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PA-Sen: Specter Vulnerable Against Matthews

by: Crisitunity

Thu Dec 04, 2008 at 1:16 PM EST


Rasmussen (12/2, likely voters)

Chris Matthews (D): 43
Arlen Specter (R-inc): 46
(MoE: ±4.5%)

That object looming in Arlen Specter's rearview mirror may in fact be as large as it appears... it's Tweety's giant head. The bluening of Pennsylvania seems to be continuing unabated, as Rasmussen's first look at the 2010 senate race in Pennsylvania sees 28-year veteran Specter looking surprisingly weak against Matthews, a figure many would describe as 'polarizing.' Specter has an overall 60% favorability in the poll, but as much as Democrats seem willing to respect him (he gets a 48% favorable among Democrats, while only a 70% favorable among Republicans), they still seem to be in a 2006-08 mindset where they'd just rather vote for a Dem.

The 68 78-year-old Specter can't be looking forward to a double gauntlet of Pat Toomey in the primary and now this. (Speaking of which, maybe Rasmussen should try polling the Specter vs. Toomey matchup.) For that matter, maybe Rasmussen should try polling some other Democrats (starting with Allyson Schwartz), in case the Chris Matthews noise turns out to be bluster.

Politico reports today that, on the one hand, Matthews is discussing the possibility of leaving MSNBC and relocating to Pennsylvania to focus on the race. But on the other hand, NBC insiders think it's a ploy to renegotiate his contract, which expires in 2009. Right now, a renegotiation is not anticipated to be as rich as his current $5 million per year (and which will leave him lagging way behind fellow pundit Keith Olbermann)... threatening to run for Senate instead of jumping to another network is kind of a new wrinkle in the usual pattern, though.

UPDATE by Diego Infierno: Joe Sestak has withdrawn his name from consideration.
Crisitunity :: PA-Sen: Specter Vulnerable Against Matthews
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PA-Sen: Specter Vulnerable Against Matthews | 61 comments
That's very surprising to me
but I think it suggests that we need to find a stronger candidate than Matthews. I have little doubt that we will.
pa-sen
Schwartz, Sestak or Murphy?  Those three names pop up a lot, no idea if any of them are actually seriously considering it.
[ Parent ]
Schwartz would be my choice
but I would be fine with any of the above. (I would worry that Murphy sounds a little too Philadelphia, but I wouldn't worry too much).
[ Parent ]
Specter himself is from Philly
So I wouldn't worry about it much at all.
[ Parent ]
But Specter is a Republican
and he doesn't have a Philly accent.

Yes, there are places where that would matter.  

[ Parent ]
RE: Schwartz
I agree.  I would rather have Schwartz running, as well.  Yes, Sestak would be fine, too.  

I have no problem with Murphy running.  I simply would prefer that seat to not be open in 2010, as it is the least Democratic of the 5 seats would hold in the area.  

I would rather have Murphy running as an incumbent, and spend less money on that race - maybe finally knocking out Gerlach - and have Schwartz run, who not only is a solidly progressive Democrat, she also represents a very safe district that also represents a large slice of suburban territory.

She would also be the only who would really be challenging Specter in his own home turf.

As for sounding too Phillyish,  I don't think Scwartz sounds less so than Murphy.  Not that I care.  I think that would be an argument for Sestak, who one could say that his military background might help in other sections of the commonwealth.

However, Schwartz would be my own choice, and if she does run, I'll be voting for her in the primary.  

[ Parent ]
The main reason I'd go for Schwartz
is that she's been preparing for this run for ages, she knows the terrain, and she can raise the money. One thing I'm sorry about is that Hillary Clinton won't be available as an advocate. Ed Rendell will have to do, but he won't campaign against Specter. I agree that Schwartz's Montco base will be really important.

And as for the accent thing: Murphy sounds every bit the son of a Philly cop and former Vet security guard that he is. They'll notice in Pittsburgh. Allyson, OTOH, is from New York, but she has a fairly neutral accent.

As for Gerlach. . .he still has a bulls eye on his back. That was one of the biggest recruiting failures of the season.  

[ Parent ]
Do you really think voters are that shallow?
Vote against him because his accent is from a different part of the state?
[ Parent ]
Well, they might or might not
but it's an issue to consider.
[ Parent ]
Specter is 78
Wikipedia reports Arlen was born February 12, 1930.  He'll be 80 in time for the slugfest.
Ooops, thanks
They shouldn't put those numbers so close together on the keyboard.
[ Parent ]
Two polls now
40-27, and 46-43.  What they clearly agree upon is that Specter is unbelievably weak.  If we run someone like Sestak or Schwarz the margins in Southeast PA will be incredible and we should win this.  With Matthews, who knows.
Chris Matthews will be a Senator when hell freezes over
I really don't want him to run because he would be an embarrassment, even if he polls competitive with Arlen Specter. With that said, he won't win the Democratic primary. Anything he said on Hardball can be used against him in campaign commercials, and it would be very effective. He heaped praise on George Bush and other Republicans when it was popular, and that won't look good in 2010.
Schwartz
Isn't her district likely to be carved up?  That might provide some motivation.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
No
Unless PA loses two seats, the seat that's going away will be in the west.  
[ Parent ]
Are We Serious?
Chris Matthews is literally three points behind Specter. Yet I'm still not convinced he'll beat the long time serving Republican incumbent. The last media personality the party ran, Al Franken, is currently hanging onto hopes a recount could turn the tide in his favour, or possibly have the U.S Senate itself decide the election.

I don't want to relive that experience. Pennsylvania has such a talented crop of political heavyweights, why the hell are they even considering running a carpetbagger, loud mouthed windbag like Chris Matthews?

Please, Keystone State, think about this!

My Can Of Contemplation is now open to all for perusal.

Democrats aren't considering Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews is the one doing the considering. And he won't win a Democratic primary.
[ Parent ]
Exactly

[ Parent ]
Thank you!
   There are such things as primaries.  I'm skeptical that Matthews could win a primary.  Since when does a voter want a beltway blabber for a senator?  The senator has to go to DC first for that to happen.

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy
[ Parent ]
at least franken
is a solid liberal.
[ Parent ]
I want to see a primary poll
I don't think Matthews breaks 40% in a two person race, or 25% in a three way race. The misogyny alone will likely sink him, and the voting for Bush, lack of any notable Pennsylvania ties in the last thirty years and general incoherence will just make his defeat embarassing.

I could see Michael Doyle of PA-14 being a viable candidate (he'd probably clear up in Pittsburgh and environs, which would get him through a primary with two Philly candidates). He's anti-abortion, though, so I personally wouldn't favour it. I could also see Bob Brady making a go of it, although I think most of his congressional colleagues would beat him in the primary.

Otherwise, it's kind of depressing how the congressmen being talked about are all recent entrants to the House. Shows how much Pennsylvania has been a disappointment in the past.

Doyle and Brady won't try
and they're losers statewide.  
[ Parent ]
How so?
Brady, I could see losing statewide.

But standard Democratic turnout in the SE combined with an 80s performance in the SW would surely be good enough for Doyle to win.

[ Parent ]
I am certain that Specter would beat Doyle
in the Philly suburbs.  
[ Parent ]
not only what andgarden said,
but Doyle is pretty old and has been around forever. And inner city Philapdelphia congressman don't play well statewide and don't have much a swingish political base to build off of.

That being said I'm crossing my fingers that Schwartz runs for Governor. I think Corbett doesn't have a chance in hell of winning. It'll be a repeat of Rendell's first run with huge margins in Philly and its suburbs in Montgomery, Bucks, Delaware, and Chester, along with traditional Democrat strongholds in the state, (like Lackawanna, Allegheny and Erie), carry that day in the end by a narrow 3-5 point margin. Schwartz would probably be the best candidate statewide and I think it would be easier for her to run for Governor.

So, all that being said I support Patrick Murphy for Senate, not only is he a young progressive with a great background, he has a solid base in populous Bucks, the least Democratic of Philadelphia's outer suburbs. I think Murphy would win the region big and would do well in southeast and southwest Pennsylvania.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Doyle is from Pittsburgh
which is even worse. Not to worry: he won't run.

I still think Schwartz is running for Senate, not Governor.

[ Parent ]
how is that even worse?


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Pittsburgh is dying
and the population base is in the east.  
[ Parent ]
I'm just certain Schwartz is not
running for Senate. The Governorship is wide open while the Senate race is far less certain. She's a smart politician and I think she was assured the race when she suddenly stepped aside in the 2004, (after raising 5 million dollars), Treasurers race, letting Bob Casey win it. Word was Rendell personally convinced her to run for the 13th, sounds like setting up a successor to me.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
In 2004, the only person in PA
who could have beaten Bob Casey in a Democratic primary was Ed Rendell. And he already did that in 2002!

No, Hoeffel went after Specter (probably a mistake considering how poorly he performed in PA-13), and Schwartz dove in for Congress.

It could be that Schwartz wants to run for Governor, but it isn't likely because of any promises made in 2004.

[ Parent ]
Doyle's only 55
You might be thinking of William Coyne, who used to represent the 14th and is pretty old (Coyne stood down rather than face Doyle when they got smooshed together in the 2002 redistricting).

I don't really like Doyle for his district (too moderate for a D+22, although granted there are a lot of socially conservative elderly Catholic Dems in Pittsburgh), but he's got the pro-life pro-labor anti-war thing going for him that might make him an easy sell to the so-called Casey Democrats, a good route for statewide victory. On the other hand, look how well Ron Klink did against Santorum (probably the last time a little-known Pittsburgh-area pro-life representative ran statewide)... and Obama showed you can pretty much write off southwestern collar counties and still win big by running up the score in the Philly burbs (and even Harrisburg and Lancaster) instead.

[ Parent ]
Exactly
so long as you can hold your own in Scranton, Erie, and Pittsburgh.

Schwartz is the one for this race, especially if Specter loses his primary.

[ Parent ]
nope, still not buying that
Murphy is the more conviently located of our congressman and he's ran two good campaigns against strong Republicans in what used to be a solidly Republican district.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Patrick Murphy is great
One of my favorite congressmen, defiantly has my support if he runs.

Schwartz is great as well. I just I really think that Patrick Murphy is an excellent representative and think he has potential to be a Presidential Candidate some day.

Hopefully one runs for governor and one runs for Senate.

This isn't a state where we need to resort to Celebrities to win, this isn't Oklahoma, Chris Matthews should not be the front runner for this race.

We all saw what happen with Franken when we tried this crap last cycle.

[ Parent ]
Imagine
how others will fair if Matthews is only 3% down.
OMG are we actually talking about Chris Matthews as a serious challenger?
I will bank my apartment, car, and no sex for 2 years that Arlen or any GOPer including Toomey wins if Matthews is the Dem candidate.

agreed on specter
but i don't know about toomey.  i just don't see the club for growth president winning a state obama won by double digits... no matter how much the democrat sucks.
[ Parent ]
Never underestimate the freakshow that is CM.
Goebbels could get 40% against him.
[ Parent ]
Matthews isn't the best candidate
but I don't imagine him being that controversial to anyone outside of the far left. I've watched his show for years and never heard a statement that outraged me or was jsut crazy. Franken might beat Coleman in a less Democratic state, (presidential wise), and he wrote softcore porn and starred on some pretty lewd comedy acts. I think Matthews could beat Toomey, especially if he's only three points down from Specter. But I would like a real democrat from Pennsylvania to run.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
I don't know if I'm sure enough about anything,
especially not this, to bank sex for 2 years on it.
[ Parent ]
Whoa
If Matthews is runnign that clsoe to Specter it makes me think serious candidates liek Sestak, Schwartz, etc. might actually be ahead.
I've got my fingers crossed
that Schwartz runs for Governor. After all that what she was preparing for when she decided to run agaisnt Bob Casey in the 2004 primary for state treasurer, raising 5 million in just a few months before she was convinced to run for Hoeffels seat, which has had some close open seat elections. She raised a total of 7 million for the house seat, more than any other candidate that year. She has the perfect profile for a statewide run for governor and its my gut feeling that that's what she's wanted for sometime.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Here's your problem
Schwartz wanted to be in Congress more: she ran in a contested primary for the 13th district in 2004, and didn't win it by much. (Joe Torsella, incidentally, is a good guy and would have made a good Congressman).
[ Parent ]
I made this point earlier
Rendell and other Democratic party leaders talked her out of running for Casey and instead run for the 13th, presumably also with the promise that she would have the party establishment backing for the open Governor's race in 2010. You are too ready to hand off a Democratic state's governor ship to Republican in a nice little box with a pretty little bow on top.

I think Schwartz should run and make very young Pittsburgh mayor Luke Ravenstahl her Lieutenant Governor, that way she gets a base in Southwestern Pennsylvania too. She gets her two terms, and Ravenstahl gets groomed a little for a future run in 2018 at the age of 38. Then I assume he would eventually run for whatever senate came open first.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Thing to remember about early polling numbers...
...is they strongly reflect name ID.  Governors for example always rock very early polling.  The most important thing however to look at is negatives. And even then in the case of someone like Matthews who is known but only superficially known you still have to look at the high potential for those negatives to rise.

Matthews ia very personable and engaging.  He is one of those folks who just enjoys talking with people and he'd make a great campaigner.  I have no doubt if you put him into a room of senior citizens he could charm them.

But part of his shtick as a host is being a provacateur.  He takes positions just to get his guests to react.  Or sometimes seemingly just because he enjoys the sound of his own voice.  He has as much if not more statements than Franken waiting to be mined by the opposition.

He's better than some people we've thrown at Specter but we certainly have people on the Democratic deck (paging Ed Rendell) who'd do FAR stronger and present fewer risks.

Particularly since I could easily see this scenario playing out.  Specter bows out, Tom Ridge comes in.

Tom Ridge is not much younger than
Specter and I feel that Toomey would primary him too, as he's pro-choice, pro-stem cell research, and an all around moderate.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Ya, doubt Ridge could win a primary
It's very unlikely that Ridge could win a contested primary with his social views.  The republican voters in PA have shifted strongly right since he was last elected Governor.
[ Parent ]
Feel free to yell at me for stating this...
Overall I kind of like Arlen.  While I'm a diehard Democrat, he one the 5 or so Republican Senators that I respect.  I only remember one time being truly mad at him, and that goes back to the line of questioning concerning Anita Hill in the Clarence Thomas hearings for Supreme Court Justice.  

He's shown signs of working with Democrats in some progressive causes, and he generally appears to be pro-choice.  He also did not vote "yea" in the Clinton impeachment trial.  I think he voted something like "not proven", but his vote was cast as "nay".

Don't get me wrong, I'd vote for a strong Democrat over Specter, but Specter all in all has not been an awful Senator.  

That's why the Club for Growth
will go after him.  
[ Parent ]
That's a big problem for the GOP
The GOP loves these litmus testing for their caucus.  It wasn't that long ago when the GOP had some solid senators that were (a) moderate and (b) didn't try to prevent progress for political gain.  I have a lot of respect for the guys like Chafee (both John and Lincoln), Jeffords, John Warner, Dick Lugar, and Chuck Hagel that were willing to stand up to the brass of their party.  Of course, the only guy I listed that will be in the senate next year is Lugar, and he won't be there forever.  Even on the next tier of okay GOPers, they are not nearly as bad at the lunatics that have taken over the party.  I'd throw in guys like Bob Dole (not his wife, who's awful), McCain (before he ran for Prez in 2008), Lindsey Graham (will work with Dems on certain issues) and Specter.
[ Parent ]
You mean the Club for Growing the Democratic party? n/t

[ Parent ]
I I didn't know better....
...I would say the CfG is a front organization for the Democratic Party, just like the DLC is a front for the Republican Party within the Demcratic Party.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Don't forget Robert Bork.
He and Bob Packwood were the first two Republicans to openly oppose the nomination.
[ Parent ]
That's right
Thanks for reminding me.  Packwood was a good senator...too bad that he had some behavioral issues with women.  The GOP would be better if they had guys like Packwood with him.  I think Packwood was the first GOPer (may be the only one) against the first Persian Gulf War.
[ Parent ]
Wrong Oregonian, I think
Mark Hatfield opposed the war (as he did with Vietnam; he's a Quaker). If I remember correctly, Packwood voted to authorize, but then publicly said he felt sandbagged afterwards when Bush I started bombing right away instead of using the authorization as a diplomatic cudgel (a la Hillary, Biden, etc. with Gulf War II). But, yeah, I'm sure both Hatfield and Packwood are pretty dismayed by what the GOP (and especially the Oregon GOP) have turned into.
[ Parent ]
You are right
It was Hatfield.  He would be tarred and feathered by the current GOP.  Packwood was not as hawkish as (like you said), but he did vote for authorization of the first war.

Thanks!

[ Parent ]
The Magic Bullet nonsense disqualifies him in my book
But I guess that should be obvious from my screen name! :)
[ Parent ]
I lost a lot of respect for him under Bush...
...he was great at issuing the right press release but opposed any follow through.  Of course you could say the same thing for many Democrats.  Lincoln Chafee raised a good point in his autobiography when he called out the Democrats who were far more weak kneed than he was.
[ Parent ]
FUCK this.
   I will not support Chris Matthews.  I don't care what any poll says.  I will fight for whoever is challenging him in the primary.

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy
Specter's health
Remember that Arlen Specter has had a recurrence of Hodgins Disease in less than four years.  The prognosis for men over 40 years old  with his stage III Hodgins is not good. Democrats better start thinking about this seat right now as Governor Rendell may make an appointment BEFORE the 2010 election.  And my bet is that he will NOT appoint Cris Matthews.
I like Specter but he is too old...
REALIST  
Ain't no fucking way Chris Matthews
will be a Senator from PA. Maybe he is trying to muscle his way in but if he is the Dem nominee, expect the Republicans to get Jim Gerlach or some top pol to whack him. If Matthews doensn't run or actually loses and Specter retires, I still expect Jim Gerlach or Charlie Dent to make the run; Dems should go with Patrick Murphy or even Ed Rendell or another statewide office holder. Matthews would throw the seat away in the Philly suburbs where elections are won or lost in PA.  
PA-Sen: Specter Vulnerable Against Matthews | 61 comments

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