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MO-Sen: Talent and Robin Carnahan Likely to Run?

by: James L.

Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 2:06 PM EST


Benji Smith:

Two Republican operatives close to former Sen. Jim Talent say he is likely to run for the Missouri Senate seat of retiring Sen. Kit Bond (R-Mo.).

One Republican operative close to Talent said that he has been "itching to run" since losing to Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) in 2006, and is eager to make a political comeback.

Interesting. I'd love to see this loser get his ass handed to him for the second time. On the Democratic side of the bench, Smith writes that Robin Carnahan seems like a solid bet to run:

On the Democratic side, Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, daughter of the late Sen. Mel Carnahan, will likely be the nominee. One Democratic operative said she has already been preparing for a Senate campaign - even before Bond announced his retirement.

Carnahan won more than 1.74 million votes statewide in 2008 - more than any other statewide Democratic candidate in Missouri history.

I have to wonder if a Robin Carnahan candidacy would clear the Democratic field of all serious comers. At this point, I suspect it would.

Update: The National Review hears buzz that GOP Rep. Roy Blunt is also interested in the race.
James L. :: MO-Sen: Talent and Robin Carnahan Likely to Run?
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MO-Sen: Talent and Robin Carnahan Likely to Run? | 53 comments
Who is Benji Smith
and is he a reliable source? If Carnahan was going to get into the race before Bond decided to retire, then it seems likely she'd announce her candidacy in a short time.
I think that would be Ben Smith of the Politico... and yes, he would be a conventionally credible source

[ Parent ]
Thanks

[ Parent ]
Blunt?
Hasn't that name been tarnished statewide thanks to the younger Blunt's disasterous Gubernatorial term?  
Probably
But that kind of family taint didn't stop Cheeks Kilpatrick from winning the Democratic primary in her Michigan district despite the corruption around her son, former Detroit Mayor Kwane "Y'All's Boy" Kilpatrick.
[ Parent ]
I dunno
The Kilpatrick thing was big city machine politics at it's ugliest.  That type of thing is the norm for Chicago or Detroit, but not so much in a state like Missouri.  
[ Parent ]
Right
The Blunt factor is Missouri is pretty much based on people just not liking Matt Blunt for what he did as governor. I highly doubt that will affect Roy's chances were he to run for Senate.
[ Parent ]
I supported Kilpatrick
She was a very effective and good representative of her district. Her opponents were just blatant oppotunists, trying to hurt her becuase of her son. All she ever did was defend her son, and I'd expect that becuase blood runs thicker than water as the expression goes.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
CCK only won a plurality because her opponents split the protest vote.
...annnddddd on top of that, her son was indicted shortly after the primary. Had the election been a week later, she would have lost handily, multiple opponents or not.
[ Parent ]
Strictly speaking...
...wouldn't she be the daughter of the late GOVERNOR Mel Carnahan?

I'm in a nit-picky mood.

well
he beat Ashcroft for the senate seat after he died, so I guess it's not really incorrect.
[ Parent ]
Senator-elect could work
But yeah, you are right, he never was Senator, never sworn in.
[ Parent ]
Daughter
She would be the daughter of the late Governor Mel Carnahan and also the daughter of former US Senator Jean Carnahan.

That seems like a rare combonation.  Mom and Dad did good.

[ Parent ]
"That seems like a rare combonation. Mom and Dad did good."
I think Chelsea's got her beat.
[ Parent ]
Eh
How about Buck Humphrey. He almost was MN SoS, his daddy was MN Attorney General and failed Senate and Gubernatorial candidate Skip Humphry, his granddaddy was former Mayor, Senator, Vice President and Senator Hubert Humphrey and his grandma was Senator Buck Humphrey. Also his great-grandpa was mayor of Doland, North Dakota.

Not quite as impressive parents but a pretty long line.

[ Parent ]
her mother was appointed because her
father and brother died in a plane crash before the election. Still, her mother ran a good campaign in 2002, and she has twice been elected to an important office.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Russ Carnahan
Also brother of Russ Carnahan
[ Parent ]
Talent will be a strong competitor...
he barely lost in a very strong D year, he can't be discounted. Hopefully, a crowded primary for the GOP results and it gets nasty.

Has Carnahan held any office besides SOS?  I'm impressed with her vote total but big wins in lower ballot offices like that can be deceiving.  Has she got the goods?  Is she a solid campaigner and speaker?    

But he still lost...
...and as an incumbent, at that. Carnahan is just starting her second term as SoS, and I don't believe she held any major office before that.
[ Parent ]
Well Bond lost as an incumbent too.
In 1976 - and he came back to win elections for decades. 2006 was a very Democratic year, and I don't know that Talent narrowly losing then is a sign that he's done. I hope Carnahan wins, but I wouldn't dismiss Talent out of hand.
[ Parent ]
Two-time loser.
Talent also lost a bid for Gov. in 2000 against the trainwreck known as Bob Holden.  
[ Parent ]
She was in the State House, I believe...
She was in the State House, I believe, before she was elected SoS.
[ Parent ]
By the same token,
he barely won in a Republican year in 2002.
[ Parent ]
People say
she's the most naturally talented pol in the family, and in the Carnahan family that is saying a lot.  
[ Parent ]
I would love to see Talent enter the race
I want him to lose a second time. Blunt surprises me a bit (though even being a high ranking Republican member of the House today can't be all that much fun any more).

Your go-to source for great sarcasm
Didn't Blunt resign from the House Republican leadership?


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I thought he was still Whip
I know that Putnam resigned from the leadership (I've heard he wants to run statewide at some point) but I haven't heard anything about Blunt.

Of course, I could easily be wrong about that.

Your go-to source for great sarcasm

[ Parent ]
Nope
Eric Canton (Virginia) is Whip.
[ Parent ]
*Cantor
stupid spelling
[ Parent ]
Oh, yeah, that's right
Well, you may now consider me wrong :)

Your go-to source for great sarcasm
[ Parent ]
I'm loving this.
Three Republican Senators and three Republican house members to one Democratic Senator (Kaufman) so far.  
Bond, Martinez, and ? (... ah, Brownback)
And who retired from the House already?  Are you counting Peter King?  (starting to remember... all very R... Tiahrt, Wamp, and Putnam?)

I can't for the life of me see why one would retire this early.  Wait til the first 100 days are over at least.  One of the most significant legislative sessions in decades is about to begin, and you lame-duck yourself before it even starts?  What's so wrong with July, guys?

Actually, scratch that. I see now.  Martinez had to get out of the way for the sake of the GOP field, and Bond may be doing the same, though given the element of surprise in this announcement, he could have waited until July.  That would have given Robin Carnahan a head start on the GOP field though.

Brownback announcing a year ago, though, I do not understand.

Hagel retiring at all I do not understand.

[ Parent ]
Brownback's is a self-imposed term limit/gubernatorial run
NT

Your go-to source for great sarcasm
[ Parent ]
Putnam hasn't announced anything yet
But my guess is now that Jeb is out he will run for Senate.

I think Brownback announced he's retiring from the Senate so early because he was honoring his term-limit pledge, something rare among republicans.

[ Parent ]
I think that Hoekstra, not Putnam, is the third

[ Parent ]
Who's out
Fer sure, we have Jerry Moran, Wamp, and Pete Hoekstra in Michigan. Tiahrt hasn't announced anything yet, but he seems like he wants to run for Senate, too. Putnam appears to be looking for the exit, but again, nothing official there.

I think it's time for another House Open Seat Watch thread...

[ Parent ]
Sponsored by Queen
It wouldn't surprise me to see another 20 or 30 GOP retirees in the House and five or six in the Senate this cycle.  Sometimes it is hard to predict.  Age, close, elections, primary challenges and health can all play a role.  Look in the Washington Post for those who miss the most votes.  Most of them are departing.

Looking by region I could see the following leaving: MY-Peter King (most likely gone), John McHugh NJ-Chris Smith, Frank LoBiondo MD-Roscoe Bartlett (easier to beat at his age than a generic replacement) DE-Mike Castle MI-There are comstant runors it seems about Candy Miller trying for higher office IL-Judy Biggert is in her 70s and had an uncomfortably close call, Mark Kirk may try running for higher office  WI-Sensenbrenner and Petri are two of the most seniority laden GOPers around, both having been in Congress since the 1970s IA-if Grassley retired, Latham and King would be likely contenders for the seat MO-hope they start all running for Bond's seat but not likely.  Blunt seems most likely but Emmerson is probably the hardest to beat VA-Frank Wolf is getting on in years and the district is changing  NC-Everybody but Patrick McHenry is old.  The most likely retirees are Howard Coble and Sue Nyrick although Walter Jones is out of step with his state party. FL-Connie Mack seems likely to run for the Senate seat and Bill Young was first elected in 1970, the most senior Republican in the House and the state record-holder for most years served AZ- If McCain retired Franks and Flake would possubly duel it out, otherwise fuhgettaboutit AK -Don Young is plenty old enough but he'll have to be dragged out one way or another.  It wouldm't surprise me to see at least one CA Republican retire.  Jerry Lewis was rumored last cycle. Elton Gallegly got forced back in two years ago.  David Dreier, I think, woukd take a nore lucratuve offer.

Well, that's a start.

[ Parent ]
A few will have to be dragged kicking and screaming
I suspect Castle is going nowhere...he may just die in that seat, unfortunately.  I hope the same isn't true of Bill Young (FL), but it might be.  Sensenbrenner might be a lifer too, but the rest seem very plausible. And several would be natural pickups...King, Smith, LoBiondo, McHugh, Latham, Biggert, and some Californians if we're lucky.
[ Parent ]
Here's the Google Doc
of the Senators/Representatives who we know are going.

http://spreadsheets.google.com...

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

[ Parent ]
And likely KBH
Not official yet, but it also seems highly likely that Hutchison also retires  for another open R senatorial seat.
[ Parent ]
Speaking of Senate races
Ramsussen has a NY-SEN poll and it looks much better for Caroline than R2K's poll.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Caroline Kennedy (D)- 51
Peter King (R)- 33

Robin Carnahan's birthday
Carnahan was born the same day as Obama...August 4, 1961.

A fact, use it as you wish.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

Another retirement?
So says Matt Lewis

He's hearing rumors that Voinovich would retire.

70 seat majority here we come!

Hilarious
Screwed before they can even start recruiting challengers to Dem incumbents. Hopefully Grassley and Gregg are next.
[ Parent ]
Wouldn't that be funny
6 retirements by March?  
[ Parent ]
Indeed
What is also truly ridiculous is their top-targets at the moment look like being in states Obama on by 9 (CO), 12 (NV), and 25 points (NY and IL) respectively. I love it.
[ Parent ]
Obama won by...

[ Parent ]
Even if some on our side did retire
We'd still be in great shape.  The only seats where an incumbent retirement would really put our seat in jeopardy are ND (Dorgan) or Lincoln (AR), and neither seem to have any intention of retiring.  With all the GOP retirements so soon it's almost impossible for them to even break even in 2010 barring fantastic recruiting and a very anti-Dem year.
[ Parent ]
The concern is the candidate
From on the ground in Colorado, I can tell you that a lot of Democratic Party activists, myself included, are seriously scratching their heads at Gov. Ritter's replacement appointment.  I know Bennett won't automatically be the one to run in 2010, but incumbency has some advantage and unless he proves himself, a lot of us think he has nothing to run on and was a wasteful pick.  Reid in Nevada isn't in trouble...his spineless ass is just not beloved by the grassroots, but I suspect we'll vote for him anyway.
[ Parent ]
Former Governor candidates
Although Hulshof for one probably isn't a strong candidate, an interesting tidbit is that both Talent and McCaskill were their parties losing Gubernatorial nominees two years before winning election to the Senate. Also, Bond lost a Governor's race (though he won the next time) before being elected to the Senate. and Mel Carnahan, who was elected after being killed in a plane crash, also had an unsuccesful bid for Governor. That would leave Hulshof, Steelman and Talent for the R's, and Holden for the D's...
it's a classic rule in politics
if you JUST MISS winning a high profile seat - as Talent and McCaskill did, you are the obvious candidate for the next high profile seat.  if you have your ass handed to you - as hulshof did - then no one returns your phone calls.
[ Parent ]
Almost always the case
But don't be shocked if Tom Allen is Governor or Senator of Maine one day.  Probably Governor since there will be an open race in 2010.

Another FYI, Florida Governor Charlie Crist challenged Senator Bob Graham in 1998 and lost something is the area of 65-35%.  Didn't quite end his career.

[ Parent ]
For what it's worth
Charlie Cook moved Missouri to tossup for 2010, joining Florida (Open), Kentucky (Bunning) and Louisiana (Vitter) in that category.  Why Louisiana is there I have no idea.  I'd out that one an leans Rep at best, probably likely Rep.  
MO-Sen: Talent and Robin Carnahan Likely to Run? | 53 comments

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