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S-CHIP Crumb-Bum Roll Call, 2009 Edition

by: DavidNYC

Thu Jan 15, 2009 at 11:00 AM EST


As you may know, the House just passed (once again) an expansion to S-CHIP which will, of course, be signed by incoming President Obama after two vetoes from George Bush. In 2007, SSP made a hobby of keeping a hairy eyeball on the twisted reptiles who voted against providing healthcare to children, sure that it would make a potent election issue (apart from the obvious wrongness of the vote). So now we're here to revisit our Crumb-Bum Roll Call.

First, a little update. Six members of Congress have taken themselves off the crumb-bum rolls, including one Democrat:

Diaz-Balart, Lincoln (FL-21)
Diaz-Balart, Mario (FL-25)
Frelinghuysen, Rodney (NJ-11)
McCotter, Thaddeus (MI-11)
Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana (FL-18)
Taylor, Gene (MS-04)

Don't know what caused Taylor's change of heart (or Frelinghuysen's), but clearly the Diaz-Balarts & IRL are hoping to ward off tough challeneges in the future, as they had in 2008. Goes to show you that even a losing effort can have a real impact.

Thad McCotter, meanwhile, won by just six points in a totally unheralded race. Smart move on his part - but some of his similarly-situated colleagues (eg, Ken Calvert, Dan Lungren, Judy Biggert) still have their heads deep in the wingnut sand. Quelle surprise.

On the flipside, two Republicans decided to join their crumb-bum-alicious brethren and switch from "yes" to "no":

Latham, Tom (IA-04)
McMorris Rodgers, Cathy (WA-05)

I'd really love to see what their explanations are.

Anyhow, probably the most important detail here is that eleven GOPers who voted against S-CHIP in the 110th Congress are now looking for other work:

Chabot, Steve (OH-01)
Drake, Thelma (VA-02)
Feeney, Tom (FL-24)
Goode, Virgil (VA-05)
Hayes, Robin (NC-08)
Keller, Ric (FL-08)
Knollenberg, Joe (MI-09)
Kuhl, Randy (NY-29)
Musgrave, Marilyn (CO-04)
Sali, Bill (ID-01)
Walberg, Tim (MI-07)

Meanwhile, three Republicans couldn't save themselves even with S-CHIP "ayes":

English, Phil (PA-03)
Porter, Jon (NV-03)
Shays, Chris (CT-04)

Indeed, every freshman Democrat except for Bobby Bright (sheesh) voted for the bill. (The only other Dem holdout was Jim Marshall. Enough already.) A number of freshman Republicans voted yes as well:

Austria, Steve (OH-07)
Cao, Joseph (LA-02)
Lance, Leonard (NJ-07)
Lee, Chris (NY-26)
Paulsen, Erik (MN-03)
Thompson, Glenn (PA-05)

Cao we know about. Lance, Paulsen and to some extent Lee are in competitive districts. I'm not sure what explains Thompson's or Austria's votes, though.

In any event, the good news is two-fold: This expansion of S-CHIP will finally be signed into law, and plenty of GOPers are still fool enough to vote against extremely popular legislation that helped do in a number of their caucus-mates. I'm really liking 2009 so far.
DavidNYC :: S-CHIP Crumb-Bum Roll Call, 2009 Edition
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S-CHIP Crumb-Bum Roll Call, 2009 Edition | 109 comments
About Bobby Bright
That guy pretty much ran like a conservative Republican in his district, the only difference was he had a D next to his name. Oh well, if we can keep that district blue next cycle, it's a small price to pay to keep guys like him around.

As for why freshman Republicans we are not vulnerable next time and who voted for the S-CHIP expansion, it kind of goes back to that notion that no matter your partisan ideology, there are some things that transcend partisan divides and brings people together. Since this site is dedicated to partisanship, I understand why it's hard for you to wrap your head around such an idea.

Sigh
This is SSP. When someone says "they don't see a reason for X to switch his vote," that means electoral reason. Obviously people can have changes of heart that transcend politics because they start believing in the right things. This is not a hard concept to grasp, nor is it alien even to us "hyper-partisans."

But: a) those philosophical or emotional shifts are not our primary concern here at SSP, and b) without more, discussion of these shifts is just speculation. McCotter's six-point scare, on the other hand, is a fact.

I trust that we can all wrap our heads around that.

[ Parent ]
Bright Votes No, Mike Rogers yes
[ Parent ]
I really don't care if Bright wins or loses now
The guy has already voted against pay fairness and children's health.  And he'll still be vulnerable in 2010.  High cost, low reward.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
You'd Rather the Republicans Add to Their Majority?
Show me a better Democrat who can win that district and maybe I'd agree. But a vote for the Pelosi team over the Boehner team is no small matter. After all, we need her to keep her majority to control the floor.
[ Parent ]
Add to their MAJORITY?
Your argument holds much stronger weight when there is a precipice; i.e. the Democrats have a very good chance of losing the majority. Right now, that's unlikely (though I realize this is completely speculative atm), and Bright has already voted against two easy and popular positions, not just with Democrats but also the general public.

The better question we should be asking is: Would the money we could use to save Bobby Bright in 2010 be better spent protecting incumbents or adding candidates to our majority who actually support the Democratic agenda.

I'm willing to lose Bright if it means we fund better campaigns against R's in bluer districts.

[ Parent ]
ZZZZZ
Guess what.  Bright is gearing up to run on the economy in 2010, no matter what shape it is in.  He has to look at a bill and say, "Worth it?  Or waste of money?  How will my district see this?"  It would also help if you kept your pants on and waited more than two days and two votes to start throwing away Democrats.  If he votes with Republicans all year, he'll get primaried.  It's that simple.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah, but it's shitty AND dumb
If Republicans run against SCHIP, even in this district, it will backfire. This is a ridiculously popular program.

So Bright just screwed over working women and poor people with kids, for pretty much no electoral benefit.

I can deal with reps who aren't too bright. I can deal with reps who are cruel for political gain. But stupid and cruel is just not worth the bother, and if Bright carries on as he is, he's going to get a lot of activist disdain. And then if the corporate money dries up and there's a good Republican year, he's gone.

[ Parent ]
How did he screw over working women and poor people with kids?
The bill passed anyway, didn't it?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Some districts
just don't really have Democratic values.

Replace him and defeat a Republican in South Florida, Pennsylvania, California or wherever we can go where our guy can vote for stuff like this.

The problem with Bright is that even as a Democrat, he can't vote with us, the district won't let him.

Let the district go.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
I don't buy that
I don't think Bright would have compromised his reelection by voting for SCHIP or equal pay.  Even in that district.  Outside of wealthy economically conservative Repub suburban districts, SCHIP is not a loser anywhere.
[ Parent ]
No
but taxes on cigarettes are, which is what I think the problem was with Bright.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Ok that makes more sense
although it is curious that no conservative Democrat from North Carolina or Kentucky voted against it.
[ Parent ]
They did in 2007
Remember that Mike McIntyre and Bob Etheridge were no votes on the original SCHIP and had to be pushed to vote to override the veto.

There's a chance, I think, that we could push Bright into voting on things like this, but we didn't.

Remember had Bush signed SCHIP in 2007, McIntyre, Etheridge, Baron Hill, etc, would have gone down as opposing it. They voted for it this time.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
RE: SCHIP vote
Maybe as our very own Carville fan noted, Bright will vote more Democratic when he feels more entrenched.

I am not from there, and I do not pretend to comprehend a race like his.  However, the larger the majority we have, the more Republicans will become convinced that they are going to be in the minority for quite some time.  This helps both bring on more retirements and stave off better candidates, both opening up seats for us, and giving our more vulnerable members some breathing room before getting entrenched themselves.

Every member of our caucus is another reason for discouragement for some of those Republican members holding on to seats that should have flipped long ago that they are never going to be in the majority again.

That is what we want to drive home to the Castles of the house: you are doomed to forever be in the minority, so you might as well retire, give up your Democratic-leaning seats, and live off your fat pensions.

[ Parent ]
A vote for Pelosi?
Woo hoo.  Money is finite.  Defending Bright (and Marshall), who habitually vote like Republicans, who represent Republican districts, who are vulnerable to redistricting, takes away resources that could be used elsewhere.  I would rather spend that money defending Periello or Shea-Porter or Kagen or taking seats like Gerlach's or Castle's or McCotter's, all of which can sustain a more liberal member.

Not to mention, Bright is a candidate for party switching at some point.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Well Tell that to
Gene Taylor and Bud Cramer who refused to switch parties over the years.

Give Bright some time to get adjusted to his seat. It was attitudes like this that helped the Republicans win in 1994.  

[ Parent ]
No, you know what didn't help
in 1994? Dick Shelby trash talking Bill Clinton before he switched parties.  
[ Parent ]
Well Bright
starts trash talking Obama, then I'll get very concerned.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
That's where I draw the line
That's where I draw the line.  I don't care if a Democrat from a ruby red district doesn't vote the way I'd want on most issues because I know he or she will be much more supportive of the issues I favor than the alternative (not to mention advancing those issues by helping us organize the house and control the agenda).  If they start trashing other Democrats, especially the leader of the party, then I'm fine with cutting them loose.  Loyal, conservative Democrats, like Chet Edwards need to be not just tolerated, but welcomed within the party if we ever hope to compete in conservative districts.  I'll wait and see if Parker is more like a Edwards or a Shelby before I'm ready to push him away.
[ Parent ]
Ooop
Meant Bright, of course, not Parker.

Any chance to ever get an editing function?

[ Parent ]
RE: Bright
Exactly!  If Bright is supportive of his fellow Democrats, he should stay where he is.

I don't expect Bernie Sanders everywhere, but I expect them to be supportive of their teammates.

The Liebermanns are the ones that deserve to be kicked out, even though that vile little thing in Connecticut is less conservative than our more loyal Southern members.

[ Parent ]
Comment
If he's not willing to vote for children's healthcare and pay fairness, then I don't see how much adjustment he can make.  Either he's so damn cowardly that he won't even vote for popular bill because he might get called a liberal or his district is so whacked that he can't.  Either way, it's a waste of money.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Yes I'd prefer a Repub to Bright
Bobby Bright adds nothing to our majority, always votes with Repubs, and has the potential of giving Repubs talking points by claiming that their opposition to Obama's policies is bipartisan (mentioning that Bright also opposed them.)  And if the House is actually close, Bright will switch parties.

The Repub would have only voted against us.  We wasted money and time trying to win this seat.  

[ Parent ]
Gawd dangit.
I've had it with this **********ing hand-wringing on this **********ing blog!!!

Seriously.  Bright has been in Congress for how long?  About a week and a half?  That's like flipping a coin three times, getting three tails, and deeming it biased!  You've scarcely given the guy a moment.

And as people have pointed out, if anything, he's being a smart politician, and brandishing his conservative credentials to solidify his hold a ruby-red seat--and it's not like we needed his vote to pass it (and I'm sure Pelosi is fully aware of this).  So if we're talking about the long term, I can even add that people like John Warner, Chuck Hagel, and Robert Byrd get to pretty much what they want due to their star power, and here you have a freshman Representative working on building it from day one, by making moves to aid his re-election, if you're arguing on this aspect.

And it's always a good thing for our party to expand into our opponents' base.  Even if a Democrat and a Republican were purely identical in their voting patterns, I would rather have the Democrat holding the seat, because it (from a strategic standpoint) prevents the Republicans from having a stranglehold on a blood-red hyper-conservative district, and that in turn makes the Democratic Party more viable, which in turn makes our goals more achievable.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
From what I heard
the only reasons why Bright ran as a Democrat was to be in the majority and not to have to go through a primary.  If/when the Repubs get back in the majority, he will switch parties.

Bright took 10K from the UAW and publicly opposed the auto bailout, bashed the unions, and then denied that he ever took the campaign money.  What an asshole!  Not the kind of Democrat we need, even from that district.  

[ Parent ]
Maybe
but he WAS the Democratic mayor of Montgomery, so it wasn't like he he was a non-partisan looking to pick a party.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
He ran as a Democrat against the Repub mayor
because he could count on a solid black vote against Emory Folmar, who was a racebaiter.  Also Montgomery was becoming more black and Democratic (Gore, Kerry, and Obama have all carried the city by increasing margins.)

But he is an old Dixiecrat, most of whom have switched to Republican a while back.  Bright could have run in the Repub primary, but he would be in the minority, and it is also possible that his policies as mayor of a Democratic cities may have been too moderate for the hard right Repubs.

But someone else on this thread said that he proudly stated that he voted for Huckabee in the primary.

[ Parent ]
Actually, not quite
Mayoral races in Montgomery are non-partisan, though everyone considered him a Democrat (his wife, if I'm not mistaken, is a District Judge who has been elected several times as a Democrat) and Dem-affiliated groups and elected officials (including Ron Sparks) helped him out in his re-election campaign last year.
[ Parent ]
Amen
Just silly to go pissing on endangered, freshman in ruby-red districts over a few votes in week one that we didn't even need to win.  Silly purity trolls.
[ Parent ]
Purity
Yeah, I like Democrats who vote like Democrats once in a while. When's this guy going to vote like a Democrat? Not on economic, labor, or welfare issues, as he's demonstrated these two weeks. Nor on social issues, I'm sure... What does that leave?
[ Parent ]
"What does that leave? "
Another 1 year, 11 months, and 2 weeks.

Guys like Edwards, Taylor, Boren, etc., on every liberal-progressive scale I've ever seen, vote FAR more liberal/progressive than Republican congressmen in similarly conservative districts.  If Bright is voting similar to Republican congressmen from districts with similar PVIs, then you'll have an argument whether he's worth supporting.  I'll be shocked if that's the case.

[ Parent ]
If's he too cowardly to vote with us on these
How will he be helpful when we need the votes?

Right now the House is doing votes on issues where we have 70-80% support. This isn't EFCA we're talking about.

It's not that Bright is utterly worthless, it that he has very little worth (expands our majorities a little) and a lot of cost (expensive to elect and keep re-electing, liable to give Republicans cover).

And we could spend the millions his election cost (and his re-election and probably the next three close ones will cost similar) and sink that in to a much less conservative district where we wouldn't have to excuse so many of his stances.

[ Parent ]
No Bright is utterly worthless
One could argue that because he gives Repubs cover, he is actually a net detriment to the Dems and it would be better if a Repub took that seat.
[ Parent ]
Assuming of course
Bright has tough reelections. He could become a Gene Taylor. We never have to spend a dime on him and he's in one of the most Republican districts held by a Democrat.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Taylor's been around for years
Bright will have to get entrenched first to get to that state, and that might not be a quick process.
[ Parent ]
Yup.
If he were free, I'd take him. But the opportunity cost was just to severe.  
[ Parent ]
Okay, why the hell are we arguing over this already?
Relax, take a break, everyone.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
In other news...
My Mystery Hunt team solved its first metapuzzle in this year's hunt!

Here's to hoping we solve two next year!

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
And how do you know he's a party-switcher?
He's got a neighbor named Gene Taylor.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Some Repubs wanted him to run
as a Repub. The only reasons why he did not was because the Dems held the majority and that he wouldn't have to go through a primary.

There is not a single major issue that he sides with the Dems.  Not a single one.

[ Parent ]
What is his record like, as mayor of Montgomery?


Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
He had a good track record
He was respinsible for revitalizing the downtown area, brought jobs into the city be getting Hyundai to open a plant there and helped bring AA baseball to Montgomery.
[ Parent ]
I think these two ads summed him up
He pretty much calls it out, he's not going to do what the dems want.


[ Parent ]
I don't quite see what's wrong with these ads
The only thing I can think people here might find objectionable in the first ad is showing Sen. Boxer's name, while not showing whoever was the other person.

As for the second, I agree with him that it's a U.S. Representative's job first and foremost to represent his/her constituents.  What's so objectionable about that?

Now, if his constituents are a bunch of wingnuts, like some of these comments imply, then perhaps he, as someone who can see above the trees, ought to do what's right for his constituents even if it's not right by his constituents (things such as economically populist policies to help revitalize a slumping economy).

Now, someone else did mention Bright's support of Huckabee.  Now, Huckabee never made it out of the primary, and I suppose Bright intelligently kept his mouth shut both Obama and McCain as his district voted for McCain (correct me if I'm wrong), but I'm kinda curious about that one.  If Huckabee made it out of the primary and Bright supported Huckabee for president above our candidate, that would be an issue...but given events as they have happened, I guess we'll never know.

(Though, I do think it's perfectly legitimate for a person to endorse a candidate in each election, where each primary election counts as a separate election.  Who did I endorse?  Richardson in the Democratic primary, and McCain in the Republican primary, with my belief that McCain would do the least crap with the country if elected.  Alternatively, Mitt Romney, for making it easiest to beat the Republican nominee, because his religion would get a bunch of wingnuts to hate him.  Or maybe Giuliani for not being conservative enough.)

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
I too was a Richardson supporter in the primary.


Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)
[ Parent ]
If his district is that bad
Then I say cut our losses and let it go.  You're not going to get much useful out of its representative.  The representative is a suspect for party switching at some point to save his/her skin.  And you're going to spend massive amounts of money for a low reward.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Agree
Nothing in those ads that make me question whether Bright should be supported by the party.  I suspect just about every Democrat in a conservative district says he's not a party yes-man and that he'll put his constituents' interests above party politics.  Sheesh, sometimes I think people would rather enforce their version of political correctness and lose elections, be a minority party, and get nothing accomplished than actually change things.  That's the path Republicans seem to be going down currently.
[ Parent ]
great track record
he started spending money on education, low income housing, and created a program where people could get low interest loans for housing if they completed a finance course.  He revitalized downtown and spoke out against white flight.

You guys missed that Mike Rogers (AL) voted FOR SCHIP.  He had voted 5 times against it, not b/c of cig taxes but b/c he claimed it covered well-to-do kids (the most disingenuous reason).  Segall clearly scared him badly.  Here's hoping Segall runs again.  

[ Parent ]
Horrible disconnect there
Either Bright is wrong in his fear that led him to vote against it or Rogers is wrong in his fear that led him to vote for it.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Not to mention
On his campaign website he gushed about how he voted for Mike Huckabee in the Presidental Primary. Look I have always supported moderate to conservative Democrats because it's been to have a Dem that will vote with his party half of the time then a conservative wingnut that will vote with the Democrats zero percent of the time and obstruct important legislation. Although it's very early in the Congress (Christ, Obama hasn'r even taken office yet) i'm finally come to the conclusion that Bobby Bright is a dud in our caucus.

It's not worth having to defend him and pump tons of money into his campaign if he's never going to vote for a Democratic agenda and vote with the GOP more than 60 percent. I rather have the Democrats spend money on endangered incumbents like Carol Shea Porter, Tom Perriello and Kathy Dahlkemper and pick off district where a Democrat can actually vote like a Democrat (atleast half of the time) then support Bright. I know this seems harsh and all but I don't care. If he's not going to vote with us on the easy bills like S-CHIP and equal pay for women then whats going to happen when Obama takes office on the 20th when Congress will be dealing with more heavy legislation?  

[ Parent ]
Ok I really wish the Repub Jay Love
had won this year.  This guy is a cancer to party unity, and will likely be like Zell Miller.

On his campaign website he gushed about how he voted for Mike Huckabee in the Presidental Primary.

[ Parent ]
Calm down
The guy is 1 of 435 representatives, not 1 of 100 senators.  Big difference.  One Senator has a LOT of power, one rep does not.
[ Parent ]
And the Senate was deadlocked with Zell
When Zell was in his last years of causing trouble the Senate was bounced from a 50/50 split to a 51/49 split.  That's the biggest reason he was able to cause so much trouble for the party.
[ Parent ]
He's Cancer!!!
Cut him out before he spreads!  If Bright doesn't vote the party line on every issue, then, next thing you know, all Democrats will feel free to vote their conscience and their constituents' interests on occasion!
[ Parent ]
There is an art to straw-manning
You just failed at it.

Bright not voting the party line is a lot different from Bright actively supporting Mike Huckabee. If you can't see the difference between the two, you need to start paying attention.

Of course, he doesn't vote the party lines on many issues, and in most cases his votes don't benefit his constituents, they just screw over other people and delight big business, but that's tangential to my point.

[ Parent ]
Source?
The fact that Republicans wanted him to run as a Republican and he did not, runs counter to the argument that he'd switch parties.  In fact, it suggests just the opposite.

Any source for your statement that the only reason he ran as a Dem was to be in majority and avoid a primary or was this just speculation on your part?

[ Parent ]
As others have said
it is a matter of prioritizing.  If we have to spend a million dollars to save Bright every two years, that's money we can't spend against vulnerable Republicans like Gerlach, Dent, Reichert, etc.  And those districts would produce liberal Democrats.

We shouldn't abandon these super-red districts, but they should be the last priority after winning the blue and tossup districts.

[ Parent ]
I didn't really care about him in the first place
This vote just shows why he wasn't worth the money.
[ Parent ]
Eh, he could work out alright.
If he can mature into Gene Taylor or Rick Boucher, then he will have been worth the initial outlay.  Those guys cost us zero dollars for cycle after cycle and hold those seats for a generation.  That's pretty useful.  Having them in place helps prevent the state parties from atrophying, pads our margins and keeps the House out of contention for longer, and add some very non-Democratic seats to the all-important list of Safe Democratic.  We don't have enough purple and blue districts to hold a rock-solid majority; the extra dozen red districts are helping keep the NRCC from being able to make the case that it's a worthwhile investment.  They help turn our entire party into a solid incumbent.  The advantages of that are many.
[ Parent ]
McMorris Rodgers (WA-05)
Cathy McMorris Rodgers recently became vice chair of the House Republican Conference.  Presumably, in a leadership role, she may feel more obligated to vote the party line
Hopefully, gains in Spokane and the county south of it (can't remember which) can be parlayed into something.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
McCain won her distrct 52-46
She had a reasonably strong challenge Peter Goldmark in 2006, (now Commissioner of Public Lands), but was given a pass this last election.
[ Parent ]
Whitman
You're thinking of Whitman County, which has Pullman, home to Washington State University.  Aside from Spokane and Whitman and, maybe, Asotin, Walla Walla, and Benton County, the rest of the district is horrific.  Maybe the 4th is lagging behind and can absorb some of the most rural areas of McMorris's 5th?
[ Parent ]
Latham and McMorris
both had easier than expected re-elections this past year, despite Obama doing very well in their districts.  I guess they feel more confident.
Northeast and vulnerables
That small and shrinking group of Republicans from the Northeast voted for SCHIP by a 13-4 margin.  The four who didn't included right wing extremist Scott Garrett from NJ who still may be the only Republican who would be vulnerable from that district (NJ-5), Pitts and Shuster from PA, and the 80-something Roscoe Bartlett who polled 58% in a rock solid Republican district.  Bartlett, too, may be the only R from the district who could possibly lose.  He doesn'r raise money and isn't too energetic on the stump.

Along with Garrett and Bartlett, scanning through the list gave a lot of vulnerables:

Michele Bachmann of Minnesota 6
Judy Biggert of IL 13 (I think)  won  53-47 and will be 73
Brian Bilbray
Gus Bilirakis may not survive as well as dad
Ken Valvert  Mr. 1% win
Culberson
Fleming
Sam Graves I guess he's liberated by winning a big scare kinda easy

Walter Jones Not vulnerable but a surprise (unless there is another Jones)

Blaine Leutkemeyer  Won by 8,000 votes over Judy Baker
Don Manzullo
McCaul
Gary Miller,CA
Mike Rogers, MI (is he insane)
Tom Rooney, FL  It's a one-term district.  RU Nuts?
Peter Roskam, IL-6
Paul Ryan, WI  Was easy but GM closed the plant
Aaron Schock  Knew he was stupid in an ideological way

Mark Souder  Close race.  Dumb vote.
Lee Terry  Those Obama-Terry voters must be having second thoughts in Omaha.

Good list
A few caveats:
Walter Jones lives in the heart of tobacco country.  It would have taken a stunning amount of political courage for him, as a Republican, to vote against this.  I'm not surprised here.
Lee Terry has made it abundantly clear that he has his head up his ass by his fleeting attempts to not appear as tone-death as he really is (obviously there were some Obama-Terry voters, but his pandering at this level was ridiculous).  The only problem with going after him though is that Nebraska will lose a seat and I'd bet that they'll split the state North-South to make sure both districts are strongly Republican.
And yes, as it happens, Mike Rogers is insane.  I can't believe Debbie Stabenow used to represent (more or less) his district.
[ Parent ]
Nebraska to go from three seats to two?
I don't think I've ever seen such a projection from any of the reapportionment studies over the past couple of years. Where are you getting that one from?
[ Parent ]
Maybe I'm thinking of older studies?
I'm certain that I remember reading that Nebraska would likely lose a seat at least some reapportionment projections; maybe from earlier in the decade?  And then maybe my jetlagged brain decided that I read that last week?
I'm trying to find a study or projection or something, if for no other reason than to prove that I didn't get that idea from the magical place where Stu Rothenberg gets his theories on race relations.
[ Parent ]
Nebraska is unlikely to lose a seat...
until 2020. Which means that the district might become less Republican after the next round of redistricting.

Republicans are already floating some pretty awful plans (like cutting North Omaha completely out of the 2nd District and putting it in the first.) That one will be a non-starter, I'm sure.

The ideal scenario would be the 2nd District limited to Douglas County, where Democrats now hold a slight edge in voter registration. More than likely, they'll find some way to keep at least Offutt Air Force Base in the 2nd District.

But we've still got another election before then, and Terry's still vulnerable.  

[ Parent ]
A more important question IMO
is can we permanently solidify that electoral vote.

If we can, they'll definitely redraw that district so we don't.

Obama winning the district must've scared the crap out of the GOP.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Or they'll just go back to not awarding EVs by CD
Which I believe Republicans in the Unicameral have already threatened to do after they realized that Obama actually won NE-02.
[ Parent ]
Republicans have threatened...
But Democrats have enough votes to block it (17 Democrats plus 5 Republicans who told the AP they'd vote against it). A week in and I haven't seen it proposed yet, which doesn't mean they won't try.

And as someone said - Nebraska's legislature is nonpartisan in name only. The parties back candidates in elections. The only difference is there aren't any parties on the ballots and committee chairmanships aren't exclusive to one party.

[ Parent ]
How does Nebraska do it?
I thought Nebraska was one of the few states that had nonpartisan redistricting.  Maybe I'm confusing it with it's officially "non-partisan" unicameral legislature.
[ Parent ]
RE: "non-partisan"
No, there was nothing non-partisan about their legislature.

I actually lived out there during the redistricting, and the legislature most certainly doing its best to bury Democratic territory.  The fight over the line between the 3rd and 1st is what I remember most.  Hal Daub and Stenberg both losing were the bright spots of my time out there.

Unfortunately, I was stuck in Vokal's council district.

I never did understand how.  Everyone I knew around me (just east of the Med Center) were Democrats who didn't like him.

[ Parent ]
GT's vote
I was a little surprised by GT voting for SCHIP.  I know he is a big party purger, expressing how much their party would be better off without Specter and people like him.

However, the primary was not a pleasant one, with various charges brought against Derek Walker, with accusations that one of GT's favorites, Matt I don't get DUIs because my daddy is rich and important Shaner, was the one that leaked the story to the press just before the primary.

Some of Walker's leading supporters don't like GT, and that includes many members of the business community.

I wonder if he is not trying to ingratiate himself with some of the moral issues before all else crowd who happen to not be so econonically conservative.

I would imagine it has to do with building up his support and what he thinks the GOP should consist of, given that he has written off quite a bit of the people that you would think should naturally be Republican.

[ Parent ]
It was unfortunate that Glenn Thompson
won the primary.  I think McCracken would have had an even chance to steal the district against Shaner or Walker.

It is also a problem, because Thompson's presence will make it a little more difficult to draw State College and Lockhaven into Carney's district in 2012.

[ Parent ]
Same here
To be honest I was suprised to see Thompson win the primary at all since he hardly had any backing and little money. The only thing going for him was that John Peterson endorsed him. It was a very nasty primary since it was so crowded and the two candidates that were the frontrunners Matt Shaner and Darek Walker had there own problems, Shaner with the DUI and Walker with breaking into his girlfriend's apartment. I think Thompson won by getting 19 percent of the vote.

Given PA-05 is one of the most conservative districts in PA next to PA-09 I was suprised by his vote. Oh well glad he did it.

[ Parent ]
That's why I hate the term"non-partisan"
There's no such thing as non-partisan in politics.  Especially so in state legislatures.  All the unicameral in Nebraska does is make people guess what party their reps really belong to.  It's a completely idiotic system they have.
[ Parent ]
It's not that hard to figure out
Just go to Wikipedia and type in "Nebraska Senate" and on the page they have a complete list of what party the members belong to with the district map.
[ Parent ]
I know that
But the average voter doesn't.  All it does is confuse most voters who won't know what party a candidate is from due to the supposed non-partisan unicameral.
[ Parent ]
Glenn Thompson
I live in Glenn Thompson's district and during the election i thought that he would be exactly like Peterson and be more of a party follower but i was open to him and its nice to see how he voted on this. Also, in the local paper he was noted for expressing interest in the stimulus package and how he thinks some of it could be used on local highway projects. Im hoping he will surprise me in the future and maybe he won't be that bad.  
McCotter's vote was the most pathetic
Last time this bill was up for a vote he claimed that republicans would "lose their soul" by passing S-CHIP.  Yesterday he voted in favor.  Guess when you only get 51% of the vote in the last election your soul no longer matters.
Cubans
The Diaz-Balarts and Ros-Lehtinen probably voted for the bill this time because it stripped the ridiculous provision that legal immigrants (with an l) have to wait five years to become eligible for SCHIP.
This could be another reason Bright voted against it.
I can just hear the AL GOP now. "Bobby Bright voted to give free health care to a bunch of dirty Puertos!"
[ Parent ]
Who don't pay taxes to begin with!

[ Parent ]
Still not a defense
If his district feels that is a major sticking point, then fuck his district.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I'm pretty sure Mary Landrieu
had "She voted to give healthcare to ILLEGALS!!!!!" ads run against her.

The south is apparently really receptive to that message. I have no idea why. . .

[ Parent ]
Why you ask?
When you're talking about the south you're talking about a region that still thought it was a swell idea to keep all non-whites from having basic civil rights as recently as 40 years ago.  Why would you even bother trying to rationalize southern thought?  And I say that as a southerner myself.
[ Parent ]
Well Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida
have been disowned by the South for voting for Obama.
[ Parent ]
I love how all of a sudden certain conservatives are making up excuses for NC and VA.
They are now to be classified as the "mid-Atlantic region" or "border South". Funny how we never heard those phrases when they were voting for the other side for decades.

It's the bleeping South, Pat. Get over it.

[ Parent ]
Exactly
There were 11 states that once officially tried to disown the United States.  Those states, including VA, FL and NC have always and will always be southern states.
[ Parent ]
I think there's something to be said
for Chuck Todd's idea that Virginia and North Carolina are seceding from the Confederacy. Florida, of course, hasn't really voted like a southern state for 40 years or more.  
[ Parent ]
Florida =
hyper-conservative southerners + cubans + other latinos + old people + jews + real estate developers + space industry + wealthy northeastern transplants + people who can't count ballots + alligators + hurricanes.

+ Dave Barry.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
Comment of the Week
Dave Barry, made me, very literally lol.
[ Parent ]
Georgia won't be far behind
The influx of Northerners and Midwesterners, immigrants, and new generations who don't give a fuck about "The War Between the States" (like me) is changing the social and political fabric of Georgia.

I predict you'll see a re-aligning of the South in the coming decades.  Coastal, high growth states like Texas, Florida, Georgia, Virginia, and the Carolinas will move in our direction due to immigration and increasing cosmopolitan values while declining, stagnant, or slow growth states like Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkasas, etc. stay very Republican.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Not Mississippi
Nearly all growth in Mississippi is coming from AA's with little to noone moving into the state.  If anything the long-term trend in that state is in our favor.  Repubs have already tapped out the white vote there by getting 85-90% of it and they are quickly ahrinking as a proportion of the voting pool.
[ Parent ]
Yup
It's gonna be Alabama that's the redoubt. Along with Louisiana, Oklahoma and Tennessee, probably.

(I'm interested to see if Arkansas finally shifts R.)  

[ Parent ]
My ellipsis was intended
to indicate that I knew full well why. I just didn't exactly want to reignite a battle over the south. Ahem.
[ Parent ]
Ouch
Didn't know that was a provision in the old bill.  Glad that was stripped away.
[ Parent ]
Latham has voted against SCHIP before
Several times:

http://www.bleedingheartland.c...

He was just briefly posturing during the campaign.

Now he's confident Democrats won't be able to seriously challenge him in 2010.

Minnick
So far he's been pretty solid, voting with us on 2 of the first 3 major votes.  Not bad for a freshman in the reddest dem-held district in the nation.  Ya Bobby Bright... I'm looking at you!
Problems with S-CHIP
From the OP: "plenty of GOPers are still fool enough to vote against extremely popular legislation that helped do in a number of their caucus-mates."

I have problems with the S-CHIP expansion which makes it not necessarily an easy vote. What does it say about our liberal values that we care about insuring kids so much that...we'll force smokers to pick up the tab? Because the expansion is paid for by raising the federal cigarette tax.

It's easy for something to be "extremely popular" if someone else has to pay for it. If we were serious about the program, shouldn't we say that we're willing to pay for it? If we're not, what does that say about our support for the program?

(And never mind the fact that if the "sin tax" on tobacco is successful in cutting down smoking, it also reduces the money for the program, making it an unreliable funding mechanism.)

I'm all for insuring kids. But I'm against government that absolves its constituents of the responsibility for paying for the things they say they want--whether it's insuring kids or tax cuts--because it's just not a sustainable method  of running a country. One would think we would have learned over the past 8 years that there is no free lunch.

So I don't think this vote is a slam-dunk, even for liberals. Perhaps in terms of politics it is, but the larger policy questions are not so easily dismissed. I would have had reservations voting for it because we can force the responsibility for large programs onto a few only for so long.

And since there are legitimate policy issues here, I'd refrain from characterizing those voting no as mere crumb-bums.

I agree theoretically with your assessment of the cig tax
but how reliable has it proven to be in the past, and what are its trends?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Tax Addicts Instead?
It doesn't really matter to me whether raising the cost of cigarettes has an effect on smoking because either outcome is a bad one. If it does cut down smoking, then it will diminish the source of funding for S-CHIP. But if it has no effect, then we're essentially taxing addicts for their habit. And I think that's a pretty awful way of funding government programs.

But more important is the point that real support is demonstrated by action. If most of us really support insuring kids, then we should be willing to pay for it.

"Government" isn't supposed to be some abstract entity that randomly decides to tax us and then dole out programs; government is supposed to be the means by which we tax ourselves for the programs we say we want. When we restore our own basic responsibility for our government, then we can try to have a debate about what we're willing to pay for and what we're not. But we can't have that conversation if we assume that other people will pick up the bills for the things we want, or if we pretend that they're free. That way lies fiscal disaster, whether it's unpaid-for programs or unpaid-for tax cuts, and we'll all be worse off for it.

[ Parent ]
"SSP made a hobby of keeping a hairy eyeball on the twisted reptiles who voted against providing healthcare to children"
Wait...reptiles?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
I dunno
Word has it that the Lizard People were quite supportive of S-CHIP.
[ Parent ]
IIRC Mike Simpson (ID-02) voted for SCHIP, way back when
I remember seeing a video of Larry Grant crticizing Sali for exactly this, noting that even Mike Simpson voted for it.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
Hmm, maybe we should have a PVI-based tally of every major bill's vote
then we could look up this info for every bill, haha.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
S-CHIP Crumb-Bum Roll Call, 2009 Edition | 109 comments

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