I doubt that being the "netroots fave"

somehow catapults him into the lead in what is most likely a name recognition poll.  Quigley and Feigenholtz being the top two makes sense to me.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 21:03:19 PM CST

I doubt that, too! (eom)

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by: DavidNYC @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 22:39:23 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I bet Feigenholtz wins

but I've got friends working for her, Geoghegan and Quigley so I'm not really too passionate about the outcome.

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by: Populista @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 21:14:37 PM CST

Her website looks like a winner

Both she and Quigley look fine to me.

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by: andgarden @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 21:38:25 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Three-sided die

I'd need a three sided die in the voting booth, I think.  Feigenholtz, Quigley, and Geohegan (sp?) would all do progressives very proud.  It's nice to have an embarassment of riches.

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by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 21:58:09 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Organisation is going to matter

Anybody with an elected office has an advantage - they have a turnout organisation. Anybody with an elected office that isn't geographically congruent with anybody else's has a double advantage.

Geoghegan would be formidable in a normal primary, but unless he can add a full set of labour endorsements and a lot of paid ground staff to his assets, I don't see his wider fundraising chops as a determining factor.

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by: Englishlefty @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 22:05:34 PM CST

Depends on how relevant street money is

in this district. In an election like this, getting a door knocker can mean the difference between voting and not voting. Turning out the near-dead by providing transportation can matter too.

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by: andgarden @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 22:12:01 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I agree.

And I sense Feigenholtz has the strongest ground operation (sorry D)

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by: Populista @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 23:03:17 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Not to mention

She just recieved the endorsement of EMILY's List. Then again I don't know if that's a blessing or an insult given their track record of the candidates they endorse these days.

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by: bradley minoski @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 23:57:27 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Huh?

Who is Marting Luther King, Jr?

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Jan 19, 2009 at 00:06:02 AM CST

Fixed (eom)

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by: James L. @ Mon Jan 19, 2009 at 00:24:42 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Any polls done which do include Geoghegan?

Kos! We need an R2K poll of this race!

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by: homerun @ Mon Jan 19, 2009 at 01:46:07 AM CST

Are These All Democrats?

They probably are; I doubt the GOP would waste the time here.

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Mon Jan 19, 2009 at 06:36:59 AM CST

The last time I checked

Republicans weren't able to run in Democratic primaries -- unless they are closet cases.

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by: James L. @ Mon Jan 19, 2009 at 10:03:16 AM CST

[ Parent ]

If I had to guess, I'd say the Republicans will almost certainly field someone

As has been noted, this is the old district of Dan Rostenkowski, who was surprisingly beaten in 1994 by Republican Michael Patrick Flanagan due to (a) the incumbent's ethics issues and (b) a national GOP wave. Of course, in this otherwise solidly blue district he lasted only one term before being ousted by... Democrat Rod Blagojevich.

Surely the symbolism isn't escaping them, especially in light of Anh Cao's victory.

On top of that, they must have learned something from the drubbing they took in the special elections during the '06-'08 cycle.  Case in point: Brian Moran's seat in the Virginia House of Delegates.

http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

After he abruptly resigned to concentrate on his gubernatorial bid, Alexandria Democrats were caught off guard - they got bogged down in a fractious primary, and more or less took for granted that the district would vote according its normal partisan makeup (it went 75% for Obama). Lo and behold, in the end, Democrat Charniele Herring beat Republican Joe Murray... by all of 16 votes. Now the GOP majority in the House is refusing to seat her pending a recount, which could drag this out for at least another week.  The total turnout was a little over 2,000 votes, or around 6%.

Point being, we CANNOT make the same mistake they did by taking these kinds of seats as gimmes, especially now that we're newly in the majority and they have the advantages of being the opposition.

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by: JFM110 @ Mon Jan 19, 2009 at 13:13:56 PM CST

[ Parent ]

True

Though Rostenkowski would have lost in most years. And federal races are very different to local contests. Nevertheless obviously important to watch the back door.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Jan 19, 2009 at 15:09:15 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Questions

1.  Is it first past the post or is there a later runoff if no one topes 50%?

2.  I assume Rahm has not endorsed anyone; will he do so?  If not officially, will he give a wink and a nudge to his supporters?  Any idea who he favors?

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by: sicembears @ Mon Jan 19, 2009 at 10:34:31 AM CST

Runoffs are pretty rare outside of the south

And yes, there's a reason for that.  

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by: andgarden @ Mon Jan 19, 2009 at 11:22:11 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Well

I believe the Hatch Act prohibits him from doing so tomorow. So unless he sneaks an endorsement in today I doubt he will. Only way he could have really influenced the process was getting the party to endorse a favored candidate and that failed.

And first past the post which is why I think Feigenholtz will win. She's been an elected official for 16 years so she has a sizable base to start with and as the only female candidate I suspect she will do well with the women's vote.  

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by: Populista @ Mon Jan 19, 2009 at 12:37:14 PM CST

[ Parent ]

The moderates

I wonder who the moderates are in the primary. If the liberals split the vote i could see a moderate getting through. I know theres a significant working class Catholic vote in this district. But I would venture to guess theyd receive a good primary in 2010 should they go on to win the GE (which is a 99% certainty. Jefferson's loss showed us it cant be 100% but cmon lets be realistic).

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Mon Jan 19, 2009 at 12:25:22 PM CST