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LA-04: Results Thread #2

by: James L.

Sat Dec 06, 2008 at 11:02 PM EST


Time for a fresh new thread.

RESULTS: LA SoS | Associated Press

11:54PM (David): In the end, Cao wins 50-47.
11:22PM (David): So LA-02 is D+28 (old PVI). There is no district that is as red as this one is blue - UT-03 tops out at R+26. This reminds me of IL-05 in 1994 (1990s PVI: D+11) - corrupt Dan Rostenkowski got beaten by the unknown Michael Flanagan, who got soundly thumped by Rod Blagojevich two years later. Hopefully whoever beats Cao in 2010 will be a bigger upgrade over Jefferson than Blago was over Rosto.
11:15PM: The AP calls it for Cao! LOL!
11:04PM: Damn, looks like we fell short. Fleming leads by 350 votes with 100% of precincts reporting.
James L. :: LA-04: Results Thread #2
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LA-04: Results Thread #2 | 206 comments
weee
Lets DO THIS!
Dammit!
300 votes...
Fleming appears to win

Or not
WTH just happened?
[ Parent ]
Yep...provisionals not counted yet, but...
it's not looking great. Is this the Melancon-Tauzin of 2008?
[ Parent ]
What % of votes are normally provisional?
350 seems like a lot to overcome in this dismal turnout election.  
VERY VERY FEW.
Take Bossier parish for the 2008 general.

Total votes cast for Obama or McCain: 45,416
Provisionals: 9

...

[ Parent ]
Yeah and a recount is not going to do anything...
Damn. That's a loss there. LOL if we lose LA-02.
[ Parent ]
Do provisionals usually help us in LA?

Dammit
Fleming is up 300 votes with everything in. Dammit.

And Jefferson's losing as well. Melancon might be the only congressional Dem left after tonight.

SHIT SHIT SHIT

Oh well
Now I've got my popcorn out for LA-02. Looks like Jefferson will win--barely.
Not looking good
Good here meaning voting for the awful candidate that will serve less than 2 years in Congress instead of the one that will serve two.
[ Parent ]
Were gonna lose them both
This really fucking sucks.  The Georgia loss and this are an awful start to 2009.  I wish Obama never won.  Now we are going to have to deal with this shit for the next four years.  
[ Parent ]
Nolan?
Is that you?
[ Parent ]
Dont start that shit
We got enough problems here.  
[ Parent ]
Problems with what?
Concern trolls wishing Obama lost?!?!?  Ya, that would really be helpful...
[ Parent ]
Oh Seriously
The Presidency matters much more.
[ Parent ]
Hey:
Johnny, pull yourself together and think positive. Even though we likely will have but one Democrat in the Louisiana delegation, just look and see how many more states have excellent progressive representatives who will work wonders in the next Congress. (i.e. VT, MA, NY)
[ Parent ]
Seriously?
You wish Obama never won?

You wish we didn't take back the White House because you're worried about losing a few congressional races?

You wish Obama never won, because four years of competent leadership in the White House is not worth the cost of following a few losing elections?

Wow...I focus on the 'election' part a lot more than the governing, but that's just an absurd statement.

[ Parent ]
Were not going to have another good election
Until 2012 at least.  Enjoy it.  
[ Parent ]
Hahahahaha n/t

[ Parent ]
Senate races will be good in '10..
Unless Obama is caught with Jack Abramoff and Monica Lewinsky at the same time!!
[ Parent ]
We might lose house seats
that we should have not won like ID-01, but I doubt we lose many senate seats unless something gets fucked up.  
[ Parent ]
You're damn right I will...
...if only when John Paul Stevens and Ruth Bader Ginsburg step down from the court.

I don't even need to start talking about the rest.

[ Parent ]
Exactly

[ Parent ]
In that case
Go bury your head in the sand for the next 4 years troll.
[ Parent ]
Goodbye, Johnny...
...or Bill, or Sean, or whatever your name is.
[ Parent ]
Yeah right
While we may indeed lose some House races, I think we could continue to make gains in the Senate. First off, we're defending fewer seats (even with the vacancies by Biden and Clinton), AND most of those seats are in favorable states for us. The only two Ds who could have trouble are Byron Dorgan (but only if ND Gov John Hoeven runs, which he is unlikely to do) or Ken Salazar (who's more likely to face a challenge from the left than the right). Rs, on the other hand, have two retirements (Martinez, Brownback) already and may face a number of others (Bond, Voinivich, and Grassley). Furthermore, one of their incumbents (Burr) holds the "jinx seat", where no one has been reelected since 1968.
[ Parent ]
Also
Not to mention that Richard Burr is unpopular and a complete asshole anyway.
[ Parent ]
You obviously have no idea how powerful the presidency is
Where have you been hiding this decade?
[ Parent ]
Big FUCKING deal.
It's a goddamn D+28 district, majority African American (you think Obama lost this one for us). You're a complete moron. Watch as Jefferson pulls it out, too.  
[ Parent ]
You wish Obama never won?
Ummm...more like you should shut the fuck up. Yup.
[ Parent ]
What's the point if Obama didn't win?
Are elections more important to you than the entire point of elections (governing)?
[ Parent ]
You got money riding on these house races or something?
Because that could be the absolute most absurd statement I've ever heard.
[ Parent ]
Oh well
LA-04 missed the boat.  The people chose the status quo and thus are going to get another irrelevant minority congressman who can do nothing for the 4th district.  
What worries me
Fleming is a nutter. Like, I felt dirty after going to his website. Nothing but God and guns all over the place.
[ Parent ]
Same as McCrery
It's no downgrade from their last congressman.
[ Parent ]
uh
Fleming wants to abolish the fair tax system and put in a 23% national sales tax. He also believes we should abolish social security and import immigrants from other countries for labor.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
WTF?
He also believes we should abolish social security and import immigrants from other countries for labor.  
 

Awesome idea?  Sounds a lot like this system.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S...

[ Parent ]
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
ZING!

And how true, too.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
And he can happily spout off those incredibly bad ideas
for as long as he wants in the minority. I think we're in for another 40 year long rule in the House. We're at what a 40 seat majority? And this is with mostly republican drawn congressional maps. We'll lock in most of these gains in 2010 and with the NEW New Deal we're creating a whole generation of solid Democrats. The republicans are failing and falling. There going to be down for a LONG time.
[ Parent ]
Why should we import immigrants?
Unemployment is rising.  
[ Parent ]
Any word on how the Ohio 15 recount went today?

They started counting today
Results expected tomorrow night.

http://www.dispatch.com/live/c...

[ Parent ]
It's not actually a recount
They're just counting provisional ballots.
[ Parent ]
An individual told me that in Louisiana
 the Democrats always win the elections outside the general election date.  This person is WRONG.
Carmouche failed in two places, BIG
Nachidotches, which he should have gotten a several hundred vote margin, and Red River where he should have gotten way more than 54% of the vote. Not a very good GOTV effort.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Well
If Fleming has indeed won by that very small margin, let Carmouche call for a recount, like in OH-15. They might as well do one.
[ Parent ]
You need to be very specific about the phrase
which is "the Democrat always wins the runoff." This wasn't a runoff.
[ Parent ]
any word
on Absentee ballots though?

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
3rd parties got 4.25%.

[ Parent ]
Check what I stated
"the Democrats always win the elections outside the general election date."

I didn't say a thig about a runoff.  

[ Parent ]
Well, I don't know where you heard that
because the CORRECT phrase of conventional wisdom in LA is "the Democrat always wins the runoff."
[ Parent ]
This is not a runoff
so I don't know what you are referring to...
[ Parent ]
You were referring incorrectly
to a non-applicable piece of elections lore. That's what I'm talking about.  
[ Parent ]
No I wasn't
I was specifically talking about elections outside the general election date.
[ Parent ]
Well, that's not the saying
it's just a bad paraphrase that someone apparently said to you. Neither here nor there.
[ Parent ]
Go back and read what I originally posted
It was "an individual".  It wasn't a "saying".  
[ Parent ]
Well, that individual
is clearly wrong. In any case, my suggestion to you is that "individual" was incorrectly paraphrasing a bit of Louisiana election lore that doesn't even apply tonight.  
[ Parent ]
Which is my point
in the first place.  The person was wrong.  I don't really care if he was paraphrasing some stupid saying, but the bottom line was that HE WAS WRONG.
[ Parent ]
Even that form of conventional wisdom doesn't hold.
Republicans won many of the runoffs in the Louisiana state legislative elctions last year, even in districts where Democrats had many more total votes in the primary.  Much of that had to do with turnout, which was much lower in the runoffs.
[ Parent ]
Right
It's long out of date, and was probably never true. Just a funny saying.
[ Parent ]
Exactly, this isn't a runoff
So the saying doesn't hold.
[ Parent ]
looking at Carmouche's numbers nad landrieu's
I'm shocked at how much he underperformed against her, and Landrieu isn't even from his part of the state. Landrieu won Nachidotches by about 8%, Red River by about 18, Bienville by 18, Bossier 59-39, and won Clairborne which he lost. He even underperformed by a percentage point in his political base of 30 years, a place where he could have won by padding his margin by a few more percentage points over her.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
66% of Orleans in and Cao leads there by 1000 votes.
LOL!
CNN has called it
for Cao!!!
AP also
[ Parent ]
We'll be hearing A LOT now...
About "voter backlash" blah blah blah in the days ahead...
[ Parent ]
I Like how AP calls it for Cao
but not Fleming.  
[ Parent ]
I don't know how good Cao would be
he was endorse by the Family Research counsel.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Jefferson
Jefferson wasn't exactly great on social issues either.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, but he voted for the Dem for speaker.

[ Parent ]
We have plenty
We have plenty of Dems to vote for Pelosi for this election cycle.  After 2010 Cao won't be there anyway.
[ Parent ]
He's set for life
as a lobbyist or something.

This was his lucky day.

[ Parent ]
At the very least
Cao sounds honest and ethical.  He has a very interesting and tragic personal story from his days in Vietnam as a youngster.
[ Parent ]
Seriously?
I think they'd better hold off a bit.
[ Parent ]
good
at least we got rid of that moron. we'll have that seat back in 2 years, well worth the wait.
[ Parent ]
Well
Obama gained a couple hundred votes with provisionals in the general in Caddo. Carmouche would probably be lucky to gain 100 this time, however. Still it's definitely worth watching the provisionals.
Recount? N/T

Very low turnout in Democratic
precincts of New Orleans.
Is it?
Or are they just precincts with few people left post-Kartina?
[ Parent ]
LA-02
This probably won't be popular, but I think it would be good if Cao won. We have to hold Democratic representatives to the same standard we hold Republicans. Scumbags shouldn't be in Congress, regardless of party. Jefferson is an embarrassment to the Democratic Party and the sooner he is gone, the better. And there's basically no way Cao would hold the district in 2010, unless he becomes the most liberal Republican in the House, and even that wouldn't guarantee it (see Lampson, Nick).

Granted, that would also spur on the crowing of Republicans about some kind of anti-Democratic shift in the electorate, as if LA-02 were some kind of bellwether. But it's not like there's a narrative to be built 23 months from the next election.

Then just...
Remove his ass, without the conviction...
You don't need a conviction to remove a member.  I also doubt that it'd make the Republicans look good if they tries to vote against removing him.
[ Parent ]
We're (read New Orleans) is stuck with Cao for 2 years...
Jefferson would have been only until he was convicted.
[ Parent ]
Tough
You (read New Orleans) have had plenty of opportunites to replace Jefferson with a better Dem. Hasn't happened.
[ Parent ]
exactly
jefferson should have been primaried out
[ Parent ]
Yep we screwed up twice
In 2004 and 2008 with crowded primaries. Whats worse was the Democrat that faced Jefferson (Helena Moreno) was just as Jefferson. She was a major DINO who had ties to David Vitter. It was definetly a hold your nose type situtation between picks one of those two clowns. I was hoping it would of been Cederic Richmond that beat dollar bill but he didn't even come close. I hope he runs in '10 againist Cao. Either him or Karen Carter.
[ Parent ]
Oh
No one will be crying over Jefferson's loss. I'm glad for his district that they'll hopefully have a new Dem Representative who can bring money back to the district and serve on committees after the 2010 elections come around. As far as appropriations go, I can't imagine Cao is worse for them than Jefferson.
[ Parent ]
Good Riddance to Jefferson
I said yesterday monrning I would have voted for Cao.  Good riddance to Jefferson--he's an embarassment to the party and we're better off without him.  Besides, it's not like we need an extra vote to get things done in the House.
[ Parent ]
1994 repeat hopefully
LONGTORSO, YOUR COMMENT SHOULD BE POPULAR

The Democrats benefited greatly from dumping that crook Dan Rostenkowski in 1994 -- and should benefit again from dumping another crook.

For the record, Rostenkowski got something like one-third of the vote in 1994, losing to a conservative named Michael Flanagan.  In turn, Flanagan lost just two years later with one-third of the vote to current governor Blagoyevich, who admittedly hasn't exactly been a beacon of ethics as governor.

If Cao misrepresents his district as badly as Flanagan, he will deserve to be routed as well.  If he changes and decides to represent everyone, who knows.

Shalom,
ZWrite

[ Parent ]
So...
Will Cao start a new republican Asian-American caucus with himself being the one and only member?
AP call seems very premature
I'm predicting pretty much a tossup now... whoever wins, he won't do so with more than 51-52%. Precincts left in Orleans are almost certainly from very heavily Jefferson-friendly areas.

See my Dkos diary

That was my feeling, too

[ Parent ]
Recount In LA-04?
Since it's only 300 votes between Fleming and Carmouche?
No
They're machines, nothing to really recount. There will be provisional ballots, however.
[ Parent ]
What's going on in LA-02?
Fixing the votes for Jefferson? They just stopped reporting...
That's what I'm thinking
Some last minute payoffs to the right people is possible.
[ Parent ]
God
If we have to wait for the cash to thaw...
[ Parent ]
Nah,
they've got to wait for the letter of credit from Nigeria to come in by fax.

heh.

[ Parent ]
I'm going to make a note here:
Please don't start worrying about vote-fixing when the rest of Orleans parish comes in. It should be very heavily pro-Jefferson - that's to be expected, as what has reported so far are the relatively anti-Jefferson areas. See my analysis here, please.
[ Parent ]
Cao seems to be part of a weird religious group
http://josephcaoforcongress.co...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S...

This "Society of Jesus" sounds like a very strange and shadowy group.

...you've never heard of the Jesuits before?

[ Parent ]
Well, there ARE a lot of Jesuit conspiracy theories...

[ Parent ]
Pardon me if I'm wrong
But I think the Society of Jesus is just the Jesuits
[ Parent ]
You got to make sure you know when
to throw a snake and when not to throw a snake in worship service...
[ Parent ]
its the Jesuits
Loyala founded them, they are a catholic organization. A lot of major colleges are run by them; Fordham, Loyala and Boston College right off the top of my head are Jesuit schools.

It's  a very popular catholic society. I go to St. John's and am Catholic I have to hear about the Jesuits all the time.


[ Parent ]
This is rich!
You have heard of the Jesuits, right? Or is this snark?
[ Parent ]
typical post-election opposing party pick-up
It seems that after every Presidential election (GWB the exception), the party that loses the White House often scores an unexpected win in a special election.  
Absolutely nothing to do with Obama though
Let the Repubs crow for a while - they'll be cringing on January 20th. Besides, good riddance to the corrupt SOB.
[ Parent ]
They'll be happy on January 20th
They finally dont have to defend Bush anymore.  
[ Parent ]
It's an R+7 district (LA-04)
the other is a D+28 district (read: Democrats get close to 78% of the vote). Jefferson is the one and only reason that he lost.
[ Parent ]
It will be a R+12 seat soon
McCain won it by 19 points. Obama won by 7 nationally. It's trending D.
[ Parent ]
Not according to NOLA.com
Obama carried LA-2 with 74% of the vote.  That might bring it down to D+17 (except it was probably huigher in 2004, pre-Katrina).

Celebrating with Cao, according to the local paper: Steve Scalise and his wife and Democratic primary loser Helena Moreno.  Scalise has gone from nowhere to being a major GOP power. Maybe he'll take on Vitter in a nasty primary in 2010?

[ Parent ]
Um
Populista was refering to LA-4, not LA-2.

While I'm surprised we lost LA-2, I'm not unhappy about it. Dollar Bill had to go, and if this was the best way to do so, so be it. Plus, Cao will be a one-term congressman anyway.

[ Parent ]
Losing these two is a VERY, VERY small setback. Nothing to dispair about.
The 4th was a GOP seat already. This is LA. You know the McCain state.  Plus with Jindal as Gov. following Blanco, the GOP has a better rep generally in LA, than the country as a whole.      

Jefferson got beat because he was corrupt.  I say horrah, be glad to be rid of him. He was baggage for the party for every day he stayed in Congress. Now Sean and Rush will have to find a new punching bag.  Now Jefferson's trial will get far less publicity, and thus create less harm to the Dems generally.

Cao will be the Nick Lampson (in reverse)for 2010, so the Dems will pick up at LEAST that seat.  

It would have been nice to add the 4th to the D column, and it always sucks to lose one so close.

But, these results coupled with GA-Sen., will serve as a reminder that the GOP ain't dead, its just down. So don't govern as if they can't come back, because they can (and will eventually).  By extention, that will help Obama stay in the center-lane of politics, which is exactly where he needs to stay.    

Indeed
I still think his biggest problems are likely to come from some on the left. If the country is behind him that won't matter too much.
[ Parent ]
Chris Bowers
has a diary up on OpenLeft saying tht Obama's talk of bipartisanship and his centerism is what caused the losses and everyone in the thread agrees with him. This is the problem facing the Democratic Party. A loss like this means to some he needs to govern from the center lane, a loss like this means to others he needs to become an ideologue.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I'm sure running to the left would have worked in Georgia and LA-04. This is why I can't stand the Bowers/Stoller crowd.
[ Parent ]
Same here
Bowers rankled me with his absolute ignorance of Virginia politics (I'm not from VA, but I have visited it many times and have a fondness for it). Stoller, well, the words I would use to describe him would get me in a lot of trouble so I won't use them.
[ Parent ]
Yeah I hear ya
That's why I don't go to OpenLeft because I can't stand Bowers/Stoller and their purist diaries. Running to the left in GA and LA-04 would of made Martin and Carmouche lost more. The problem wasn't idology, it was turnout. In Georgia in order for Jim Martin to win he would need heavy black turnout to do it and it didn't happen, the same goes for Carmouche. If it wasn't for the hurricane and the general election was held on election day Carmouche would of won because there were more of his base out voting and he got more votes than Fleming.

All this means is you chalk it up as a loss and move on. Just because you lost these races dosen't mean you have to either govern from the center or the left, it means that in some parts of the country (espically places where Obama underpreformed) a Democrat cannot get elected, it's the facts.

Don't believe that bi-partianship that Obama has been calling for loss this race like that crap OpenLeft been spreading, turnout and demographics did it. If nobody approved of the bi-partianship Obama is doing then he would be getting high marks in the polls taken about his transition and his picks.

It's because of this crap that I think Chris Bowers and Matt Stoller are nothing but glorified purist hacks and nothing more.

Sorry about the rant, but these types of people on the netroots really anger me, and i'm sorry if I offended James, David or everyone else on the netroots about OpenLeft but I had to say it.

[ Parent ]
Chris' theory
is that Obama's move to the center turned off his base voters and they didn't show up.

The ignorance here is that he's not paying attention to sky high approval ratings Obama has, over 90% among Democrats, and the sky high approvals for this cabinet picks and how he's handling the econmic crisis...I've seen it anywhere between 70% and 90%.

And of all places where he'd be the most popular right now, I'd assume that it's among the black community down South, which is who we needed to get out. Maybe Vermont isn't as pleased with him as they were a month ago.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
I have been surprised at the very low black turnout
in both Georgia and Louisiana.  I dont think its ever been this low and I am trying to figure out why.  
[ Parent ]
Maybe they feel they did their business November 4
And that was enough. Can't blame them really.

Stoller is an idiot. He banned me merely for saying both sides on the bailout argument were engaging in demagoguery. Seriously. Not that I care. He did me a favor since I much prefer hanging out with the grownups at SSP.

Chris is better but he is way off base with this. Reminds me of when he kept bleeting that Obama's position on FISA was the reason for miniscule movement to McCain in the tracking polls.  

[ Parent ]
I've actually read it now
Just stopping after the bullets would have been nailing it. The rest is nonsense.
[ Parent ]
Actual Numbers?
Is there some actual analysis of black turnout or is this just guesswork?  I know there are no exit polls.
[ Parent ]
Minority and low-income turnout
is always bad in special elections.

Also, I think in the Georgia problem had more to do with the fact that Martin couldn't get within three points on Election Day, so even record black turnout like we saw that day wouldn't win it for him, so they just didn't bother. I also think Martin was stupid for campaigning with Ludacris. I was reading some message boards on Facebook from young black Georgians who were kinda offended and taken back by then. As if all they listen to is Ludacris? I read a few comments saying that older black voters (the families of these college kids) were turned off by that as many don't hold rappers in high regard. The black community didn't really like Jim Martin in the end.

In New Orleans, the simple fact is that Jefferson was corrupt and there was no other black candidate to vote for. I think it would've been interesting if a black candidate ran here as a Republican to see what would've happened. Cao was an Independent until recently...I wonder if he will go back to going Indy at some point again. Realistically, Jefferson wasn't a progressive voice, so the votes won't change too much.

And in LA-04, Carmouche was never favored and the fact he fell that short, way outperforming Obama, is a good thing.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
I understand your anger
SSP is the only national blog I visit these days. Daily Kos lost me in 2007 in the purity uprising over the Iraq funding bill, and the recent Lieberman fiasco has only cemented my distrust of them. I'm mixed on Markos: I admire what he has achieved not only within the blogosphere but also his own life, but he can be very arrogant and I couldn't stand the way he chummed the waters to get Armando and his crowd into a frenzy. I used to like MyDD as well. I really liked Singer (can't recall his first name), but Jerome Armstrong really alienated me with his concern troll hit jobs on Obama (as distrustful of Hillary as I was, even I never went as far as he did with Obama).

BTW, doesn't it feel good to vent these frustrations? I find it quite helpful :-).

[ Parent ]
Like the Bizarro Nut Winger
Just like the nut wingers always blame every loss on the candidate not being conservative enough, Bowers blames every Democrat loss on the not being progressive enough.  Sometimes he displays a real ignorance of where the electorate really is.
[ Parent ]
Bowers creamed his pants
when Nancy Boyda took a stand against FISA, talking about how she's a true progressive in a red seat and will be a force for Democrats in Kansas for years.

After she lost, he was quiet on her. I even tried to e-mail him and ask him why he thought she lost, never got a response.

Boyda lost because the moderate females (and some males too) who voted for Sebelius in 2006 voted for Boyda over the wingnut Ryun. Lynn Jenkins WAS a moderate female and she was able to pull those votes back to her as they voted for McCain in a Presidential year.

That simple...not everyone loves progressive politics, Kansas-02 doesn't, neither does the majority in Georgia, or Louisiana, as neither Jefferson nor Carmouche were progressive.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
If Jefferson loses
I think he will be the first black incumbent Democrat to ever lose to a non-Democrat in a general election.  
Carol Mosley Braun?
Or are you thinking just the House?
[ Parent ]
House, sorry
But even then, I should have said "to a person who was either not a Democrat or not black," as I think Chaka Fattah won his first election running in a 3rd party slot.
[ Parent ]
What about
Carol Moseley Braun?
[ Parent ]
I think he means in the House
Losing statewide would seem less remarkable
[ Parent ]
House
Though I suppose I should have said "in the modern era." I think there must have been some black Republicans who lost in the redeemer south.
[ Parent ]
Gary Franks
Gary Franks, a black Republican from CT, lost to white Democrat Jim Maloney in 1996.  I don't know the racial composition of the district but it probably was not a majority minority district.

A half hour search of House records failed to unearth a single case of a black Democrat losing to either a white Democrat or a white Republican although plenty lost in primaries to black Democrats.  For example, Cynthis McKinney losing to Denise Majette and later to John Lewis.

[ Parent ]
Right
I think I'm correct that no black incumbent Democrat has lost to a non-black person in the modern era.

This is a first.

[ Parent ]
Slight correction
John Lewis and Cynthia McKinney come from different districts. In 2006, it was Hank Johnson who beat her.
[ Parent ]
Your right
It was Hank Johnson.

Funny thing, I always assumed Denise Majette was white just from the name.  No way.

[ Parent ]
Hurricanes cost us in LA again
We would have easily held LA-02 had the general been on the real election day and likely won LA-04 thanks to black turnout for Obama.
I was just thinking the very same thing
But no big deal in the grand scheme of things.
[ Parent ]
what about displaced AA?
Probably hurt us in states like LA...where Obama and Landreiu in particular significantly underperformed polls.  
[ Parent ]
Well the truth is Gustav and Michael Jackson
Probably turned a 4-3 advantage into 6-1 deficit in the state delegation. Long term, Katrina has moved a state that was already trending Republican heavily in that direction.
[ Parent ]
And Jefferson himself of course being a crook
But he would have won had he run on the same ticket as Obama which was the larger point.
[ Parent ]
Final results in
Jefferson loses by just under 2,000 votes. Good riddance, and let's take the seat back in 2010.
He came close in the end
31,296 46.82% William J. Jefferson, D  -  
1,880 2.81% Malik Rahim, G  -  
548 .82% Gregory W. Kahn, L  -  
33,122 49.55% Anh "Joseph" Cao, R  
Good bye frozen cash!

Crazy stuff
A few years ago who would have guessed Melancon would be the only Dem left in the LA congressional delegation?
Unbelievable
republicans won three House races in this state this year with less than 50 percent of the vote: LA- 2, 4, and 6--mostly due to third and fourth party candidates. Unbelievable.
Definitely not in this case.
Everyone who would have supported Jefferson did so in this case. If only two candidates were on the ballot, all the 3rd-party supporters would have gone with Cao, or not voted.
[ Parent ]
They kept two in Minnesota
with under 50% too.

Tnis is probably why the Canadian liberals are forming a coalition.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Catfish Kelly
Catfish Kelly took 3.5% in LA-4.  Just looking at his website, he looks like an big economic populist.  Presumably, Carmouche would have won if he took something like 60% of Kelly's voters.
[ Parent ]
INSTANT RUN-OFF VOTING!
In all elections, everywhere.  Simple as that.  I wonder if we could get it passed here in MN with a DFL governor, it's talked about a lot.  

That ballot would need some damn good instructions.

[ Parent ]
I predicted this race's margin within 1000 votes!
That was surprisingly accurate...

See my Dkos diary: here

Frustrating for me since I live in Louisiana
I didn't mean Jefferson would have won without those two. I meant that we lost three seats to candidates who couldn't even garner 50 percent. We should get back the second, and maybe the sixth in two years with a good candidate. But, this loss tonight hurts. Carmouche is probably the only Democrat who could have won this district. He probably could have held it for a long time, and potentially set up another Democrat to take his place. I don't think he has the fire to run again in two years. If he did, I wouldn't like his chances. We had an opportunity here to take a 4-3 lead in the House delegation in the state earlier in the year. But external factors like hurricanes and third party candidates changed the balance from a likely 4-3 in our favor to 6-1 in the other party's favor. A win by Carmouche in a republican district would have offset that loss in the sixth. I don't see us winning the fourth anytime soon. Frustrating year here.  
Yes, Bery Disappointing
I was thinking the same thing.  Cazayoux and Carmouche both seemed like grade A candidates who fit their districts well and could have held them for years.  Both were undone by the bad luck of third party candidates and, for Carmouche, a hurricane changing the general election date.  I'm pessimistic that the circumstances will be as favorable for Democrats in either district any time soon.  I happy about the result in LA-2 however.
[ Parent ]
Yeah it was dissappointing
I don't see Carmouche coming back for a rematch but I do see Don Cazayoux possibly challenging Bill Cassidy in 2010. He knows that seat was stolen from him and he's the type of Dem that can get elected in LA-05.
[ Parent ]
I hope so
I hope Cazayoux comes back, but I'm afraid I'm pessimistic about these two districts.  The pendulum of public opinion swung very strongly in our favor in 2008; the Republicans seem due for a comeback now that they're completely out of power.  Also, I thought Obama could bring in lots of new voters, especially youth and blacks who would vote Democratic.  While he may have lost an even larger share of the white vote than most Democrats, I thought lots of those voters would be open to splitting their vote and voting for a moderate, white Democrat.  We won't have that advantage in 2010 (and, of course, Carmouche didn't get it this year because of the delayed election).  And, unlike this year, the Rs will have the advantage of incumbency.  2008 seemed like a great opportunity for us, but unfortunately, third party candidates and the delayed election cost us.
[ Parent ]
I don't think the pendulum was that much with us on election day 2008
It had already started swinging back by election day.  There were very few unexpected victories on either side, IMO.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
2010
The DCCC should recruit good candidates and run hard against Fleming and Bill Cassidy in 2010 or else they'll be in for life.
These guys will be in for life unfortunately
We badly dropped the ball in both LA-04 and LA-06.  
[ Parent ]
"Dropped the ball"?
Not sure how Ds dropped the ball.  These were always tough districts for us.  But, we recruited strong candidates.  Unfortuantely, I think we were fatally hurt by third party candidates and, for Carmouche, the delayed election.  I don't blame the party for either of those.
[ Parent ]
I hate to put it in such crass terms...
...but Katrina gave Republicans their own little fiefdom in Louisiana.  It gave us the White House.

Notwithstanding the glorious ouster of Jefferson, and the practical inevitability of LA-02 being back in our column two years from now, there is an upside to this: with only one Democrat in the Louisiana delegation, I think we all know which side is gonna suffer when the state loses a House seat.

if the Republicans are in control
there's still more mischief they can do. It's mostly a question of what the court will allow wrt LA-02.  
[ Parent ]
Just for some context, the Presidential results
CD         Obama      McCain
LA-01     25.34%     73.05%
LA-02     74.29%     24.70%
LA-03     36.62%     61.38%
LA-04     39.58%     59.27%
LA-05     36.72%     61.99%
LA-06     41.35%     57.31%
LA-07     34.96%     63.38%
And?
The results in the state this year shouldn't just frustrate Louisiana Democrats but Democrats in all states. They should also embarass all of us. Regardless of what happens in 2010 or beyond this is going to be an embarassing two years. Off the top of my head, with states that have at least 5 evs this one now posts the ugliest ratio of any of the House delegations in the 50 states: 1-6. Embarassing.
[ Parent ]
I'd think the Republicans would have more to be embarrassed about
What with being relegated to a regional party and all...
[ Parent ]
I'm not making any inferences.
These are numbers, pure numbers. I'm not making connotations or any normative statements. Geez.
[ Parent ]
Obama did worse than Kerry in LA
He lost LA-04 in a landslide, so it's pretty amazing that Carmouche came so close.

LA-02...well at least we teach our corrupt Congressmen a lesson. I'm looking at you Alaska.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Local and national Democrats are different
in this part of the country.  Democrats like Bobby Bright and Parker Griffith won districts where Obama got only around 40% of the vote.  
[ Parent ]
And Caramouche fell 350 votes short
in a special election where turnout wasn't great...that's good for us IMO.

and Jefferson, at least we have standards...he wasn't exactly the progressive ball of sunshine anyway and we can get one in LA-02.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Who cares...
seriously, if there is anything Obama 2008 taught Dems, its that you plant seeds where it'll rain and ignore the dry spots. So Obama did worse than Kerry in LA, big whup. The state will lose a CD in 2 yrs; it has a significant black population, ergo it must have at least 1 black (dem friendly) district, so even if the Republicans own the rest (which they don't), they are about to give up one of theirs. Obama planted seeds in FL (+2 seats in 2010), NC(+1) and NV (+1). Another thing to look at, the GOP's strenghth is only in the South, nearly all of which are section 5 (Voting Rights Act) states..so with Obama in the White House for 4 and probably 8 years (and a Dem majority to get more liberal judges on the federal bench), the GOP can't get to max out seats in TX and GA w/o (a) overextending themselves and leaving some of their own vulnerable and (b) passing the smell test with a Democratic Justice Department that oversees these states' redistricting.

So relax, the Dems, to get a governing coalition, should keep fighting in growing southern states (FL,NC,GA and TX) but shouldn't cry over OK, AR, WV or LA. You can't win them all, but you only need effective control to get 100% of your agenda through. Besides, when the rest of the holdouts realize their not on the train, maybe they'll consider adopting a few alterations to "fit in".

[ Parent ]
Not Sure About Your VRA Statement
I really don't know the answer to this, but I'm far from sure that the VRA prevents redistricting to make black majority districts even more black.  I know it would prevent the total breakup of ablack majority districts withi a state, but it's quite a different thing to strengthen such districts.
[ Parent ]
Massachusetts
Massachusetts has the most lopsided congressional district; 10-0 Democrats.

I'm also not getting your point about this being an embarassing two years--we've got the white house, senate and house.  Things are looking good for a change.

[ Parent ]
Lets not get ahead of ourselves
Talk to me in two years.  
[ Parent ]
Huh?
I was responding to this statement:  "Off the top of my head, with states that have at least 5 evs this one now posts the ugliest ratio of any of the House delegations in the 50 states: 1-6."  Two years, ten years, a thousand years, it doesn't matter--Massachusetts currently has the most lopsided congressional delegation.
[ Parent ]
And?
The results in the state this year shouldn't just frustrate Louisiana Democrats but Democrats in all states. They should also embarass all of us. Regardless of what happens in 2010 or beyond this is going to be an embarassing two years. Off the top of my head, with states that have at least 5 evs this one now posts the ugliest ratio of any of the House delegations in the 50 states: 1-6. Embarassing.
[ Parent ]
How does this embarass me?
I'm a PA Dem and this dosen't embarass me at all. It dosen't embarass me that a extremely corrupt Democrat got beat be a guy who is a sure thing to become a one term wonder in Congress and it dosen't embarass m that we came close to winning a district that John McCain won in a landslide. I don't like that Carmouche lost because i'm glad Jefferson got the boot and it dosen't bother me that it took a Republican to do it.

Seriously shut the hell you because you have absolutely no idea your talking about.

[ Parent ]
Off the top of my head
Massachusetts is an all-Dem state. New York has a huge Dem to Republican ratio as well.
[ Parent ]
Other states are uglier;
Nebraska has 5 and is all Republican.

On our side, you got Massachustts 10-0, Maryland 7-1, New York 26-3, Connecticut 5-0, New Mexico 3-0 (from 1-3)  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Nebraska has only 3 districts
Not 5.
[ Parent ]
5 electoral votes I meant


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Hey Jeff
How did you compile these numbers? And are you planning on including them in our Prez-by-CD spreadsheet?

Thanks man.

[ Parent ]
They're up.
http://spreadsheets.google.com...

Absentees, unfortunately, are not divided in parishes split between precincts.

[ Parent ]
ugh
The Republican Party turning into the regional party of the South has negative consequences for Southern Democrats, unfortunately.


I'm glad Jefferson got beat
Cao for Senate 2010?
This result got me thinking whats to stop newly elected rep. Cao from running for David Vitters seat in the Republican Primary. He can use a combo of anti-corruption and family values. I'm not sure if anti-courruption platform would fly with the GOP but the family values crap sure worked out for Vitter.  
he might as well
because there's no way he's keeping this seat.
[ Parent ]
Exactly thats why I think he may do it.
This result might have more blessings then we thought.  
[ Parent ]
I think think of several ways
for him to make something for himself out of this fluke.

I hope he isn't successful in politics, but in a way he just won the lottery.

[ Parent ]
Yeah I think a primary might hurt Vitter though.
Just saying if I was in that Republicans shoes i'd probably look for this to be my next stop hell I just won LA-02 why not go for the Family values senator that was caught in daipers with hookers I can't win here.  
[ Parent ]
I'd just be looking for a gig on Fox News

[ Parent ]
Indeed
But fox news doesn't like minories :/.  
[ Parent ]
heh

[ Parent ]
Probabaly a Bad Move for Him
Probably a bad move for him politically.  Taking on the incumbent does not usually go over very well in the party.  And, although I agree he's extremely unlikely to be re-elected in 2010, there's lots of statewide offices and appointed positions that he might aspire to if he stays in the party's good graces.  And, he's relatively young at 41, so he got a potentially long career ahead of him in politics if he doesn't piss off the party.
[ Parent ]
Is there a paper trail in LA-04?
Even if not, there should totally be a recount.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
No Paper trail
All electronic. But it looks like Carmouche might fight this. He's not conceding and if waiting for the provisionals so maybe he'll wait until all the votes are counted and ask for a recount.
[ Parent ]
I would certainly fight it
It was awfully suspicious how just enough votes came in for Fleming with that final Bossier dump and how they waited so long to do it.  
[ Parent ]
Interesting Background About Cao
He's a community organizer. How ironic.
He Sounds Good
Just reading his campaign web site, he has an admirable background and his focus seems to be almost entirely on local issues.

And, I just discovered, he went to Baylor at the same time I did (don't remember him), so I'm beginning to like this guy!

http://josephcaoforcongress.co...

[ Parent ]
Agreed
The better man won in LA-02, political differences aside.  He has one of those "American dream" stories which is always nice to hear.  

Cao will probably be very conservative on social issues, but then again Jefferson was no liberal anyway in that respect.  I suspect Cao will give in and vote with democrats on many economic issues out of political necessity, unless he plans to run for something else in 2010 which is possible.

[ Parent ]
Cao
With the Jesuit background, he's almost certainly socially conservative.  His website did make one mention of market-based health care solutions or something like that, so he may be economically conservative as well.  Although, it was a pretty vague statement, so who knows and I wouldn't be surprised if he's somewhat economically moderate.  At least with his background, I can't help but think that he'll have genuine compassion for those who are less fortunate and won't be a complete conservative ideologue.  Regardless of how he votes, however, I doubt he'll ever be re-elected.
[ Parent ]
No run-off rules?
I thought you needed 50% + 1 to win in Louisiana?  
Not in federal races
The LA legislature got rid of the runoff for federal races but retained them for state races.
[ Parent ]
Early LA-02 2010 prediction
Generic non-corrupt Black Democrat - 66%
Cao - 34%

Cao's ceiling is roughly the high 30's if he votes like a complete RINO.

LA-04: Results Thread #2 | 206 comments

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