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MO-Sen: Kit Bond Plans to Retire

by: Crisitunity

Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 12:14 PM EST


Big news out of the Show Me State: Christopher "Kit" Bond, senator since 1986, will not be running for re-election in 2010. This contradicts Bond's statements of even several months ago that he would seek a fifth term.

Previous polls had indicated this would be a competitive race even with Bond running for re-election (R2K recently saw only a 4-point edge for Bond against Secretary of State Robin Carnahan). But with an open seat... and with a whole bench full of Carnahans on our side and rather middling pickins on the GOP side... this suddenly moves up next to Florida on the 2010 senate watch list.

We recently discussed possible candidates in the Missouri recruitment thread. (bpfish's comment in that diary is pretty comprehensive, and definitely merits a read.) On the Dem side, as previously mentioned, Robin Carnahan probably tops most people's lists, but her brother, Rep. Russ Carnahan, could just as easily be the one. (The other Dem representatives are Lacy Clay and Emanuel Cleaver, African-Americans representing urban districts who are unlikely to make the jump to statewide, and Ike Skelton, who is in his 70s and unlikely to give up his Armed Services gavel.) Other possibilities include Auditor Susan Montee, and ex-state rep. Judy Baker, who just narrowly lost the House race in the conservative 9th District.

Tons of possibilities on the GOP side, starting with former governor Matt Blunt, who's young but may need more time than that to rehabilitate his image from his unsuccessful gubernatorial term. Representatives Sam Graves (who won convincingly in a should-have-been-competitive race), Jo Ann Emerson, and Todd Akin may all be eyeing the race. (The other GOP reps are Blaine Luetkemeyer, who's brand new, and Roy Blunt, who seems to be looking for an exit strategy.)

Ex-Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who lost the gubernatorial primary, may also be a possibility, as may be ex-Rep. Kenny Hulshof, although he may have lost the governor's race by too large a margin to be taken seriously any more. More remote possibilities include former senators Jim Talent and John Ashcroft (yes, John Ashcroft) coming back for another bite at the apple. Last but not least... don't rule out Brock Olivo. The 9th District was just too small a stage for a mind as expansive as his. (Discussion already underway in txobserver's diary.)
Crisitunity :: MO-Sen: Kit Bond Plans to Retire
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MO-Sen: Kit Bond Plans to Retire | 39 comments
Party time...
Excellent!
Indeed
It says everything about the state of the GOP when Dems hold 59 Senators and yet still the two seats most likely to change next time are Republicans.
[ Parent ]
Probably more than that
I'd probably put FL, KY, OH, PA, MO and NC all as morel ikely to flip than our current most vulnerable seat in Colorado.  Unless we see some surprise Dem retirements from the Senate by 2010 that year could realistically give Dems 65 seats in a neutral to favorable environment.
[ Parent ]
The Goal
should be 67, not 65 for 2010. If Sebelius runs in Kansas that will probably be ours to lose. Who knows what's going to happen in New Hampshire? A retirement could occur. Or, Gov. Lynch could run. That's eight right there. More opportunities may present themselves too.
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't call Sebelius the favorite
Not with the losing stretch of Dem Senate candidates in Kansas. But she can win certainly.
[ Parent ]
Who would
be the favorite then?
[ Parent ]
The KS GOP has some options
Now that Brownback is in the Governor's race it may clear their field and push some of their guys to run for Senate.  Thornburgh is one who would be a tough matchup for Sebelius.  I imagine there will be a brutal GOP primary for the KS Senate seat which will help Sebelius should she run.  Still I'd say our chances are about 50/50 if she runs.
[ Parent ]
You may be right
But with the financial advantage she's going to have over her oppenent, her approval numbers, and the fact that she's easily won a statewide race twice before if I were a betting person my money would be on Sebelius against whomever her opponent is.
[ Parent ]
The problem remains
The midwestern red states like Democratic Governors but not Senators.  Ben Nelson for example was an extremely popular Governor of Nebraska in the mid 90's, ran for an open Senate seat and lost somethign like 57-43% to Hagel.  It was only in 2000 that he broke through and won the other open seat barely (51-49%) against a very poor GOP candidate.

I think the same would be the case with Sebelius.  They love her as Governor, but she's going to have a much harder time convincing voters to send her to D.C. to caucus with the likes of Harry Reid and Ted Kennedy.

[ Parent ]
The Kansas GOP
Isn't there some serious infighting between the moderates and the conservatives for the GOP in Kansas?  If I remember right, that's one reason why Sebelius won in 2002.

[ Parent ]
Yes, very much so
It's the reason someone like Ryun lost in KS-02 and Jenkins won this year.  If memory serves me right Sebelius actually won by a surprisingly large margin, 52-43 or something like that in 2002.
[ Parent ]
Didn't Nelson run a legendarily bad campaign?
I heard that the Nelson campaign was truly dreadful. That said, I don't remember specifics and don't know if that was an assumption made up to excuse the loss.
[ Parent ]
Yes, supposedly it was
From what I understand Hagel ran a real grassroots campaign and Nelson, the heavy favorite early, took things for granted and didn't campaign hard.  I think even by election day it was still assuemd to be a tossup, with Nelson ending up losing a landslide.
[ Parent ]
The Hagel/Nelson election
surprised me, especially with Nelson being as conservative as he is to lose by 14%. I wonder if Hagel wasn't helped out a lot by Nelson's lack of campaigning plus 1996 being an election year, with 54% of Nebraskans voting for Dole (only Utah and Kansas voting more for Dole than Nebraska).
[ Parent ]
I dunno
Nelson did pull out a victory in the next Presidential election year to finally get into the Senate.  However it was a 51-49 win against a seriously poor GOP candidate.  Probably was Presidential year coattails that hurt Nelson in both 1996 and 2000.  In his off-year 2006 re-election he won a huge landslide.
[ Parent ]
Okay, so here's what usually happens...
For the past two cycles or so, we've won in Kansas on the strength of our candidates and because the favorite sport of the Kansas GOP seems to be cannibalism.  The extreme right social conservative wing puts up a scary crazy person and the moderate wing puts up someone slightly less frightening.  In all but the last race in KS-02, the extremist has prevailed in the deathmatch.  Lynn Jenkins survived and won in the other case.  So, Kansans out there, who are the candidates for the two wings of the GOP at the moment? Is Thornburgh the crazy wing or the business wing?
[ Parent ]
Tiahrt and Moran
As a former Kansan, that is my guess for the far-far right and far-right primary battle.
[ Parent ]
The Republican nominee
Whoever that may be. But only narrowly.
[ Parent ]
Favorite
I dunno... she won by 17% in 2006 over some guy without any really obvious defects who was seen as a sort of compromise between the KS GOP's conservative and moderate wings.  To steal some of Nate Silver's ideas, Kansans also might feel more comfortable "switching" her and Sam Brownback, since Brownback's retiring from the Senate and running for Governor.  Though it would definitely be hard-fought.
[ Parent ]
Yes, there are always darkhorse races
If Vitter gets primaried in LA it will help our candidate.  Other potential retirements that could throw races into tossups or better are McCain (AZ), Grassley (IA) and Gregg (NH).  I'm also curious to see if Murkowski gets a primary challenge in Alaska.
[ Parent ]
At the start of this cycle
There are a number of races that appear winnable. I say 67 because that would give us a working, presidential veto-proof majority. But, there are more than eight races right now that we can win if we get the breaks like we have the last two cycles.
And, in Oklahoma Gov. Henry won his re-election race with 66 percent of the vote in '06. A retirement there may give us the chance to pick up an open seat.
[ Parent ]
Also forgot about Texas
Can't discount an open-seat try there with Bill White and John Sharp in the race. Too many good opportunities to remember right now.
[ Parent ]
Don't forget...
Kay Bailey Hutchinson is likely to resign to focus on her gubernatorial run.
[ Parent ]
Our biggest vulnerability
to my mind is Illinois, which has a giant question mark over it.  It's certainly more favourable to Democrats in general than Colorado, but absolutely anything could happen there.
[ Parent ]
Well...
Assuming that Obama doesn't self-destruct, I think that some well-executed campaigning on his part for the Democratic nominee could work really well.  And I think that there's a quite large possibility that Burris will retire (he'll be 73 and possibly facing pressure from party leaders), or get primaried out if he doesn't.  From what I understand, the GOP bench is awful as well.
[ Parent ]
Mark Kirk
would be a strong candidate for them, though if it was a general election he'd have to give up his House seat, so whether or not he ran would depend on how great his chances of success looked.
[ Parent ]
We'll see
Nearly two years is a long time and Illinois is still a blue state.  Even if Obama has a rocky first few years he'll likely still be popular enough to campaign for and help any Dem hold the Illinois Senate seat.  Unless this scandel gets seriously drawn-out I don't see much long-term effect.
[ Parent ]
I think it surpasses Florida
given the benches in the two states. For now this is our most likely takeover opportunity with Robin Carnahan the favorite if she jumps in.
Yep....Excellent day.
Yes, slightly better
As far as open seats go I'd put MO slightly ahead of Florida just because I think we have a better bench of statewide candidates in MO.  Kansas will be right up there only if Sebelius runs.
[ Parent ]
Very Good News!

Thanking you!
:)
[ Parent ]
Almost forgot about that :)
It's been so long since it was every week that a GOPer would announce his/her retirement. Perhaps i'll return to my role of posting that video after every retirement?
[ Parent ]
How about Jeff Smith?
He's only a State Senator, but would appear not to mind an uphill primary campaign.

That said, if Russ Carnahan runs then I could see him making another go at MO-3 instead.

the subject of
the documentary Can Mr.Smith Get to Washington Anymore? http://www.mrsmithmovie.com/
Seen it? Interesting film.

Needs way more seasoning before considering the Senate.
Trying for MO-03 again? Possibly, if it becomes an open seat again.

[ Parent ]
Has Robin started her Committee Yet?:)
Why would she not run?  And if she wants to, is there any reason to have a discussion on the democratic side?  And please don't give me that good government - people should work for seats and anyone should have a chance crap.  This is a very tough GOP state (hell, McCain won it in '08 even when the Obama camp invested heavily there).

I do struggle a little bit with dynasties.  Our strongest candidates in NY (AG Cuomo), Del (AG Biden), and MO (Sec of State Carnahan) are all sons/daughters and wouldn't be there if not for their names, but it seems that they've proven themselves in their own runs for statewide office, much like Evan Bayh did.  And while they had better Rolodexes the day they were born than I will ever have, they still have to work the phone hard to get where they are.

The notable exception to this is AG Humphrey in MN, who even though he won a lot of races easily as AG was a boob who had struggled to string two sentences together throughout his career, and ended up bombing spectacularly in prime time when he lost for Governor in '98 with 28% of the vote.  So my question is this for our MO/DE/NY readers.  Are the younger Carnahans, Bidens, and Cuomos strong speakers who project confidence, intelligence and integrity?  If so, I'm all for them.

Cuomo lost a primary for governor in 2002 IIRC
Other than that I don't know of Beau or Carnahan losing a race.  
[ Parent ]
I think Beau came close to losing in 2006
Still, he hasn't slipped up since, so we can probably excuse that slip-up.
[ Parent ]
He won by five points
52-47.  In fairness, he had a pretty good opponent.
[ Parent ]
Also people who lost at a lower level
like Baker or others, don't belong in the top tier.
MO-Sen: Kit Bond Plans to Retire | 39 comments

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