt, ex-Sen. Jim Talent, and ex-Treasurer Sarah Steelman eyeing the race), but a recent PPP poll shows her ahead of all of them. Her announcement video is here.

Rep. Paul Hodes is running for a seat that may or may not be open; it's still unclear who Gov. John Lynch will appoint to replace Judd Gregg (who will become Commerce Secretary), although sources point to Gregg's former chief of staff Bonnie Newman. The Union-Leader reports: "She is not expected to run for a full term in 2010."

Hodes had already been considering an uphill battle against an incumbent Gregg, but with the Gregg's departure and the expectation that Newman will serve two years and not run for re-election, it looked like too good an opportunity for Hodes to pass up.

The developments surrounding that surprising appointment by President Obama "has sped up his timeline and he will make a formal announcement within the week," the source said.
Crisitunity :: MO-Sen, NH-Sen: Carnahan and Hodes Are Both In
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MO-Sen, NH-Sen: Carnahan and Hodes Are Both In | 67 comments
No rush....
But we're looking at you Governor Sebelius...
Ryan and Cooper

[ Parent ]
Specter
Someone needs to step up now to take out Arlen "Always There Until You Need Him" Specter. I'm pulling for Schwartz.  
[ Parent ]
re
I'm not sure Ryan being the strongest in OH is as clear as Cooper being the strongest in NC.
[ Parent ]
He is if Fisher is leaning against

[ Parent ]
Jennifer Brunner
Isn't running and other than her, Ryan is probably the strongest candidate. And I think an argument could certainly be made that Ryan is stronger than her.
[ Parent ]
Has Brunner made statements to that effect?
She has recently gone to Washington to speak with Reid and Menendez.  That tells us she's at least considering it.  
[ Parent ]
Hell yeah
Hope that language is not too inappropriate at SSP but that is awesome news.  Cooper and Sebelius would be HUGE as well.  That would be a serious recruiting bonanza.

I know its OT but how about Bill White raising $640K in two weeks 23 months out from an election.  This seems like a Dem that could seriously compete statewide, at the very least from a fundraising perspective.  

[ Parent ]
He'll need it in Texas

[ Parent ]
No doubt
and in case you couldnt tell I am "seriously" excited (I didnt realize I used that word twice in 3 sentences until just now).
[ Parent ]
Are we sure it's 23 months out?
I was under the impression Hutchison may resign early and turn it into a special election.
[ Parent ]
Good call Chad
I forgot about that.  Isnt something like if she resigns after Jan 1, 2010 then its Nov 2010 but if its before Jan 1, 2010 then its in Mar or Apr 2010?
[ Parent ]
When is the GOP primary for TX-Gov?
same as other primaries? early of later 2010?
[ Parent ]
March 2009
Long time from now.

Still don't know when Hutch will CHOOSE to resign.

[ Parent ]
Both should plan for a tough race
cos events may alter the view that 2010 would be good for democrats. Obama's "stimulus" or "recovery" sales job is terrible? Worse, he seems unprepared for the GOP faux spin (duh!..what did he expect? didn't he learn anything from Clinton 1993?).

Clinton remained popular through August 1993 but after the weight of "a thousand cuts" his poll numbers had collapsed by the fall and you all know what happened in 1994. It would be a tragedy of immense proportions for events to repeat themselves.

1994 and 2010
Um, I don't know if you have seen the many pieces written by Nate Silver and others about why this will not be a repeat of 1994, but I would recommend checking those out, because the rhetoric that 2010 will be like 1994 has been played over and again.

But I agree with your general point-- the national political winds can shift directions quickly, and these candidates should not expect to be shoe-ins.  

[ Parent ]
Always plan for tough campaigns
Definitely.
[ Parent ]
Carnahan will have a tougher race
I think Hodes can start ordering the name plates.
[ Parent ]
Since when is any cycle like another?
Or you could just as easily say 2010 might be like 2002 and the president's party gains seats. I think it'll be more like '78 but we shall see.
[ Parent ]
O God not 1978
even though the 1978 mid-terms barely budged the Democratic margins in Congress, it as a good test run for the conservative movement. They came close in many races, which gave them the drive to finish off the Dems in 1980.

From my perspective, 1980 was much more devastating to long term progressive politics than 1994.  

[ Parent ]
Well that kinda proves my point
Since Clinton won in '96 anyway. Swings and roundabouts.
[ Parent ]
Except he was impeached 2 yrs latter
and by 2000, the GOP motivated enough and Independents and moderate Dems disenchanted enough to let them snatch the White House from Gore in a period of peace and prosperity. Oy!
[ Parent ]
And he turned into a DINO
Clinton became more or less a DINO after his 1994 disaster.
[ Parent ]
On the contrary
[ Parent ]
First and third elections
Midterms are usually hard...statistically on the party holding the presidency, but 1994 was something extraordinary, especially in the days of gerrymandering and "safe seats".  So one election cycle can fit into a pattern, but 2010, while harder than '08 or '06, shouldn't be nearly as catastrophic.  Still, we would be lucky to not lose a few seats and very lucky to end up with a net positive.  Whichever of these it is depends on recruitment and all the other fun things we SSPers are totally enamored of.
[ Parent ]
2010
Even if 2010 is a good year for the GOP I just dont see how the Dems dont get to 60 seats. In the House maybe the GOP will actually have a net gain (I think its unlikely though, given that many GOP House members will want to bolt) but not in the Senate by a longshot. 2004 is a good example of how Senate elections dont necessarily reflect the national mood. 2004 had a bitterly close Presidential election (where the sitting Pres. had mediocre approval ratings) yet the GOP picked up 6 Senate seats. Thats as many as the Dems won in 2006 in a year where the GOP was ungodly unpopular. True, the GOP also lost 2 that year, too (IL and CO) but still netting 6 seats is impressive...even if all but 1 were in the south. And they were so successful due to Democratic senators bolting in droves in red leaning states. True, only 1 retirement is in a blue leaning state...NH. But I could definitely see Grassley retiring. And the GOP hasnt had a great track record in the last couple years in pure swing states (where theres retirements in FL and MO and OH).  
[ Parent ]
Of the potentially vulnerable Repub seats
Obama won two handily (NH, PA), won 3 narrowly (OH, FL, NC), lost one narrowly (MO), and lost 2 handily (KS,KY).

Of the vulnerable Democratic seats, Obama won all of them handily (NV, IL, CO, NY).

I don't see the Repubs beating Reid or Bennet, as the candidates that the Repubs offer are poor.  They have an chance to knock off Gillibrand with Peter King if Gillibrand has to deal with a nasty primary, but it is a longshot at best.  Their best shot to avoid a third straight cycle of picking up zero Democratic seats is Illinois.

[ Parent ]
Obama is not Clinton
He is far more popular, and his supporters are far more devoted. Plus, Obama was elected in a landslide, and Clinton won with just 43% (although he had a few more EVs than Obama). I think Obama has farther to fall before he hits the ground than Clinton did.

As for the downticket races and his effect on them, the GOP is in shambles at best. They have no donors, no recruits, and very few real opportunities in 2010, even if Obama suddenly became immensely unpopular. Sure, they might HOLD some of their open Senate seats and some of their endangered incumbents will probably survive, but the only seat they have a real shot at taking is Colorado, and even that doesn't look good. The Dems are likely to take Missouri, New Hampshire, and Kentucky (against Bunning), no matter what happens with Obama, and they have plenty of opportunities besides those. I think the only place Obama's potential unpopularity would be a factor on the Senate races is Ohio and maybe Florida, and we still hit 60 with some breathing room without those two.

[ Parent ]
Agreed on races
MO, NH, and KY probably lean our way once we get all of the candidates lined up.

OH, and FL I have a feeling are going to be heartbreakers.  Both just barely went for Obama in 2008 even with such a huge national tide.  FL had a bit further to flip from red to blue based off of 2004 margins but I thought Obama would at least win OH by something bigger than 3%.

[ Parent ]
Ohio was 4.53 but take your point

[ Parent ]
ah
and FL was the 3%'er I was thinking of.
[ Parent ]
Agree on Florida
Maybe Crist running for the Senate may not be so bad after all.  I think Alex Sink runs and wins the statehouse even in a bad political environment nationally.
[ Parent ]
Sink really is perfect
Someone with a serious financial background is exactly what people will go for in this economy.  Sink fits that bill perfectly.  She was Bank of America (when they were doing well) President at one time.
[ Parent ]
I completely disagree
You are only as powerful as you are popular and only as popular as you are winning the war of public perception.

The GOP bench is no weaker than it was after the 1992 elections. The same "how will the GOP come back?" meme was being reported then, but like I said, events can drastically alter things. Again, recall Reagan 1982.

The GOP can absolutely hold MO and NH, if Obama is immensely unpopular! Being a statewide official like Robin Carnahan doesn't mean jack when facing headwids; case in point: Jay Nixon lost a U.S. Senate race while being MO's AG (same goes with Charlie Crist in FL) and incumbent Gov. Ben Nelson lost an open Senate seat to first time candidate Chuck Hagel in a landslide.

Same goes with House candidates seeking Senate seats. 45% of NH voters are independents (highest in the nation). NH just recently became a blue state but don't think they won't turn around and elect a republican if Obama is unpopular. There are countless numbers of incumbent congressman who lost Senate races (particularly in 1994) that many thought they'd have no difficulty winning in the previous year.

My general view in politics is hope for the best, plan for the worst and fight each race like its your last. It makes a better candidate all round.  

[ Parent ]
NH
Didnt the Republicans pick up many lost seats in the state legislature last year? True their state legislature is freakin huge but still. And I imagine the GOP has a good GOTV machine. It was a GOP-leaning state really up until the last few years. And its a small state where its not so hard to mobilize. And they were able to bring Sununnu to victory despite a bitter primary against a sitting senator.
[ Parent ]
The GOP
gained six seats in the NH state house in 2008 (in a house of 400) and none in the state senate.
[ Parent ]
Just 6
Wow I guess not many afterall. Guess I remembered wrong.  
[ Parent ]
Actually, closer to 14
The 2006 election resulted in a 239-161 margin for the Dems, but by the time of the 2008 election, it was 231-158 with 11 vacancies (as happens with their huge legislature that basically doesn't compensate its members -- sometimes people resign because they can't do the job, and sometimes they don't even show up). The 2008 election resulted in a 225-175 margin for the Dems. Still, not a bad majority.
[ Parent ]
Chill out
Seriously, this 2010 = 1994 handwringing is bordering on inane. First off, don't necessarily presume that Obama will be that unpopular. Clinton got himself into trouble because his immaturity and his lousy handling of the health care legislation. The tax increase and the assault weapons ban didn't help either. It's also worth noting that 1994 was the tipping point in the South's shift to Republicans at the congressional level. Many of the seats we lost were in fact in the South. Now, we don't have that problem.

As for some of the races you mentioned: Jay Nixon's race against Bond in 1998 came in the wake of a very unpopular AG decision that alienated blacks from Nixon and it was a very pro-incumbent year, and Crist's loss to Bob Graham happened LONG before he became AG.

While MO will be difficult, I think NH should be less of a problem. First of all, the NH GOP has almost no bench whatsoever. Secondly, while there may be a lot of indies in NH, I'm willing to bet most of them do have strong leanings one way or the other.

As for the GOP circa 1992, they only lost because of Perot, and their leadership in both houses was way smarter than they are now. Secondly, they were still fairly unified. Now, not so much.

Will we lose some house seats? Probably. But with the way things are going in the senate, the GOP is sinking fast.

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't be so sure about that.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)
[ Parent ]
His supporters are more devoted?
Well, off the netroots anyway...been to OpenLeft lately? They're ready to impeach him over there.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Well to be honest
At OpenLeft if your a Dem that does not fit the mold of Dennis Kucinich. Stoller, Bowers and Sirota will not hestitate to throw you in the political gulag. Same goes with Glenn Greenwald over at Salon, it is what it is. Thankfully Talking Points Memo is still in support of the President and Kos is mixed. Plus not every person who voted for Obama is a card carrying member of the netroots so those people are still behind him.

Don't get me wrong i'm a supporter of the netroots. Kos has done alot of great work rasing money and getting support for other Dems, but they are a pain in the ass when it comes to idology and how there not hesitant to disown a Democrat if they don't pass the political litmus test of the left.

[ Parent ]
agreed entirely
Agree with entire statement.  Although I dont ever go to Openleft so I cant agree with those since I dont really know.

But the Kos stuff, yup yup yup.  Although, it is a fundamentally different site where they talk a lot more about issues and ideology, which is what opens the door to such leftist intolerance.  Here at SSP, it is about how the Dems are going to win, point blank period.  Hence why I love this site, :)  There seems to be a bigger common goal here than, well, just bitching.  (DK obviously does a lot more than just that and I love reading it everyday, but ya know, sometimes ::Slaps forehead::)

[ Parent ]
That's why I really enjoy this site too.
I got fed up with some of the far-left posters on Kos, and I am much more a numbers person, and SSP looks more open to number-crunching.

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)
[ Parent ]
The numbers are meaningless if they don't accomplish anything
Look at 1992-94 when the democrats had complete control of government, and we didn't get the promised universal healthcare, but the democrats actually pushed for a terrible thing like NAFTA. This site shouldn't just be about the democrats winning, but also about getting the best democrats possible elected.  
[ Parent ]
First off
I'm not going into the differences between the type of Democrats that ran Congress during the first two years of the Clinton Administration to the type of Democrats running Congress during the Obama Administration because that topic have been discussed many times before and it's talked out.

Second this site is dedicated to getting Democrats elected because you can't change policy if you don't get elected. But this site and the people the regularly post here do have a preference of getting progressive Democrats elected most of the time and getting Blue Dogs elected when they have to. This is not a site for purists, but a site to have a open and free conversation on all types of Democrats whatever their liberal, moderate or conservative.

[ Parent ]
Glad to know I'm not the only one
I respect Markos for what he has done, but man, do some of the people on his site annoy me. Having never liked Bowers or Stoller, I've steered clear of OpenLeft.
[ Parent ]
Serves a Purpose
I'm pretty center-left in my politics and passionately moderate in style.  So, Obama is pretty much an ideal candidate for me.  I think Open Left and to a lesser degree Greenwald and Kos can be too politically correct and too strident at times.  But, they serve a purpose.  I like the saying that the squeaky wheel gets the grease and think it's important for the left to sometimes publicly push Obama to the left to counteract the pull he's getting from the right.  Politically, I suspect it's generally good for Obama to have at least a few people on the left angry at him, as long as we can put differences aside and pull together come election time.
[ Parent ]
Democrats have a habit
of not putting aside differences when election time comes around, see 2000.

Maybe they will now after Bush, they certainly did in 2008, but many of Obama supporters on those sites saw him as something he wasn't.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Agreed, this is a very good day for the DSCC!
I hope Katrina Swett doesn't run for the Senate in NH, though I am not sure what to think about Shea-Porter. I really like her, would want her to be Senator, but would not want to lose her in the House either...

Campaign Diaries

Where is Swett from?
NH-1 or NH-2?  If NH-2, then she can just run for Hodes seat, or that one dairy yogurt farms guy, too.

Or who was the one guy who was mayor of some town and was the favorite for the primary until Shaheen entered?  Would certainly prefer him over Swett in NH-2 but I have a feeling he is from NH-1.

[ Parent ]
Marchand
Yeah, he is.
[ Parent ]
Mayor of Portsmouth
right?  (Finally found a city on the map that sounded right)
[ Parent ]
I hope katrina swett does run for senate
That way we can keep her out of the US House and US Senate.  
[ Parent ]
1 Hodes 2 Carnahan
Next!

Is Cooper interested in NC?  And will anyone but Mongiardo run in KY?

Hope for Crit
I'm really looking forward to seeing if Crit Luallen takes a sniff in Kentucky.  She would be formidable if she decided it was the right time.  Chandler would be even stronger, but I like having some House presence outside Louisville.
[ Parent ]
"Crit Luallen"
You know you're in the south when...
[ Parent ]
I'd go by Crit too...
If this was my legal name: Eugenia Crittenden Blackburn Luallen (per wikipedia).
[ Parent ]
Woh
I haven't heard any peep out of Chandler about the race.  It seems to all be focusing on Mongiardo, wasn't this seat basically Chandler's?
[ Parent ]
If he wants it
It's his for the taking if that's what he wants, but like you said, I haven't heard a thing from him about it.
[ Parent ]
If Chandler does run
From what I understand, we actually have a pretty good bench in his district, the biggest name being none other than Crit Luallen--though I'd prefer her as a Senator as well.
[ Parent ]
BREAKING ON MSNBC
Newman confirms she will not seek re-election in 2010.

Rep. Hodes, prepare for your ascension!

Almost feel bad for Cornyn
There's literally nothing he can do to avoid another cycle of losses.  21 months out and already they're looking at likely losses in NH, MO, and KY.  OH and NC should soon follow.
I might
I might feel bad for Cornyn too . . . if he weren't such an ass.
[ Parent ]
On top of bad precedent
Usually midterms don't fare too well for the Presidential Party.  2006 (Dems +31 House, +5 Senate Dems), 2002 (House +8 Reps, +2 Senate Reps--redistricting and 9/11), 1998 (House +5 Reps, Senate +0).  Because of gains made in the House of Representatives, 2002 was the first time since 1934 that the out of Presidency party failed to gain congressional seats in a mid-term election, and the first time since 1822 that the party not in control of the White House had failed to gain seats in the mid-term election of a President's second term.
[ Parent ]
Last stat
Last stat meant 1998 not 2002
[ Parent ]
Noone
A team of the greatest political minds in history working for the RNSC couldn't prevent losses on their side in 2010.
[ Parent ]
MO-Sen, NH-Sen: Carnahan and Hodes Are Both In | 67 comments

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