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OH-Gov, OH-Sen: Statewide Recruitment Thread

by: James L.

Tue Dec 16, 2008 at 10:00 AM EST


Whether or not GOP Sen. George Voinovich actually runs for another term in 2010 remains to be seen, but you can bet that Democrats will attempt to mount a major challenge for his seat that year -- especially with Voiny running neck-and-neck with "Generic D" in the latest polling. Who is your preferred candidate for the task?

On the gubernatorial side of the equation, Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland has earned positive reviews during his first term so far, but the GOP probably won't cede this race by any means. Who do you imagine will step up for Team Red?

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James L. :: OH-Gov, OH-Sen: Statewide Recruitment Thread
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OH-Gov, OH-Sen: Statewide Recruitment Thread | 58 comments
Ohio 2010
There seem to be many well-known republicans mentioned as challengers to Strickland.  I don't quite understand that considering his consistently solid approvals.  Kasich and Portman are just two named often mentioned.  The feeling I get is that one or more of the well-known conservative republicans will shift to the Senate race and run regardless of whether Vionovich runs or retires.  Voinovich is hates by conservatives anyway, so I doubt he'd be hard to primary.

Even if Strickland draws a well-known challenger I'm not too worried about him surviving.

On the Dem Senate front it really should be Tim Ryan.  He's young, a good fit for Ohio statewide and his congressional seat may disappear in 2012 anyway.  

Ryan's Seat
Not sure about Ohio's redistricting process but Democrats should control 2 out of 3 branches of government at time of redistricting.

Even if Ohio loses a seat could Ryan's seat not be protected?

[ Parent ]
It could be
But it takes all 3 branches for effective control.  Repubs have solid control of the state Senate.  If Ohio loses 2 seats, which it looks like will happen, split control of redistricting would probably be more likely to eliminate 1 Dem and 1 Rep seat.
[ Parent ]
Redistricting...
Is controlled by a state board for redistiricting.

5 members-

Right now its

1 guaranteed D, 1 Guaranteed R

Governor (Strickland D)
Sec. of St. (Brunner D)
Auditor (Taylor R)

[ Parent ]
Is that true
of Congressional seats? I thought it was just for the state legislature.  
[ Parent ]
No it's not true
The panel only draws leguslative districts.  The state legislature draws the congressional map, which is almost certain to mean a compromise map.
[ Parent ]
That board draws legislative lines
The legislature still has control over congressional redistricting.
[ Parent ]
I took a long look at Ohio redistricting...
...last night, trying to figure out which districts would be eliminated. One of the main points to understand is that it is very possible that Ohio could lose TWO seats after the next census.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp...

As the post above mine mentions, right now we are probably favored to control re-districting in two years, but it is absolutely essential that we hold on to the Governor and Secretary of State positions.

We should understand that, thanks to gerrymandering, six Congressman live within about an hour's drive of each other in SW Ohio: Driehaus, Schmidt, Boehner, Turner, Jordan, and Austria. I believe that one of the districts to go will be in the SW. The other will probably have to be in the NE, and unless we can figure out a way to box out LaTourette in OH-14 (something that may not be easy to do, to create a D-favorable district that extends all the way into Ashtabula County), it will probably be some permutation that extends Ryan's district a bit further into Akron and eliminates one of the districts that surrounds Akron-Canton.

Obviously, each of the 16 remaining districts will have to get a little bigger.

The other point to be made is that both Jean Schmidt and Steve Driehaus live in Hamilton County, and it may be hard to re-draw a "Hamilton County"-based District 1 that does not put Schmidt and Driehaus in the same district. By the same token, both Mary Jo Kilroy and Pat Tiberi live in Franklin County. If we try to get Kilroy a more favorable district that includes more of Columbus and less of the hinterlands, chances are we might group her into the same district as Tiberi.

All of this is speculation, but I'm just trying to read the tea leaves here.

[ Parent ]
An aside on redistricting for us neophytes
As a neophyte political junkie, I've been trying to find good resources to learn more about the redistricting process (i.e. how newer districts are drawn and how it's decided which will disappear, etc.).  Can anyone point me in the right direction to gain more insight into this subject?  Help on this is greatly appreciated.
[ Parent ]
combine them
Combine Dreihaus and Schmidt.  He'd cream her when we make a Hamilton based seat that leans Dem.

Same for Kilroy and Tiberi.  Make them Dem favored districts and make Tiberi have to move or face defeat.

Although I'd rather preserve Tiberi's seat and make Kilroy's more favorable and make OH-7 more GOP by taking out that part of Columbus and giving to Kilroy.  Then Tiberi will be free to knock off whenever it's his turn to get targetted.

Ohio is the state I'm most excited to see redistricted.  And PA, PA-6, 15.  Ha, let's see what we can do.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, let Kasich try...
Or let Portman try. Neither will likely get far against Strickland.

So who do we have to run for Senate? I guess Tim Ryan will be OK. But no one else is being talked up? Just curious.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

[ Parent ]
Strickland looks fine...
But what about the Senate? Tim Ryan? Another House Rep.? Anyone in statewide office other than Strickland or Jennifer Brunner? Inquiring minds want to know.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
Almost everyone statewide is a Dem
Repubs only have one office left, Auditor or something like that.  We need Brunner where she's at.  Holding her office in 2010 is almost as important as the Governor's race.
[ Parent ]
Oh, I agree!
I was only asking b/c I know neither of them can jump into the Senate race.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
The deck seems to be clearing for Tim Ryan...
...and while I think that Ryan would be fine, I think that there are others that would be excellent too. Both Betty Sutton and Marcy Kaptur come to mind, as mentioned below.

Jennifer Brunner needs to remain at Secretary of State for this cycle, but at this very early stage, she will probably be the favorite to be our candidate for Governor in 2014.

[ Parent ]
What about Marcy Kaptur?
I don't know if Ohio is one of those states that hates its elected officials coming from big cities, since she's from Cleveland, but she seems to be progressive and a strong advocate for the working class.

And now that she lost her House leadership race she could be looking to move up. I think she gives us Tim Ryan's populism without sacrificing ground on social issues. She seems like a good cross between Ryan and Brown, actually.  

Kaptur
Is from Toledo.
[ Parent ]
Whoops.
Totally missed on that one then, huh?

Still...what about her?

[ Parent ]
I like her..
overall, but she has a pretty good job in the House.

She is now Dean of the Ohio delegation.  She is also Dean of the House Women.

Plus we need her to ward off Joe the Plumber!!

http://www.thaindian.com/newsp...

She's great on trade, though.

[ Parent ]
How safe is Kaptur's district?
Is it a swing district? Or reliably Democratic? And is JTP really that much of a threat? Just curious.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
Quite safe
Old PVI: D+9
[ Parent ]
Thanks, James...
So that settles it for me. I'd like to see Marcy Kaptur run. She's a good fit statewide, from somewhere other than Cleveland, and a smart & accomplished Democratic woman. Why not Marcy Kaptur for Senate?

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
She's 62
Which isn't that old, I guess, but kind of pushing the outer limit on where you'd want to be as a freshman senator. Also, I think she might be looking to focus on building power in the House instead. She's running for Caucus Vice-Chair again (she lost to Xavier Becerra, but he's apparently vacating to become US Trade Rep, so there's a new leadership fight). That said, I do like her (she's in the Progressive Caucus, albeit its only pro-lifer I think, and she knows how to bring the populism).
[ Parent ]
That might make sense...
I can see Kaptur staying in the House if she's moving up the leadership ladder. Still, is she really "too liberal" for statewide election? Even though she seems pretty center-right on social issues? Isn't Ohio fairly progressive on economic issues, or am I misjudging the electorate?

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
I was kidding about Joe the Plumber.
my list for senate

1. Sutton
2. Fisher/Kaptur
3. Ryan

[ Parent ]
well, she's on the outer
edge of age for a freshman senator and she is very liberal, considering Ohio is still a conservative-to moderate state. That would all be alright if she hadn't made so many controversial statements over the years.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Sherrod Brown is at least as liberal as Kaptur
and he won with 56% of the vote.

And Howard Metzenbaum, one of the most liberal Senators, served 3 terms in Ohio.  In 1988, Metzenbaum beat George Voinovich 57% to 43%.


[ Parent ]
Ehh
Brown won in a very Democratic year against an unpopular incumbent.  Not only that but Brown's approvals have been consistently very low since takign office, ranging from the low to high 40's.  He really needs to start making a presense if he expects to get re-elected next time around.
[ Parent ]
Not true at all..
Brown always has a high net approval for being a liberal senator from a moderate-leaning state.  Many times he may be at 45-49% approval, but only 20-30% disapprove.  Unfortunately, a lot of people don't know their Senators or are just unsure..

Here is a link
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x132...

In this poll 26% of voters just aren't sure.  On the other hand, Sherrod has a net +22% approval and a net 21% among Indy voters.

So please, research before you comment.

To put this all in context, if Brown won all of the approvals, lost all of the disapprovals, and lost 90% of the undeciededs, he'd still win, albeit narrowly.

SUTTON 2012!!!!!!!
BROWN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2016!!!

[ Parent ]
I was taking into consideration reliable pollsters
Not Qunnipiac.  Here's Brown's latest SUSA approvals.  Both months his approvals were several points LOWER than Voinovich's.

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

10/22/08
Approve - 43%
Disapprove - 44%

9/21/08
Approve - 40%
Disapprove - 46%

[ Parent ]
Marcy Kaptur...
...has been in office since 1983. Her district includes most of Lucas County (Toledo) and extends eastwards along Lake Erie.

I have my doubts that JTP will run, but if he does, he will be crushed by Kaptur. I very highly doubt that Kaptur would seek statewide office (though I would certainly not mind if she did), but if she did, I am guessing that our candidate would be Teresa Fedor, a State Senator from Toledo, and Fedor would also be the odds-on favorite in this district.

JTP's 15 minutes of fame are probably up.

[ Parent ]
Betty Sutton
Really Progressive.  Lots of fundrasing.  Ryan is pro-life.  Kaptur is against embryonic stem cell research.
The only problem with Betty Sutton...
...that I can see is that she comes from the same CD as Sherrod Brown, and I think that it stretches credulity to think that we could elect two Senators from the same district in Ohio.

She would be excellent, though, and is probably my favored candidate. She's young, too - just 45; she could have a long future in the party.

[ Parent ]
Yeah...
We may be overreaching by trying to have both Ohio Senate seats filled by "Cleveland liberals". While I'd love to see Sutton in the Senate some time later, for now we may have to settle for a more moderate Dem from another part of the state.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
Actually she's from Akron
Copley twp to be exact.  
[ Parent ]
Whoops, sorry...
I didn't know OH-13 extended that far south. I understand now. I'm from Orange County, CA, so I remember having to correct people who used to say I was "from LA". ;-)

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
Paul Hackett.
It's sort of obligatory that someone mentions it.

Hey, we can dream, can't we? :-)

Is he still around?
Really? In retrospect, I don't know if he was the ideal candidate.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
No, he's not.
He essentially dropped out of politics after the hullabaloo with Sherrod Brown from a few years ago.

Still, all the talk from 2005 was that if Brown was our candidate in 2006, maybe Hackett would stick around to take on Voinovich in 2010. I do think that there is a legitimate chance that if Voinovich runs again, then several of our better candidates could potentially retreat into their "safe" seats, and we might not get a chance to see someone like Ryan, Sutton, or Kaptur this cycle. There is a chance that Ryan will take his shot regardless, but this is far from a given.

If Voinovich runs again and we are short on candidates, we could do worse than re-visiting the Paul Hackett idea. Certainly this would be better than the absolutely dreadful Lee Fisher that we ran against Voinovich in 2004.

As an aside, I hope that we can find a way to get Vic Wulsin into public office somewhere. She's ran just as competitively as Hackett did for two cycles against Jean Schmidt in the ultra-red OH-02; it would be nice to find a way to have her move up, somehow...

[ Parent ]
Wulsin
Is her State Senator a Repub?  People keep saying that Republicans have a complete strangehold on the state senate and, well, we have to start somewhere.
I share your love for Vic Wulsin.  I'm kinda hoping that she can get a little more political experience doing something a bit lower down the line, then with some luck redistricting will put her in a slightly-less noxious district.
[ Parent ]
Lee Fisher ran in 2004?
I think you mean Eric Fingerhut, don't you?
[ Parent ]
You're right, Fingerhut in 2004.
My fault. Thanks.
[ Parent ]
Lee Fisher seems to be running
but if Hackett ran and won Ohio's new pair of Senators would be eerily similar to Howard Metzenbaum and John Glenn.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
GOP weakness
The GOP seems to be losing ground quite quickly in Ohio going from 12 House seats after 2004 to 11 to 8.  Any blowback from the non-funding of the auto deals will hurt them further.  Right now, eastern Ohio with the exception of Tiberi is ours; western Ohio with the exception of Dreihaus in Cincy is theirs.  Delphi, the former DELCO, closed up its Ohio plants but other suppliers, GM etc, still operate.  Given the leading position of Boehner, it will be easy to sell Ohio Republicans as sell-outs.

I think Republicans in Ohio think status quo or the glory days of the past but the Republicans in this region may well be in far worse shape than they think.  

Are you saying that we are going to
beat LaToureete, because he's still around in that conservative, gerrymandered chunk of northeastern Ohio, mostly Geuga and Lake counties I think./

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Somebody is in trouble
I wish I knew the location of all the auto plants and parts suppliers.  Whether it is La Tourette, Tiberi, or Austria (or all of them), I don't know.

Lordstown, a major GM plant, looks to be in Ralph Regula's old district and we took that this year.  

[ Parent ]
Correction
Lordstown is in Trumbull County, which is in Tim Ryan's district.  
[ Parent ]
Ohio
The Senate Race will come down to a primary battle between Lee Fisher and Tim Ryan. Fisher will have the support of the ODP HQ and Gov. Strickland. Rich Cordray has tacitly agreed to stay out in exchange for the central Party's support for his AG campaign (which he won, quite handily.)

Fisher would seem to have the edge in the primary, but Ryan could argue that we would do better in the general election. But Fisher has the "inside track" to the nomination in a lot of ways. Also,the 'sphere needs to realize that Ryan is very much a moderate. For example, he's a Catholic and definitely pro-life. (So is Marcy Kaptur.)

Kaptur is determined to become the longest serving woman in the U.S. House, eclipsing Margaret Chase Smith. And she doesn't poll well outside of her absolutely safe District. After she has served longer than Smith, she'll retire. Her quixotic forays against the Dem establishment means that she wouldn't have their support in a run for the Senate. As a populist Democrat with her pro-life stance, she doesn't get support from women's groups of left or right. She'll stay right where she is.  

I'm surprised that so many Republicans seem willing to run against Strickland. It won't be easy. In fact... I think that it would be "Pickett's Charge" all over again. Ted has carefully rebuilt the ODP and has his team in place. He was strongly behind John Boccieri's successful run in OH-16 right from Day One. (Literally-- Ted spoke at Bocceri's campaign launch event.) And he supported Dreihaus --and look at how those races came out.

Paul Hackett is not a factor, even more so after his conduct during the fall campaign here.

Fisher..
Has lost a statewide race (more than one actually), which is an unwritten rule in Ohio.
[ Parent ]
really, what did Hackett
do this fall?

The one thing we haven't done is win a single seat on the surpreme court.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
I heard of him
Criticizing Obama for the lack of presence in his area. Turns out he wasn't wholly accurate but if that's his only sin then I hardly think that's un-pardonable.
[ Parent ]
Ryan's probably the strongest candidate
but I'd much rather Sutton.

I'd guess maybe Portman runs for the GOP and gets crushed by Strickland.  

But Ryan has the Youngstown stink..
Marc Dann
Traficant
the list goes on..
[ Parent ]
That's a little irresponsible.
There's really no cause for grouping Tim Ryan in with crooks like Marc Dann and James Traficant.

Agree with his positions or don't, support him for the Senate seat or don't, but he's a good man and a good Congressman and there's no reason to make this comment.

[ Parent ]
Right on
Having lived in the Youngstown area for nearly my entire 23 years on Earth, I can say that Ryan is world's away from the likes of Dann and Traficant. He was never really close to the corrupt machine that runs this area. In 2000, he beat Marc Dann (who was the machine's favored candidate) for a state senate seat, and in 2002, he beat long-time machine pol Anthony Latelle (along with Congressman Tom Sawyer).

As far as issue positions go, Ryan's are pretty close to mine. Although he opposes abortion (while I don't), he has been a strong supporter of family planning and sex education (real education, not that abstinence-only garbage). He's also really good on environmental issues, which is surprising given the area he represents (LCV ratings for the past 3 congresses: 79, 90, 100). His position on guns would actually be an asset b/c that is often the biggest barrier to Democratic success in SE Ohio (where Dems need to keep the GOP margin low to win statewide). There are exceptions, particularly when economic concerns override cultural ones (liberals like Metzenbaum, Glenn, and Brown won there despite supporting gun control).

[ Parent ]
From a reliable source I know..
Three candidates are looking at the Gov race in Ohio:

-John Kasich will run
-Rob Portman possible, maybe also for Senate
-Mike DeWine only if Portman doesn't run for Senate

Husted is running for SoS as a stepping stone to Gov in 2014.

In my opinion, if Husted wins SoS, then the 2014 race will be Husted v. Cordray.  If Brunner wins, she may end up going for GOV in 2014.

Tim Ryan
Tim Ryan would make an excellent candidate.  Marcy Kaptur would as well.  I am staunchly pro-choice and would gladly support either one of those two fine public servants.  Hackett won't get in if Ryan runs.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  
Agreed
I'm 100% pro-choice too.  That being said, this issue isn't likely to come up with a Democratic President or a Democratic Congress.  Especially so with both.  The only time it's going to come up for a big vote is Supreme Court appoointments, and I'm confident that either Ryan or Kaptur would approve any qualified pro-choice Obama nominee to the court.
[ Parent ]
OH-Gov, OH-Sen: Statewide Recruitment Thread | 58 comments

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