On the other hand, it's New Jersey

the state where Christie Whitman barely won re-election.

If I were Corzine, I'd get on the air early to define Christie and, um, stay on the air. . . He can probably afford it.

---

by: andgarden @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 12:53:21 PM CST

Indeed

Corzine will have to do some digging. This is Jersey - no Nancy Boyda-style campaigning allowed. Thing is (and my post was getting too long for this), Christie has a pretty non-ideological record - that's the advantage of coming out of a prosecutor's office as opposed to some kind of legislative or executive role. What are his negatives?

And indeed, Christie Whitman won by just 1% both times. I guess you have to go back to 1985 to find a time when a Republican in NJ running statewide won by more than 1%.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 13:17:32 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Corzine might be well advised

to pull a Gray Davis and try to get Christie defeated in the primary. Problem is that New Jersey Republicans apparently aren't as wingnutty as California ones.

Pinning Christie down early on choice should be fun.

---

by: andgarden @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 13:21:23 PM CST

[ Parent ]

That Comparison With Davis

Corzine might be well advised to pull a Gray Davis...

I hope your interpretation of that is confined to Davis' financial aid to the Republican primary, and not to the negative campaign attack ads, widespread lies and accusations, and voter apathy that eventually led to a recall campaign a year later, which in the end gave us Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Also, Corzine also in my view doesn't seem like the type of guy to do that kind of campaigning.

---

by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 14:26:52 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Davis was recalled

Because voters blamed him for California's embarrassing energy problems - which it turned out were the results one of the most cynical, evil corporate conspiracies in modern times. (And at the time, anyone who dared to point this out was branded a conspiracy theorist - though of course, there was a conspiracy in this case!)

Davis also received endless abuse and media mockery for California's budget deficits, which of course pale in comparison to what Schwarzenegger is now responsible for. (And of course is getting nowhere near the same level of shit that Davis got.)

None of this is to say that Davis wasn't a flawed politician whom no one really liked. But he wasn't done in by negative advertising.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 14:56:27 PM CST

[ Parent ]

What are his negatives?

Bush?

We probably only have another year of milking that.

Still if Corzine is up 2-3% all year, he'll win. Corzine's reelection will be tight...I smell at 50%-47% type of deal, he's never been well liked, but Democrats and Independents tolerate him.

The man to run statewide is Codey. He's literally more popular than Jesus.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

---

by: nrafter530 @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 13:55:59 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Christie is a partisan hack

Just before the 2006 election, Christie "investigated" Menendez for ethics violations, just to make him look bad.

---

by: duffman @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 14:06:06 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Racist, too

Chrisitie saved his job as US Attorney for NJ (a job he got by fundraising for Bush) by agreeing to prosecute only Democrats.  And for Christie, that meant minorities, particularly black Democrats.  Before that, one of his dignificant "triumphs" was taking down the Hispanic Republican who was Mayor of the state's third largest city, Paterson.

Watch him on TV.  He's fat, sanctimonious, and not a team player.  He failed badly in his only elected office as a Freeholder in Morris County (all Republicans, feuded with them constantly).

Christie is a creature of a few newspapers and cable TV.  They love him.  The man is just born to deflate with exposure like a pinata. While Christie is the media-annointed favorite, Frank LoBiondo (for one) or Chris Smith would be a tougher opponent.  

---

by: David Kowalski @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 15:23:33 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Christie could win, but...

Jon Corzine has never been popular in my state, mostly because he is not terribly likeable.  Still, Christie has little name recognition statewide, and that is a big problem for a state with no centralized media.  

Christie could conceivably win if he raised upwards of $20 million, but faced with Corzine spending whatever it takes, the Republican is going to have a hard time.  Also, while Christie looks great on paper, I am not sure that his record is going to translate politically.  He has never held any office above a county freeholder.  And with all due respect, he is really overweight and I am not sure he will be able to adjust to a statewide campaign.  

Corzine can be beaten.  He will never be liked in New Jersey, but even a decent GOP candidate like Christie is going to need a mint of cash to get over the top.  

---

by: Andy Dufresne @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 13:20:15 PM CST

Haha what is he hanging out at Satriale's too much?

N/T

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog

---

by: fitchfan28 @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 13:42:36 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I'd love to watch the Republicans

waste millions of dollars losing to Corzine

---

by: duffman @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 13:56:50 PM CST

Doesn't this

always happen with regards to New Jersey? An early poll shows some weakness and the Democrat wins by a decent margin regardless.

---

by: mkpowers @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 14:47:05 PM CST

I was tempted to mention this

Oft-cited bit of wisdom, which I think usually rings true. But I think Corzine is in more than the usual amount of trouble for a Jersey Dem.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 14:58:40 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Hmm

I thought Lautenberg was in more trouble last time than Corzine is now. I could be wrong, though. Presidential coattails count for something.  

---

by: andgarden @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 15:00:12 PM CST

[ Parent ]

In 2008? Really?

I did not feel that way at all. Perhaps if the GOP had had a better candidate (which they almost did). But not with Zimmer and way too much senate defense.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 15:35:57 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I think being really old

can be a serious handicap.

However, as soon as he made hamburger out of Bob Andrews, I wasn't worried anymore.  

---

by: andgarden @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 15:40:29 PM CST

[ Parent ]

No, not at all.

Most people see Lautenberg as "that old guy in the Senate." Most people see Corzine as "that idiot in the Statehouse."

---

by: snj @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 20:18:17 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Yes, but this is different.

New Jersey is in a lot of financial trouble (not to mention the ridiculous property taxes) and the only solutions are very unpopular. Unfortunately, all the blame is being put on Corzine. Very little of it is actually his fault though. A lot of the problems started in the Whittman administration and were ignored by McGreevy.

At the moment, I think Corzine has about a 50% chance of being reelected. New Jerseyans don't like any of their politicians but are willing to put up with them if they do a good job. Corzine's job performance has been pretty weak. This election will be hard and the result will be close.

---

by: snj @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 20:12:25 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Ah, New Jersey ...

Corzine is unpopular.  Not just the typical "I hate the politicians" unpopular, but really unpopular.  It's a bad time to be governor - the money is dried up, and New Jersey had for even the best of times relied on odd financial gimmicks to balance the budget.  

Corzine tried to push through a plan to drastically raise tolls on the state's three toll roads to cover the budget crisis.  Didn't sell at all - provoked a healthy amount of protest.  Now, he has been forced to cut the budget dramatically.  It backfires, however, in that the local governments have to cover their expenses increasingly by property taxes.

That all said, none of the Republican contenders have real name recognition.  Even Chris Christie isn't known by a large percentage of the population, despite some high-profile indictments.

New Jersey is a really difficult state to gain traction.  We have no significant in-state media.  To go on the highest-coverage media, you have to go on New York or Philadelphia - high coverage, but VERY expensive.

Corzine, of course, has two big advantages.  He's an incumbent, with money reserved, and he's rich.  He largely self-financed his two prior races (Senate and Governor), and can use he cash again.  None of the Republican possibilities can match the cash.

BTW, Chris Christie may right now have the repuation as non-partisan, but he was a Republican office-holder before his term as US Attorney.

---

by: kje @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 15:28:49 PM CST

huh?

A seven point lead is enormous for Democrats in New Jersey. People hate all policians, but remember they tend to swing for the most part to Democrats. 40-33 is a great place to be against the strongest possible Republican candidate.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

---

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 20:59:55 PM CST

One of these days...

...I fear this kind of attitude is gonna bite us hard in the ass.

---

by: James L. @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 21:07:15 PM CST

[ Parent ]

its the truth

tons of undecideds in every NJ race I've ever seen. Lautenburg had a lot of 1 or 2 point leads at this point, and he won with 54% of the vote against a very strong, moderate Republican.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

---

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 21:09:02 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I agree with ArkDem

Outside of the 1993 Govenror's race which was a prelude to 1994 he's dead on.  Democrats always poll very poor, even incumbents early in New Jersey races.  The end results is always the same.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 21:49:07 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Of course

This same line of thought told us that Adler and Stender had nothing to worry about last year...

---

by: James L. @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 23:21:27 PM CST

[ Parent ]

They were running in districts

drawn for Republicans. I don't think that was ever a wise line of thought.  

---

by: andgarden @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 23:51:00 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Very true

That didn't stop it from popping up in the comments periodically over the past year, though.

---

by: James L. @ Sun Jan 11, 2009 at 00:23:00 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Watching Stender's campaign on TV

(that's how one campaigns in New Jersey) quickly disabused me of that notion. It was horrible. (Remember Lois Murphy. . .?)

Adler ran a stronger campaign, but even he had to contend with deep red Ocean County (which was, for some reason, much less red in 2000).

I think abandoning gun control as a national issue has hurt Dems in New Jersey, even if it has probably helped nationwide.  

---

by: andgarden @ Sun Jan 11, 2009 at 00:28:39 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Ocean County

"which was, for some reason, much less red in 2000"

9/11 forever reddened some parts of New Jersey.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

---

by: nrafter530 @ Sun Jan 11, 2009 at 01:24:21 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I don't think Ocean County

really qualifies.

And really the 9/11 effect is more obvious in the NYC burbs (LI and SI) than in north Jersey.  

---

by: andgarden @ Sun Jan 11, 2009 at 01:27:26 AM CST

[ Parent ]

It does

A lot of retired NYC firefighters moved to Ocean County, and Northern Ocean County is home to many relatives of 9/11 victims. (Monmouth County, which also reddened since 2000) was home to alot of victims proper.

Knowing the area, I think there was a big 9/11 effect throughout North and Central Jersey, but it didn't hold in some parts of the area, especially in Bergen, Morris, and Somerset Counties. Ocean County has essentially become Alabama, with all the Jesus and kill the terrorists. I was down there in July and the support of McCain and even for Bush was a little unnerving.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

---

by: nrafter530 @ Sun Jan 11, 2009 at 01:33:08 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Hmm, that's kinda shocking

But I don't know anyone who lives in Ocean County, aside from a few people who have summer places there. I guess it's kind of a universe of its own.

 

---

by: andgarden @ Sun Jan 11, 2009 at 01:35:51 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Those with summer places

tend to be rather liberal. It's interesting...if you're in Ocean County in July and you talk to people on the boardwalks, on the beaches, in the bars, you'd think Seaside Heights, Point Pleasant, etc. are some of the most Democratic places and you wonder where these GOP votes are coming from?

Then you see the election results and you're like "wtf?"

The truth is the locals sorta hide or keep quiet in the summer, and the vacationers come from NYC, Northern New Jersey or Eastern Pennsylvania...Democratic areas.

I noticed a real different in political discussion in July and in January.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

---

by: nrafter530 @ Mon Jan 12, 2009 at 22:08:47 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Monmouth is still pretty Democratic

I mean Adler won it.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

---

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Sun Jan 11, 2009 at 15:36:01 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Individual districts vs. statewide

Stender lost a district that's what, R+1?  The state as a whole is far more democratic.  Even Adler's district is a good deal less democratic than the state overall.  

---

by: ChadInFL @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 23:52:42 PM CST

[ Parent ]

The 7th voted for W twice

and the 3rd once. They are considerably more Republican than the state as a whole. See here and here.

---

by: andgarden @ Sun Jan 11, 2009 at 00:16:06 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Actually no

Stender and Adler was always struggling. Adler was behind in most polls.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

---

by: nrafter530 @ Sun Jan 11, 2009 at 01:22:27 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I clearly agree

I remember those polls well -- after all, I did blog 'em! But my point here is that from time to time someone would pop up in the comments and brush off the dicey numbers by saying that New Jersey polling always underestimates Democrats.

---

by: James L. @ Sun Jan 11, 2009 at 03:28:04 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Well that's the point

Even though in hindsight they were both clearly struggling, especially Stender, the CW was that because it was NJ and because Obama was appealing in these types of suburban districts that they'd manage to pull it off.  I can't think of  a single poll that Stender was leading in, but I doubt anyone though the odds here were worse than 50-50, and most people (myself included) figured them to be much better.
In think in the end though, what really happened is that we overestimated the capacity of suburban voters not to split their tickets. Many of the heartbreaking losses were in suburban districts (WA-08, IL-10, MN-03 all come to mind). The common factor in all of these districts is that the voters either generally liked how the faux-moderate incumbent was doing (WA-08, IL-10) or weren't interested in what the Democrat was selling (MN-03, NJ-07, to an extent WA-08, though she probably could have won anyway if the Reichert didn't have the Seattle media in his back pocket).
One of the most important lessons of '08 was not to take swing demographics for granted like many of us were.

---

by: Nico @ Sun Jan 11, 2009 at 03:42:12 AM CST

[ Parent ]

New Jersey pols always poll low

But the Dems always seem to win.  Look at Lautenberg.  Corzine didn't poll great numbers last time either.  It's too bad he can't be primaried, given all his money, because he hasn't been a great governor.  But I'd still make him the clear favorite in the race.

---

by: Paleo @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 21:13:26 PM CST

Lonegan's New Jersey's Reagan

Corzine is Jimmy Carter -- hated by the regular Democrats.  Lonegan's going to win  the primary because he's a  conservative.  

Christie's problem is that he is pro-abortion and pro-gun control.b  He stands for nothing and his kickoff was a bomb.

And Lonegan's got over a million dollars raised.  Christie has nothing and the people he's counting on: Wall Street, out-of-power ex-political machines and pro-abortion wing of the party can't produce much these days.  He's going to have a tough time raising money?

Steve Lonegan's record can't be attacked.  With New Jersey's economy in the toilet, who will care about Corzine ads on abortion and guns?

---

by: Kiki @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 21:57:12 PM CST

Toilet

What state's economy isn't now?  New Jersey's unemployment rate is actually lower than the national average.  As for Lonegan, he's a loon and, unlike Reagan, comes across as one.  Even if he could make headway on his economic and fiscal arguments, New Jersey has not elected a social conservative to statewide office.  He won't be the first.

---

by: Paleo @ Sun Jan 11, 2009 at 08:22:51 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Every state economy is in the toilet

I believe Alaska was the last state declared in recession, probably due to it's socialist tendencies.  Ya, I said it.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Sun Jan 11, 2009 at 14:32:17 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Even Texas is contracting too.

My BF and I have had loads of trouble finding work here (him in computer science and me in biology [and even hospitals are not hiring]), and his mom has already moved to northwest Arkansas, probably the only spot in the region that is not doing bad, with Wal-Mart hiring even consultants and technicians that work on designing their checkout scanners and other technological stuff.

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

---

by: californianintexas @ Sun Jan 11, 2009 at 16:01:20 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Florida is really bad and getting worse

Unemployment is soaring here too.  I'm a mutual funds administrator and my company has weathered the financial storm better than most.  But just last week five people were laid off in my department of 70 with another 5-10 job cuts coming soon.  I think my job is safe however... for now.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Sun Jan 11, 2009 at 18:11:33 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Jimmy Carter didn't have oodles of money to spend

Also Carter didn't have a country as Democratic as New Jersey is.

---

by: IHateBush @ Sun Jan 11, 2009 at 19:52:45 PM CST

[ Parent ]

not worried about this one at all

New Jersey Democratic incumbents always underpoll their actual performance.

---

by: Politicalhack @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 22:03:43 PM CST

Corzine will lose

I'm predicting.

The reason Democrats underpoll here is because Democrats usually come home in the end. While that may happen to Corzine, i'm not so sure.

A lot of New Jersey Democrats hate him, which could not be said of Kerry, Menendez or Obama, and they're intereted in Christie. The way Corzine wins is increasing his popularity and/or destroying Christie's pending popularity.

I think it's almost certain we'll win the Lt. Governorship, but lose the Governorship.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

---

by: nrafter530 @ Mon Jan 12, 2009 at 22:06:24 PM CST