Premium Sponsor


Featured Sponsor


Our Sponsors


Ad Networks

Advertise Liberally

Buy an ad on all of the top liberal blogs with just one click.

Site Stats

LA-04: Results Thread

by: James L.

Sat Dec 06, 2008 at 9:11 PM EST


The time is upon us.

RESULTS: LA SoS | Associated Press

11:02PM: This thread is getting stuffy -- let's continue this conversation over here.
10:54PM: The last few Caddo precincts are now in, and have cut Carmouche's lead down to a bit over 1800 votes. This looks like it'll be very, very close.
10:46PM (David): So 90% of the precincts have reported in Caddo, while about half have in Bossier. Bossier is going 58-36 for Fleming right now. If that margin holds, we should win. If it gets redder, we'll probably lose.
10:45PM: Eight more precincts from Caddo report, and Carmouche is now up by 2200 votes.
10:38PM (David): Check this out: In LA-02, Republican Anh Cao is leading 53-43 right now. Wild!
10:35PM: It's all Bossier and Caddo now. 61 precincts left -- 37 from Bossier and 24 from Caddo. Carmouche currently leads by about 1850 votes.
10:26PM: 535 precincts in, and Carmouche leads by 3300 votes. However, a great deal of the outstanding vote is in Bossier Parish, which will hurt us. Looks like this could go down to the wire...
10:12PM: 403 precincts in now, and Carmouche leads by under 1900 votes, based on a strong romping in the early returns from Shreveport. Note that Obama just barely edged McCain here, while Carmouche so far has racked up a 2-to-1 lead in Caddo Parish.
10:02PM: Another Caddo batch in, which has completely offset Fleming's gains from Beauregard and Grant -- with 377 precincts reporting, Carmouche is back up by 1700 votes or so. Caddo has under two-thirds of its vote left to report.
9:56PM: Finally, we're getting some numbers from the conservative Bossier Parish -- and it's helped cut down Carmouche's lead down to 430 votes with 277 precincts reporting. Still looking pretty good overall, though.
9:51PM: A blast of votes in from Caddo and Bienville, and now Carmouche is ahead by 2400 votes with 229 precincts reporting.
9:46PM: 141 precincts in, and Fleming is now back up by about 165 votes. So far, though, Carmouche is winning a few counties that Obama lost (Bienville, DeSoto, Grant, Natchitoches, Red River, and Webster), and a lot of votes are left to count in Caddo. I haven't run any numbers, but so far I'd say that this is looking much better than I anticipated.
9:42PM: 102 precincts in, and Carmouche leads by 485 votes.
9:39PM: 83 precincts in, and Team Blue now leads by 450 votes. We're starting to see some more votes coming in from Caddo (Shreveport, Carmouche's base).
9:35PM: 64 precincts in (exactly 10%), and Carmouche now leads by about 340 votes.
9:32PM: Geaux 'Mouche! Fleming leads by just 37 votes with 50 precincts reporting.
9:29PM: In the comments, conspiracy posts some good county baselines. Basically, Obama only won Caddo here in November. So far, the 'Mouche is winning a few more counties, and running closer elsewhere. 49-48 for Fleming now.
9:25PM: 19 precincts reporting, and it's 50-48 Fleming.
9:24PM: 10 precincts in now, and Fleming is up by 52-46.
9:11PM: With just 5 of 640 precincts reporting, Fleming leads by 59-39.
James L. :: LA-04: Results Thread
Tags: , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
LA-04: Results Thread | 244 comments
What Parish is Shreveport in?

Caddo

[ Parent ]
Caddo
Carmouche is going to have to win there by at least 15 points to win districtwide.  
[ Parent ]
Gaining slowing but surely
Im starting to feel better about this one
If Carmouche can hold these percentages and then win Caddo by 13%-15%, he will win.  
Here comes Caddo!
Just the absentees/early votes
Which are strongly Republican in Louisiana.  
[ Parent ]
Well we're leading that
[ Parent ]
54-44 now..
On a seperate note, I will be pissed if the Green costs us the seat.
Anyone know the ideology of "Catfish"
All I can tell is that he's an independent.

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog
Not Sure But.....
I type his name in Google, looking for his website, and after the main site, this link came up in the search: http://www.chesterkelley.com/h...

Says in the page title he's a Republican.

Just from browsing the main page of his site though, he seems to be a populist. That's just my take from skimming the page.

[ Parent ]
McCain/Obama percentages
Obama won Caddo, McCain all the rest.

Caddo 51-48
Bossier 72-28
Vernon 76-22
Natchitoches 53-46
DeSoto 56-43
Beauregard 76-22
Webster 63-36
Sabine 75-23
Claiborne 55-44
Bienville 51-49
Grant 81-17
Red River 54-45
Allen 67-30

Check out the Landrieu results...
Pretty representative of what a win might look like:

http://uselectionatlas.org/RES...

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog

[ Parent ]
Did Landrieu win the district?

[ Parent ]
Yes
by about her statewide average.  She won all of the counties but Bossier(39%), Vernon(40%), Sabine(38%), and Grant(33%).  
[ Parent ]
Not sure but she won every county but three
And the racial backlash against Obama was well pronounced in LA. I think comparing the margins is helpful and she won the state in a competitive race which is comparable to this situation. Hopefully Carmouche out performs significantly in Caddo in his home county. I don't think Landrieu is from this area of the state either.

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog
[ Parent ]
Grant is only partially in the district
[ Parent ]
I'm pretty sure...
She's from the NOLA area. Didn't her brother Mitch recently consider running for NOLA Mayor? And wasn't her father NOLA Mayor?

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
Closer and closer...
Fleming is leading 4489-4329.  I've got my fingers crossed.
What's the over/under here?
Does anyone know what margins we have to get where in order to win?

Your go-to source for great sarcasm
Don't get crushed everywhere - Win Caddo big.

[ Parent ]
Looking good in Webster
Which Landrieu barely won. Could be a "swing county"?

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog
Down 200 votes
I know its early, but could we be talking recount?
after a few precincts come in?

[ Parent ]
Less than 80 now
but I'll bet that changes.
[ Parent ]
Results
Carmouche is ahead!
Carmouche takes the lead!!!

lead
and carmouche takes the lead
Arg! Not so fast
[ Parent ]
I think we're going to win
Look at Natchitoches. The GOP down there really works to get their folks to early vote or absentee vote. The Dems down here didn't until this year.  
Fleming ahead again.

Now we're winning!
[ Parent ]
This is going to be an interesting night... :D
N/T

Your go-to source for great sarcasm
up again
Carmouche is up again
past 50%
pulling ahead!

being normal is for the mediocre.
Really?
What are the %s now?

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
Go Carmouche
Go Carmouche! It'd be great for LA to have another Blue Dog.
Well...
Outside NOLA, Blue Dog is the best we can get in Louisiana.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
Good
Nothing wrong with that.
[ Parent ]
What's the deal with catfish?
I'm amused that there's still nothing in
from LA-02. NO always reports late, doesn't it?
They have to check the freezer first

[ Parent ]
They're waiting for the votes to thaw.

[ Parent ]
The old joke is that
the party boss in the corrupt big city would call up the campaign manager who'd bought him off after everyone else had reported and ask "how many do you need?"
[ Parent ]
Yeah, having done a few of these in the past...
I can tell you that they always lag behind other areas of the state.
[ Parent ]
caddo parish
caddo was the only parish to vote for obama and has 158 0f 640 precincts in the district,it is just starting to report (4 precincts in so far)meaning that a big chunk of the remaining vote is in relatively pro-carmouche areas (154 out of 518 precincts are in caddo alone)
I expect Shreveport to report last.

[ Parent ]
cnn.com has parish by parish results

Well
So does the LA SOS.
[ Parent ]
LA-02 starting to report
Cao is ahead of Jefferson, but by only 400 votes or so.
heheh
You know, it would be kinda funny if we lost that seat while winning the other one.  
[ Parent ]
I'd enjoy losing LA-02
just about the only rep I'd like to leave the Democratic Party is Jefferson.
[ Parent ]
You know by now
I've learned that absolutely nothing will ever surprise me about Louisiana ;)

Your go-to source for great sarcasm
[ Parent ]
The whole state is screwy

[ Parent ]
It would be amazing if we lost LA-02
Cao would be a dead man walking for the next two years.  This would be like a Democrat holding AL-06(R+25).
[ Parent ]
No credible Democrat
should ever lose LA-02. Jefferson. . .will probably pull it out tonight on the black majority alone.  
[ Parent ]
one term wonder,
like Dan Gowski or whatever who Jan Schokowsky's districti n Chiacgo because the guy got caught in scandal in 1994. Rod Blagoojevich, Blagojovich now, beat him 64-36 the next time around.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Rep. Michael Patrick Flanagan (R-Illinois 5th), 1995-1997
[ Parent ]
Looking ok
Carmouche has a lot to gain from Caddo. Appears like it will come down to Caddo vs. Bossier.
And a huge chunk comes in
Carmouche doing extremely well in Caddo. He's now up by 1800s votes total with only 22/158 precincts from Caddo in. Still, Bossier has Fleming up big on absentees with 75 precincts to count.
[ Parent ]
Fleming retook the lead but...
It's mainly because of results of counties that were highly favorable to McCain and Kennedy in the general. Nothing really out of Caddo.

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog
Some Fleming parishes in
and now he is up by a few.

Now I check again and Carmouche is up to 51%.

sigh

Winning outside Caddo at the moment
Beinville, DeSoto, Grant, Natchitoches, Red River, Webster.
Really?
If that holds up, Carmouche is probably in. I hope he can pull off a 15%+ win in Caddo as well, as this would assure a Carmouche in.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
now Grant is surprising
since McCain won 81-17 there in the General.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
I'm calling it for Carmouche
he's already leading and just outer Caddo is reporting. Heavily Black inner city precincts haven't come in. Caddo is 3% in and should override Bossier. He's winning in the two other population center, Nachidotches. Most of the outstanding votes, or a slim majority, seem to be coming from his areas.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
like I thought he's gaining
in Nachidotches and Bossier's margins will go down when more inner near Shreveport Bossier City reports, a little bit, he probably needs to make it 59-40 Fleming to win.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
I'm calling ot Carmouche

I'll phone CNN!

[ Parent ]
LOL

[ Parent ]
i'd agree at this point
there just aren't enough votes left in bossier for fleming to win
Cao is winning
with almost nothing in...looks like quite a few republican precincts.
use CNN, it has count breakdowns


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
So does the LA SoS...

[ Parent ]
I like CNN's
better.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
He's probably talking percentage break-downs by Parish
For those who are really lazy with math :D

Your go-to source for great sarcasm
[ Parent ]
yes, and precincts and just everything!


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
LA-02
Great to see some potential history in the making, as the first Vietnamese American may get elected to Congress. Surprising it took this long since America's history with Vietnam is a cornerstone of America's evolution as a nation.

Also, great to see that William "Dollar Bill" Jefferson may be going down. Maybe he could get a job as a financial adviser. You know, advise people the best way to save money is to put it in the freezer?

Before we jump the gun
You realize that the precincts that are disproportionately republican precincts.  
[ Parent ]
Erm yeah
Jefferson always, always does better as the night goes on.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
Some of those precincts right now have 108-1 and 107-6 Jefferson leads. Once more of New Orleans comes in, he should end up winning.
[ Parent ]
yeah i'd be shocked if a democrat loses a +28 seat
Even if they should.
[ Parent ]
Well, Here's To
A corrupt Democrat going down (swigging back Bacardi right now)
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't celebrate yet....

[ Parent ]
Looks Like I Was Right
About Cao. Too bad about LA-04
[ Parent ]
yeah
at least we got rid of dollar bill...
[ Parent ]
Fleming is back ahead

Beauregard is coming in and it's giving Fleming the lead
But that's understandable, just need to make up ground in Caddo which is creeping in.

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog
YIKES!
New data just in...

U. S. Representative, 2nd Congressional District
22 of 492 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
1,023
38.90%
William J. Jefferson, D
-
93
3.54%
Malik Rahim, G
-
33
1.25%
Gregory W. Kahn, L
-
1,481
56.31%
Anh "Joseph" Cao, R
-

U. S. Representative, 4th Congressional District
290 of 640 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
17,965
48.28%
Paul J. Carmouche, D
-
17,940
48.21%
John Fleming, R
-
303
.81%
Gerard J. Bowen, Jr., O
-
1,001
2.69%
Chester T. "Catfish" Kelley, N

We're cutting awfully close...

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

wow 25 votes now
with more votes coming from many of the rural strong holds, including Grant parish.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
Here comes Caddo! 2X
Carmouche seems to be doing fine

Cazayoux
Hopefully if he ends up winning he wont end up like Cazayoux, a one term wonder.
Cazayoux was a different situation
Louisiana almost never boots incumbents and Carmouche is a perfect fit for the 4th district.  Cazayoux was an exception to the rule due mainly to a 3rd party idiot.
[ Parent ]
Only if a liberal independent African American
gets into the race in 2010.  
[ Parent ]
If I were a Republican
I would recruit one. No reason to think they won't try that strategy again.  
[ Parent ]
wow Allen just reported
all at once and gave Carmouche about another one hundred votes to his lead.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
OMG!!!!
Carmouche may really win!

U. S. Representative, 2nd Congressional District
80 of 492 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
3,628
42.33%
William J. Jefferson, D
-
354
4.13%
Malik Rahim, G
-
80
.93%
Gregory W. Kahn, L
-
4,508
52.60%
Anh "Joseph" Cao, R
-

U. S. Representative, 4th Congressional District
397 of 640 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
26,057
49.80%
Paul J. Carmouche, D
-
24,320
46.48%
John Fleming, R
-
410
.78%
Gerard J. Bowen, Jr., O
-
1,540
2.94%
Chester T. "Catfish" Kelley, N

And at least Jefferson is catching up now in LA-02. He may be a corrupt SOB, but I'm a little too scared of seeing a far-right CReep win to root for his loss.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

At about this time of the night
in Primary round one, it looked like Jefferson was going to come in third. I think he'll win tonight.
[ Parent ]
Rodney Alexander
As long as he stays a Democrat, unlike Rodney Alexander, I'll be happy. Also, 2008 is not 2004 and, as Melancon not switching shows, there's no incentive to switch parties.
Why would he switch?
A career in the minority is no fun, as I am sure Jim McCrery would tell you.
[ Parent ]
Hmm
Well it's going to be close, still Caddo vs. Bossier. Hopefully there are enough good precincts left in Caddo.
I'll feel a lot better
When Bossier is all the way in.

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog
WTF?
Jefferson is still getting crushed.
Geaux Cao!!!!!

[ Parent ]
LA-06
I'm comparing precinct-by-precinct results to those from the 2006 runoff (Jefferson vs Carter), and results are mixed but Cao seems to be doing worse than Carter did in general. He's ahead right now, only because the precincts reporting so far are favorable to him.

I'm predicting a Jefferson victory, 59-41. Closer than expected, but unfortunately, he'll probably live... this is a Democrat that we could definitely do better without.

Okay, cancel that
Cao is doing MUCH better across-the-board in Jefferson Parish. He may actually win this one.
[ Parent ]
Analysis of Jefferson Parish
Of the precincts that have reported so far (59/100), ignoring absentees/etc (less basis for comparison)

Jefferson WON these in 2006, 5997-2734. 68.6% of the 2-way vote.
Cao is winning these now, 6752-3985. 62.9% of the 2-way vote.

Based on what I've seen so far, I think Cao is doing ~30% better than Carter did in Jefferson Parish, and ~8% worse than her in Orleans (this isn't really based on statistics...takes too long to add up all the parish data.)

With that, I'm predicting that Jefferson has a slight edge... but its a close race. I'm guessing that this will be a 54-46 Jefferson victory or so.

[ Parent ]
And the SOS website comes in with more numbers right after I post this. Figures...
For a less than robust approach, I'm comparing the first 25 reporting precincts in Orleans to how they did in 2006 (I am NOT adding up 192 precincts of data!)

Cao is winning these, 1068-874. 55% of the two-way vote
Carter won them in 2006, 1141-758. 60% of the two-way vote
Turnout between the two races is roughly constant. But Cao is performing 5% worse than Carter in Orleans.

In Jefferson, Cao is doing 30% better than Carter. But turnout is down ~23% from 2006 numbers.

With these guidelines, I'm predicting the final results to be:
Total 2-party votes in Jefferson (ignoring absentees/provisionals/etc): 13,014. Cao 60.9% (7926), Jefferson 39.1% (5088)
Total 2-party votes in Orleans (same caveats as above): 46287

Cao-43.6% (20,181)
Jefferson - 56.4% (26,106)

Final results:
Cao - 28,107 - 47%
Jefferson - 31194 - 53%

A very close race!

[ Parent ]
Cancel that!
Turnout in Orleans is actually UP from 2006! I reversed the #s!

I'm predicting the final results to be:
Total 2-party votes in Jefferson (ignoring absentees/provisionals/etc): 20,785 Cao 60.9% (12659), Jefferson 39.1% (8127)
Total 2-party votes in Orleans (same caveats as above): 46287

Cao-43.6% (20,181)
Jefferson - 56.4% (26,106)

Final results:
Cao - 32,840 - 49%
Jefferson - 34233 - 51%

A VERY close race!

[ Parent ]
Holy Crap!
Jefferson is still losing.
If Jefferson does loes
I wonder how Charlie Cook will rate that race for 2010.  If he rates it a tossup like he does with even the most endangered incumbents, Im gonna go nuts.  
[ Parent ]
Leans Dem probably
Cook had Tom Feeney as LEans Dem this year even though he was an incumbent.  He does make some exceptions, and Cao would have zero chance of getting re-elected even if he's a complete RINO.
[ Parent ]
Anything less than safe Dem
would be completely unbelievable.  
[ Parent ]
How bad is Cao?
I noticed his website says almost nothing of his stances on the issues.  Would he be tolerable in Congress for 2 years if he did pull off an upset?
If Cao wins?
If Cao wins, he'll probably have to switch parties or else he'll be a one termer.
[ Parent ]
I doubt he could win a Democratic primary
He'd be guaranteed one term no matter what.
[ Parent ]
He wouldn't
No way he could beat a black candidate in a Dem primary.
[ Parent ]
Indeed

[ Parent ]
hmm...
A bit more than 1k for Carmouche... which precincts are left? Are they more favorable to him or less favorable?
83 percent reporting, but Bossier remains out
Which is the biggest GOP stronghold remaining, still a good bit from Caddo which should be helpful though.

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog
[ Parent ]
Bossier has half of the
popular of Caddo though and Fleming is underperforming McCain their by about ten points.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
population, not popular


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Caddo versus Bossier
forutnately Caddo has twice the votes of Bossier and Carmouche is getting a bigger margin their and some of the inner city precincts are always the last to report. Also Desoto is 76% in and Carmouche has a 57-43 lead there. All the rural areas have just come in, Grant, Vernon, Sabine, Carmouche somehow lost Nachidotches parish narrowly. Beaureaguard is almost through coming in and and Fleming won it two to one. I don't see how Fleming can make up a athousand votes. There are just more votes in the outlying Democratic areas than the Republican ones.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Uh oh...
U. S. Representative, 2nd Congressional District
139 of 492 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
7,764
38.73%
William J. Jefferson, D
-
444
2.22%
Malik Rahim, G
-
178
.89%
Gregory W. Kahn, L
-
11,658
58.16%
Anh "Joseph" Cao, R
-

U. S. Representative, 4th Congressional District
446 of 640 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
27,120
49.13%
Paul J. Carmouche, D
-
26,023
47.14%
John Fleming, R
-
439
.80%
Gerard J. Bowen, Jr., O
-
1,621
2.94%
Chester T. "Catfish" Kelley, N

Can we actually lose LA-02 tonight? Even as we may win LA-04? I'm getting worried now.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

Losing LA-02
is not a bad thing.  Jefferson needs to lose so we can get a candidate whose not indicted to serve.
[ Parent ]
Yes, it is...
A seat is a seat. Obviously, Cao is a strong candidate if he can do this well in such a Democratic stronghold. If he wins, there's NO guarantee we'll get this seat back in 2010. That would be one fewer vote for President Obama's agenda.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
You realize this is a majority black district right?
No way Cao keeps in under any circumstances other than this.
[ Parent ]
Think IL-05, 1994, Flanagan
The 65-35 margin Flanagan lost by in 1996 following his fluke 1994 win is probably Cao's BEST possibility in 2010.
[ Parent ]
I dunno...
This IS Louisiana, after all. Politics are are f*cked up. And if the NRCC & the Viet groups dump a sh*tload of money into LA-02 while we get another lame candidate, it may not be as easy as we think. Now I'm not saying we're totally doomed in 2010 if Cao wins, but I don't think this is something we can just laugh off.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
I dont think you understand these districts
Nick Lampson, a pretty good Congressman who beat a write in Republican in the R+15 TX-22, lost by almost 10 points to a nobody Republican in 2008.  
[ Parent ]
Actually it is
This district is insanely democratic and mostly black.  If Cao wins it's because we're running an indicted thug in a low-turnout special election.  Cao has ZERO chance of breaking 40% against any black candidate other than Jefferson.
[ Parent ]
Kerry won 75% in the district I think were fine n/t

[ Parent ]
This is a district where Obama got around 80%
of the vote.  No way in hell Cao ever survives here in a regular turnout election.  
[ Parent ]
That would be quite hilar.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I would pop some bubbly over a Cao win.
Hee hee.
[ Parent ]
69 percent in now
Still leading by 1220. I'm feeling good. Anyone know what recount law is though?
That's a lot of Bossier left...

[ Parent ]
I hate to say it, but a Jefferson win is in our best interests
If he wins, he will have to resign when he is convicted. Then a Dem will win the Special Election
That's what I'm thinking
He's a corrupt scumbag, but better than the alternative.
[ Parent ]
Plus whoever the GOP guy is..
Will be trumpeted by the right wing noise machine to no end, drowing out the possible Carmouche win.
[ Parent ]
Yep...
The GOP would use a Cao win in LA-02 to spin 2008 as a "throw the bums out anti-corruption" win rather than an actual rejection of the GOP platform. And I can guarantee you that the Vietnamese-American political power players (like the ones here in Orange County, CA) from ALL OVER AMERICA will swoop into LA-02 to save Cao's ass in 2010 if he wins tonight. You can bet on a bloody, ugly 2010 election in LA if we lose.

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats
[ Parent ]
Then they will be humiliated.

[ Parent ]
And they'll be wasting their money
Let me put this into some perspective, Nick Lampson lost his bid for re-election by 8 points in a district that is R+15. LA-02 is D+28, beating an indicted incumbent means next to nothing, and Cao, if he wins election will lose badly in 2010, I would bet you $100 right here and now on that.

Your go-to source for great sarcasm
[ Parent ]
Cao will lose badly to any generic black Dem
He would have a tough time breaking 35%.  
[ Parent ]
Any idea if D+28 is still entirely accurate?
The 2nd district did lose a lot of black voters after Katrina.  I'm sure they are still a big majority, but is it really still THAT solidly democratic of a district?
[ Parent ]
As of 2006 (post Katrina)
it's 56% black. No way Obama got less than 65% of the vote there; probably more.  
[ Parent ]
LA-02
Obama won Orleans Parish (which is probably 2/3rds of LA-02) 79-19. He lost Jefferson 63-36, but I'd be willing to bet money that the parts of Jefferson County inside LA-02 have more African Americans than the county as a whole (the district's demographics are very similar to Orleans county, and not so much Jefferson county).

The district is still 56% African American, you know.

Your go-to source for great sarcasm

[ Parent ]
Why?
Losing the one seat temporarily doesn't really mean much (we hold an 80-seat majority in the House right now). Better to be rid of him now and then, in 2010 get a not-so-corrupt Democrat to clean Cao's clock.

Your go-to source for great sarcasm
[ Parent ]
Well, Cao would be utterly irrelevant
with the kind of majority we have in the House. There aren't going to be any veto-override votes.  
[ Parent ]
Exactly
I'd rather lose a seat than lose credibility.
[ Parent ]
Well that's not good
Just mostly Bossier left to report and a 2,000 vote lead. It could go either way.
Is Bossier THAT conservative
In the first 10 precincts of 75 in we're down 1,400 votes there.  If we lose that parish by that big of a margin Carmouch is gonna lose by a few thousand votes.  Hope that trend doesn't continue.
[ Parent ]
What's left:
About 30 precincts in Caddo, 65 in Bossier, and a dozen in DeSoto where Carmouche is leading.

It's going to be close.

Their are a lot more voters in
Caddo, and you should see some of the more Democratic, more black inner Bossier City precincts start coming in and cutting Fleming's lead. But, like I said, Bossier Parish has 98 people, Caddo has 252,000.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
I have a bad feeling...
About 2.3k lead but A LOT of Bossier left...
98,000 people
in Bossier, 252,000 in Caddo. 2.5:1.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Still 27 precincts left in Caddo
Are they in Shreveport?
yeha, last areas to report are inner city


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
That should bring a good yield

[ Parent ]
Maybe some inner city left but...
most of Caddo left are northern villages.
[ Parent ]
this is where
Carmouche's long record should come in handy. Voter familiarity should help him eck out victories there.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Feeling better now
Big Bossier batch of precincts didn't hurt Carmouche too much.
new the few heavily black precincts
in Bossier City would start coming in now, predicted it above.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
look peopel,
Carmouche just picked up 7% in Bossier. I said earlier he'd have to hold Fleming to 59% to win, well Fleming's at 59%, a 13% point underperformance of McCain.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Linear projection says...
Fleming wins by 4,500 votes. This is, of course, dependent on the remaining Bossier precincts staying the way they are.

That said, Fleming is getting 68-69% in Bossier now, and McCain got 71%. Hopefully, the remaining Bossier precincts will be a little friendlier.

More of the Bossier votes came in
I too had Fleming winning by many thousands of votes before that. After that I have Carmouche up by 1,800 votes.
[ Parent ]
Hold on to your hats...
This is what is left-

Caddo- Carmouche up 58-38%- 87% in (13% out)
DeSoto- Carmouche up 57-39%- 76%in (24% out)

Bossier- Fleming up 66-29%- 13% in (87% out)
Beauregard- Fleming up 66-31%- 98% in (2% out)

Remaining Caddo precincts
Mostly northern villages are left (precincts 139-157).

http://www.shreveporttimes.com...

The rest of Caddo
will cancel out Bossier, which is nearly half in.  
[ Parent ]
Maybe
Some of those towns are 75% white, are they Democratic?
[ Parent ]
inner city Shreveport
is what hasn't come in yet.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Where do you see that?
http://www.shreveporttimes.com...

From the LA Sos, precincts 139-157 are out. That mostly composes the towns of Rodessa, Oil City, Belcher, several Caddo Fire Districts (?), and several schools (are those in Shreveport?).

[ Parent ]
the schools I think are


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Done some back of the envelope math
Tells me that with only 32 precincts in Bossier in and 1 in Beauregard and 131 in Caddo, that Fleming will net around 786 votes. Carmouche is up 2.5K, with no provisional ballots in.  
I'm calling it for Carmouche
Fleming would have to win 67-70% of the remaining precints to hit he magic 50%. Not.Gonna.Happen!!Carmouche wins by just under 5k votes.

On the other hand, what if LA-2 elects its first Republican Congressman since Reconstruction? The GOP would take away a nagging Democratic problem by beating a hapless corrupt democrat...I'm actually ok with this result.

On another note..does anyone know how to post excel tables in Daily kos?

[ Parent ]
My bad
meant just over 500 votes.  
[ Parent ]
Most of Caddo now in
96% to be exact.
On the other hand, 43% of Bossier is in now and Fleming is now only up 59-36%

Photo finish Melancon circa '04 style.

Actually the 96% is in
DeSoto.

Still stuck at 83% in Caddo.

[ Parent ]
The last 22 Bossier precincts were not so bad
Mouche lost the first 10 by 1400 but these last 22 by only about 200. Still have those Caddo 27 as an ace in the stretch run!
should gain only a
few hundred left, but I think some of Shreveport proper still has to report.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Gawd I hate how polarized LA is
Precincts are either 85-15 republican or 95-5 democratic.  Not a lot of in-between.  The old south at it's finest.
I hate it too.
You can tell how segregated it is. It's so apparent what precincts are white/black.  
[ Parent ]
By comparison
My precinct in Central Florida, suburban middle-class and almost 100% white and went for Obama by about a dozen votes.  Voter registration in my precinct is roughly 50/50 between parties.  That's the difference between Florida and the "old south."
[ Parent ]
Yup

[ Parent ]
Not to say
Blacks still vote insanely democratic.  One inner-city Daytona Beach precinct that went something like 356-1 for Obama.  I bet that one McCain supporter got a lot of shit in his neighborhood.
[ Parent ]
It's never insane...
...to vote Democratic! :)
[ Parent ]
heh

[ Parent ]
Yeah
Central Florida has definitely shifted beyond traditional southern politics, at least in most areas.
[ Parent ]
Northwest Florida is all they have left
The Panhandle and a few rural white counties in Central Florida are really what remains of the old south in Florida.  Central Florida and South Florida have swung dramatically in our favor.
[ Parent ]
It's insane
I don't understand how we can be so polarized by politics that a precinct can be 95% for one party, that's when you know something is wrong in this country.
[ Parent ]
Forget it Jack, it's the deep south. . .

[ Parent ]
There's worse.
Some precincts are giving no votes at all to one candidate.

Ex: Jefferson Parish's K022 gave 96 votes to Jefferson, and 1 vote to the Green party candidate.
Same parish's 107 and 108 precincts gave 100% of votes to Jefferson (17 and 83 respectively) THAT'S the sign that something is wrong in this country!

[ Parent ]
The Bossier that is coming is pretty
Carmouche friendly. No by linear projection, only a net gain of 300 for Fleming (total outstanding precincts).
Remaining Caddo Precincts....
were 60% McCain on Election Day.

Carmouche is outperforming Obama by roughly 9%. Remaining precincts should be a wash.

Remaining Bossier precincts...
were 74.24% McCain on Election Day.

Carmouche is outperforming Obama by roughly 10.4%. Even so, I'm pessimistic.

[ Parent ]
If what your saying pans out
than that means it's going to be a nail biter.  
[ Parent ]
All of Desoto
'mouche won it 52-43%.

Also 51% of Bossier and holding steady at 59-36%.

53-42% rather

[ Parent ]
Better than Landrieu in Desoto n/t
[ Parent ]
Everything in but 24 Caddo and 37 Bossier
the last 28 Bossier only hurt us by 400 votes and we are up 1800.  If the Caddo 24 can offset the Bossier 37 we can be OK here!
What's the deal in Bossier?
Trying to see what they need to give Fleming?

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog
[ Parent ]
runoff?
will there be a run-off if no one gets 50%
No

[ Parent ]
RUnoff
good!
[ Parent ]
No
Considering this is something like the 8th run-off this year for Louisiana it's probably enough.
[ Parent ]
PHEW!
U. S. Representative, 2nd Congressional District
265 of 492 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
15,280
43.21%
William J. Jefferson, D
-
1,043
2.95%
Malik Rahim, G
-
307
.87%
Gregory W. Kahn, L
-
18,733
52.97%
Anh "Joseph" Cao, R
-

U. S. Representative, 4th Congressional District
579 of 640 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
39,914
49.08%
Paul J. Carmouche, D
-
38,061
46.80%
John Fleming, R
-
601
.74%
Gerard J. Bowen, Jr., O
-
2,747
3.38%
Chester T. "Catfish" Kelley, N

2 for 2, baby! Carmouche is now leading by over 1800 votes. Meanwhile, Jefferson's now within 10% with about 60% of precincts left to report. We may just win both LA races! :-)

C4O Democrats: A Place for All Democrats

Funny
Carmouche won Webster County, whose parish seat is Minden, where Fleming is from. So Fleming just lost his political base, similar territory to the northern Caddo precincts still left, plus several inner city ones.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
from your analysis the remaining precincts look good for the
MOUCHE!
[ Parent ]
For the record
You cannot stop the mouche, you can only hope to contain him.  The "mouche" however should not be confused with the "stache", Congressman Childers of MS-01.
[ Parent ]
LOL stop that, I just spit my coffee onto the screen!

[ Parent ]
back of envelope
Before last batch of Cappo just came in.

Final numbers if percentages stay the same in the last two counties:

Carmouche 46037
Fleming 44882

(note more came in in Cappo, so I'll have to run again)

so Fleming would have to improve
by like ten to fifteen points in the remaining Bossier precincts while hoping the incoming Caddo wons are a flop to have any shot?

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
update with new Cappo numbers
final prediction:  Carmouche 46304
Fleming 45127
[ Parent ]
Jefferson County?
Is that the less democratic parish in the 2nd?  It's mostly in with most of the votes left from Orleans.
Yep
Landrieu got 52% in Jefferson, got 84% in Orleans.  
[ Parent ]
even that was practically unheard of for a Democrat
main reason she won.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Linear Projection:
Carmouche by 2,200 - if parishes stay the same.

Caveats:

-outstanding Bossier precincts 2.22% more Republican than parish as whole.
-outstanding Caddo precincts 19.22% more Republican than parish as whole.

well, Carmouche
has been carrying the Republican areas of Caddo all night.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Those last Caddo parishes were a wash.
Taking the 2.22% Bossier number, Fleming by 560 votes. Assuming Bossier stands still, Carmouche by 110 votes.

Anyone's guess...

[ Parent ]
Just Bossier left
Those last Shreveport precincts were indeed nothing to write home about, basically just Republican towns.
Rather Caddo precincts*

[ Parent ]
so basically Fleming has
to pick up 1,800 votes. Man has Carmouche underperformed in Nachidothces, Bienville, and Red River. Could come back to haunt him.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Prediction from analysis: 53-47 Jefferson victory
See Here
Bossier is sure taking its sweet time.
Now I know what a Republican in Illinois feels like.
Caddo
Caddo 100% in  
Linear Projection
says that Fleming get 1750 more votes in Bossier. That leaves Carmouche up by only 109 votes!
Talk about close
Are there provisional ballots in this thing?
No provisional ballots counted yet
That will certainly help Carmouche.  
[ Parent ]
Or a Republican in Missouri/ Virginia

Bossier
Basically half the precincts of Bossier are in.  If you double the current numbers, Carmouche's final lead will be less than 100.

This will be close!

All precincts in, Fleming is in the lead
by 356 votes
Fleming "wins" by 350 votes...
Provisional votes to the rescue?????????
OK, were fucked
They held Bossier and fixed it up so Fleming has a 400 vote lead.  
Bossier precincts...
Including Senate and Presidential data, the outstanding precincts seem to be 1.80% more Republican than the parish as a whole.

Given a straight linear projection, Carmouche by 109.
Using the 1.80% number, Fleming by 431.

Carmouche can only hold if the outstanding precincts are 0.37% more Republican than the parish as a whole.

He needs 37.97% of the remaining 2-party vote.

OH Fuck! we lost!!!!

LA-02 is still looking bad too

Were finished
Not only did we not pick up LA-04, but we actually lost LA-02.  No we will only hold one seat in the Louisiana delegation.  Get me a fucking drink.  
[ Parent ]
???
Who says we lost the second (though it would be a good riddance).  
[ Parent ]
Its gone
Virtually no movement there with only about 90 precincts left to report.  
[ Parent ]
Damn. Fleming won.

If we lose both of these....
We'd be hearing A LOT of crowing for the next few months.
So I'd personally would rather see Jefferson win to be honest, if it would lessen the noise.
Katrina is still killing us in LA.

If Kennedy had not been such a bad candidate
The Republicans might have picked up the senate seat.
LA-04: Results Thread | 244 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

Talk to your supporters, not tech support. Campaign Engine is the powerful, affordable Progressive Campaign Software.

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Contributing Editor: Crisitunity

SSP's Twitter Feed

SSP on Facebook

SSP's Frappr Map

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

Subscribe to SSP's RSS feed: Subscribe via FeedBurner

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

Partisan Voting Index

House Open Seat Watch

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

2010 Political Calendar

SSP Race Ratings

Senate Race Ratings

Gubernatorial Race Ratings

House Vulnerability Index

Blogroll

Daily Kos
DemConWatch
DLCC Blog
Five Thirty Eight
From The Roots (DSCC)
Hotline On Call
Kicking Ass (DNC)
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Project 2010 (DGA)
The Next Hurrah
Senate Guru
The Stakeholder (DCCC)
The Thicket (NCSL)
Powered by: SoapBlox