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OR-Gov: Statewide Recruitment Thread

by: James L.

Thu Dec 18, 2008 at 12:55 PM EST


Democrat Ted Kulongowski is term-limited out of the Oregon governor's office in 2010. Who would you like to see run in his place? And who will step up for the GOP?
James L. :: OR-Gov: Statewide Recruitment Thread
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OR-Gov: Statewide Recruitment Thread | 36 comments
Kitzhaber?
From what I understand former Governor Kitzhaber is considering it.  He was popular in the past and I'm sure he'd love governing with a new solidly democratic state legislature to work with.
Yep
That's what I've heard, that he wants to do it again. Also hearing about DeFazio, which is a surprise since he finally has his gavel in the House, but he's 62 and may want 8 years as gov as his capstone. I don't know what happens if both Kitz and the Faz want it. Maybe they'd work something out, or it would be a battle royale the likes we've never seen in Oregon, as they're probably the state's two most popular politicians. If for some reason neither of them do it, it probably falls to either Kate Brown or Ben Westlund, both of whom were state senators until this election and are also both pretty popular, but I think they went for lower office this year (SoS and Treasurer, respectively) because they knew that one of the bigger fish would be going for governor in 2010.

On the GOP side, all the speculation falls on Greg Walden, but that might have changed now that Gordon Smith is looking for work, and Walden would probably defer to him. Jason Atkinson (young up-and-coming state senator) would probably be their third choice, but he's way too conservative to win statewide. Even Walden would be a long shot. And frankly Smith would be at a major disadvantage against Kitz or Faz, although he still retains enough faux-moderate cred to make it competitive.

[ Parent ]
If I were Gordon Smith, I'd run on the GOP side.
Running a pea factory or running a state? Hmmm. Oregon, like Washington state, is due for a Republican Governor.
"Due"?
You might remind the voters of Washington that we are "due for a Republican Governor" since we just reelected our Democratic Governor by like 8 percent.
[ Parent ]
Oh cmon with the faux outrage.
I didnt mean it like that. I was just referring to the long string of Dem Gov's in the states.
[ Parent ]
Like
MN is due for a DFL governor!!!  COME ON!!!  
[ Parent ]
he won't win, especially if
Kitzhaber runs, which looks likely. If not, State Senator Vicki Walker and Jim Hill are viable candidates.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Best statewide recruitment thread ever!
Since we currently control every statewide office, both Senate seats, both chambers of the legislature, and 4 of 5 congressional districts.  Oh, and Obama carried the state by sixteen points.

Best "swing state" ever.

1994! 1994!! 1994!!!

[ Parent ]
DeFazio to run?
Rumors have it that Rep. Peter DeFazio (OR-4) is planning to run, which would almost certainly clear the field on the Dem side and probably make Republicans think twice about a run too. State Senator Jason Atkinson (R-Central Point), who finished 3rd in the 2006 R primary isn't up for re-election until 2012 so he will probably take a free shot. Against anyone else, he might be the sort of young energetic type who could perhaps breathe life onto the moribund Oregon GOP, but against DeFazio, he'll just get smoked.
What about Kate Brown?
Lovin' me the idea of a bisexual governor.
Oregon's elections cleaner than most
Less nefarious at the SoS office, so I wouldn't mind, but another chance at a Republican SoS isn't my idea of fun.  Still, I do love me some Kate Brown.
[ Parent ]
Kate was quite competent as state Sen majority leader
And I think SoS is a logical stepping stone for her to run in 2010.
[ Parent ]
The republican Rep
I forget his name, but isn't Oregon's only republican congressman involved in some sort of scandel?  Think I heard somethign about it awhile back.
In any case
Walden would get destroyed in the other four congressional districts.  Would be like Doc Hastings running for governor of Washington.
[ Parent ]
Or
Cathy McMorris-Rogers running for WA Governor againist someone like Jim McDermott or Jay Inslee. It wouldn't be pretty.
[ Parent ]
Inslee would win that one easily
McDermott would probably be a tossup.
[ Parent ]
Yep
I'm thinking that might be the fight of McDermott's life, and very possibly lean R.  Of course, if that ever happened, I might move from Colorado, delay the dissertation, and give every bit of blood, sweat, and tears I have to the guy's victory.
[ Parent ]
I like the guy
He's just said and done so many off-the-wall things it would make getting elected even in a left-leaning state like Washington very hard.  Sometimes I think the guy needs a shrink of his own.  lol
[ Parent ]
Off-the-wall?
Maybe there have been unconventional things he's said or done, but he's been presciently right a whole hell of lot more often than many others.  Like pointing out how the threat-level chart is complete bulls**t and a total psychological fear tactic.  Gotta admire the man's cojones, especially when he's right.
[ Parent ]
Greg Walden
Yeah, he's got a little mini-scandal going on, but nothing that will likely cause him any problems in his current district (i.e. not big enough to get a top tier primary challenger or for a Dem to win the blood-red seat). It might be enough to make him think twice about running statewide though. Frankly, he's like Gordon Smith without the faux-moderate credentials, so I wouldn't like his chances. Plus, he'd have to give up his House seat to run.

I think former Sen. Smith or St. Sen. Atkinson are the most likely R candidates.

[ Parent ]
Head of audit
Walden was the head of the audit committee for the NRCC while their accountant stole around a million bucks from them.  It doesn't look like he's suited for executive office.
[ Parent ]
Kate Brown would be a ideal candidate
but she just got elected SoS so probably not happening.

I'd love to see a return of Kitzhaber.

Has that happened?
How many times has a former Gov. returned to his post after leaving?  Seems pretty rare.
[ Parent ]
Cecil Underwood (WV) is the first name to come to mind.
He was the youngest governor in West Virginia history when elected in 1957 and the oldest governor West Virginia history when he was elected for a second term in 1997.
[ Parent ]
Wallace, Jimmy Davis
Many states have had them.  George Wallace came back twice in AL, one planned (after he installed wife Lurleen), one unplanned.  Songwriter-singer Jimmy Davis ("You Are My Sunshine") was Governor from 1940-44 and 1960-64. Earl K. Long also was Governor three times during this period with intervening terms in between and Edwin Edwards did it later. Horatio Seymour and the Clintons (George and DeWitt) pulled the trick in New York back in the 1800s. Joel Parker in NJ did it in the 1800s.  Robert Pattison and Gifford Pinchot managed to be re-elected in PA with intervening terms. California, otoh, did not have one of these. Neither did Michigan.

If Kitzhaber does it, he will be the first Governor in Oregon history to accomplish the feat.

I didn't check the other 42 states.

[ Parent ]
Jerry Brown may possibly run for CA-Gov again in '10.
The term limits do not apply to his 1975-1983 governorship since we passed the term limits in 1990, so he is eligible to run again, and he is probably the favorite to win unless DiFi steps in.

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)
[ Parent ]
Didn't Bill Clinton
Win a Govenor's race, lose his re-election, and then come back to win and serve as Gov for a bunch more terms?  Of course that is a lot closer together in point of time then this would be, but Kibitzer didn't lose either so...
[ Parent ]
Yes, so did Dukakis
Clinton won his first term and then was defeated before winning a bunch.  Dukakis lost a primary to Ed King and then bounced back.

Carter ran third in a primary for Governor.

Lyndon Johnson lost a special election for the US Senat in 1941.

Obama, of course, lost to Bobby Rush for Conress.

John Kerry not only lost a general election for Congress in 1972 but he did it in a district won by George McGovern.

Looks like only Gore, who lost a bid for the Presidential nomination in 1988 came away unscarred.

[ Parent ]
Edwin Edwards
Didn't he do it like 4 times back when LA had 1-term consecutive limits?
[ Parent ]
This Is How Things Show Go Here....
Earl Blumenauer runs for Governor against either Greg Walden or Gordon Smith. His Portland-based open House seat will go to Steve Novick, the guy who lost to Jeff Merkley in the Senate primary. Novick will get some House experience before running for Senate again, in 2016 maybe if Ron Wyden retires after winning reelection in the upcoming cycle.
Now that you've brought up his name,
would Novick possibly run in the primary for Gov?
[ Parent ]
Ehh
We have a deep bench of experienced pols in Oregon.  Running for Governor sounds a little much with all the other possibilities we have there.  I want to see Novick get into elected office, but Governor sounds a little too high for him right now.
[ Parent ]
I don't see the executive experience
The reason Novick got traction (Merkley's slip-ups aside) is that he very clearly wanted to pick a fight with Republicans and our more cowardly Democrats in Congress.

Whereas in Oregon, Democrats are in the ascendant and Sizemore is in jail. What would Novick have to run against?

That's not to say I don't think he could do it. It's just that it seems to me that legislative work is more his style.

[ Parent ]
My two cents, as someone with connections to Oregon
Kitz and DeFazio are both hard-hitting Western populists in the Schweitzer vein who appeal to voters all across the spectrum. Either of them entering the race would clear the Democratic field, and probably means they win by default. Of the two, Kitz has higher name rec, but most Oregonians who aren't familiar with DeFazio would like him. Kitzhaber's also been busy with the Archimedes Project since he left office. He's kept rumbling about being interested in his old job, but if DeFazio jumps in, Kitz may just leave it to him and keep doing what he's already doing. Personally, I'd like to see DeFazio Governor and Kitzhaber Secretary of Health and Human Services. Either would be a much better governor than Ted "Goldschmidt Mafia" Kulongoski.

On the GOP side, Smith has the nomination if he wants it, as he's got the statewide name rec and donor network in place already. Nobody who didn't vote for Smith this year will vote for him in 2010, however, and the fringes will be grumbling as always, but Smith is still powerful enough that he'll probably still clear the field. If Smith decides not to run, it'll be a messy three-way primary like 2002's, between Walden (or some other weak corporate scumbag like Mike Ericson), Atkinson (crazy paleocon), and Mannix (crazy fundie) or one of his acolytes. This would be very, very fun to watch, and I hope it happens, but Smith's ego might be too big to allow it. (On the other hand, Smith might want to stick around to challenge Merkley in 2014, or simply move to Utah's much more favorable constituency and wait for either of their geezer senators to retire. Stranger things can happen when you're worth $65 million and are a member of a major political family.)  

more...
Kitz may be thinking about running, but here's saying he puts off his decision too long. DeFazio declares and there's no way Kitz challenges. Defazio clears the Dem field and cruises over whoever the GOP nominates (probably a sacrificial lamb unless Atkinson or someone else just tries to build name rec for a future run).

If, by some chance, neither DeFazio nor Kitz runs, Dems underestimate Atkinson at their own risk. Oregonians have a long history of being okay with otherwise moderate paleocons and Atkinson has the kind of youthful energy and exuberance that could easily trump the boring (Hill) or controversial (Walker). Smith and/or Walden could also suddenly become viable in the absence of a strong Dem contender, but I would like Atkinson to pull of the upset in the GOP primary against either of these (and especially both) should he decide to run.

OR-Gov: Statewide Recruitment Thread | 36 comments

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