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MN-Sen: Good Day Gets Better

by: James L.

Fri Dec 12, 2008 at 3:43 PM EST


From the Pioneer Press:

Franken also received unexpected good news when Deputy Secretary of State Jim Gelbmann dropped a mini-bombshell, telling the board that in overwhelmingly Democratic Duluth - which has not officially tallied rejected absentees - about 40 percent of that city's 319 rejected absentee ballots were mistakenly rejected. Gelbmann said the city rejected the votes because either the voter or the witness did not date their signatures. He said he couldn't find any state law to support such a rejection.

(Hat-tip: Paleo)
James L. :: MN-Sen: Good Day Gets Better
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MN-Sen: Good Day Gets Better | 32 comments
....
I'm doing the math as we speak about how the city of Duluth voted.  Give me 15.  I'll Nate Silvers this one.
And Franken already said he was ahead
in his internal figures which took into account how the opinion of the local ballot judge on each of the candidates challenged ballots. I say looks like Franken might win this thing by like 37 votes.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
About 127-128 votes...
look to be added to the total now. So what was Franken's margin in Duluth? That'll probably give us a clue on how many votes he'll pick up here.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
Wow...
Just when I thought we might lose here, we're getting loads of good news today! First the ruling on the absentee ballots, and now this! Franken may end up winning by that 37 vote margin Nate Silver predicted. ;-)

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
Franken is projected to gain 31 votes
from those Duluth absentee ballots then.  Actually, should be even a bit higher than that, but we'll speculate on that in a minute.

If 40% of the 319 ballots are counted, that is 127.6 ballots.

The city of Duluth voted this way

Franken- 55.3%
Coleman- 31.6%
Barkley- 12.8%
Other-1%

That gives Franken an extra 71 votes and Coleman an extra 40 votes, thus giving Franken a 31 vote pick-up.

HOWEVER!  Remember that the absentee ballots as a whole in the state have been going for Franken by a solid margin or whatever has been said.  That means that those absentee ballots will probably lean even more for Franken.  Add on maybe another 5% to his vote margin and he gets 77 votes.  And then from that gain, Coleman would statistically lose 4.4% if Barkley maintains a 12ish% in the absentee ballots, giving him 35 votes, thus giving Franken an extra 42 votes!  And that's if Franken only get's a 5% absentee vote cushion, could be higher than that even.

So today alone, Franken has gained 70-80 votes.  That makes him only 100 down?

And
742
632

If there are indeed 1600 ballots counted and if Franken wins these by even 5% over Coleman, he gains 110 votes (742-632).  

This is going to be CLOSE.  Omg, I'm crawling into a cave and not watching the tv for the next 6 months...

[ Parent ]
Barkley and Lizard People may pick up a few of those
but it's not looking half bad for Al.
[ Parent ]
I wonder
do Barkley and Lizard People have their own observers at the recount?
[ Parent ]
I would like to be a fly on the wall in that room
but I worry that the Lizard People observers might get hungry...
[ Parent ]
6 months?
Shouldn't this race be decided by January 5?

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
Considering
that Coleman has challenged over 100 more ballots than Franken (challenges that likely won't stand, on both sides), it is very conceivable that Franken has already taken the lead.
[ Parent ]
Norm Coleman Deathwatch Thread

Hmm
I could throw my support behind that one. Considering all the good news today.
[ Parent ]
If Norm Coleman wins...
He could go to jail due to corruption charges, so having a Deathwatch thread is not a bad idea.

On a side note, if the vote is too close to call, could the Senate take over and give it to Franken because of Coleman's ethics violations?

[ Parent ]
He's a Republican.
They got to jail the same way other people vacation in the Caribbean.  Not one of those things you do every day.  But a good chance you'll do it at least once in your life.
[ Parent ]
You put too much faith in Senate Democrats showing spine.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
No Senate Override
I have a strong bias against the Seante or House ever overturning any election result.  It's bad precedent and should only happen in extreme cases.  I've been a Franken backer here when others have slagged off on him, but if he cannot win it with a Democratic SoS and Democratic Minnesota Supreme Court, then the Senate should stay out of it.  Now, if the US Supreme Court were to screw him, then  . . . .
[ Parent ]
FL-13 should have been overturned in 2006
That screwjob made the 2000 Presidential election look like a model election by comparison.  
[ Parent ]
Thank goodness that only cost us one relatively unimportant House seat
while the 2000 election...I don't even need to start going through all the things that the Bush administration has done wrong.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Still though
I know it's only one house seat, but I'll never get over that F'n race.  Tens of thousands of votes from heavily democratic precincts?  That sort of thing should happen in Zimbabwe or Belarus, not in this counrty.
[ Parent ]
I would like everyone to remember the board that ruled on these ballots today
Will also be going through all the challenged ballots on Tuesday.  Gear up, news is going to keep coming from Minnesota.  
Coleman Taking it to Court
Not so good news per the Minneapolis Star Tribune dated 4:45 PM (5:45 PM eastern time.  They claim they want to avoid a Florida type situation but that's exactly where they want to go.  Coleman wants to stop the count.
Don't be worried.
1. The Board that ruled on the ballots today had two conservative judges from the supreme court including MN SC Chief Justice.  

2. Coleman is arguing that there is not a uniform judging process for these absentee ballots.  The problem is that is entirely false.  There are four ways to get an absentee ballot disqualified and these ballots they are trying to count meet each qualification.  I doubt the court will feed his "Stop the counting" call.  

[ Parent ]
"uniform judging process"?
Isn't that the same baloney that the Bush team used back in 2000?

Don't take this race for granted just yet.  Our enemies have a strong majority share of the market in dirty political tricks.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
Unlike the presidential race
Ultimately it's the senate which is the final abritrator of the election, and victory by court ruling would make an awful lot of senate Democrats twitchy, you know?

Your go-to source for great sarcasm
[ Parent ]
One thing to consider
is that Dick Cheney will still be President of the Senate when new Senators are sworn in. Procedurally it can be difficult to deal with stuff like this when you don't control the guy in the chair (if he doesn't just choose to ship back to. . .Wyoming).  
[ Parent ]
Cheney
what sort of powers does the President of the Senate have?
[ Parent ]
He gets to preside. . .
Mostly, I think he has limited powers in choosing who to recognize and what motions to recognize.

He can make a nuisance of himself, kinda like a traffic cop working with car thieves.  

[ Parent ]
Don't Count on the Senate
A lot of independents and Democrats like myself do not want the Senate overriding the courts, absent something particularly egregious.  That goes double if it's Democratic appointed judges making the call.  And, without public support, I doubt Senate Democrats would initiate open war between the parties at the beginning of Obama's administration over Franken.  Franken needs to win through the regular process.
[ Parent ]
No one can oppose a uniform counting process
Everyone wants that, except pure partisan douchebags.

It makes no sense to have one county reject a ballot and another accept one when the ballots have the exact same issue.

[ Parent ]
agreed
And I agree with the US Supreme Court that to do so would be a violation of the Equal Protection Clause.
[ Parent ]
Minn. Supreme Court
Didn't this court alread rule once that they did NOT have jurisdiction and that the canvassing board should make the call on absentee ballots? (They also said they were NOT ruling on the merits of the case.)
Now the canvassing board, which includes two Supremes, has made the call to count the wrongly discarded absentee ballots.
So why would the Supreme Court now decide it DOES have jurisdiction and rule in Coleman's favor?
I think Coleman loses this one - hopefully quickly.  I would like to see the absentee ballot count coming in quickly and reducing Coleman's lead significantly so the challenged ballots will just be piling on.
Fascinated Reader
MN-Sen: Good Day Gets Better | 32 comments

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