Chet Edwards?

Chet seems like the type of Democrat that could win Texas.  I don't know if he's ever considered this race, but he would do reasonably well.  However, if he did jump in, we would be hard pressed to keep his district.

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 09:21:00 AM CST

I don't like to cede races

But there's no sense in having Edwards be a sacrificial lamb against KBH.  Sorry, but a fantastic sattewide candidate like Edwards would lose this one and lose big.  He'd priobably have a 45% cap against KBH.  He's better off sticking with his house seat for a few more cycles before testing the statewide waters.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 09:38:54 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Chet vs Perry?

If Perry was to win the GOP nomination, how would Chet fare against Perry?

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 10:03:00 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Chet by a mile.

Particularly after Perry smears Kaybe sufficiently to beat her.

I think any serious Dem (not Sanchez) could take Perry at this point.

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by: omarka @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 10:42:39 AM CST

[ Parent ]

That's a big "if"

I just don't see Perry beating her in a primary.  The guy didn't even break 40% in his last election in 2006.

If things worked out like you said and Perry beat Kay is a brutal primary Chet would have a chance, though even in that circumstance it's 50/50 at best.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 10:52:56 AM CST

[ Parent ]

2010

While Perry beating KBH seemed like a pipe dream a few weeks ago, Straus becoming House Speaker might galvanize the social conservatives in the state and make them determined to defeat the Country Club Republicans in the 2010 primary - meaning KBH might have a tougher fight on her hands w/ an energized Perry/Craddick coalition.  I still think she'll pull through, but it'll be interesting to see the conservative base's reaction to having a pro-choice, Jewish, 1.7-term speaker elected by the Democratic Caucus, they could really turn on KBH even harder than they were planning.

I don't think there's any way Chet makes this race, though.  I wish some contenders for Lt. Gov would step up, that position interests me more and wouldn't have to deal w/ a likely KBH match-up.

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by: Anesthetic @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 11:05:16 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Lt. Governor

Lt Gov is a very strong position in Texas, heading the Senate.  Unlike some states, it's also an elected position.  Not only would it be great in and of itself to have a good official as Lt Gov, but it's also a fairly high profile position and makes a great platform for higher office.  Same thing for Attorney General.  There are so many Reps in Texas that they basically have zero name recognition statewide, even relatively senior Reps like Chet Edwards is really unknown statewide.

If it's KBH for Governor, I do not much like our chances.  I'd prefer to consentrate on electing someone to Lt Gov or AG.  Who would be good candidates?

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by: sicembears @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 13:29:22 PM CST

[ Parent ]

lt. gov

I've always considered state senator Leticia Van de Putte to be an attractive candidate for Lieutenant Governor, however when she came out last month stating she is considering the US Senate race, she stated that one reason for a federal over statewide race was the financial factor and that she would be able to compete in a federal race w/ limits, but not in a statewide one where there are no limits whatsoever and Tx GOPers can raise loads.  So that might mean she would stay out of the Lt. Gov race, but I wish she wouldn't and hope she could be convinced in the next year to run for it.  On their side, AG Greg Abbott likely runs for Lt. Gov (although Cornyn is lobbying him hard to run for KBH's seat), he might even run for the seat against Dewhurst, if need be.

For AG, there seem to be lots of folks.  I've read state rep Patrick Rose, state senator Eliot Shapleigh and 06 Senate candidate Barbara Ann Radnofsky are all interested, but that might have changed.  For the GOP, Congressman McCaul is supposedly one of those interested in running for AG.

I am much more interested in Lt. Gov, AG and Comptroller, as well as taking the House and KBH's seat, maybe the emergence of a decent candidate will heighten my interest in the race.

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by: Anesthetic @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 13:46:43 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I agree that Perry's not likely to win the primary.

But if he does, and we put up a decent candidate, I think we have a reasonable shot at winning.  If the candidate is of a White, Sharp, Edwards caliber, I we have the advantage.

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by: omarka @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 11:19:36 AM CST

[ Parent ]

yes

I agree with you that we would actually have the advantage against Perry if we had one of our top candidates, but I don't see any of them jumping into race knowing that it's likely (at this point in time) that KBH would be the opponent.

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by: Anesthetic @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 11:38:17 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I'd want to see the polls

I'm in Texas and, needless to say, don't like Perry much.  I also think KBH would beat him in a primary.  But, as much as I'd like to believe it, I'm still skeptical that we beat Perry in the general if he somehow got past KBH.  We're still losing by about 10 points when a generic D faces a generic R statewide.  Maybe worse in an off-year election.  Yes, time is on our side and Perry is not popular, but that's still a big hill to climb.  Maybe I'm just too cynical after having lost so many races here over the last 15 years, but I need some polling to convince me that we're the favorites, or even tied.

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by: sicembears @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 13:22:57 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Let's See . . .

I've been waiting for this thread :-)

Bill White is the best person to run for anything in Texas, period. However, a special election for a federal office, which is what he's running for now, I dunno.

Besides him, our bench consists of:

US Reps
Chet Edwards - The guy has the profile to win, but we would lose his house seat in the process unless it is changed in 2012 to be a "safe" one.
Max Sandlin - Kicked out in 2004 by the gerrymander. May be satisfied lobbying and having wife Stephanie Herseth do the government work in Washington
Jim Turner - East Texas base and left with lots of cash. An opportunity may be emerging soon for someone like him. A 2010 run for governor or Lt. Governor may be good for him.

State Senators
Kirk Watson - Yeah, he screwed up on Hardball during the primary, but he was chairman of the state convention, is personable, and is loaded. Austin Based.
Wendy Davis - Just got in this November, was on Fort Worth city council beforehand. Fort Worth based. BTW, I interned for Wendy last Spring, so yes I am biased, but she's be a great Rep. Best way to describe her "One of the guys."
Letticia Van DePutte - More liberal and in your face than the rest. She can run statewide, but I worry if we overplay our hands with her. San Antonio Based.

State Reps.
Mark Strama - Won in 2004 in a gerrymandered district no dem was supposed to win. Solid progressive, early Obama supporter, has the "it" factor. Austin Based.
Rafael Anchia - Good Leadership skills. Texas Monthly really likes him. Dallas Based.
Craig Eiland - Good old fashioned populist/moderate. Well Respected. Galveston based.
Kirk England - Elected in 2006 Special as a Republican, switched to a Democrat September 2007 bashing Republicans for not respecting the rights of constituents. This is the fastest part of the state from Republican to Democrat. East Dallas base.
Donna Howard - Won a 2006 Special (on Valentines day). Great education leader in the house. Great charisma. Austin base.
Patrick Rose - About as conservative as they come, but he has shifted left as time went on (as has his district). Known as a consensus builder. Based South of Austin, Hayes county (which had a dem sweep in 2006).
Scott Hochberg - Education finance leader in the House, was thinking about running for the SD-17 special but passed on it cause he'd have to lose his House seat. District is almost entirely apartments. Houston based.

Others
Rick Noriega - Great candidate, no statewide organization, more the fault of the state party than his. He will return soon enough, possibly after winning a Harris County office (County judge? District Attorney)
Adrian Garcia - While Obama and most judicial candidates in Harris were pulling 51% in Harris county Sheriff Garcia was leaving them in the dust with 57% against incumbent Tommy Thompson. Garcia was on Houston City Council before hand.
Hank Gilbert - 2006 candidate for Agriculture Commissioner and is running again in 2010. Very similar to Peter Goldmark in Washington.
Joe Jaworski - Ran for State Senate in district 11 this year, Hurricane Ike ruined his chances of making it close, but would have lost anyways, however that is more due to the district than him. He's still a bit green, but he has the potential someday. Grandson of Watergate prosecutor Leon Jaworski. Former Galveston city councilman, Galveston based.

A Quick Word on Mayors
Dallas has a Republican Mayor and Mike Montcrief (Fort Worth) is too old to go state wide. Austin, San Antonio, and Houston all have open mayor races this year. No one takes Austin mayors seriously in the current electoral make up, Julian Castro should win San Antonio and may be good to go around 2018 but he is way to liberal for Texas today, and whoever wins Houston should be a good opportunity in a few years (NOTE: Rumor is  City Controller Anise Parker is running and I believe she is an open lesbian, that may be Councilwoman Sue Lovell I forget which, but if it is Parker and I am right, that may be an issue statewide, then again Linda Ketner showed us how that did not matter in SC-1 this year).

People Who Will Want to Run but Shouldn't
US Rep. Henry Cuellar - No one in the know likes him.
Fmr. US Rep. Chris Bell - It's time to disappear into private practice for several years, maybe in 6-8 years he can return.
Gene Kelly - THE DANCER IS DEAD!
Barbara Radnofsky - 2006 US Senate Nominee - Sock puppet tv ads are not good, Barbara is supposably already running for Attorney General already.
David Van Os - 2006 Nominee for Attorney General. Ran for Party Chairman at the 2008 convention as the populist candidate. Wanted to focus on statewide for Obama rather than trying to take control of urban centers, odd claim that we didn't need to build the party and should go for broke instead.

Did I flesh this out enough for all of you? Any other questions?

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by: trowaman @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 13:46:45 PM CST

land comm

Do you see us putting up anyone of standing for Land Commissioner?  What about state rep. Heflin?  Then again, we might lose his district, but everyone thought we'd lose it when Pete Laney called it a day and Heflin has survived a couple of cycles.

I think Kirk Watson would be great, I really like him.  Although, like you mentioned, being mayor of Austin isn't the best resume item for a statewide race.

What do you see Wendy Davis going for?  I agree that she is definitely one of our rising stars.  And I'd hope Anchia to be the mayor of Dallas, soon enough.

I like Eiland.  He seems pretty respected, I wonder if he'd run statewide?  I remember reading earlier last year that, if the Dems took the House, he'd be a top contender for Speaker.

You think either White or Sharp will switch races?  If she doesn't vacate the seat, a loss to her for governor would at least garner someone a lot of statewide name ID to run for the seat in 2012.

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by: Anesthetic @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 14:24:53 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Uhm

No clue on Heflin, seems more like a guy who likes it in the House and wants to stay there.

Land Commissioner - Texas is so big and we have so many statewide offices, I don't think anyone outside of political animals even know Jerry Paterson is the current Land Commissioner. I'd like to hear some words from California residents, do the regular folks know most of your satewides or do they just know Ahnold, Boxer and Feinstein?

Wendy - Either a lower level statewide office; Comptroller may be good, or US Senate.

Mayor Anchia? Sounds good to me, he'd be great statewide after 2 terms as mayor. He has to beat the incumbent first though.

I'm just putting Eiland's name out there cause I like him. No idea if he'd take it.

Don't think White or Sharp is planning on switching.

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by: trowaman @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 16:12:02 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Californian here

Well, most people also know Jerry Brown who is Attorney General. He has been around long enough people just know him.

Other than that, secondary offices are not necessarily well-known but still have often a higher profile than TX Land Com., if only by virtue of almost all of them fancying themselves as future Governors.

Case in point: Steve Poizner, the Republican Insurance Com. is not really a household name but certainly will be soon enough once the 2010 gets underway.

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by: benjaminomeara @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 21:15:10 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I'm not sure what to make of TX special elections

Sometimes our side's turnout is great - Ciro Rodriguez crushing Bonilla in TX-23 in December 2006, and sometimes it's very bad - Chris Bell getting crushed in the 2008 special run-off in the state Senate race.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 15:40:42 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Perry Screwed up on Ciro

He had the special on a Mexican holiday (everyone would be at home and forget!) Except the holiday involved church service . . . where the voting machines were.

Btw, Obama won Ciro's district, ~50.8%. Rep. Soloman Ortiz is the only dem who represents a district McCain won in Texas.

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by: trowaman @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 16:04:58 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Ahh, ok

I knew there had to be some reason unique reason for Ciro's unexpected 8 point win when SUSA had him down 6 or 8 in their final polls.  I bet Bonilla hates Perry for that one.  He was supposed to be one of the GOP's rising stars.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 16:53:51 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Umm... Chet?

I'm fairly certain McCain won TX-17!  Probably by 30 or so points.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 16:54:36 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Point

McCain won TX-17 by a 67%-32% margin, this is narrowed from the 70-30 Bush margin in 2004. This district is not moving either way. The dem growth is south of Chet's district along I-35

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by: trowaman @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 17:07:02 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Well I would hope Obama outperformed Kerry

Considering this is Bush's home district and all.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 21:49:46 PM CST

[ Parent ]