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FL-Sen: Martinez May Bail Early, Crist Mulling a Run

by: James L.

Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 5:02 PM EST

Let's hope this doesn't happen:

In what could be a Sunshine State one-two punch, multiple Republican sources are confirming that Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) is giving serious consideration to running for Senate - and that Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.) is contemplating resigning from his seat before his term is up next year.
Martinez has already announced he will not run for re-election when his first term expires in 2010. Crist, according to sources, has had multiple serious conversations about running for Senate with both Martinez and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (Texas). [...]
Sources say most Republicans are waiting on the sidelines because they want to see what Crist does before jumping into the Senate race, and explain further that Sink could be eyeing an open gubernatorial seat in 2010, when Crist's first term is up.

Wow, okay. So are we to believe that Martinez will bail early and that Crist would appoint himself to the Senate? Martinez's people are staying mum for now, only saying that the Senator "looks forward to serving out the rest of his term" (hardly a lock-solid promise to stay), and then we have this from Florida GOP Chair Jim Greer:

"A self-appointment -- that's not Charlie Crist. He has far too much appreciation for the electorate to appoint himself to the Senate," said Greer.

Okay... but what about this scenario (again, from Roll Call):

Florida's lieutenant governor is a Republican and would appoint Martinez's successor if he and Crist both resign prematurely.

In other words, a self-appointment in all but name. Pretty skeezy, huh?

Of course, this is all speculative, and I hope that Kraushaar is onto something when his Florida GOP contacts tell him that the possibility of a Crist Senate bid is "remote". In any event, Greer says that Crist won't make a decision until the end of the state's legislative session in May -- at the earliest.

James L. :: FL-Sen: Martinez May Bail Early, Crist Mulling a Run

Tags: Charlie Crist, FL-Gov, FL-Sen, (All Tags)

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FL-Sen: Martinez May Bail Early, Crist Mulling a Run | 27 comments

Kottkamp is an empty suit

If he's elevated to Governor Alex Sink will run in 2010 andl ikely beat him.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 16:09:19 PM CST

by: you @ soon

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I'm OK with Crist Running

If Crist runs for Senate, then presumably Sink runs for Governor and is at least a 50-50 shot. Florida governor would give us a seat at the table in 2010 redistricting and we're very underrepresented in FL because of R gerrymandering, not to mention the many other advantages of having the governership. Seems like FL governor is at least as valuable as one FL senate seat.

by: sicembears @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 16:13:36 PM CST

by: you @ soon

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Exactly

With Meek and Gelber we aren't going to win that Senate seat regardless. And Kottkamp will likely be a very weak Governor, likely drawing a primary challenge. Alex Sink would almost certainly jump into the race if Crist is out.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 16:24:14 PM CST

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by: you @ soon

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thats very defeatist

it depends on who Republicans run, and what the national environment is. meek or gelber could win.

by: LeftistAddiction @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 17:16:16 PM CST

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by: you @ soon

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OT: Need help with PVI

I'm trying to determine the new PVIs of some congressional districts but having trouble with the exact mathematical formula for making the calculation. Anyone know the exact formula?

by: sicembears @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 16:15:18 PM CST

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Simple enough

Compare the result in a district in the 2004 election to the national results. Then do the same for the 2008 election. Then average the two, and you have the Cook PVI.

Wikipedia has Bush with a 2.4% margin over Kerry in 2004, and Obama with a 7.2% margin over McCain. So let's say that district AA-01 saw Kerry winning 53.2-45.6 in 2004, which is exactly 10 points better than he did nationally, and that in 2008 Obama won there 58.1-36.9, which is 14 points better than his national margin.

(10+14)/2=12, so that means that the district clocks in at D+12. Does that make sense?

by: Englishlefty @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 18:10:49 PM CST

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by: you @ soon

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Correction

I rather screwed up there. I was measuring the gap between the two candidates. I think I know how you should do it, but I'll shut up for now so that I don't make another mistake.

by: Englishlefty @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 20:55:53 PM CST

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by: you @ soon

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OK, try this

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

DGM provides a good summary, and DavidNYC makes a couple of corrections to this.

by: Englishlefty @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 21:04:44 PM CST

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Much Thanks!

by: sicembears @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 22:45:49 PM CST

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Seems I may have spoken too soon in the Kos poll thread

Cillizza is also on it.

http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

Personally, I don't get why Crist would do this. The reasons cited in the link seem tenuous at best. I would think governor is the better path to a succesful run for the presidency but maybe Obama has changed that equation.

by: conspiracy @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 16:35:27 PM CST

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I still think

The Governor's mansion is a better launching pad for a presidential run than the Senate. Obama is such a special candidate that I think using him as an example for any future candidates is an excercise in futility.

My opinion aside, I don't think its the fact that he'd be a senator which is why a 2012 run would be unlikely. John Thune, for example, could credibly run for President in 2012. But can Crist really run for senate and then 1-2 months later announce he's running for President?

by: safi @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 16:46:02 PM CST

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Crist could never be President

For obvious reasons. Hopefulyl he tries it though.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 16:50:50 PM CST

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Same as I thought

And the whole thing about term limits seems odd when the guy is barely half the way through his first term.

by: conspiracy @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 16:51:50 PM CST

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"The Governor's mansion is a better launching pad for a presidential run than the Senate."

Depends on the state. If you're in a state like Alaska, where your job entitles you to attend a parade, then no. If you're governor of a bigger state that actually matters, then yes.

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 17:20:03 PM CST

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Not necessarily

Texas and California are obviously big states. But Georgia is a middle sized state and Arkansas is a relatively small state.

by: safi @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 17:56:50 PM CST

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In all fairness to Palin...

Id say being Gov. of AK is a bigger deal than many lower 50 states with a much larger population. As AK is a huge energy state and thus pretty important. My concern with Palin being VP nominee wasnt that she was Gov. of AK but rather a 2 year Gov. It could have been Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, South Carolina, and some other states not named New York or California or Florida (and similar states whod be a big nation if they were independent) and Id have a problem with it.

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 23:51:24 PM CST

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maybe the best outcome?

Crist becoming a senator may be the 'best' outcome, all things considered.

Now, I don't consider myself an expert (or even that knowledgeable) about Florida politics, but I'll give my two cents anyway.

Crist is known as a moderate GOPer and is definitely among the most moderate GOP governors in the country (behind maybe the Governator and Northeasterners) and would continue that legacy in the Senate. There is no doubt he has Presidential ambitions (why else would he marry? lol kidding) and I tend to see a governor slot as more promising. In the Senate, he would be as moderate as 'allowed', but would be forced to choose between obstructionism (and kill his chances to be Pres. maybe) or be a deal maker along the lines of Collins, Specter, and my favorite, Snowe.

If he runs for Senate, and he will win if he does, we have a great chance at getting the governorship. With Meek and others already in the Senate race, Sink would be a give-in, assuming she wants it (which she clearly does since she gave up the chance to run for Senate). It would be her versus some unknown republican at this point (I honestly have no clue), but she is known to do well in the northern part of the state.

If he does not run, then I wish the best to Meek (most likely to win at this point), but I hope Mayor Iorio gets in to test her hand in bigger politics

by: aaronlev14 @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 16:45:43 PM CST

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Kottkamp is Lt. Gov.

He's unknown almost everywhere in the state and is more or less an empty suit from what I know of him. You can be assured that he wouldn't skate. He'd be guaranteed to get a strong primary challenger in 2010. My money is on Sink being the next Giovernor if that is the case.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 16:53:06 PM CST

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Is the LT. Gov. position a nothing office?

As I dont ever remember hearing anything about ex-Lt. Gov. Toni Jennings during her tenure. Despite her being a female Republican elected to major statewide office. Kind of a rarity...yet you never heard about her. And she basically disappeared into oblivion since 2007 when her tenure ended.

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 23:54:55 PM CST

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Nothing in FL...

Nothing in FL anyway. In TX, for example, Lt. Gov. is a pretty powerful position. And we all know who David Dewhurst is. Theres even a joke that the Lt. Gov. here is more powerful than the actual Gov.

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 23:56:14 PM CST

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Yes

It's a nothing position in Florida.

by: ChadInFL @ Tue Feb 03, 2009 at 07:03:01 AM CST

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Is Jeb Bush eligible to run for Governor in 2010?

I think the rule permits only 2 consecutive terms, with no limit on the number of lifetime terms. If this is correct, and if Bush is interested in being Governor again, it could explain why Crist is being mentioned for Senate now. It is difficult to imagine Republicans intentionally creating a tossup race for Governor right before redistricting.

by: DCal @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 17:42:19 PM CST

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Yes, he is

There is no lifetime term-limits, only consecutive. I'd still be surprised if he ran again for the office.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 17:47:43 PM CST

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this is a democrat's dream

if i ever did see one.

as i've lectured so often, when the very popular governor wendy anderson appointed himself senator (actually resigned and was appointed by Lieutenent Gov Perpich) in 1976 to replace walter mondale, it caused such revulsion that the electorate voted out both democratic senators and the governor in 1978 in MN. i pray that crist would be stupid enough to do that now.

and yes the governor's seat is much more valuable than the senate seat and we could get a heavyweight to run for governor.

and of course, meek could certainly win the senate seat as well in such a scenario.

i can't believe there could be a shred of truth in this.

by: st paul sage @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 22:21:15 PM CST

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I hope Crist Runs

That way, we have a shot at the governorship, which is worth probably 5 house seats or more from redistricting. And Crist isn't that bad. In the senate he'd probably vote with us on the environmental issues.

by: johnnythebandit @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 22:28:33 PM CST

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Not sure what all redistricting could do for the Dems

Other than perhaps where to put the 1 or 2 new seats and Bill Young's Tampa-area seat. Due to legal reasons I dont know if they can do much with Ros-Lehtinen & the Diaz-Balarts' districts. DeLay tried that here in TX we all saw how that worked out. It went to court and it got overturned. Maybe they can legally replace Cuban Americans with non-Cuban latinos (whom are more Dem) but I dont know about that.

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Feb 03, 2009 at 00:04:02 AM CST

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A more simple solution for Crist...

Just appoint a caretaker and run in a 2010 open election. A little bit sleezy still...since hed be sacrificing seniority for his own political gain...but its much better than appointing himself or having his Lt. Gov. do it. Maybe fellow Tampa-area Republican Bill Young would be willing. Though isnt he at the top of Appropriations? Thats hard to give up but the guy will be like 80 come Nov. 2010 anyway. I doubt he he wants to be around the House much longer and the Senate would be a good way to cap off a very, very long career.

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 23:45:42 PM CST

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FL-Sen: Martinez May Bail Early, Crist Mulling a Run | 27 comments