Premium Sponsor


Featured Sponsor


Our Sponsors


Ad Networks

Advertise Liberally

Buy an ad on all of the top liberal blogs with just one click.

Site Stats

OH-Sen: GOP Retirement Bonanza to Continue?

by: James L.

Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 7:35 PM EST


Matt Lewis sez so:

... In other news, I am hearing rumors coming out of Ohio that Senator Voinovich is seriously considering making an announcement next week that he won't be running for re-election. According to my sources, Rob Portman would likely be the Republican to replace him. This also opens up the GOP gubernatorial nomination for former Republican Congressman John Kasich.

Hoo-boy. A Voinovich retirement would make four in the Senate GOP's ranks (Brownback, Martinez, and Bond being the first to go), and would surely turn into a top-tier tossup race, with Democrats Lee Fisher (Ohio's Lt. Governor) and Rep. Tim Ryan being two of the most likely primary contenders. I have to wonder, though: would it have been better for either of these guys to run against Voino rather than a magically unblemished Rob Portman? Discuss.

(Mad props to Populista for the catch.)

Update: Voiny's office confirms what we already know:

Sen. George Voinovich (R-Ohio) is considering retirement, but his office confirmed he has not yet made a final decision about what he will do in 2010.

"For over 40 years, Sen. Voinovich has demonstrated a passion for public service," said Chris Paulitz, a senior adviser to Voinovich. "He is thinking about the challenging situation in his beloved Buckeye State and the direction of the country, as well as what is best for his family. If he changes his mind about running, he will share that decision quickly with the people of Ohio - people he considers his second family."
James L. :: OH-Sen: GOP Retirement Bonanza to Continue?
Tags: , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
OH-Sen: GOP Retirement Bonanza to Continue? | 56 comments
Portman is blemished by links to Bush
I'd rather Voinovich retire though it isn't like Grassley or Gregg where retirements are needed to push them into the top tier.
This could be the chance to build up our numbers in preparation for 2012
That's a year I'm not looking forward to (at least as far as our senatorial prospects are concerned... shudder

But anyways, we should have a good shot at making Ohio a true-blue state for the senate (thus joining the ranks of such wonderful places like New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Massachussetts, and California [and many, many more :D]).

Your go-to source for great sarcasm

2012 won't be too bad if Obama is in decent shape to be re-elected
If not then expect a bloodbath up and down the ticket.
[ Parent ]
2012
looks pretty good to me. The only obvious targets are MO and VA. Our pickups in RI, MT, OH and PA have done a good job of establishing themselfs and are in states without deep GOP benches. Webb is Webb and thus always vulnerable and MO didn't shift blue as quickly as other states and has a deeper GOP bench but even still I can't imagine her losing unless it's a very bad climate for us.

2014 could be bloody though, Franken, Begich and likely retiree Johnson and Landreiu all could go down in a good election for us.  

[ Parent ]
Rehberg would have a 50/50 shot at
beating Tester in Montana. He's also very popular. But you're right about the rest. And even McCaskill has done a very good job so far.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Yeah
But what makes you think he'd want to vacate a safe House seat for a (at best) 50/50 shot at joining a Republican caucus that could only control a third of the seats in the Senate. And if he passes the Republicans have nothing.

In addition to getting good candidates to run and win in 08 Schumer also did a very good job of taking them under his wing and getting them off to very good starts.

[ Parent ]
2012 could be tough only in the sense
of the fact that politics is cyclical
Democrats made great gains in two consecutive elections but we haven't seen consecutive gains in both houses of congress for 3 times straight since FDR,s time. The Dems truly out did themselves making gains 4 times in a row (1930,1932,1934,1936)

The GOP is only defending 9 seats to our 24! So it will challenging to make sure we hold all those seats.

[ Parent ]
So?
Assuming: Open seat Maine, Open seat Indiana, Ensign in Nevada, and Kyl in Arizona should be seriously competitive. MAYBE Texas (open, still 1 cycle too early IMO).

Corker, Hatch (or anyone), Barasso, and Wicker seem untouchable.

Could end up being a neutral year for us.

[ Parent ]
Which would be astonishing
24 of ours up vs. 9 of theirs.  If they fail to make substantial gains in 2012 then they truly are in for another 40 or so years in the minority.

We seem to have benefited by making most of our gains in safe states for us.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Our ranks aren't as full of conservative (not moderate, but honest to god conservative) Democrats from conservative districts.  Our House majority is much more (sub/ex/just plain)urban.  That seems much more sustainable to me.  Sure, there could be another big rural Republican swing, but who all would conceivably fall?  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
My life is complete
my username has made it to the front page of the Swing State Project!

If Voinovich retires and we get one of our top 10 recruits we win this no matter who they put up. Portman and Kasich are both way to conservative economically to win Ohio. Strickland, Fisher, Burner, Codey, Ryan, Sutton, Coleman, Space, Kaptur and Hackett just to name 10 could beat either of them, IMHO.  

Mixed Bag:
On the plus side... Voinovich would probably be able to raise more money as an incumbent senator than any non-incumbent will.  A primary could damage the Republican candidate before the general election.  

On the negative side... Voinovich was already damaged goods and a new Republican candidate would have the opportunity to define himself.  

The only one who is economically moderate enough
is Steve LaTourette, and I doubt he will run.  Portman and Kasich are orthodox free-marketers who will get crushed by a economic progressive/social moderate like Tim Ryan.  
[ Parent ]
I think it helps
Voinovich at least had a reputation as a moderate.  Unless Bush is "vindicated by history" (ha!) in the next two years, Portman's connections to Bush will hurt him.
Agree it helps.
Would help!  Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.

Voinovich as an incumbent is considerably stronger than Portman in an open race, I think.  Voinovich, like Grassley, is good enough and just moderate enough that voters will be slightly reluctant to "fire" him.  In a clear open contest though, Portman will have few selling points other than "against Obama", if indeed that is what Ohio wants in two years.  Otherwise his record is too extreme for the state.  He's got nothing to sell except "will oppose Obama."

I dearly hope Voinovich retires.  Grassley would be even better.  Senator Braley would be a rockstar.

Rob Portman who?
Rob Portman is a former Cinncinnati congressman. How much of Ohio knows or cares who the OMB chairman is? And how many of those could be soured upon him once it's revealed what the OMB did under his leadership? There's a reason why McCain didn't pick him - it's far from guaranteed that he would have brought Ohio.
OMB is less important
than the fact that Portman was the Trade Representative for an admin that shipped jobs overseas.  I suspect that most of the attacks against Portman will be using that line, Portman supports shipping your jobs overseas.
[ Parent ]
yeah
the campaign against Portman writes itself.  If he's the GOP's dream recruit for Ohio than we have already won this seat.
[ Parent ]
We should have
quick hits like OpenLeft where active members can post tidbits. But since we don't and the open thread is way down here's a tidbit about Alex Sink post-Bush.

I'm very seriously considering the race. It's an enormous opportunity to serve the people of Florida. ... I have a few more people I'd like to have the opportunity to speak to about it

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz...

That sounds to me like someone finalizing a run and lining up support. Also Mario Rubio is preparing a run and will be meeting with Big Bad John and Co next week. McCollum is also giving it a hard look and will hopefully jump in and make for a bloody primary.  

Sweet! (n/t)


Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)
[ Parent ]
I saw an article awhile ago where sink met with Menendez and Reid
So she has jumped through the same hoops as Rubio.  
[ Parent ]
Yep
I'd imagine she's just building a campaign team and dealing with Florida politics and will be in the race by Jan 20th or decide by then and get in officially shortly after.  
[ Parent ]
Regarding Texas, Bit Confused...
Some have speculated as soon as KBH begins her gubernatorial campaign, she will resign from the Senate, prompting a special election. Now, we're not talking about a special election that coincides with the November 2010 midterms are we?

Unless there's some state law in Texas that I don't know about, my assumption is that KBH can remain a Senator while running for Governor, and if she's successful she can then resign her seat, prompting the special election. There's no reason for her to give up her office if she happens to lose and has nothing to go back to, even if she's already planned to retire in 2012. But these are Republicans, and I assume they'll hang onto power as long as they can.

Obama and Biden did this during the presidential campaign. Hell, Biden even ran for reelection as Senator for Delaware while also running for Vice President.

 

Rules for Texas:
Everything goes into a holding pattern depending upon what KBH does.

She can resign at any time, wether that is tonight or the day before she is sworn in as governor.

If the resignation is around this June: then the special is this November.

If the resignation is in the fall or early spring (post primary) the election is April-June 2009

If the resignation is Nov 2009- January 2010, election is in Aprilish 2010

If she loses the primary (best option for democrats) the election is as normally held in fall 2012 in what KBH promises will be an open seat.

[ Parent ]
How does this affect
how Voinovich will vote in the Senate?  Is it more or less likely that a retiring Voinovich will vote for cloture on some of Obama's programs like health care, energy, and EFCA?
I think it makes him perhaps more likely to vote with us
I've always thought Voinovich was a pretty moderate guy, who probably felt the need to go right with his party more than he wanted to.  Remember he was three times elected Mayor of Cleveland, the last two times by overwhelming margins, so he can't be a hard-core conservative and do that.
[ Parent ]
Voinovich Could Be the Mark Hatfield Of His Time....
....infuriating his party by blocking their agenda on his way out the door.
[ Parent ]
We will need a Repub vote to get to cloture
and hopefully Voinovich will be that vote and have the guts to tell the Repub obstructionists to go to hell.  Because it seems like that Specter isn't going to do that.
[ Parent ]
I Know Nothing About Fischer But....
....I'd take odds on a Democrat like Tim Ryan over Rob Portman any day.
With all the Republican House leadership jumping overboard...
(Wamp, possibly Putnam, Hoekstra had seniority built up...) Maybe Boner will jump ship and run for senate!  Although an easy tv ad of him crying would be the dagger to the heart.  
Boner?
Is that a typo for Boehner or snark?  I'm bettin' snark.

Running for Senate would be an easy way of disposing of him.  Given a possibly nasty primary and less than a 50/50 shot in the general why would he run for the Senate?  

I guess renzi et, al. were right about him.

[ Parent ]
Betty Sutton
My #1 Pick!!
Sutton can win if
she runs the way that Sherrod Brown did, as a economic populist first.
[ Parent ]
Exactly, Plus she has strong ties...
To EMILY's list.
[ Parent ]
and . . .
this is good news?

I'm sorry but their track record has been spotty as of late (see TN-9 2008, and 2006 general election results).

Weren't they also being  . . . fanatical . . . in their support of Hillary during the primary?

[ Parent ]
The Nikki Tinker support is more damning to me.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Nikki Tinker
Ugh...
[ Parent ]
Oh come on
A little Jew bashing and using race as a wedge issue never hurt nobody.
[ Parent ]
Out of curiosity
Where is she socially?  Seems like a few of our Ohio Dems in lean Dem districts are anti-choice.
[ Parent ]
Pretty liberal
which is why if she is going to run, Sutton has to position herself as a strong economic populist before the Repubs can portray her as too liberal.
[ Parent ]
Sutton is VERY pro-choice
and very socially liberal.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
I'd actually rather Voinovich run
If he does run he's guaranteed to get a hotly contested primary, and even if he wins that primary he'll have a split republican base since conservatives dislike him.
I'd rather not
a hotly contested primary from the right for Voinovich means that he joins Specter in massive obstruction of Obama's agenda.  No primary or retirement suggests that he may compromise and eventually help pass things like health care.
[ Parent ]
I'd prefer Republicans have a candidate moderates hate rather than a candidate Republicans hate.
At least then their vote switches from Republican to Democrat.  If conservatives don't like the Republican, chances are they are going to vote for the Republican.  
[ Parent ]
And to think...
After another nice wave in 2008 I was pessimistic about gaining much in 2010.  I'm officially excited about 2010 after all these developments in the Senate.

The Governor's races I'm still not sure what to think.  Hard to gauge much of anything this early.

Governor's races all depend on retirements/recruitment
Won't know for months how some of them will shape up.  My early assessment is a probable break even, we've gotta be favored to get states like CA, RI, and HI, but are the underdogs in KS, WY, and OK.
[ Parent ]
Retirement announcements
start earlier and earlier every election cycle.
Someboday tell the Club for Growth
We need their help.  

Warm up a wingnut who can win 35% in a four way race.

The Club for Growth is the DLC of the Republican Party
Both push their parties disasterously to the right.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Sweet, more great news.
Voinovich may have been a better target since he has a record to attack but I suspect that an open seat will draw a stronger Democrats into the race. It also forces the NRSC to spend more money then would be necessary if an established incumbent with a war chest could cover their own ass.
this would be very good news
who's matt lewis?  

voinovich, i suspect is well liked, well-known and can raise a ton of money and he would also have nothing but a token primary.  

if he retires kasich and portman could run - maybe even a current GOP housemember - could be messy (fingers crossed).  it would also necessitate the RSC dumping piles of money into OH no matter what.

on our side, would fisher vs ryan be messy?

He's not well-liked
His approvals are have been consistently in the low to mid 40's for a very long time.  
[ Parent ]
Nothing to see here
The report cited is (at best!) just recycling loose talk that has been circulating about Voinovich for a long, long time. There has been NOTHING specific or reliable regarding his retirement. I'm not saying that it won't happen, but there is NOTHING specific to go on.

And in a sense, it doesn't matter.

With Sherrod Brown's win and other recent successes in Ohio, yes, there will be a major effort for this Senate seat in 2010. It doesn't really matter whether G.V. stays or goes. There are pros and cons each way.

But there is a VERY short list of candidates on the Dem side: Fisher and Ryan.

I have seen polling numbers for some of the House members cited above and they simply don't have ANY statewide traction. And it will take some serious bucks and (perhaps more importantly) a strong organization to first win the primary and then to be effective in the general election.

Remember, this race will be the "top of the ticket." No governor or presidential races = lower turnout and less progressive voter pool. The ground game will be everything.

ODP and the Strickland machine will back Fisher who is odds on favorite to win the primary. So much so, that I doubt if most of the Congresscritters mentioned in this thread, even CONSIDER running (other than Ryan.)

For example, Lloyd Mahaffey (the czar of the Ohio UAW) tried to push Marcy Kaptur into running statewide at one point and it went absolutely nowhere. It's kind of surprising, given that she is the most senior Democratic woman in the U.S. House, but statewide she doesn't poll well at all.

Betty Sutton, ditto.

I had been supporting Rich Cordray but he took the Ohio AG special election, instead. And, in fact, it's a good fit.

The real fight will be to protect Judge Brunner at SoS. Ohioans support simple competence, but the tin foil hat wingnuts are going to go bat shit against her. In fact, it comes close to a "bring it on" situation, because I doubt if any amount of money can beat her.


Top of the ticket?
Strickland is up.
[ Parent ]
OOPs
I stand corrected. Still, it won't be like this year.  
[ Parent ]
Ambinder has more sources
[ Parent ]
OH-Sen: GOP Retirement Bonanza to Continue? | 56 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

Talk to your supporters, not tech support. Campaign Engine is the powerful, affordable Progressive Campaign Software.

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Contributing Editor: Crisitunity

SSP's Twitter Feed

SSP on Facebook

SSP's Frappr Map

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

Subscribe to SSP's RSS feed: Subscribe via FeedBurner

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

Partisan Voting Index

House Open Seat Watch

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

2010 Political Calendar

SSP Race Ratings

Senate Race Ratings

Gubernatorial Race Ratings

House Vulnerability Index

Blogroll

Daily Kos
DemConWatch
DLCC Blog
Five Thirty Eight
From The Roots (DSCC)
Hotline On Call
Kicking Ass (DNC)
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Project 2010 (DGA)
The Next Hurrah
Senate Guru
The Stakeholder (DCCC)
The Thicket (NCSL)
Powered by: SoapBlox