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NJ-Gov: Christie Has Narrow Lead

by: DavidNYC

Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 2:17 PM EST

Rasmussen (1/13, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 40
Chris Christie (R): 42
Other: 5
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4%)

I remain convinced that this race is not like the last however many statewide races in New Jersey, where a not especially well-liked Dem beat a much less likable Republican. Perhaps Corzine can be saved by his money and Obama and Biden campaigning for him. Perhaps.

And maybe Christie will sputter once he hits the trail in earnest - this is his first real run for office, apart from an election some years ago as a Morris County freeholder. (A "freeholder" is New Jersey's term for a county legislator.) Then again, Christie Whitman's entire elective experience before beating Jim Florio in 1993? Somerset County freeholder.

UPDATE: Another poll, this one from Monmouth University (1/12-14, registered voters, no trendlines):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 38
Chris Christie (R): 36
Jon Corzine (D-inc): 45
Steve Lonegan (R): 29
Jon Corzine (D-inc): 41
Rick Merkt (R): 27
Jon Corzine (D-inc): 44
Brian Levine (R): 27
(MoE: ±4.8%)

Levine (whom we did not canvass in our look at FDU's recent poll) is the supposedly moderate Republican mayor of Franklin Twp., a largely Democratic township of about 50,000 people in wealthy Somserset County, located in north-central Jersey. I don't believe Levine has formally declared yet, but he has formed an exploratory committee.

DavidNYC :: NJ-Gov: Christie Has Narrow Lead

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NJ-Gov: Christie Has Narrow Lead | 18 comments

I'm not worried

Didn't Rasmussen also have Lautenberg tied with Dick Zimmer?

by: fatcathobbes @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 14:00:43 PM CST

by: you @ soon

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http://www.pollster.com/polls/...

by: DavidNYC @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 14:18:49 PM CST

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Rasmussen

Rasmussen did have Zimmer only down one.

by: Sean Fitzpatrick @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 15:48:59 PM CST

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by: you @ soon

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Yes, once

In June. Almost certainly an outlier, as Zimmer was never that close again. Their final poll showed Lautenberg up by 14. Lautenberg won by... 14.

by: DavidNYC @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 16:03:41 PM CST

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Predicted Final Result

Corzine - 54
Christie - 46

Hopefully the Republican party wastes untold millions on New Jersey as they usually do.

by: ChadInFL @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 14:23:08 PM CST

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Christie Todd Whitman was somebody's daughter right?

The Todd stands for some prior governor?

Hm, Wikipedia doesn't mention a prior governor and only says that the Todds, Schleys, and Whitmans (father's, mother's, and husband's names respectively) were all pretty political. There's a governor of New York a few generations back on the Whitman side. Does anyone know anything more?

Anyway, my point was supposed to be that if your name is something like Shelley Moore Capito or Beau Biden, the previous office you held is not really what people are evaluating you on when they elect you to office. So just because Christie Todd Whitman can get elected with no experience beyond freeholder doesn't necessarily mean some other guy can.

Why exactly is Corzine in such hot water? That's a really unfortunate thing to force yourself to accept. Even Stoller likes Corzine.

by: texas dem @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 14:24:31 PM CST

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Sure, but not for politics

Stoller likes Corzine because he applied for Goldman Sachs back when Corzine ran it and because he hired him as a consultant a few years back. It's a personal thing, not a political one.

by: Englishlefty @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 16:53:52 PM CST

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Why is Corzine unpopular?

Let me count the ways...

Doubling the state budget
Raising taxes and fees
Raised tools on Parkway and Turnpike and tried to monetize them
COAH regulations
Failure to make tough decisions on the budget while he waits for Obama bailouts

The guy's been a disaster for New Jersey. In fact the entire Democratic Party is destroying NJ.

By the way, there's a very strong chance Christie doesn't even win this nomination. Lonegan has a million bucks already and an army of very motivated people with him.

by: MikeGSP @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 14:42:42 PM CST

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Democratic Party destroying New Jersey?

They ain't seen nothing yet if they elect a republican to run the state. In the end New Jersey will still act like New Jersey, claiming to despise their Democratic officials, then re-electing them handily.

by: ChadInFL @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 15:08:50 PM CST

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Yeah, no kidding

Bush showed everyone what Republicans would do. They would double the spending one way or another, (Bush managed to double the debt in eight years) The difference is, instead they wouldn't raise taxes so people like me, who have a good 40 years + left of my life to live can pick up the tab for my parents and grandparents.

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 15:11:51 PM CST

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Then you won't like...

the near trillion dollar stimulus. Its all going to the debt.

by: land-o-lincoln @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 22:26:57 PM CST

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Sounds like somebody...

Isn't aware of Obama's magical powers.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Jan 19, 2009 at 02:20:22 AM CST

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New Jersey may be the most negative state in the US

I don't know if New Jersey has ever embraced a statewide politician.

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 16:05:56 PM CST

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Woodrow Wilson?

Maybe?

by: trowaman @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 16:08:36 PM CST

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I thought about Wilson

But in 1912, Wilson only won 41.6% in NJ (won the state due to Taft and Teddy Roosevelt running). In 1916, ole Woodrow lost New Jersey to Hughes.

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 16:13:04 PM CST

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Got to be a Frelinghuysen

I checked out Robert Meyner but after two successful terms as Governor he lost a comeback bid 8 years later. That got me to thinking about George McClellan but the little General who was elected Governor 14 years after he lost a run for President was blocked for a cabinet post by Jersey Democrats after his term.

And that leads to the Frelinghuysens. The family has played a prominent role in Jersey politics dating back to the Continental Congress and running through to current congressman Rodney. They've never been Democrats but have been elected as Federalists, Whigs and Republicans. The two most successful appear to be Frederick and Theodore both in the 1800s. Theodore was Senator a couple of times and US Secretary of State. Frederick was Senator, Mayor of Newark, Secretary of the Tresury and the Whig candidate for Vice President in 1844.

New Jersey has never quite had a complete President. Grover Cleveland was born there and was elected from New York. Wilson was born in Virginia and elected from Jersey. Garfield died at the Jersey shore while President. Nixon retired there. LBJ was nominated there and was furious his convention was held at a rundown Atlantic City, so furious that he refused to stay there and commuted from DC.

Hey, I'm from Jersey and after decades away returned here. I always say that some of the smartest people around chose to live in Jersey. And it's true. Edison moved here. Wilson moved here. Einstein moved here. Even Nixon who was sick and twisted but smart moved here.

So we produce actors, singers, entertainers, scientists and attract more of the same. Lots of people at least have lived here for a while. The first real baseball game was played here (Hoboken, 1847) and the first football game. But love our politicians. Nope. Maybe it's no accident that the duel between two famous politicians , Hamilton and Burr, occurred here and one of the politicians died and the other's political career died.

by: David Kowalski @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 22:39:11 PM CST

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seriously?

"They ain't seen nothing yet if they elect a republican to run the state." If that is supposed to be a rallying cry, then Corzine is screwed. The GOP tried something similiar in 06' and 08'. Didn't work too well, did it?

by: land-o-lincoln @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 22:32:18 PM CST

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will we be seeing a bruising Repub primary?

By the way, there's a very strong chance Christie doesn't even win this nomination. Lonegan has a million bucks already and an army of very motivated people with him.

A battered and financially depleted Republican nominee would be helpful.
And possibly to win the nominarion they might also push each other so far right that they give Corzine material he can use in the general election.

by: homerun @ Sun Jan 18, 2009 at 15:49:38 PM CST

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NJ-Gov: Christie Has Narrow Lead | 18 comments