GA-Sen: Seventh Straight Poll Has Martin Trailing

by: DavidNYC

Wed Nov 26, 2008 at 6:35 PM EST

Jim Martin (D): 46 (45)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 52 (51)
Undecided: 2 (4)
(MoE: ±4%)

The problem for Jim Martin is that, for him to win, every single poll of the run-off needs to be wrong:

It is possible, of course, since everyone seems to be struggling in terms of projecting turnout (as you might expect with a one-off election like this). But I should point out that the first-round polls were pretty good (they had Saxby up four in aggregate, while his final margin was three).

Martin does have a 56-44 lead among early voters. Unfortunately, that's rather similar to his 56-39 lead with early voters in the final R2K poll before Nov. 4th - clearly, it seems, all of the libertarian's support migrated to Saxby. However, if election day turnout among Republicans is weak, there's a chance this early vote might carry Martin, despite the much lower early African American turnout. Interestingly, it looks like a greater proportion of likely voters have voted early this time - 28% vs. 12% in that late October poll.

We'll know soon enough.