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NY-Sen-B: King is "Preparing a Run"

by: James L.

Tue Dec 09, 2008 at 3:33 PM EST


My pappy used to tell me: "Son, if you're gonna go out, you may as well do it in style!" Looks like GOP Rep. Pete King is gonna do it in style:

Rep. Pete King (R-N.Y.) is preparing a run at Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's (D) seat in 2010, his office confirmed Tuesday. [...]

King is one of just three GOPers in the New York congressional delegation to survive November's elections and has a good fundraising start on the race, having banked $1.2 million as of late November.

Of course, a lot depends on who Paterson chooses to fill Clinton's seat, but I'd wager that King faces extremely tough odds -- even against a "weak" Democrat. A King candidacy would also open up his Long Island House seat (old PVI: D+2.1), which is very winnable for Democrats with the right candidate.

UPDATE: The AP has more:

"I am seriously considering the race for Hillary Clinton's seat," King told The AP. "I'm very serious about it."

The eight-term lawmaker from Long Island said New York's GOP chairman Joseph Mondello "supports me 100 percent," and that state Conservative Party chair Michael Long has responded positively.

The son of an NYPD lieutenant, King said he "would genuinely represent the interests of blue-collar conservatives."
James L. :: NY-Sen-B: King is "Preparing a Run"
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NY-Sen-B: King is "Preparing a Run" | 58 comments
RUN KING RUN!
Nothing would make me happier than seeing my parents vote for a Democrat to represent the place where I grew up. They are committed King Democrats, as in "straight-ticket Democrat, except for King". I've tried, and failed, to convince them not to vote for King, so any method of getting him out of that seat is a positive in my book.

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Peter King in a Long Island institution...
but he's the only person standing between it and Democratic hegemony in the NY area. With him out, this district goes blue (see Fossella, Vito). Plus, he's basically an East Coast version of an Orange County Republican, so I doubt he'll have much appeal to the rural R's upstate. With a half-decent Dem candidate he's toast. So I say yes - run, Pete, run!
An interesting wrinkle to the selection here
Didn't think about it before but the point has been raised that whoever Patterson picks will have to run in back to back cycles meaning fundraising will be a challenge to say the least. Hence one of the reasons Teddy and Bobby are pushing for Caroline. I'm thinking it'll either be her or Cuomo. Either would crush King.
hopefully not Coumo or Kennedy
there's no reason to appoint either and both are unqualified, especially Caroline Kennedy whose only claim to fame is her hame. Why can't he pick a real politician, like Vasquez or Higgins, or even Weiner. Tom Suozzi might even be a good choice because he shares a political base with King, neutralizing King's one strength.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
New Yorkers seem okay with them
[ Parent ]
The funniest
Thing about that is that Gillibrand has higher negatives than Caroline Kennedy and Cuomo despite the fact that nearly 70% of voters have no opinion of her.
[ Parent ]
How is Coumo less qualified than
Suozzi?  Coumo's won statewide at least.
[ Parent ]
I don't like Cuomo
I think he's only in office because his father was famous.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
He seems to be doing an ok job.
And I still think he's qualified, even if he's not the best pick.
[ Parent ]
Whether that's true
Or not, the idea that Cuomo is unqualified to be a Senator is utterly riddiculous. He's the New York Attorney General and was Bill Clinton's HUD Secretary. There are a lot of US Senator with a thinner resume than that.
[ Parent ]
Seriously
Cuomo would be highly qualified for the job.  I suppose there's a valid question as to whether or not he deserves it, but people need to get off their high horses about the qualifications to be Senator.  Same thing with Caroline Kennedy--I have some serious doubts as to whether or not she's actually "earned" the appointment so to speak, but she's had a highly successful personal life and I see no reason why she couldn't complete to job at least adequately.
Frankly, you could argue that there are hundreds of people in NY with the qualifications to be Senator.
[ Parent ]
I like Caroline Kennedy
But I think arguing that she is unqualified is a legitimate conversation to have. According to PPP, Kennedy is the preference of NY Dems by 21 points and 68% say she is their first or second choice to be their Senator. So clearly, they seem to be okay with it.

But Cuomo is VERY qualified to be a Senator. A lot of the other names being thrown around are not as qualified as Cuomo. If you think Kristin Gillibrand is more qualified to be a Senator than Cuomo, your delusional.

[ Parent ]
Cuomo is more qualified than Kennedy
and certainly among the most qualified people in the state.

My main beef is that people are acting like being a Senator is ridiculously hard and should only be accessible to an elite few geniuses.  I really don't think it is.  Of course that leads into the argument that Kennedy is only getting mentioned because she is part of a elite group because of her father.

[ Parent ]
Let's drop any pretense
And admit that Kennedy is only in this position because of her father, and to a lesser degree her uncle.

But, I'm not going to take this holier than thou approach that people who come from famous political families don't have a significant leg up in terms of being able to get their foot in the political world, and that when it happens its always a bad thing. And a lot of it has to do with the fact that my Governor, Jim Doyle, falls into this category. Doyle hasn't been perfect but he's been a much better Governor than Scott McCallum or Mark Green would've been, the two guys who were running against him in 02 and 06.

Kennedy can probably do the job and according to that PPP poll, the people of NY want her.

[ Parent ]
Velasquez
would never beat King...Higgins would have trouble to be honest. He needs someone who is a powerhouse.

Maybe someone who ISN'T a real politician is good since King is a slimy real politician.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Why would he have trouble?
New York is a very blue state. Peter King wins in an area that's D+2.1, whereas the state as a whole is about D+22 (back of the envelope calculation). That may be inflated based on national Republican campaigns, but it's still extremely Democratic.

Peter King might do better in Long Island, but Democrats do not need Long Island to win in New York State.

I can sort of see arguments that a nativist campaign might beat Velasquez. But Higgins? Higgins is thoroughly middle of the road and hard to demonise for anything except being boring. That's not enough to allow King to overcome the state's blue lean.

[ Parent ]
King will win Long Island
against Higgins (King will probably win Long Island regardless) and will probably be able to make some headway in New York City, meaning Higgins would have to rack up huge margins upstate and he can do that probably only around Buffalo. Higgins also might have a fundraising problem someone like Kennedy or Cuomo would not have.

Don't forget, King can force Democrats to spend money in a state they don't want to spend money in. The only upstater who could bury King is Gillibrand.

Depending on King's margin on Long Island, he could get anywhere between 43% and 49%.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Explain
How will King make headway in New York City? He might do OK in Staten Island and in a few ethnic communities in other boroughs, but Republicans always have a shot there. And there's no guarantee King would be more attractive to them as a candidate than Higgins.

New York City outnumbers Long Island and there are bits of New York that any Democrats will win by margins well beyond those King could dream of on Long Island. So I don't see where this need to make up ground Upstate comes from.

[ Parent ]
King
is popular with Jewish voters and white voters in the city. If he could get 30%-35% citywide, get 55% on Long Island, all he would need is about 55% Upstate to win statewide.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
30-35% in NYC?
Is it even possible for a right-wing gasbag to get that much of the NYC vote?
[ Parent ]
When that gasbag is Pete King
yeah sure. He's frighteningly popular in parts of the city.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
As a congressman yes
It's easy to get away with being a faux moderate in the little feifdom he's epresented for ages.  But statewide is another animal altogether.  Give democrats $40 mill+ in 2010, which our candidate is all but guaranteed to have, and everyone in NY will know the real Peter King.  Sorry, but a guy with a very long, solidly conservative voting record in congress isn't going to win statewide.  D'Amato was the last of that group and he was voted out a decade ago handily.
[ Parent ]
Do we really want to spend that much
in New York? when we got pickup opportunities in Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Iowa, etc.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
We don't need to
The DSCC won't need to spend much if anything.  Almost any Dem can raise ungodly amounts of money on their own in a NY Senate race.  Heck, even Hillary apent around $40 mill running against a nobody in 2006 and I think Schumer did the same his last race.
[ Parent ]
Is Long Island really THAT big?
I thought Long Island only makes up roughly 1 or 2 congressional districts out of 29 in New York.  That doesn't strike me as a number big enough to give a republican candidate much of a boost.
[ Parent ]
4 1/2 CD's
Long Island casts about 20%-25% of the statewide total.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
What is "qualified"?
I think it is a mistake to dismiss Andrew Cuomo or Caroline Kennedy as "unqualified" because they have famous last names.

I'm troubled by the dynastic element in politics (whether it be GW/GHW Bush,Bill/Hillary Clinton, John/Robert/Edward/Patrick/Kathleen/Caroline Kennedy, Roy/Matt Blunt,Thomas/Chris Dodd, Sarbanes, Pat/Jerry Brown, Jesse/Jesse Jr jackson, the brothers Diaz-Balart, etc etc).

But while some of those family ties have given us disgusting or undistinguished officials, some of the others have given us leaders and public servants of the highest order who would never have been in office if it were not for their name/lineage.

To be qualified to be a US Senator from NY, one must be 35 years old, a US citizen, and a legal resident of New York at the time of election/appointment. Everything beyond that is subjective.

As for Andrew Cuomo, his qualifications are clear - former US cabinet secretary (HUD), and elected statewide Attorney General. If he isn't qualified with that kind  of experience, then Patterson should just go ahead and appoint Bill Clinton, because no one else in the state could possibly be considered qualified.

As for Caroline Kennedy, it is wrong to dismiss her simply because she has never run for elective office. She has had an extremely high level of civic involvement in New York (especially working to build important public/private partnerships to improve the city school system). On a national level she is President of the Kennedy Library Foundation, on the Board of the NAACP Legal Defense and Education Fund, and a member of the Commission on Presidential Debates. And we all remember her leadership role in the Obama VP vetting process.

Caroline Kennedy is intelligent, knowledgeable, passionate, articulate and committed to progressive issues. I truly believe that the Obama campaign sparked her to become publicly engaged in politics in a way she had avoided for most of her life.

And I do understand why her background is compelling for many people as a symbol - of the connection to the generational change and hope of her father, or the legacy of her uncle Bobby who held this Senate seat, and to the work of her uncle Ted and his 45 years of accomplishment in the US Senate. She would also enter the Senate with a platform and profile that none of the other candidates would have -- a valuable thing for one of the most junior members.

I don't know if she (or Cuomo) is the best choice for Senator - but I do think that not everyone going to the US Senate needs to have a long history in public office -- there are many other meaningful ways that someone can bring the experience and perspectives that make someone qualified for the US Senate.

(Among others who didn't hold elected office before going to the Senate - Ted Kennedy,  Hillary Clinton, Frank Lautenberg, Jim Webb, Herb Kohl, Paul Wellstone...)

Finally, I'd factor one key qualification into the equation -- the ability to run successful, well financed campaigns in 2010 and 2012. I don't want to risk a previously safe Senate seat with a weak incumbent, or for the DSCC to have to spend money in an expensive New York race instead of spreading it out among challengers in other smaller states. I want Paterson to be thinking about that as he weighs his appointment.

[ Parent ]
Nice post
I agree that the kneejerk reflex in some circles (especially Dailykos) against "dynastic" or "legacy" politics is a bit tiresome, and probably a lingering attitude of dislike towards anything resembling the hereditary monarchy of England. You've gotta wonder if these same people would have been complaining about Al Gore, Jr.'s run for U.S. Senate in 1984!

Not that I'm necessarily in favor of either Kennedy or Cuomo for this appointment, but I don't think that either of them would be bad choices.

[ Parent ]
I would add
I know it's only a book, but someone who closely associated herself, and to some extent co-wrote with Ellen Alderman, In Our Defense, which is one of the more forceful non-academic texts supporting and detailing the crucial nature of the Bill of Rights, must have something good. I think, based on what I've gleaned so far, that she might be one of the most progressive champions we could pick as a replacement, barring Velasquez or a few of the Reps from Manhattan/the Bronx.
[ Parent ]
Awesome
Because a right-wing hack stands a great chance of winning NY statewide.
If only Lee and McHugh would challenge him in the primary...
We could sweep the state, New Mexico Style
New Mexico Style
I like that phrase. "We completely swept the GOP out of that state, New Mexico style."

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[ Parent ]
Number 2 Target
Barring future retirements, NY-3 probably stands second only to Anh "Joe" Cao in LA-2 as a target for Democrats.  A Nike Castle retirement or run for the Senate could change this but barring scandal, it is unlikely to drop further than third.

If we can take out 2008 freshman Christopher Lee in NY-26, John McHugh in Ny-23 becomes the last of the Mohicans, er Republicans in NY State.  It was 16-15 D after 1994.  Given his far upstate district, that's a fitting title for McHugh (who looks more like Sam Waterston than Daniel Day-Lewis).

Massa will be heavily targeted

[ Parent ]
McHugh's district is actually
more Democratic than Lee's though.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
And both
are more Democratic than congressman-elect Eric Massa's.  If Kuhl isn't safe, than no seat in New York is safe for Republicans.  That said, Kuhl didn't do himself any favors and it will be a difficult seat to hold.
[ Parent ]
not really,
if Massa can hold on this time the district can made a lot mroe tendable. Obama definitely made big improvements over Gore nad Kerry there. Obama actually won McHugh's district by roughly 9 thousand votes according to my lose estimates on county totals and guessing the number of votes each candidate got for the several counties only partially in the district. Good news is that Kerry lost this district 51-47, so did Gore. So we're definitely making gains here, and in NY-29 and 26, so upstate New York is finally going our way, which will leave Republicans in the state nowhere to to go. Great, only took New york about 200 years a Democratic leaning state before it finally finished.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
McHugh's entrenched
A firdt term congressman with no accomplishments like Christopher Lee is more vulnerable than someone who is established and has a record f constituent service.  McHugh may hav the tougher districtbut right now, he's safer.
[ Parent ]
Any Lon Gislanders
out there with any thoughts on who's on our bench in this district? Despite the gains we've made in the state senate on LI recently, it still doesn't look like there are any Democratic state senators within NY-03. But a quick look at the map indicates three Assemblymen here (Robert Sweeney in AD-11, Charles Lavine in AD-13, Harvey Weisenberg in AD-20), plus there must be a lot of Nassau County Legislators to choose from.
i'm from LI
Although, I'm in NY-02 closer to the NY-01 border then the NY-03. But the main guy is Nasseu County exec Tom Suozzi, but a ton of choices to choose from on the bench if he declines. As you listed a ton of assemblyman and other democrats on the county level to choose from. Should be a fairly easy win for any credible Democratic.

If King runs, you can pretty much run any democrat and we win the senate and House seat.

I've met King a few times he's defiantly a Long Island, Staten Island kinda guy. I can't see him playing well in the city or upstate. He's way too right wing especially economically. He's Rudy without the name rec, money, or cult following. He's way to the right of his district as it is and without the political apparatus of a big name like Rudy he has no shot. He's no Rick Lazio who was a viable candidate.

Awesome News thou, it should be an easy pickup!

Run King Run.

[ Parent ]
Does Suozzi
live in Glen Cove (Wikipedia just says that's where he was born)? (If so, then, yeah, he's in NY-03.) I guess I wasn't thinking of him since he seems to have bigger fish to fry (i.e. governor or senator), but maybe US Rep. would raise his profile toward that end more so than county executive?
[ Parent ]
I don't know exactly where he lives.
I think he lives in Glen Cove but, I have no idea. Nassau is pretty chopped up between NY-02,3 and 4. But I'm pretty sure I have heard speculation about him running against King in the past. So I just assumed he's in 3.
[ Parent ]
He does
live in Glen Cove.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Tom Suozzi
could run, I wanted and expected him to run agaisnt King this year, especially after that mediocre 51% performance in 2006 against a little known underfunded county legislator.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Tom Suozzi
is the number one name in this district. He would take it easily. Also, Nassau County DA Kathleen Rice...she has women in her pocket, mothers especially.

Diane Yatauro, the Presiding Officer (Speaker) of the Nassau County Legislature is another good possibility. I recently met her, she's a really strong woman.

Assemblyman Robert Sweeney from Suffolk County, but he's been around quite a while.

It's not going to happen, but Suffolk County Legislator Wayne Horsely is a personal favorite. I've met him. He's a really spunky guy...very big on the environment.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Suffolk?
The bulk of the district lies within Nassau - not sure if running someone from the Suffolk portion is a good idea...

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[ Parent ]
It's kinda up or out for him
The legislature was very likely to remove him in '11 anyway.  
it's not really fair to remove him
Long Island hasn't lost population, most of the population loss has been from upstate. In all honesty the seats should be taken from upstate.

NY-26 and NY-29 anyone?

[ Parent ]
Not fair?
Fairness doesn't enter into it, political considerations do.

NY probably has to give up two seats, and Democrats have already bitten off more than they can chew upstate. If a Republican has to go, and at least one does, then the candidate at the top of the list is Peter King. The second loser will probably be an upstate Democrat, though there might be creative ways around that.  

[ Parent ]
Well can't we just get rid of NY-26 and NY-23
That's a nice partisan solution to the problem. Not to mention that fact that no Democrats get harmed in the process of making this gerrymandering. merge the 26th with the 28th district I would think. Our guy should be able to hold that. The 23th is tricky to chop up, but I think it can be done.

Two Republicans go away and we get to fairly represent the population distribution.  

[ Parent ]
I would eliminate Higgins and Hinchey's districts
Combine part of Higgins with part of Slaughters and let her retire, (she'll be like 78), and that gives Higgins a solidly Democratic seat. Move NY-29 which is bleeding population further into Higgins old territory, especially Erie county, which is very Democratic while taking out some strongly Republican south tier areas. Then I would put a lot of Bufallo that's in Slaughter's district and put it into NY-26 making Lee's district more democratic. I then add Ithaca into NY-24 to make it Democratic leaning and expand NY-25, Maffei's new district, to include part's of the old NY-29 and NY-25. The result when McHugh and King and gone, 27 D, 0 R.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Hinchey is God
What you speak is sacrelige. Hinchey is the best progressive in the state.

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[ Parent ]
uhmmm

You're forgetting that every House district has to have about 10% more population in 2012 than in 2002; around 700 or 710K rather than 640K.  Downstate NY simply hasn't grown enough to retain all the seats it has now.
[ Parent ]
hmm didn't know that
could be a problem then...
[ Parent ]
they wouldn't have removed him
but they would have added parts of heavily Democratic Brooklyn to his and Fossela's districts. All the New York area districts would move furhter out without eliminating any because NYC area is the only area of the actuall growing yet is always forced to lose a seat for the sake of upstate NY.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
I wonder if King was worried about
the issue of NY is (almost certainly) to lose two House seats in the 2011 re-districting. And what the Dem controlled state houses and Governor will be doing to his district.
So it's probably smart for him to try for this sort-of open seat (or at least one where it's not a true incumbent, but just a 2-year appointee) rather than deal with his newly designed district-to-be in his 2012 re-election effort.
Dave Meijas
isn't this the district Meijas ran in.  I heard he won a state senate race, any chance he runs again.  He nearly beat King in 2006.  

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I'm sure he'd look
At the race. But was Mejias really threatening King? I'm honestly asking this question because he lost by 12 points. Sure, that was the best performance by a Democrat since 92 when King first ran for the seat. But that could be just as attributable to Hillary, Spitzer and the Democratic wave. Is his performance really that much more impressive than his predecessor who was 7 points lower?
[ Parent ]
NY-Sen-B: King is "Preparing a Run" | 58 comments

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