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CA-31: Becerra Offered U.S. Trade Representative

by: Crisitunity

Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 7:06 PM EST

Add one more to the list of potential Democratic open seats in the House to be filled by special election soon: CA-31 in downtown Los Angeles. Xavier Becerra, House member since 1992, has, in something of a surprise pick, been asked by the Obama administration to be U.S. Trade Representative. (Anonymous sources seem to conflict over whether or not he has already accepted.)

A vacancy in the Fightin' 31st will not pose much of a threat; it's D+30 and 70% Hispanic. State Senator Gilbert Cedillo (SD-22) seems to overlap much of this same turf, but this is also the turf of former Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez (AD-46), who was just term-limited out of his Assembly position and may well be looking for something new to do.

If anything, the interesting fight over the musical chairs will be in the House leadership, where Becerra was just elected vice chair of the Democratic caucus, the #5 role on the leadership totem pole, possibly meaning more reshuffling involving Chris Van Hollen ditching the DCCC to become vice-chair, or perhaps Debbie Wasserman Schultz leapfrogging into the job, or perhaps another challenge by Marcy Kaptur (who was defeated by Becerra for the job several weeks ago).

Crisitunity :: CA-31: Becerra Offered U.S. Trade Representative

Tags: CA-31, Xavier Becerra, 2010 House Open Seat Watch, (All Tags)

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CA-31: Becerra Offered U.S. Trade Representative | 11 comments

If Becerra Leaves Congress...

City Council President Eric Garcetti is likely to become one of the best members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

by: downwithtyranny @ Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 19:00:27 PM CST

by: you @ soon

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Could an Anglo

make it through the primary in this district, though? (Maybe, to answer my own question, in a Steve Cohen-type scenario where a half-dozen Latino candidates all wind up canceling each other out.)

by: Crisitunity @ Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 19:13:05 PM CST

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probably not in that district

I can't think of any prominent Anglos in that area. I think it is fair to say that there is at least a 98% chance that Becerra would be replaced by a Latino Democrat. The other 2% would more likely be an Asian-American rather than an Anglo. I think the more important question is whether he is succeeded by a progressive or by a "business Democrat".
I live a ways from that district (in the San Fernando Valley, not the San Gabriel Valley) so I'm not sure exactly which communities are in that district and who are the state legislators from there. One thing is for sure; there will be many who will be interested in a safe seat in Congress with no term limits. I think this may trigger another special election, for whichever Assembly or Senate seat is vacated by the winner of the House seat.

by: Zack from the SFV @ Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 22:02:31 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Here's a map

of the district. It's a dog-leg that avoids true downtown (which is in the 34th) but includes Koreatown, and the rest of that nondescript area west of downtown but east of Western Ave. which is a really varied racial tapestry, so yeah, it's possible a non-Anglo non-Latino candidate could sneak through a divided field. Anyway, the district starts up by Occidental College, swings around west to Hollywood (but misses Silver Lake and Echo Park, which apparently is where Garcetti lives... although that shouldn't stop you from running where you want; just ask Tom McClintock or Cindy Sheehan), and ends up in the northern end of South Central where USC is.

by: Crisitunity @ Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 23:11:18 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Rocky Delgadillo maybe?

by: zac @ Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 20:17:13 PM CST

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I supported him for state AG

I would love to see him in Congress.

by: RandySF @ Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 20:33:39 PM CST

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by: you @ soon

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Rocky is seriously damaged goods

He ain't getting elected to anything soon. His scandals were enough so that he couldn't have been reelected as L.A. City Attorney (though I think he was termed out anyway) let alone get a major promotion.

by: Zack from the SFV @ Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 22:06:15 PM CST

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His race would obviously be a challenge

But Eric Garcetti would be a strong candidate, has won in a majority hispanic district before and would be one of the best congresspeople in the country. He's so awesome I'd consider going to probably my least favorite city in the country (LA) to campaign for him. He's brilliant, progressive and young. I could see him as president someday.

by: Populista @ Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 22:50:51 PM CST

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Eric Garcetti has an Italian name but is

of Mexican-American ancestry. I thought the district was farther east, more into the SGV. (I must have been thinking of Hilda Solis' district.) He would be a really good choice.

by: Zack from the SFV @ Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 23:21:49 PM CST

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L.A. Politicians

I'm not sure if Garcetti lives in Congressional district 31 (Becerra) or 33 (Diane Watson). The bio on his website says he lives in Echo Park, which would probably place him in Becerra's district. There's a little bit of overlap between his 13th council district and Diane Watson's 33rd Congressional district, but more overlap in that area between the 13th Council District and the 31st Congressional district.

I agree he'd make a great Congressman. His father is Mexican-American, though most people don't know it. I think he's a good enough politician to win in a heavily-Latino district, though.

Rockard J. Delgadillo, however, isn't going to get elected to much of anything in the near future unless he can make people forget the various scandals of recent years, but I don't really see that happening.

Fabian Nunez, on the other hand, has a big problem at home --- his son Esteban was arrested for murder today.

by: adamnvillani @ Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 01:30:52 AM CST

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Xavier

I hope Becerra runs for something statewide one day. He was a Dodd supporter (as was I) in the primary season and I think he is a very qualified representative who would serve the state of California well.

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.

by: ModerateIADem @ Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 01:35:48 AM CST

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CA-31: Becerra Offered U.S. Trade Representative | 11 comments