those are some mighty high undecided numbers

While I agree that the numbers are not a good sign for the Republicans, it is also more than a bit worrying that none of the Democrats even break 40% in a fundamentally Democratic state.

It seems to me  that after all of the political chaos in Illinois the electorate is rather unsettled. I'd be very cautious about proclaiming these as great numbers for us -- at most I'd consider it to be mildly encouraging. We should not be overconfident about this seat until we see the state dynamics evolve a lot more.

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by: terje @ Fri Jan 30, 2009 at 11:49:53 AM CST

I'm amazed that Burris's numbers are that good.

I'd have thought, with the saturation coverage of the Blago business, that he'd have a big hole to climb out of.  It's incredible that so many people still have no opinion of him.

If he's made it this far without significant damage, I would have to say that would be a big boost to his prospects if he wants to keep the seat; now that he's ensconced in the Senate, he can busy himself with defining himself to the people with no opinion.

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by: SC @ Fri Jan 30, 2009 at 12:04:27 PM CST

There's some good and bad

In these numbers. The good being that this is probably the low point for IL Dems and they still maintain a lead.

The bad is that those top-line numbers indicate that voters are willing to give the GOP candidates a listen. The head-to-head numbers are so similar that right now its basically generic D vs generic R. If someone like Mark Kirk can resonate, he could definitely pull this off.

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by: safi @ Fri Jan 30, 2009 at 12:10:28 PM CST

how is leading Kirk by 7, 'looking good' ???

Am I missing something?  Considering Kirk represents about 1/20th of the population, HIS numbers are great.

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by: vicupstate @ Fri Jan 30, 2009 at 12:13:52 PM CST

Maybe you haven't seen a newspaper in the last month.

Have you heard of a man named Blagojevich?

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Fri Jan 30, 2009 at 12:22:34 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Have you heard of Barack Obama....

.... did you know he was from Illinois?

Obviously, Blago aside, all the news isn't bad for Illinois Democrats these days.  Obama's good guy image counterweighs Blago's baggage for the party.    

Besides, Blago is so OUT THERE, that I don't think he taints Burris as much as you some might think. Blago seems like a loon that picked Burris to give certain elements the finger, not so much to reward a lackey.

Regardless, I see nothing particularly 'good' about these numbers.  Find another candidate to primary him. Even if Burris were to pull off the win, he has 'Carol Mosely Braun  II' written all over him.    

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by: vicupstate @ Fri Jan 30, 2009 at 16:19:29 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Image is everything

And what is the public's current image of Burris?  It's standing next to the guy as he (the most corrupt and despised Governor in the country) appoints him Senator after soliciting for bribes for the very same seat just weeks earlier.  Then the press conference for Burris turns into a circus when he's caught flatfooted and has no idea how much he donated to Blagovich in the past.  Sorry, but the taint of Blago picking him will never completely wear off.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Jan 30, 2009 at 16:46:49 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Seeing as there are a high number of undecided, that's good for Democrats in a state like Illinois

Unless the Democrats are really well known... which isn't the case.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Fri Jan 30, 2009 at 17:18:28 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Well, for starters

nearly 80% of the entire state's population has an opinion of Kirk (which is not only higher than Schakowsky or Giannoulias, but higher than Burris!). He isn't an unknown. I'd imagine that people in the Chicago media market, which is 2/3s of the state's population, were seeing Kirk ads all the time in the run-up to November.

So on the one hand, you have a well-known, well-regarded sane Republican who hasn't committed any firing offenses. And on the other hand, you have a guy who's a raving egomaniac who just eagerly accepted a tainted appointment from one of the most laughably corrupt figures in recent history, with no apparent regard for how that might reflect on his credibility. If you'd asked me to predict, I would have expected Kirk up by double digits at this point. I suppose being that far below the magic 50% mark isn't good... but otherwise, compared with what I'd expect, this does look good.

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by: Crisitunity @ Fri Jan 30, 2009 at 12:31:19 PM CST

[ Parent ]

2 house seat, too

Kirk holds a seat where Obama pulled in 61% of the vote.  We should win a vacant seat.  This is one of only six districts carried by Kerry that are represented by Republicans.  Other than dead man walking Joe Cao, this is about as Democratic as it gets (basically tied with Delaware but Castle is still seen as seeking re-election).  IL-6 is definitely winnable as well.

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by: David Kowalski @ Fri Jan 30, 2009 at 12:38:46 PM CST

Numbers

A Democrat not being able to get to 40% in Illinois... thats not good. I recognize that we SHOULD be in worse shape given whats happened, but I still wouldnt call these numbers "good."

Also, numbers this far out dont mean all that much. Kirk is a tremendous campaigner, so going into a head-to-head match up 7 against him is not a warm feeling. I mean, who thought Kirk would increase his margin of victory against Seals in a district Obama won over 60% in? Clearly the man has cross-over appeal, and those are soft negatives because it comes from other people in the Chicago area who recall the Seals attack ads. Obviously, the people who know him best in IL-10 have a much higher opinion of him.
Mostly, I would say that the Illinois landscape is very unsettled. Voters still dislike the GOP but arent happy with the Dems because of corruption. Its like they dont exactly know where to turn. It will be interesting to see who fills this leadership vacuum. But I can say this: we wont be filing IL-Sen under "safe" anytime soon.  

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by: AC4508 @ Fri Jan 30, 2009 at 13:05:48 PM CST

[ Parent ]

The news for Illinois Democrats cannot possibly get any worse than they have the past month

If this is our nadir, I think **knocks on wood** that we're looking at a Frank Lautenberg situation.

Still, best to get Burris primaried to avoid any problems along the way...

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by: JFM110 @ Fri Jan 30, 2009 at 14:48:05 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I'll predict now

Kirk doesnt get into this race.  He can win it this time but against generic D in 2016, he'll get annhilated.  He can hold onto his House seat for quite a deal longer but he'd probably be a one-termer in the Senate.  They haven't had a Republican serve more than one term since the 80's, and there was only one one-termer in that.  Illinois just simply isnt a state I'd ever go statewide in as a Republican, why bother?

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by: Andrew @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 15:22:44 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I don't care if Burris can win.

I still want him primaried out.

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by: duffman @ Fri Jan 30, 2009 at 14:19:52 PM CST

Party ID

I don't think this poll gives much info besides party ID and a little name recognition. If anyone had a big lead and they were over 50%, then that would be good news for them, but I certainly don't see this poll as good news for Illinois Dems. In fact, Kirk could even tout this poll as showing him within striking distance when his name ID isn't huge, and smaller than the D's, as well as the fact that Illinois is a Democratic state. I'm sure the pollsters don't let them know that Kirk is a moderate R, so many voters prob just think of him as a generic R.

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by: AJBrad @ Fri Jan 30, 2009 at 16:51:04 PM CST

NY-26 analogy

Roland Burris = Jack Davis
Jan Schakowsky = Alice Kryzan
Alexi Giannoulias = Jon Powers

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by: duffman @ Fri Jan 30, 2009 at 17:52:35 PM CST

If were doing NY-26 analogies

Who's supposed to be Chris Lee: Mark Kirk or Peter Roskam?

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by: bradley minoski @ Sat Jan 31, 2009 at 04:44:49 AM CST

[ Parent ]

we haven't gotten that far yet.

But so far this race has:
-an old crazy guy
-a woman who is most likely to get support from the political establishment
-a young guy with support from the netroots
I'm interested in seeing how well they play their parts.

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by: duffman @ Sat Jan 31, 2009 at 17:01:42 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I hope Schakowsky runs

And Giannoulias doesn't. I think a Schakowsky vs Burris primary would be our best chance of ousting him. I still hope he retires, but I don't think so and I'd love to add such a fantastic Senator like Jan Schakowsky.

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by: Populista @ Fri Jan 30, 2009 at 19:25:34 PM CST