Premium Sponsor

Featured Sponsor

Our Sponsors

Ad Networks

Buy an ad on all of the top liberal blogs with just one click.

Site Stats

CA-Sen: Boxer Has 9-Point Edge Against Arnold

by: Crisitunity

Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 6:40 PM EST

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (1/5-7, likely voters):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 49
Arnold Schwarzenegger (R): 40
(MoE: ±4%)

First, here's the bad news: Barbara Boxer is under the 50% mark that represents relative safety for an incumbent. The rest of the story is pretty good: that's against Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is the best-known and probably most popular Republican in California, a guy who many people have feared would convincingly defeat Boxer or at least turn this expensive blue-state seat into a top-tier tossup.

And that presumes that Schwarzenegger even runs, which may not be likely at this point, as his popularity (which enjoyed a resurgence just in time for his re-election in 2006) seems to be waning again. The same sample gives him 42/51 favorable/unfavorable ratings (note that almost everyone in the state has an opinion, meaning he'd have to start changing minds instead of just winning over undecideds).

Californians aren't that red-hot about Boxer either (she has a lukewarm 48/46 favorable/unfavorable). But if Arnold says 'hasta la vista' to electoral politics, with the other potentially strong statewide California Republicans (Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman) eyeing the governor's seat, and with probably none of the GOP House members willing to give up their safe seats on a fool's errand, it's possible she might only draw second- (or third-) tier opposition again.

Crisitunity :: CA-Sen: Boxer Has 9-Point Edge Against Arnold

Tags: CA-Sen, Polls, Barbara Boxer, Arnold Schwarzenegger, (All Tags)

Print Friendly View

Send As Email

CA-Sen: Boxer Has 9-Point Edge Against Arnold | 12 comments

Arnold

is like a yo-yo in terms of popularity; I thought he was toast in 2005, but he turned that around in record time.

I don't think he's likely to run, though (also, I want another "Terminator" movie).

by: SC @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 17:43:27 PM CST

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

His unpopularity this time around is different.

When his popularity fell from the 60s to the 30s in 2005, that was because of a fallout of liberal/Democratic support. Conservatives/Republicans were still with him, and he won in 2006 because he was able to attract Independents and some moderate Dems. This time, however, the bottom has fallen out of his approvals with Republicans now strongly disliking him after the latest budget fiasco which resulted in some tax increases. It is unlikely he can recover from that fallout. Republicans who used to see him as a savior to their party back in 03 and 04 now see him as just another Marxist who would not be much different than Boxer.

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

by: californianintexas @ Thu Mar 26, 2009 at 18:37:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Even if Arnold runs (which I doubt he will)

it would be extremely hard for him to win the primary. The California Republican Party is to the right of the national party, there's no way they would accept an anti-prop 8, pro-choice, and on occasion pro-tax candidate like Schwarzenegger.

by: Kanamit @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 17:51:52 PM CST

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Normally I would say this looks similar to the Hodes/Gregg numbers below

If Gregg is vulnerable with those numbers then so should Boxer be with similar numbers. But yeah this is Arnold we are talking about. I would honestly be expecting him to be doing better than this. Very encouraging.

by: conspiracy @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 17:57:53 PM CST

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Hodes not as good as a campaigner as Arnold...

He's been going through a hard time with the budget and not being able to move Republicans. He is a very appealing candidate for the Republicans because he can say that he wants to work across the aisle and that is what California wants. Boxer is a bit too liberal (I know, I know) for California, and Arnold is in a good position to take advantage of that.

by: peebles @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 12:42:19 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Sorry To Interrupt

This riveting discussion, but this just came through the rumor mill regarding the Ohio Senate race.

If it's true, then the Dominoes will really begin the fall as the year progresses.

by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 18:25:08 PM CST

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

If Voinovich ditches

say hello to Senator Tim Ryan. They keep talking up this Portman fellow but I don't expect him to fare well anywhere outside of his very, very conservative base from his time in OH-02. Plus being a Bush cabinet member will hurt.

Obama hasn't even been inaugurated yet and they're already facing several Senate retirements.

I don't envy new NRSC chair John Cornyn right now. If Specter, Grassley, and Gregg also hang it up they will be in a state of panic. Bunning might also go, but in his case I'd rather face the incumbent.

by: skaje @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 18:31:39 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

I read that too

Makes me believe that Cornyn is cleaning house telling Senators if you're going to retire, do it now and do it early.

Still, Tim Ryan vs. Rob Protman . . . oh god that would be sweet.

by: trowaman @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 18:33:14 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

About what I'd expect

I think Boxer would beat Arnold, but it might be close. Probably something like a 53-47 or 54-46 win for Boxer. I suspect California would be less comfortable sending a Arnold to D.C. than they do Sacramento.

by: ChadInFL @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 21:32:31 PM CST

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Probably Not

Boxer has never really faced opposition, and that is the reason she has won. She is not known as a good campaigner and in fact is known as a bad one. Up against Arnold, she would have to play the grandmother card whenever he attacked.

Also consider that Steve Schmidt would be his campaign manager, and whatever you think about him because of McCain, he is good. He got Arnold's numbers up in 2005 and can do it again.

by: peebles @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 12:40:29 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

You honestly think he'll run?

I always thought LA Mayor was more likely.

by: conspiracy @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 14:11:21 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Couple of other possibilities

I worked for Antonio - he is running for governor.

However, that brings up an interesting point. Let's say that Boxer loses to Arnold or to Meg Whitman (who everyone assumes is running for governor, but let's just say) - then whoever loses the democratic nomination for governor would be in prime position to challenge in 2016 or to replace DiFi in 2012 or 2014 (can't remember which it is).

Basically, that means that Gavin Newsom and Antonio Villaraigosa are in the best position (assuming that Jerry Brown wins the nomination for governor) for the future.

by: peebles @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 14:55:02 PM CST

[ Parent ]