Interesting

A legit pickup opportunity if the seat is open.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 21:26:47 PM CST

It's about as Republican as the state as a whole

I'm not so optimistic.  

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by: andgarden @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 22:06:51 PM CST

STRAMA!!!!

Everyone else is second banana. State Rep. Strama has been very comfortably winning this more conservative part of Travis County since 2004 in a race he (nor any Dem) was not supposed to win.

Good Progressive, great communicator, fantastic guy.

If it's open, draft Strama.

Here's Mark's issues page:  http://markstrama.com/pub_issu...

Here's a nice youtube introduction to both Mark and Donna Howard who's statehouse district barely intersects TX-10 but if she could and were to run for it would also be fantastic:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

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by: trowaman @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 22:12:26 PM CST

Woah

Didn't know he won in such a tough district. He's a really awesome guy and I always thought he was in a deep blue district doomed for a life in Austin politics. He'd be a fantastic guy who I'd enthusiastically get behind.

Grant is also a good progressive and a freind of now Rep. Glenn Nye. Either could take good shots at the seat.  

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by: Populista @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 23:23:50 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Strama's District

Round Rock and Pflugerville parts of Travis county, northern most parts of the city.

Also, checked the state rep vs. US House map, only other dem that intersects is Hubert Vo in Harris (district 149) and no we do not want him running. He has some allegations of being a slumlord, I dunno if they are true, but they are still allegations that are being taken seriously. Some other Austin reps may go through, but none as fully as Strama and Donna Howard is the only other one with the potential to go up the ladder.

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by: trowaman @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 00:16:44 AM CST

[ Parent ]

hell yes

I'd definitely get behind a Strama candidacy.

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by: Anesthetic @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 00:51:16 AM CST

[ Parent ]

we'll see

I ran Strama's most recent re-election campaign (another 30 point blow out). I haven't talked to him about this as of yet (I dropped him an email) but given the state of the Texas House now, he's pretty focused on that for the session.  

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by: KTinTX @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 05:27:26 AM CST

[ Parent ]

So I asked

Strama's going to stay in the House, as I expected.

Answer is the same both on and off the record:  I'm not interested in the seat.  I think the action is more interesting in the Texas House; with the new Speaker I feel like it's going to be possible to make a real difference, particularly in promoting my renewable energy agenda; and I've got a 2 year old daughter with another baby on the way in July.  I've never understood how anyone in Congress can have a normal family life, splitting their time between DC and their districts.

But don't worry, there is another person I'm aware of now thanks to him who could be a real force with the ability to bring some fundraising power to the table.  

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by: KTinTX @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 17:24:06 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Thanks KT

Looking forward to hearing more details in the future on this potential contender.

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by: James L. @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 17:46:45 PM CST

[ Parent ]

No problem

I'm meeting with Dan Grant tomorrow and the other person likely in the future. I think it's in everyone's interest to make sure we're all above board on this and not fail to make most of our opportunities.

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by: KTinTX @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 20:31:31 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Also the Numbers Are

44% Obama - 55% McCain
38% Kerry  - 62% Bush

43% L.J. Doehrty - 54% McCaul (2008)
41% Ankrum - 55% McCaul (2006)
0% Democrats - 84% McCaul (2004)

It appears the folks aren't none too willing to split tickets or Larry Joe just wasn't right get people. Cross tabs show he performed the same as Obama in both Travis and Harris County (remember, he has the crazy part of Harris in his district).

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by: trowaman @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 22:31:46 PM CST

Hispanic

Hispanic growth here has been through the roof.

Any possible Hispanic candidates here?

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by: homerun @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 22:55:32 PM CST

25% Hispanic

Forget it.

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by: andgarden @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 23:02:53 PM CST

[ Parent ]

this is libertarian country

Michael Badnarik came within a mere 49 points of toppling McCaul in 2006. And this district borders Ron Paul's!

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by: virgiltexas @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 23:52:09 PM CST

Texas Republicans (age)

Ralph Hall (born 1923), Sam Johnson (born 1930) and Ron Paul are all well up in age.  All the Texas GOP CDs have lousy PVIs due to Bush.  Hall (R+17), Johnson (R+17) and Paul (R+14) are actually in districts that rank average or a little better from a Democratic stand point.

Any chance they might retire?  Or how bout one of the power wielders like Joe Barton?  He'd probably make more money working as a lobbyist rather than merely working with the lobbyists.  And Joe certainly seems like a "bidness man" as the old phrase goes.

Texas Republicans have been curiously immune from the retirement bug. Maybe it's time to catch up.

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by: David Kowalski @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 09:16:55 AM CST

I don't want Paul to go for awhile

He's a useful tool who gives the GOP headaches on a good number of issues.  I'd much rather have him in that seat than the alternative - a cookie-cutter conservative who is with us on nothing.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 10:06:28 AM CST

[ Parent ]

He's a useful tool

when there is a Repub agenda with a Repub Prez, Paul will oppose a lot of that.  But with Obama as President, Paul will basically oppose all of his domestic agenda with all the Repubs, and oppose most of Obama's foreign policy for being too interventionist.

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by: IHateBush @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 12:35:12 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I was certain Hall was retiring in 2008

low fundraising, he looked like a done deal. I was wrong. He or Johnson might be hanging it up soon.

I swear I heard something from Barton saying this was his last term.

Paul's gonna be there unless he is beaten by a primary challenge. I really don't like him, it's so annoying once his district is so close to your own and leave u high and dry with hurricane funding.

btw Hall's district went 69%-30% for McCain; Paul's went 66%-33% for McCain. Hall's meanwhile went 57%-42% for McCain. So Hall's and Paul's PVIs are about right, Johnson's district isn't because of Bush, it's just Dallas is turning on a dime and Collin county moved 9 points more democratic.

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by: trowaman @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 11:39:11 AM CST

[ Parent ]

It is probably better that these guys

wait until 2012 for retirement.  I think we'll have a better chance of winning these open seats in a likely Obama landslide nationally than we do in a midterm.

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by: IHateBush @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 20:19:36 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Likely landslide?

That may be a bit overly optimistic.  I think he'll win re-election since sitting Presidents win roughly 2/3rds of the time, but it may not be a landslide.  My guess is they get a 2nd-tier candidate like Bob Dole was in 1996 to run and most of the better possible GOP candidates wait till 2016.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 17:01:39 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Incumbents either lose

or win by more than they did in their first election, the one exception is Wilson.  Given that Obama won by 7.2%, my feeling is that he will win by at least 10-15%, with the possibility of more depending on who is nominated (e.g Romney, Palin) for the Repubs.

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by: IHateBush @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 19:44:33 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I thought FDR also won less than he did the first time in his third and fourth elections

IIRC.  though those aren't second-term wins.

Also, methinks, if Obama is still wildly popular four years down the road, they'll try to find a sacrificial lamb with coattails.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 21:29:14 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Correct

FDR won 57-40 in 1932, 61-37 in 1936, 55-45 in 1940 and 53-46 in 1944.  So his second election was his best, followed by declines in his 3rd and 4th terms.  Of course he did have his best challenger in 1944 in NY Governor Thomas Dewey.  Even in 1944 his opponent didn't crack 100 EV's.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 22:10:15 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Whoops!

I meant Sam Johnson with the major McCain nosedive down to 57%

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by: trowaman @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 21:34:40 PM CST

[ Parent ]